Scheduling satellite-based SAR acquisition for sequential assimilation of water level observations into flood modelling

Satellite-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has proved useful for obtaining information on flood extent, which, when intersected with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the floodplain, provides water level observations that can be assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to decrease forecast uncertainty. With an increasing number of operational satellites with SAR capability, information on the relationship between satellite first visit and revisit times and forecast performance is required to optimise the operational scheduling of satellite imagery. By using an Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) and a synthetic analysis with the 2D hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD-FP based on a real flooding case affecting an urban area (summer 2007,Tewkesbury, Southwest UK), we evaluate the sensitivity of the forecast performance to visit parameters. We emulate a generic hydrologic-hydrodynamic modelling cascade by imposing a bias and spatiotemporal correlations to the inflow error ensemble into the hydrodynamic domain. First, in agreement with previous research, estimation and correction for this bias leads to a clear improvement in keeping the forecast on track. Second, imagery obtained early in the flood is shown to have a large influence on forecast statistics. Revisit interval is most influential for early observations. The results are promising for the future of remote sensing-based water level observations for real-time flood forecasting in complex scenarios.

Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change

Atmospheric turbulence causes most weather-related aircraft incidents1. Commercial aircraft encounter moderate-or-greater turbulence tens of thousands of times each year worldwide, injuring probably hundreds of passengers (occasionally fatally), costing airlines tens of millions of dollars and causing structural damage to planes1, 2, 3. Clear-air turbulence is especially difficult to avoid, because it cannot be seen by pilots or detected by satellites or on-board radar4, 5. Clear-air turbulence is linked to atmospheric jet streams6, 7, which are projected to be strengthened by anthropogenic climate change8. However, the response of clear-air turbulence to projected climate change has not previously been studied. Here we show using climate model simulations that clear-air turbulence changes significantly within the transatlantic flight corridor when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is doubled. At cruise altitudes within 50–75° N and 10–60° W in winter, most clear-air turbulence measures show a 10–40% increase in the median strength of turbulence and a 40–170% increase in the frequency of occurrence of moderate-or-greater turbulence. Our results suggest that climate change will lead to bumpier transatlantic flights by the middle of this century. Journey times may lengthen and fuel consumption and emissions may increase. Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate9, but our findings show for the first time how climate change could affect aviation.

Ultralow-frequency modulation of whistler-mode wave growth

Measurements from ground-based magnetometers and riometers at auroral latitudes have demonstrated that energetic (~30-300keV) electron precipitation can be modulated in the presence of magnetic field oscillations at ultra-low frequencies. It has previously been proposed that an ultra-low frequency (ULF) wave would modulate field and plasma properties near the equatorial plane, thus modifying the growth rates of whistler-mode waves. In turn, the resulting whistler-mode waves would mediate the pitch-angle scattering of electrons resulting in ionospheric precipitation. In this paper, we investigate this hypothesis by quantifying the changes to the linear growth rate expected due to a slow change in the local magnetic field strength for parameters typical of the equatorial region around 6.6RE radial distance. To constrain our study, we determine the largest possible ULF wave amplitudes from measurements of the magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit. Using nearly ten years of observations from two satellites, we demonstrate that the variation in magnetic field strength due to oscillations at 2mHz does not exceed ±10% of the background field. Modifications to the plasma density and temperature anisotropy are estimated using idealised models. For low temperature anisotropy, there is little change in the whistler-mode growth rates even for the largest ULF wave amplitude. Only for large temperature anisotropies can whistler-mode growth rates be modulated sufficiently to account for the changes in electron precipitation measured by riometers at auroral latitudes.

DK-1D: a drift-kinetic simulation tool for modelling the shear Alfvén wave and its interaction with collisionless plasma

We present a highly accurate tool for the simulation of shear Alfven waves (SAW) in collisionless plasma. SAW are important in space plasma environments because for small perpendicular scale lengths they can support an electric field parallel to the ambient magnetic field. Electrons can be accelerated by the parallel electric field and these waves have been implicated as the source of vibrant auroral displays. However, the parallel electric field carried by SAW is small in comparison to the perpendicular electric field of the wave, making it difficult to measure directly in the laboratory, or by satellites in the near-Earth plasma environment. In this paper, we present a simulation code that provides a means to study in detail the SAW-particle interaction in both space and laboratory plasma. Using idealised, small-amplitude propagating waves with a single perpendicular wavenumber, the simulation code accurately reproduces the damping rates and parallel electric field amplitudes predicted by linear theory for varying temperatures and perpendicular scale lengths. We present a rigorous kinetic derivation of the parallel electric field strength for small-amplitude SAW and show that commonly-used inertial and kinetic approximations are valid except for where the ratio of thermal to Alfv\'{e}n speed is between 0.7 and 1.0. We also present nonlinear simulations of large-amplitude waves and show that in cases of strong damping, the damping rates and parallel electric field strength deviate from linear predictions when wave energies are greater than only a few percent of the plasma kinetic energy, a situation which is often observed in the magnetosphere. The drift-kinetic code provides reliable, testable predictions of the parallel electric field strength which can be investigated directly in the laboratory, and will help to bridge the gap between studies of SAW in man-made and naturally occuring plasma.

Assessment of intercalibration methods for satellite microwave humidity sounders

Three methods for intercalibrating humidity sounding channels are compared to assess their merits and demerits. The methods use the following: (1) natural targets (Antarctica and tropical oceans), (2) zonal average brightness temperatures, and (3) simultaneous nadir overpasses (SNOs). Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B instruments onboard the polar-orbiting NOAA 15 and NOAA 16 satellites are used as examples. Antarctica is shown to be useful for identifying some of the instrument problems but less promising for intercalibrating humidity sounders due to the large diurnal variations there. Owing to smaller diurnal cycles over tropical oceans, these are found to be a good target for estimating intersatellite biases. Estimated biases are more resistant to diurnal differences when data from ascending and descending passes are combined. Biases estimated from zonal-averaged brightness temperatures show large seasonal and latitude dependence which could have resulted from diurnal cycle aliasing and scene-radiance dependence of the biases. This method may not be the best for channels with significant surface contributions. We have also tested the impact of clouds on the estimated biases and found that it is not significant, at least for tropical ocean estimates. Biases estimated from SNOs are the least influenced by diurnal cycle aliasing and cloud impacts. However, SNOs cover only relatively small part of the dynamic range of observed brightness temperatures.

Cloud optical and microphysical properties derived from ground-based and satellite sensors over a site in the Yangtze Delta region

Comprehensive surface-based retrievals of cloud optical and microphysical properties were made at Taihu, a highly polluted site in the central Yangtze Delta region, during a research campaign from May 2008 to December 2009. Cloud optical depth (COD), effective radius (Re), and liquid water path (LWP) were retrieved from measurements made with a suite of ground-based and spaceborne instruments, including an Analytical Spectral Devices spectroradiometer, a multi␣lter rotating shadowband radiometer, a multichannel microwave radiometer profiler, and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua satellites. Retrievals from zenith radiance measurements capture better the temporal variation of cloud properties than do retrievals from hemispherical fluxes. Annual mean LWP, COD, and Re are 115.8 ± 90.8 g/m2, 28.5 ± 19.2, and 6.9 ± 4.2 microns. Over 90% of LWP values are less than 250 g/m2. Most of the COD values (>90%) fall between 5 and 60, and ~80% of Re values are less than 10 microns. Maximum (minimum) values of LWP and Re occur in summer (winter); COD is highest in winter and spring. Raining and nonraining clouds have signi␣cant differences in LWP, COD, and Re. Rainfall frequency is best correlated with LWP, followed by COD and Re. Cloud properties retrieved from multiple ground-based instruments are also compared with those from satellite retrievals. On average, relative to surface retrievals, mean differences of satellite retrievals in cloud LWP, COD, and Re were -33.6 g/m2 (-26.4%), -5.8 (-31.4%), and 2.9 ␣m (29.3%) for 11 MODIS-Terra overpasses and -43.3 g/m2 (-22.3%), -3.0 (-10.0%), and -1.3 ␣m (-12.0%) for 8 MODIS-Aqua overpasses, respectively. These discrepancies indicate that MODIS cloud products still suffer from large uncertainties in this region.

Retrieval of sea surface temperature from space based on modeling of infrared radiative transfer: capabilities and limitations

The retrieval (estimation) of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from space-based infrared observations is increasingly performed using retrieval coefficients derived from radiative transfer simulations of top-of-atmosphere brightness temperatures (BTs). Typically, an estimate of SST is formed from a weighted combination of BTs at a few wavelengths, plus an offset. This paper addresses two questions about the radiative transfer modeling approach to deriving these weighting and offset coefficients. How precisely specified do the coefficients need to be in order to obtain the required SST accuracy (e.g., scatter <0.3 K in week-average SST, bias <0.1 K)? And how precisely is it actually possible to specify them using current forward models? The conclusions are that weighting coefficients can be obtained with adequate precision, while the offset coefficient will often require an empirical adjustment of the order of a few tenths of a kelvin against validation data. Thus, a rational approach to defining retrieval coefficients is one of radiative transfer modeling followed by offset adjustment. The need for this approach is illustrated from experience in defining SST retrieval schemes for operational meteorological satellites. A strategy is described for obtaining the required offset adjustment, and the paper highlights some of the subtler aspects involved with reference to the example of SST retrievals from the imager on the geostationary satellite GOES-8.

An “A-train” strategy for quantifying direct climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

This document outlines a practical strategy for achieving an observationally based quantification of direct climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols. The strategy involves a four-step program for shifting the current assumption-laden estimates to an increasingly empirical basis using satellite observations coordinated with suborbital remote and in situ measurements and with chemical transport models. Conceptually, the problem is framed as a need for complete global mapping of four parameters: clear-sky aerosol optical depth δ, radiative efficiency per unit optical depth E, fine-mode fraction of optical depth ff, and the anthropogenic fraction of the fine mode faf. The first three parameters can be retrieved from satellites, but correlative, suborbital measurements are required for quantifying the aerosol properties that control E, for validating the retrieval of ff, and for partitioning fine-mode δ between natural and anthropogenic components. The satellite focus is on the “A-Train,” a constellation of six spacecraft that will fly in formation from about 2005 to 2008. Key satellite instruments for this report are the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) radiometers on Aqua, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) radiometer on Aura, the Polarization and Directionality of Earth's Reflectances (POLDER) polarimeter on the Polarization and Anistropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences Coupled with Observations from a Lidar (PARASOL), and the Cloud and Aerosol Lider with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) lidar on the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). This strategy is offered as an initial framework—subject to improvement over time—for scientists around the world to participate in the A-Train opportunity. It is a specific implementation of the Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON) program, presented earlier in this journal, which identified the integration of diverse data as the central challenge to progress in quantifying global-scale aerosol effects. By designing a strategy around this need for integration, we develop recommendations for both satellite data interpretation and correlative suborbital activities that represent, in many respects, departures from current practice

In situ and remote-sensing measurements of the mean microphysical and optical properties of industrial pollution aerosol during ADRIEX

We present a summary of the principal physical and optical properties of aerosol particles using the FAAM BAE-146 instrumented aircraft during ADRIEX between 27 August and 6 September 2004, augmented by sunphotometer, lidar and satellite retrievals. Observations of anthropogenic aerosol, principally from industrial sources, were concentrated over the northern Adriatic Sea and over the Po Valley close to the aerosol sources. An additional flight was also carried out over the Black Sea to compare east and west European pollution. Measurements show the single-scattering albedo of dry aerosol particles to vary considerably between 0.89 and 0.97 at a wavelength of 0.55 μm, with a campaign mean within the polluted lower free troposphere of 0.92. Although aerosol concentrations varied significantly from day to day and during individual days, the shape of the aerosol size distribution was relatively consistent through the experiment, with no detectable change observed over land and over sea. There is evidence to suggest that the pollution aerosol within the marine boundary layer was younger than that in the elevated layer. Trends in the aerosol volume distribution show consistency with multiple-site AERONET radiometric observations. The aerosol optical depths derived from aircraft measurements show a consistent bias to lower values than both the AERONET and lidar ground-based radiometric observations, differences which can be explained by local variations in the aerosol column loading and by some aircraft instrumental artefacts. Retrievals of the aerosol optical depth and fine-mode (<0.5 μm radius) fraction contribution to the optical depth using MODIS data from the Terra and Aqua satellites show a reasonable level of agreement with the AERONET and aircraft measurements.

Effects of absorbing aerosols in cloudy skies: a satellite study over the Atlantic Ocean

We present a method for deriving the radiative effects of absorbing aerosols in cloudy scenes from satellite retrievals only. We use data of 2005–2007 from various passive sensors aboard satellites of the “A-Train” constellation. The study area is restricted to the tropical- and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. To identify the dependence of the local planetary albedo in cloudy scenes on cloud liquid water path and aerosol optical depth (AOD), we perform a multiple linear regression. The OMI UV-Aerosolindex serves as an indicator for absorbing-aerosol presence. In our method, the aerosol influences the local planetary albedo through direct- (scattering and absorption) and indirect (Twomey) aerosol effects. We find an increase of the local planetary albedo (LPA) with increasing AOD of mostly scattering aerosol and a decrease of the LPA with increasing AOD of mostly absorbing aerosol. These results allow us to derive the direct aerosol effect of absorbing aerosols in cloudy scenes, with the effect of cloudy-scene aerosol absorption in the tropical- and subtropical Atlantic contributing (+21.2±11.1)×10−3 Wm−2 to the global top of the atmosphere radiative forcing.

Comparison of TAMSAT and CPC rainfall estimates with raingauges, for southern Africa

Two different TAMSAT (Tropical Applications of Meteorological Satellites) methods of rainfall estimation were developed for northern and southern Africa, based on Meteosat images. These two methods were used to make rainfall estimates for the southern rainy season from October 1995 to April 1996. Estimates produced by both TAMSAT methods and estimates produced by the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) method were then compared with kriged data from over 800 raingauges in southern Africa. This shows that operational TAMSAT estimates are better over plateau regions, with 59% of estimates within one standard error (s.e.) of the kriged rainfall. Over mountainous regions the CPC approach is generally better, although all methods underestimate and give only 40% of estimates within 1 s.e. The two TAMSAT methods show little difference across a whole season, but when looked at in detail the northern method gives unsatisfactory calibrations. The CPC method does have significant overall improvements by building in real-time raingauge data, but only where sufficient raingauges are available.

The Solar Stormwatch CME catalogue: results from the first space weather citizen science project

Solar Stormwatch was the first space weather citizen science project, the aim of which was to identify and track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Heliospheric Imagers aboard the STEREO satellites. The project has now been running for approximately 4 years, with input from >16000 citizen scientists, resulting in a dataset of >38000 time-elongation profiles of CME trajectories, observed over 18 pre-selected position angles. We present our method for reducing this data set into aCME catalogue. The resulting catalogue consists of 144 CMEs over the period January-2007 to February-2010, of which 110 were observed by STEREO-A and 77 were observed by STEREO-B. For each CME, the time-elongation profiles generated by the citizen scientists are averaged into a consensus profile along each position angle that the event was tracked. We consider this catalogue to be unique, being at present the only citizen science generated CME catalogue, tracking CMEs over an elongation range of 4 degrees out to a maximum of approximately 70 degrees. Using single spacecraft fitting techniques, we estimate the speed, direction, solar source region and latitudinal width of each CME. This shows that, at present, the Solar Stormwatch catalogue (which covers only solar minimum years) contains almost exclusively slow CMEs, with a mean speed of approximately 350 kms−1. The full catalogue is available for public access at www.met.reading.ac.uk/spate/stormwatch. This includes, for each event, the unprocessed time-elongation profiles generated by Solar Stormwatch, the consensus time-elongation profiles and a set of summary plots, as well as the estimated CME properties.

The science case for an orbital mission to Uranus: Exploring the origins and evolution of ice giant planets

Giant planets helped to shape the conditions we see in the Solar System today and they account for more than 99% of the mass of the Sun’s planetary system. They can be subdivided into the Ice Giants (Uranus and Neptune) and the Gas Giants (Jupiter and Saturn), which differ from each other in a number of fundamental ways. Uranus, in particular is the most challenging to our understanding of planetary formation and evolution, with its large obliquity, low self-luminosity, highly asymmetrical internal field, and puzzling internal structure. Uranus also has a rich planetary system consisting of a system of inner natural satellites and complex ring system, five major natural icy satellites, a system of irregular moons with varied dynamical histories, and a highly asymmetrical magnetosphere. Voyager 2 is the only spacecraft to have explored Uranus, with a flyby in 1986, and no mission is currently planned to this enigmatic system. However, a mission to the uranian system would open a new window on the origin and evolution of the Solar System and would provide crucial information on a wide variety of physicochemical processes in our Solar System. These have clear implications for understanding exoplanetary systems. In this paper we describe the science case for an orbital mission to Uranus with an atmospheric entry probe to sample the composition and atmospheric physics in Uranus’ atmosphere. The characteristics of such an orbiter and a strawman scientific payload are described and we discuss the technical challenges for such a mission. This paper is based on a white paper submitted to the European Space Agency’s call for science themes for its large-class mission programme in 2013.

The MELODIES project: integrating diverse data using Linked Data and cloud computing

We present an overview of the MELODIES project, which is developing new data-intensive environmental services based on data from Earth Observation satellites, government databases, national and European agencies and more. We focus here on the capabilities and benefits of the project’s “technical platform”, which applies cloud computing and Linked Data technologies to enable the development of these services, providing flexibility and scalability.