58 resultados para Statistics -- Fieldwork
Resumo:
This resource paper provides guidance for staff and students on the potential educational benefits, limitations and applications of geotagging photographs. It also offers practical advice for geotagging photographs in a range of fieldwork settings and reviews three free smartphone applications (apps) for geotagging photographs (Flickr, Evernote and Panoramio). Geotagged photographs have the potential to encourage post-fieldwork student reflection on a landscape. A short case study of first-year undergraduates who geotagged photographs as a method of data collection is outlined. This resource paper also briefly discusses the use of student-owned devices in fieldwork which may reduce pressure on departmental budgets.
Resumo:
This paper reports the results of fieldwork conducted in the 2010 and 2011 DMP field seasons and of analysis of samples collected during these and previous years. Research has involved 1) studying palaeolake sediment outcrops, 2) using ground penetrating radar (GPR) to determine their extent under the Dahān Ubārī, and 3) coring palaeolakes in order to determine their palaeoenvironmental records. Research on these samples is continuing but some initial findings are discussed in this paper. The most extensive palaeolake sediments are found within the al-Mahruqah Formation and were deposited by a giant lake system that developed in the Fazzān Basin during past humid periods. Stratigraphic analysis of Lake Megafazzān sediments suggests two different sedimentary successions, a lake margin succession distinctive for its lacustrine and palaeosol carbonates, and a clastic-dominated, intensely rootleted, basin-centre succession which has terrestrial intervals (aeolian and palaeosols) as well as in the upper parts lacustrine limestones. Both basin margin and basin centre successions are underlain by fluvial deposits. Magnetostratigraphy suggests that the formation may be as old as the mid-Pliocene. After the Lake Megafazzān phase, smaller palaeolakes developed within the basin during subsequent humid periods. One of the largest is found in the Wādī al-Hayāt in the area between Jarma and Ubārī. Similar deposits further west along the Wādī at progressively higher altitudes are interpreted as small lakes and marshes fed by springs issuing from aquifers at the base of the escarpment, last replenished during the Holocene humid phase. Dating of sediments suggests that this was between c. 11 and c. 8 ka. The Wādī ash-Shāţī palaeolake core also provides a Holocene palaeoclimate record that paints a slightly different picture, indicating lake conditions until around 7 ka, whereupon it started oscillating until around 5.5 ka when sedimentation terminates. The reasons for the differences in these records are discussed.
Resumo:
The article presents an essay that deals with the study conducted by Donald MacKenzie and the case studies comparing the use of population statistics in France and Great Britain in the periods of 1825 and 1885. It analyzes Donald MacKenzie's study on the ways professional and political commitments informed the choice of statistical indexes in the British statistical community. Furthermore, the author is interested in knowing how this influenced the development of mathematical statistics in Great Britain. The author concludes that the differences in the debates over population statistics are accounted to the differences in the social and epistemological logics of population statistics.
Resumo:
An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km. The 15-year integrations were forced from reanalyses and observed sea surface temperature and sea ice (global model from sea surface only). The observational reference is based on 6400 rain gauge records (10–50 stations per grid box). Evaluation statistics encompass mean precipitation, wet-day frequency, precipitation intensity, and quantiles of the frequency distribution. For mean precipitation, the models reproduce the characteristics of the annual cycle and the spatial distribution. The domain mean bias varies between −23% and +3% in winter and between −27% and −5% in summer. Larger errors are found for other statistics. In summer, all models underestimate precipitation intensity (by 16–42%) and there is a too low frequency of heavy events. This bias reflects too dry summer mean conditions in three of the models, while it is partly compensated by too many low-intensity events in the other two models. Similar intermodel differences are found for other European subregions. Interestingly, the model errors are very similar between the two models with the same dynamical core (but different parameterizations) and they differ considerably between the two models with similar parameterizations (but different dynamics). Despite considerable biases, the models reproduce prominent mesoscale features of heavy precipitation, which is a promising result for their use in climate change downscaling over complex topography.
Resumo:
The probability of a quantum particle being detected in a given solid angle is determined by the S-matrix. The explanation of this fact in time-dependent scattering theory is often linked to the quantum flux, since the quantum flux integrated against a (detector-) surface and over a time interval can be viewed as the probability that the particle crosses this surface within the given time interval. Regarding many particle scattering, however, this argument is no longer valid, as each particle arrives at the detector at its own random time. While various treatments of this problem can be envisaged, here we present a straightforward Bohmian analysis of many particle potential scattering from which the S-matrix probability emerges in the limit of large distances.
Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns
Resumo:
Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) through regional climate models (RCMs) potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS) techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1) a simple direct method (DM), (2) quantile-quantile mapping (QM) and (3) a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts) project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.
Resumo:
This research paper reports the findings from an international survey of fieldwork practitioners on their use of technology to enhance fieldwork teaching and learning. It was found that there was high information technology usage before and after time in the field, but some were also using portable devices such as smartphones and global positioning system whilst out in the field. The main pedagogic reasons cited for the use of technology were the need for efficient data processing and to develop students' technological skills. The influencing factors and barriers to the use of technology as well as the importance of emerging technologies are discussed.
Resumo:
Many modern statistical applications involve inference for complex stochastic models, where it is easy to simulate from the models, but impossible to calculate likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method of inference for such models. It replaces calculation of the likelihood by a step which involves simulating artificial data for different parameter values, and comparing summary statistics of the simulated data with summary statistics of the observed data. Here we show how to construct appropriate summary statistics for ABC in a semi-automatic manner. We aim for summary statistics which will enable inference about certain parameters of interest to be as accurate as possible. Theoretical results show that optimal summary statistics are the posterior means of the parameters. Although these cannot be calculated analytically, we use an extra stage of simulation to estimate how the posterior means vary as a function of the data; and we then use these estimates of our summary statistics within ABC. Empirical results show that our approach is a robust method for choosing summary statistics that can result in substantially more accurate ABC analyses than the ad hoc choices of summary statistics that have been proposed in the literature. We also demonstrate advantages over two alternative methods of simulation-based inference.
Resumo:
Fieldwork is an important and often enjoyable part of learning in Bioscience degree courses, however it is unclear how the recent reforms to Higher Education (HE) may impact the future funding of outdoor learning. This paper reports on the findings from a recent survey of 30 HE Bioscience practitioners from across the UK. Their current level of fieldwork provision and factors affecting this provision in the future were explored. The data showed that the level of fieldwork had remained similar over the past five years and this was set to remain so over the next academic year and also into the next five years (when it may even increase). Funding of fieldwork was under review in most institutions due to the increase in student tuition fees and it was found that in some cases the cost of compulsory fieldwork will be subsumed within the overall course fee. Many influencing factors were discussed, but the most frequently raised topics were that of the development of employability skills during fieldwork and its importance in attracting and retaining students. Both topics are high on the agenda of HE institutions going forward into the new funding model, suggesting that fieldwork will remain a central part of the Bioscience curriculum.
Resumo:
This note caveats standard statistics which accompany chess endgame tables, EGTs. It refers to Nalimov's double-counting of pawnless positions with both Kings on a long diagonal, and to the inclusion of positions which are not reachable from the initial position.