A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.

A tractable means of correcting sector level TFP calculations in the face of biased technological change.

The measurement of the impact of technical change has received significant attention within the economics literature. One popular method of quantifying the impact of technical change is the use of growth accounting index numbers. However, in a recent article Nelson and Pack (1999) criticise the use of such index numbers in situations where technical change is likely to be biased in favour of one or other inputs. In particular they criticise the common approach of applying observed cost shares, as proxies for partial output elasticities, to weight the change in quantities which they claim is only valid under Hicks neutrality. Recent advances in the measurement of product and factor biases of technical change developed by Balcombe et al (2000) provide a relatively straight-forward means of correcting product and factor shares in the face of biased technical progress. This paper demonstrates the correction of both revenue and cost shares used in the construction of a TFP index for UK agriculture over the period 1953 to 2000 using both revenue and cost function share equations appended with stochastic latent variables to capture the bias effect. Technical progress is shown to be biased between both individual input and output groups. Output and input quantity aggregates are then constructed using both observed and corrected share weights and the resulting TFPs are compared. There does appear to be some significant bias in TFP if the effect of biased technical progress is not taken into account when constructing the weights

The molecular structure of hexamethyldigermane determined by gas-phase electron diffraction with theoretical calculations for (CH3)3M-M(CH3)3 Where M = C, Si, and Ge

Gas-phase electron diffraction (GED) data together with results from ab initio molecular orbital calculations (HF and MP2/6-311+G(d,p)) have been used to determine the structure of hexamethyldigermane ((CH3)3Ge-Ge(CH3)3). The equilibrium symmetry is D3d, but the molecule has a very low-frequency, largeamplitude, torsional mode (φCGeGeC) that lowers the thermal average symmetry. The effect of this largeamplitude mode on the interatomic distances was described by a dynamic model which consisted of a set of pseudoconformers spaced at even intervals. The amount of each pseudoconformer was obtained from the ab initio calculations (HF/6-311+G(d,p)). The results for the principal distances (ra) and angles (∠h1) obtained from the combined GED/ab initio (with estimated 1σ uncertainties) are r(Ge-Ge) ) 2.417(2) Å, r(Ge-C) ) 1.956(1) Å, r(C-H) ) 1.097(5) Å, ∠GeGeC ) 110.5(2)°, and ∠GeCH ) 108.8(6)°. Theoretical calculations were performed for the related molecules ((CH3)3Si-Si(CH3)3 and (CH3)3C-C(CH3)3).

Molecular structure of 2,5-dihydropyrrole (C4NH7), obtained by gas-phase electron diffraction and theoretical calculations

The structure of 2,5-dihydropyrrole (C4NH7) has been determined by gas-phase electron diffraction (GED), augmented by the results from ab initio calculations employing third-order Moller-Plesset (MP3) level of theory and the 6-311+G(d,p) basis set. Several theoretical calculations were performed. From theoretical calculations using MP3/6-311+G(d,p) evidence was obtained for the presence of an axial (63%) (N-H bond axial to the CNC plane) and an equatorial conformer (37%) (N-H bond equatorial to the CNC plane). The five-membered ring was found to be puckered with the CNC plane inclined at 21.8 (38)° to the plane of the four carbon atoms.

Molecular structures of trimethylchlorogermane, (CH3)(3)GeCl, and trimethylbromogermane, (CH3)(3)GeBr, obtained by gas-phase electron diffraction and theoretical calculations

The structures of trimethylchlorogermane ((CH3)(3)GeCl) and trimethylbromogermane ((CH3)(3)GeBr) have been determined by gas-phase electron diffraction (GED), augmented by the results from ab initio calculations employing second-order Moller-Plesset (MP2) level of theory and the 6-311+G(d) basis set. All the electrons were included in the correlation calculation. The results from the ab initio calculations indicated that these molecules have C-3v symmetry, and models with this symmetry were used in the electron diffraction analysis. The results for the principal distances (r(g)) and angles (angle(alpha)) from the combined GED/ab initio study of trimethylchlorogermane (with estimated 2sigma uncertainties) are: r(Ge-C) = 1.950(4) Angstrom, r(Ge-Cl) = 2.173(4) Angstrom, r(C-H) = 1.090(9) Angstrom, angleCGeC = 112.7(7)degrees, angleCGeCl = 106.0(8)degrees, angleGeCH = 107.8(12)degrees. The results for the principal distances (r(g)) and angles (angle(alpha)) from the combined GED/ab initio study of trimethylbromogermane (with estimated 2sigma uncertainties) are: r(Ge-C) = 1.952(7) Angstrom, r(Ge-Br) = 2.325(4) Angstrom, r(C-H) = 1. 140(28) Angstrom, angleCGeC = 114.2(11)degrees, angleCGeBr = 104.2(13)degrees, angleGeCH 106.9(43)degrees. Local C-3v symmetry and staggered conformation were assumed for the methyl groups.

Molecular structures of benzoic acid and 2-hydroxybenzoic acid, obtained by gas-phase electron diffraction and theoretical calculations

The structures of benzoic acid (C6H5COOH) and 2-hydroxybenzoic acid (C6H4OHCOOH) have been determined in the gas phase by electron diffraction using results from quantum chemical calculations to inform restraints used on the structural parameters. Theoretical methods (HF and MP2/6-311+G(d, p)) predict two conformers for benzoic acid, one which is 25.0 kJ mol(-1) (MP2) lower in energy than the other. In the low-energy form, the carboxyl group is coplanar with the phenyl ring and the O-H group eclipses the C=O bond. Theoretical calculations (HF and MP2/6-311+ G(d, p)) carried out for 2-hydroxybenzoic acid gave evidence for seven stable conformers but one low-energy form (11.7 kJ mol-1 lower in energy (MP2)) which again has the carboxyl group coplanar with the phenyl ring, the O-H of the carboxyl group eclipsing the C=O bond and the C=O of the carboxyl group oriented toward the O-H group of the phenyl ring. The effects of internal hydrogen bonding in 2-hydroxybenzoic acid can be clearly observed by comparison of pertinent structural parameters between the two compounds. These differences for 2-hydroxybenzoic acid include a shorter exocyclic C-C bond, a lengthening of the ring C-C bond between the substituents, and a shortening of the carboxylic single C-O bond.

Molecular structures of 3-hydroxybenzoic acid and 4-hydroxybenzoic acid, obtained by gas-phase electron diffraction and theoretical calculations

The structures of 3-hydroxybenzoic acid and 4-hydroxybenzoic acid have been determined by gas-phase electron diffraction using results from quantum chemical calculations to inform the choice of restraints applied to some of the structural parameters. The results from the study presented here demonstrate that resonance hybrids are not as helpful in rationalizing the structures of 2-, 3-, and 4-hydroxybenzoic acids as are models based upon electrostatic effects.

Surprisingly slow reaction of dimethylsilylene with dimethylgermane: time-resolved kinetic studies and related quantum chemical calculations

Time-resolved studies of silylene, SiH2, and dimethylsilylene, SiMe2, generated by the 193 nm laser flash photolysis of appropriate precursor molecules have been carried out to obtain rate constants for their bimolecular reactions with dimethylgermane, Me2GeH2, in the gas phase. SiMe2 + Me2GeH2 was studied at five temperatures in the range 299-555 K. Problems of substrate UV absorption at 193 nm at temperatures above 400 K meant that only three temperatures could be used reliably for rate constant measurement. These rate constants gave the Arrhenius parameters log(A/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = -13.25 +/- 0.16 and E-a = -(5.01 +/- 1.01) kJ mol(-1). Only room temperature studies of SiH2 were carried out. These gave values of (4.05 +/- 0.06) x 10(-10) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (SiH2 + Me2GeH2 at 295 K) and also (4.41 +/- 0.07) x 10(-10) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (SiH2 + MeGeH3 at 296 K). Rate constant comparisons show the surprising result that SiMe2 reacts 12.5 times slower with Me2GeH2 than with Me2SiH2. Quantum chemical calculations (G2(MP2,SVP)//B3LYP level) of the model Si-H and Ge-H insertion processes of SiMe2 with SiH4/MeSiH3 and GeH4/MeGeH3 support these findings and show that the lower reactivity of SiMe2 with Ge-H bonds is caused by a higher secondary barrier for rearrangement of the initially formed complexes. Full details of the structures of intermediate complexes and the discussion of their stabilities are given in the paper. Other, related, comparisons of silylene reactivity are also presented.

An investigation of the germylene addition reaction, GeH2+C2H2: Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic studies and quantum chemical calculations of the reaction energy surface

Time resolved studies of germylene, GeH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of 3,4-dimethylgermacyclopentene-3, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with acetylene, C2H2. The reaction was studied in the gas-phase over the pressure range 1-100 Tort, with SF6 as bath gas, at 5 temperatures in the range 297-553 K. The reaction showed a very slight pressure dependence at higher temperatures. The high pressure rate constants (obtained by extrapolation at the three higher temperatures) gave the Arrhenius equation: log(k(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) (-10.94 +/- 0.05) + (6.10 +/- 0.36 kJ mol(-1))/RTln10. These Arrhenius parameters are consistent with a fast reaction occurring at approximately 30% of the collision rate at 298 K. Quantum chemical calculations (both DFT and ab initio G2//B3LYP and G2//QCISD) of the GeC2H4 potential energy surface (PES), show that GeH2 + C2H2 react initially to form germirene which can isomerise to vinylgermylene with a relatively low barrier. RRKM modelling, based on a loose association transition state, but assuming vinylgermylene is the end product (used in combination with a weak collisional deactivation model) predicts a strong pressure dependence using the calculated energies, in conflict with the experimental evidence. The detailed GeC2H4 PES shows considerable complexity with ten other accessible stable minima (B3LYP level), the three most stable of which are all germylenes. Routes through this complex surface were examined in detail. The only product combination which appears capable of satisfying the (P-3) + C2H4.C2H4 was confirmed as a product by GC observed lack of a strong pressure dependence is Ge(P-3) + C2H4. C2H4 was confirmed as a product by GC analysis. Although the formation of these products are shown to be possible by singlet-triplet curve crossing during dissociation of 1-germiranylidene (1-germacyclopropylidene), it seems more likely (on thermochernical grounds) that the triplet biradical, (GeCH2CH2.)-Ge-., is the immediate product precursor. Comparisons are made with the reaction of SiH2 with C2H2.

Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reaction of silylene with oxygen

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with O-2. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas, at five temperatures in the range 297-600 K. The second order rate constants at 10 Torr were fitted to the Arrhenius equation: log(k/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-11.08 +/- 0.04) + (1.57 +/- 0.32 kJ mol(-1))/RT ln10 The decrease in rate constant values with increasing temperature, although systematic is very small. The rate constants showed slight increases in value with pressure at each temperature, but this was scarcely beyond experimental uncertainty. From estimates of Lennard-Jones collision rates, this reaction is occurring at ca. 1 in 20 collisions, almost independent of pressure and temperature. Ab initio calculations at the G3 level backed further by multi-configurational (MC) SCF calculations, augmented by second order perturbation theory (MRMP2), support a mechanism in which the initial adduct, H2SiOO, formed in the triplet state (T), undergoes intersystem crossing to the more stable singlet state (S) prior to further low energy isomerisation processes leading, via a sequence of steps, ultimately to dissociation products of which the lowest energy pair are H2O + SiO. The decomposition of the intermediate cyclo-siladioxirane, via O-O bond fission, plays an important role in the overall process. The bottleneck for the overall process appears to be the T -> S process in H2SiOO. This process has a small spin orbit coupling matrix element, consistent with an estimate of its rate constant of 1 x 10(9) s(-1) obtained with the aid of RRKM theory. This interpretation preserves the idea that, as in its reactions in general, SiH2 initially reacts at the encounter rate with O-2. The low values for the secondary reaction barriers on the potential energy surface account for the lack of an observed pressure dependence. Some comparisons are drawn with the reactions of CH2 + O-2 and SiCl2 + O-2.

The addition reaction between silylene and ethyne: further isotope studies, pressure dependence studies, and quantum chemical calculations

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of dideutero-silylene, SiD2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane-d(3), have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with C2H2. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas, at five temperatures in the range 297-600 K. The second-order rate constants obtained by extrapolation to the high-pressure limits at each temperature fitted the Arrhenius equation log(k(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-10.05 +/- 0.05) + (3.43 +/- 0.36 kJ mol(-1))/RT ln 10. The rate constants were used to obtain a comprehensive set of isotope effects by comparison with earlier obtained rate constants for the reactions of SiH2 with C2H2 and C2D2. Additionally, pressure-dependent rate constants for the reaction of SiH2 with C2H2 in the presence of He (1-100 Tort) were obtained at 300, 399, and 613 K. Quantum chemical (ab initio) calculations of the SiC2H4 reaction system at the G3 level support the initial formation of silirene, which rapidly isomerizes to ethynylsilane as the major pathway. Reversible formation of vinylsilylene is also an important process. The calculations also indicate the involvement of several other intermediates, not previously suggested in the mechanism. RRKM calculations are in semiquantitative agreement with the pressure dependences and isotope effects suggested by the ab initio calculations, but residual discrepancies suggest the possible involvement of the minor reaction channel, SiH2 + C2H2 - SWPO + C2H4. The results are compared and contrasted with previous studies of this reaction system.