Conditioning of incremental variational data assimilation, with application to the Met Office system

Implementations of incremental variational data assimilation require the iterative minimization of a series of linear least-squares cost functions. The accuracy and speed with which these linear minimization problems can be solved is determined by the condition number of the Hessian of the problem. In this study, we examine how different components of the assimilation system influence this condition number. Theoretical bounds on the condition number for a single parameter system are presented and used to predict how the condition number is affected by the observation distribution and accuracy and by the specified lengthscales in the background error covariance matrix. The theoretical results are verified in the Met Office variational data assimilation system, using both pseudo-observations and real data.

The national food safety control system of China: a systematic review

In recent years, there have been increasing concerns over the safety of the Chinese food supply. Although many of these have only raised concern internally within China, several major food safety issues have had international repercussions. In response, China has implemented new food safety laws and management systems to improve its national food safety control system and reduce public and international concerns. This paper has describes and discusses the components of the Chinese system using the five key elements of a national food control system identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) as essential for an effective system. The latest Chinese national food safety control has made significantly improvement on its regulation framework, however, more work need to be done on standards, law enforcement, and information exchange.

Using synoptic type analysis to understand New Zealand climate during the Mid-Holocene

Diagnosing the climate of New Zealand from low-resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) is notoriously difficult due to the interaction of the complex topography and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitude westerly winds. Therefore, methods of downscaling synoptic scale model data for New Zealand are useful to help understand past climate. New Zealand also has a wealth of palaeoclimate-proxy data to which the downscaled model output can be compared, and to provide a qualitative method of assessing the capability of GCMs to represent, in this case, the climate 6000 yr ago in the Mid-Holocene. In this paper, a synoptic weather and climate regime classification system using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of GCM and reanalysis data was used. The climate regimes are associated with surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies over New Zealand. From the analysis in this study, we find at 6000 BP that increased trough activity in summer and autumn led to increased precipitation, with an increased north-south pressure gradient ("zonal events") in winter and spring leading to drier conditions. Opposing effects of increased (decreased) temperature are also seen in spring (autumn) in the South Island, which are associated with the increased zonal (trough) events; however, the circulation induced changes in temperature are likely to have been of secondary importance to the insolation induced changes. Evidence from the palaeoclimate-proxy data suggests that the Mid-Holocene was characterized by increased westerly wind events in New Zealand, which agrees with the preference for trough and zonal regimes in the models.

Decreasing the interference of visual-based P300 BCI using facial expression changes

Interferences from the spatially adjacent non-target stimuli evoke ERPs during non-target sub-trials and lead to false positives. This phenomenon is commonly seen in visual attention based BCIs and affects the performance of BCI system. Although, users or subjects tried to focus on the target stimulus, they still could not help being affected by conspicuous changes of the stimuli (flashes or presenting images) which were adjacent to the target stimulus. In view of this case, the aim of this study is to reduce the adjacent interference using new stimulus presentation pattern based on facial expression changes. Positive facial expressions can be changed to negative facial expressions by minor changes to the original facial image. Although the changes are minor, the contrast will be big enough to evoke strong ERPs. In this paper, two different conditions (Pattern_1, Pattern_2) were used to compare across objective measures such as classification accuracy and information transfer rate as well as subjective measures. Pattern_1 was a “flash-only” pattern and Pattern_2 was a facial expression change of a dummy face. In the facial expression change patterns, the background is a positive facial expression and the stimulus is a negative facial expression. The results showed that the interferences from adjacent stimuli could be reduced significantly (P<;0.05) by using the facial expression change patterns. The online performance of the BCI system using the facial expression change patterns was significantly better than that using the “flash-only” patterns in terms of classification accuracy (p<;0.01), bit rate (p<;0.01), and practical bit rate (p<;0.01). Subjects reported that the annoyance and fatigue could be significantly decreased (p<;0.05) using the new stimulus presentation pattern presented in this paper.

Dual mycorrhizal associations of jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) in a nurse-pot system

Jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata Donn ex Sm.) plants, like many other eucalypts, can form symbiotic associations with both arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi. To study this tripartite relationship we developed a novel nurse-pot system to allow us to investigate the extent and temporal colonisation dynamics of jarrah by two AM species (Rhizophagus irregularis (Błaszk., Wubet, Renker & Buscot) C. Walker & A. Schüßler comb. nov. and Scutellospora calospora Nicol. & Gerd.) and two putative ECM species (Austroboletus occidentalis Watling & N.M. Greg. and Scleroderma sp.) and their potential effects on jarrah growth and nutrition. Our nurse-pot system, using jarrah as both the nurse plant and test plant, was developed to establish extraradical hyphal networks of both AM and ECM fungi that act as single or dual inoculum for test plants. Mycorrhizal colonisation was described and quantified, and growth and nutritional effects measured and analysed. Mycorrhizal colonisation increased with time for the test seedlings exposed to hyphae networks from S. calospora and Scleroderma sp. The nurse-pot system was effective at initiating colonisation of functioning AM or (putative) ECM systems separately but the ECM symbiosis was inhibited where a dual AM + ECM inoculum (R. irregularis and Scleroderma sp.) was present. The presence of S. calospora, A. occidentalis and Scleroderma sp. individually significantly increased the shoot biomass of seedlings compared with non-mycorrhizal controls. The two AM isolates had different physiological effects on jarrah plants. S. calospora improved growth and micronutrient uptake of jarrah seedlings whereas no positive response was observed with R. irregularis. In addition, as an interesting observation, the non-responsive AM fungus R. irregularis suppressed the ECM symbiosis in dually inoculated plants where ECM structures, positive growth response and nutritional effects were absent. When inoculated individually, ECM isolates dominated the growth response and uptake of P and other nutrients in this dual symbiotic plant. Despite the positive growth response in the A. occidentalis treatment, ECM structures were not observed in either nurse or test seedlings. From the effects of A. occidentalis on jarrah we hypothesise that this fungus forms a functional mycorrhizal-type partnership even without forming archetypal structures in and on the root

An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with the Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.