The (il)logical problem of heritage speaker bilingualism and incomplete acquisition

This Forum challenges and problematizes the term incomplete acquisition, which has been widely used to describe the state of competence of heritage speaker (HS) bilinguals for well over a decade (see, e.g., Montrul, 2008). It is suggested and defended that HS competence, while often different from monolingual peers, is in fact not incomplete (given any reasonable definition by the word incomplete), but simply distinct for reasons related to the realities of their environment.

Heritage speaker competence differences, language change and input type: inflected infinitives in Heritage Brazilian Portuguese

It has been argued that colloquial dialects of Brazilian Portuguese (BP) have undergone significant linguistic change resulting in the loss of inflected infinitives (e.g., Pires, 2002, 2006). Since BP adults, at least educated ones, have complete knowledge of inflected infinitives, the implicit claim is that they are transmitted via formal education in the standard dialect. In the present article, I test one of the latent predictions of such claims; namely, the fact that heritage speakers of BP who lack formal education in the standard dialect should never develop native-like knowledge of inflected infinitives. In doing so, I highlight two significant implications (a) that heritage speaker grammars are a good source for testing dialectal variation and language change proposals and (b) incomplete acquisition and/or attrition are not the only sources of heritage language competence differences. Employing the syntactic and semantic tests of Rothman and Iverson (2007), I compare heritage speakers' knowledge to Rothman and Iverson's advanced adult L2 learners and educated native controls. Unlike the latter groups, the data for heritage speakers indicate that they do not have target knowledge of inflected infinitives, lending support to Pires' claims, suggesting that literacy plays a significant role in the acquisition of this grammatical property in BP.

Verification of European subseasonal wind speed forecasts

Analysis of the forecasts and hindcasts from the ECMWF 32-day forecast model reveals that there is statistically significant skill in predicting weekly mean wind speeds over areas of Europe at lead times of at least 14–20 days. Previous research on wind speed predictability has focused on the short- to medium-range time scales, typically finding that forecasts lose all skill by the later part of the medium-range forecast. To the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first to look beyond the medium-range time scale by taking weekly mean wind speeds, instead of averages at hourly or daily resolution, for the ECMWF monthly forecasting system. It is shown that the operational forecasts have high levels of correlation (~0.6) between the forecasts and observations over the winters of 2008–12 for some areas of Europe. Hindcasts covering 20 winters show a more modest level of correlation but are still skillful. Additional analysis examines the probabilistic skill for the United Kingdom with the application of wind power forecasting in mind. It is also shown that there is forecast “value” for end users (operating in a simple cost/loss ratio decision-making framework). End users that are sensitive to winter wind speed variability over the United Kingdom, Germany, and some other areas of Europe should therefore consider forecasts beyond the medium-range time scale as it is clear there is useful information contained within the forecast.

A prolegomenon to the construct of the native speaker: heritage speaker bilinguals are natives too!

This Forum challenges the generally accepted position in the linguistic sciences—conscious or not—that monolingualism and nativeness are essentially synonymous in an exclusive way. We discuss two consequences of our position that naturalistic bilinguals and multilinguals exposed to a language in early childhood are also native speakers: (i) that bi-/multilinguals have multiple native languages;and (ii) nativeness can be applicable to a state of linguistic knowledge that is characterized by significant differences to the monolingual baseline.

Exploring the source of differences and similarities in L1 attrition and heritage speaker competence: evidence from pronominal resolution

Several studies of different bilingual groups including L2 learners, child bilinguals, heritage speakers and L1 attriters reveal similar performance on syntax-discourse interface properties such as anaphora resolution (Sorace, 2011 and references therein). Specifically, bilinguals seem to allow more optionality in the interpretation of overt subject pronouns in null subject languages, such as Greek, Italian and Spanish while the interpretation of null subject pronouns is indistinguishable from monolingual natives. Nevertheless, there is some evidence pointing to bilingualism effects on the interpretation of null subject pronouns too in heritage speakers’ grammars (Montrul, 2004) due to some form of ‘arrested’ development in this group of bilinguals. The present study seeks to investigate similarities and differences between two Greek–Swedish bilingual groups, heritage speakers and L1 attriters, in anaphora resolution of null and overt subject pronouns in Greek using a self-paced listening with a sentence-picture matching decision task at the end of each sentence. The two groups differ in crucial ways: heritage speakers were simultaneous or early bilinguals while the L1 attriters were adult learners of the second language, Swedish. Our findings reveal differences from monolingual preferences in the interpretation of the overt pronoun for both heritage and attrited speakers while the differences attested between the two groups in the interpretation of null subject pronouns affect only response times with heritage being faster than attrited speakers. We argue that our results do not support an age of onset or differential input effects on bilingual performance in pronoun resolution.

Eventive and stative passives and copula selection in Canadian and American heritage speaker Spanish

Spanish captures the difference between eventive and stative passives via an obligatory choice between two copula; verbal passives take the copula ser and adjectival passives take the copula estar. In this study, we compare and contrast US and Canadian heritage speakers of Spanish on their knowledge of this difference in relation to copula choice in Spanish. The backgrounds of the target groups differ significantly from each other in that only one of them, the Canadian group, has grown up in a societal multilingual environment. We discuss the results as being supportive of two non-mutually exclusive explanation factors: (a) French facilitates (bootstraps) the acquisition of eventive and stative passives and/or (b) the US/Canadian HS differences (e.g. status of bilingualism and the languages at stake) is a reflection of the uniqueness of the language contact situations and the effects this has on the input HSS receive.

A new method for the characterisation and verification of local spatial predictability for convective scale ensembles

The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.

Model-based vehicle detection and classification using orthographic approximations

This paper reports the current state of work to simplify our previous model-based methods for visual tracking of vehicles for use in a real-time system intended to provide continuous monitoring and classification of traffic from a fixed camera on a busy multi-lane motorway. The main constraints of the system design were: (i) all low level processing to be carried out by low-cost auxiliary hardware, (ii) all 3-D reasoning to be carried out automatically off-line, at set-up time. The system developed uses three main stages: (i) pose and model hypothesis using 1-D templates, (ii) hypothesis tracking, and (iii) hypothesis verification, using 2-D templates. Stages (i) & (iii) have radically different computing performance and computational costs, and need to be carefully balanced for efficiency. Together, they provide an effective way to locate, track and classify vehicles.

Evaluation of suitable spectral intervals for near-IR laboratory detection of water vapour continuum absorption

The water vapour continuum absorption is an important component of molecular absorption of radiation in atmosphere. However, uncertainty in knowledge of the value of the continuum absorption at present can achieve 100% in different spectral regions leading to an error in flux calculation up to 3-5 W/m2 global mean. This work uses line-by-line calculations to reveal the best spectral intervals for experimental verification of the CKD water vapour continuum models in the currently least studied near-infrared spectral region. Possible sources of errors in continuum retrieval taken into account in the simulation include the sensitivity of laboratory spectrometers and uncertainties in the spectral line parameters in HITRAN-2004 and Schwenke-Partridge database. It is shown that a number of micro-windows in near-IR can be used at present for laboratory detection of the water vapour continuum with estimated accuracy from 30 to 5%.

An objective climatology of the dynamical forcing of polar lows in the Nordic seas

A new objective climatology of polar lows in the Nordic (Norwegian and Barents) seas has been derived from a database of diagnostics of objectively identified cyclones spanning the period January 2000 to April 2004. There are two distinct parts to this study: the development of the objective climatology and a characterization of the dynamical forcing of the polar lows identified. Polar lows are an intense subset of polar mesocyclones. Polar mesocyclones are distinguished from other cyclones in the database as those that occur in cold air outbreaks over the open ocean. The difference between the wet-bulb potential temperature at 700 hPa and the sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be an effective discriminator between the atmospheric conditions associated with polar lows and other cyclones in the Nordic seas. A verification study shows that the objective identification method is reliable in the Nordic seas region. After demonstrating success at identifying polar lows using the above method, the dynamical forcing of the polar lows in the Nordic seas is characterized. Diagnostics of the ratio of mid-level vertical motion attributable to quasi-geostrophic forcing from upper and lower levels (U/L ratio) are used to determine the prevalence of a recently proposed category of extratropical cyclogenesis, type C, for which latent heat release is crucial to development. Thirty-one percent of the objectively identified polar low events (36 from 115) exceeded the U/L ratio of 4.0, previously identified as a threshold for type C cyclones. There is a contrast between polar lows to the north and south of the Nordic seas. In the southern Norwegian Sea, the population of polar low events is dominated by type C cyclones. These possess strong convection and weak low-level baroclinicity. Over the Barents and northern Norwegian seas, the well-known cyclogenesis types A and B dominate. These possess stronger low-level baroclinicity and weaker convection.

Structure determination from powder diffraction data

Advances made over the past decade in structure determination from powder diffraction data are reviewed with particular emphasis on algorithmic developments and the successes and limitations of the technique. While global optimization methods have been successful in the solution of molecular crystal structures, new methods are required to make the solution of inorganic crystal structures more routine. The use of complementary techniques such as NMR to assist structure solution is discussed and the potential for the combined use of X-ray and neutron diffraction data for structure verification is explored. Structures that have proved difficult to solve from powder diffraction data are reviewed and the limitations of structure determination from powder diffraction data are discussed. Furthermore, the prospects of solving small protein crystal structures over the next decade are assessed.

The impact of targeted observations made during the Greenland Flow Distortion Experiment

The impact of targeted sonde observations on the 1-3 day forecasts for northern Europe is evaluated using the Met Office four-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme and a 24 km gridlength limited-area version of the Unified Model (MetUM). The targeted observations were carried out during February and March 2007 as part of the Greenland Flow Distortion Experiment, using a research aircraft based in Iceland. Sensitive area predictions using either total energy singular vectors or an ensemble transform Kalman filter were used to predict where additional observations should be made to reduce errors in the initial conditions of forecasts for northern Europe. Targeted sonde data was assimilated operationally into the MetUM. Hindcasts show that the impact of the sondes was mixed. Only two out of the five cases showed clear forecast improvement; the maximum forecast improvement seen over the verifying region was approximately 5% of the forecast error 24 hours into the forecast. These two cases are presented in more detail: in the first the improvement propagates into the verification region with a developing polar low; and in the second the improvement is associated with an upper-level trough. The impact of cycling targeted data in the background of the forecast (including the memory of previous targeted observations) is investigated. This is shown to cause a greater forecast impact, but does not necessarily lead to a greater forecast improvement. Finally, the robustness of the results is assessed using a small ensemble of forecasts.

Data assurance in opaque computations

The chess endgame is increasingly being seen through the lens of, and therefore effectively defined by, a data ‘model’ of itself. It is vital that such models are clearly faithful to the reality they purport to represent. This paper examines that issue and systems engineering responses to it, using the chess endgame as the exemplar scenario. A structured survey has been carried out of the intrinsic challenges and complexity of creating endgame data by reviewing the past pattern of errors during work in progress, surfacing in publications and occurring after the data was generated. Specific measures are proposed to counter observed classes of error-risk, including a preliminary survey of techniques for using state-of-the-art verification tools to generate EGTs that are correct by construction. The approach may be applied generically beyond the game domain.