Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options

Price movements in many commodity markets exhibit significant seasonal patterns. However, given an observed futures price, a deterministic seasonal component at the price level is not relevant for the pricing of commodity options. In contrast, this is not true for the seasonal pattern observed in the volatility of the commodity price. Analyzing an extensive sample of soybean, corn, heating oil and natural gas options, we find that seasonality in volatility is an important aspect to consider when valuing these contracts. The inclusion of an appropriate seasonality adjustment significantly reduces pricing errors in these markets and yields more improvement in valuation accuracy than increasing the number of stochastic factors.

Design and techno-economic evaluation of microbial oil production as a renewable resource for biodiesel and oleochemical production

Experimental results from the open literature have been employed for the design and techno-economic evaluation of four process flowsheets for the production of microbial oil or biodiesel. The fermentation of glucose-based media using the yeast strain Rhodosporidium toruloides has been considered. Biodiesel production was based on the exploitation of either direct transesterification (without extraction of lipids from microbial biomass) or indirect transesterifaction of extracted microbial oil. When glucose-based renewable resources are used as carbon source for an annual production capacity of 10,000 t microbial oil and zero cost of glucose (assuming development of integrated biorefineries in existing industries utilising waste or by-product streams) the estimated unitary cost of purified microbial oil is $3.4/kg. Biodiesel production via indirect transesterification of extracted microbial oil proved more cost-competitive process compared to the direct conversion of dried yeast cells. For a price of glucose of $400/t oil production cost and biodiesel production cost are estimated to be $5.5/kg oil and $5.9/kg biodiesel, correspondingly. Industrial implementation of microbial oil production from oleaginous yeast is strongly dependent on the feedstock used and on the fermentation stage where significantly higher productivities and final microbial oil concentrations should be achieved.

Acoustic and petrophysical relationships in low-shale sandstone reservoir rocks

This paper describes the measurements of the acoustic and petrophysical properties of two suites of low-shale sandstone samples from North Sea hydrocarbon reservoirs, under simulated reservoir conditions. The acoustic velocities and quality factors of the samples, saturated with different pore fluids (brine, dead oil and kerosene), were measured at a frequency of about 0.8 MHz and over a range of pressures from 5 MPa to 40 MPa. The compressional-wave velocity is strongly correlated with the shear-wave velocity in this suite of rocks. The ratio V-P/V-S varies significantly with change of both pore-fluid type and differential pressure, confirming the usefulness of this parameter for seismic monitoring of producing reservoirs. The results of quality factor measurements were compared with predictions from Biot-flow and squirt-flow loss mechanisms. The results suggested that the dominating loss in these samples is due to squirt-flow of fluid between the pores of various geometries. The contribution of the Biot-flow loss mechanism to the total loss is negligible. The compressional-wave quality factor was shown to be inversely correlated with rock permeability, suggesting the possibility of using attenuation as a permeability indicator tool in low-shale, high-porosity sandstone reservoirs.

The use of life cycle assessment to compare the environmental impact of production and feeding of conventional and genetically modified maize for broiler production in Argentina

The paper presents the methods and results of a life-cycle assessment (LCA) applied to the production of maize grain from a conventional variety compared with maize grain from a variety genetically modified to be herbicide tolerant and insect protected and to contain an enhanced oil and lysine content, and its impact when fed to broiler chickens. The findings show that there are both environmental and human health benefits of growing GM maize including lower impacts on global warming, ozone depletion, freshwater ecotoxicity and human toxicity. However, when considered in terms of the use of maize as a feed input to broiler chicken production, the benefits of the GM alternative become negligible compared to the use of conventional maize.

Effect of species and genotype on the efficiency of enrichment of poultry meat with n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids

The effect of poultry species (broiler or turkey) and genotype (Wrolstad or BUT T8 turkeys and Ross 308 or Cobb 500 broilers) on the efficiency with which dietary longchain n-3 PUFA were incorporated into poultry meat was determined. Broilers and turkeys of both genotypes were fed one of six diets varying in FA composition (two replicates per genotype x diet interaction). Diets contained 50 g/kg added oil, which was either blended vegetable oil (control), or partially replaced with linseed oil (20 or 40 g/kg diet), fish oil (20 or 40 g/kg diet), or a mixture of the two (20 g linseed oil and 20 g fish oil/kg diet). Feeds and samples of skinless breast and thigh meat were analyzed for FA. Wrolstad dark meat was slightly more responsive than BUT T8 (P = 0.046) to increased dietary 18:3 concentrations (slopes of 0.570 and 0.465, respectively). The Ross 308 was also slightly more responsive than the Cobb 500 (P= 0.002) in this parameter (slopes of 0.557 and 0.449). There were no other significant differences between the genotypes. There was some evidence (based on the estimates of the slopes and their associated standard errors) that white turkey meat was more responsive than white chicken meat to 20:5 (slopes of 0.504 and 0.289 for turkeys and broilers, respectively). There was no relationship between dietary 18:3 n-3 content and meat 20:5 and 22:6 contents. If birds do convert 18:3 to higher FA, these acids are not then deposited in the edible tissues.

Chemical, physical and electrical properties of aged dodecylbenzene: thermal ageing of mixed isomers in air

A commercial dodecylbenzene (DDB) cable oil was aged at temperatures between 90 and 135 degrees C in air and was analyzed using various analytical techniques including optical and infra-red spectroscopy and dielectric analysis. On ageing, the oil darkened, significant oxidation features were found by infra-red spectroscopy and the acid number, water content and dielectric loss all increased. Ageing in the presence of paper or aluminum did not affect the ageing process, whereas ageing was significantly modified by the presence of copper. An absorption at 680 nm ("red absorbers") was detected by ultra-violet/visible spectroscopy followed by the production of an opaque precipitate. A reaction between copper and the acid generated on ageing is thought to produce copper carboxylates, and X-ray fluorescence confirmed that copper was indeed present in both the aged oil and the precipitate. Significantly, once red absorbers were detected, the dielectric loss increased to catastrophically high values and, therefore, the appearance of these compounds may serve as a useful diagnostic indicator. The development of acidity on ageing appears to be key in initiating the destructive copper conversion reaction and hence the control of oil acidity may be key to prolonging the life of DDB cable oils.

An integrated assessment of carbon dioxide capture and storage in the UK

Geological carbon dioxide storage (CCS) has the potential to make a significant contribution to the decarbonisation of the UK. Amid concerns over maintaining security, and hence diversity, of supply, CCS could allow the continued use of coal, oil and gas whilst avoiding the CO2 emissions currently associated with fossil fuel use. This project has explored some of the geological, environmental, technical, economic and social implications of this technology. The UK is well placed to exploit CCS with a large offshore storage capacity, both in disused oil and gas fields and saline aquifers. This capacity should be sufficient to store CO2 from the power sector (at current levels) for a least one century, using well understood and therefore likely to be lower-risk, depleted hydrocarbon fields and contained parts of aquifers. It is very difficult to produce reliable estimates of the (potentially much larger) storage capacity of the less well understood geological reservoirs such as non-confined parts of aquifers. With the majority of its large coal fired power stations due to be retired during the next 15 to 20 years, the UK is at a natural decision point with respect to the future of power generation from coal; the existence of both national reserves and the infrastructure for receiving imported coal makes clean coal technology a realistic option. The notion of CCS as a ‘bridging’ or ‘stop-gap’ technology (i.e. whilst we develop ‘genuinely’ sustainable renewable energy technologies) needs to be examined somewhat critically, especially given the scale of global coal reserves. If CCS plant is built, then it is likely that technological innovation will bring down the costs of CO2 capture, such that it could become increasingly attractive. As with any capitalintensive option, there is a danger of becoming ‘locked-in’ to a CCS system. The costs of CCS in our model for UK power stations in the East Midlands and Yorkshire to reservoirs in the North Sea are between £25 and £60 per tonne of CO2 captured, transported and stored. This is between about 2 and 4 times the current traded price of a tonne of CO2 in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. In addition to the technical and economic requirements of the CCS technology, it should also be socially and environmentally acceptable. Our research has shown that, given an acceptance of the severity and urgency of addressing climate change, CCS is viewed favourably by members of the public, provided it is adopted within a portfolio of other measures. The most commonly voiced concern from the public is that of leakage and this remains perhaps the greatest uncertainty with CCS. It is not possible to make general statements concerning storage security; assessments must be site specific. The impacts of any potential leakage are also somewhat uncertain but should be balanced against the deleterious effects of increased acidification in the oceans due to uptake of elevated atmospheric CO2 that have already been observed. Provided adequate long term monitoring can be ensured, any leakage of CO2 from a storage site is likely to have minimal localised impacts as long as leaks are rapidly repaired. A regulatory framework for CCS will need to include risk assessment of potential environmental and health and safety impacts, accounting and monitoring and liability for the long term. In summary, although there remain uncertainties to be resolved through research and demonstration projects, our assessment demonstrates that CCS holds great potential for significant cuts in CO2 emissions as we develop long term alternatives to fossil fuel use. CCS can contribute to reducing emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere in the near term (i.e. peak-shaving the future atmospheric concentration of CO2), with the potential to continue to deliver significant CO2 reductions over the long term.

Modulation of cytokine secretion by pentacyclic triterpenes from olive pomace oil in human mononuclear cells

Olive pomace oil, also known as "orujo" olive oil, is a blend of refined-pomace oil and virgin olive oil, fit for human consumption. Maslinic acid, oleanolic acid, erythrodiol, and uvaol are pentacyclic triterpenes, found in the non-glyceride fraction of orujo oil, which have previously been reported to have anti-inflammatory properties. In the present work, we investigated the effect of these minor components on pro-inflammatory cytokine production by human peripheral blood mononuclear cells in six different samples. Uvaol, erythrodiol, and oleanolic acid significantly decreased IL-1 beta and IL-6 production in a dose-dependent manner. All three compounds significantly reduced TNF-alpha production at 100 mu M; however, at 10 mu M, uvaol and oleanolic acid enhanced the generation of TNF-alpha. In contrast, maslinic acid did not significantly alter the concentration of those cytokines, with the exception of a slight inhibitory effect at 100 mu M. All four triterpenes inhibited production of I-309, at 50 mu M and 100 mu M. However, uvaol enhanced I-309 production at 10 mu M. The triterpenic dialcohols had a similar effect on MIG production. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that pentacyclic triterpenes in orujo oil exhibit pro- and anti-inflammatory properties depending on chemical structure and dose, and may be useful in modulating the immune response. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhancing the oxidative stability of rice crackers by addition of the ethanolic extract of phytochemicals from Cratoxylum formosum Dyer

Craloxylum formosum Dyer is consumed throughout the year as food and medicine in Thailand. It contains large amounts of chlorogenic acid and quinic acid derivatives. The antioxidative activity of the extract was studied in refined soybean oil coating on rice crackers without any seasoning. They were stored in accelerated oxidation conditions at 40 degrees C, 80% relative humidity (RH) in the dark for 18 days. The oxidative state of each sample was monitored by analyzing of the peroxide value (PV) and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) as well as by odor analysis by quantitative descriptive analysis (QDA). The C formosum extract was more effective than alpha-tocopherol due to metal ions present in the crackers, which resulted in alpha-tocopherol being less effective as an antioxidant. Sensory odor attributes of rice crackers were related more closely to TBARS than to PV values by linear regression analysis. The present study indicated that C. formosum extract was a promising source of a natural food antioxidant and was effective in inhibiting lipid oxidation in rice crackers.

Chemical, physical, and sensory properties of dairy products enriched with conjugated linoleic acid

Recent studies have illustrated the effects of cis-9, trans-11 conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) on human health. Ruminant-derived meat, milk and dairy products are the predominant sources of cis-9, trans-11 CLA in the human diet. This study evaluated the processing properties, texture, storage characteristics, and organoleptic properties of UHT milk, Caerphilly cheese, and butter produced from a milk enriched to a level of cis-9, trans-11 CLA that has been shown to have biological effects in humans. Forty-nine early-lactation Holstein-British Friesian cows were fed total mixed rations containing 0 (control) or 45 g/kg ( on dry matter basis) of a mixture (1:2 wt/wt) of fish oil and sunflower oil during two consecutive 7-d periods to produce a control and CLA-enhanced milk, respectively. Milk produced from cows fed the control and fish and sunflower oil diets contained 0.54 and 4.68 g of total CLA/100 g of fatty acids, respectively. Enrichment of CLA in raw milk from the fish and sunflower oil diet was also accompanied by substantial increases in trans C18:1 levels, lowered C18: 0, cis-C18:1, and total saturated fatty acid concentrations, and small increases in n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid content. The CLA-enriched milk was used for the manufacture of UHT milk, butter, and cheese. Both the CLA-enhanced butter and cheese were less firm than control products. Although the sensory profiles of the CLA-enriched milk, butter, and cheese differed from those of the control products with respect to some attributes, the overall impression and flavor did not differ. In conclusion, it is feasible to produce CLA-enriched dairy products with acceptable storage and sensory characteristics.

Greater enrichment of triacylglycerol-rich lipoproteins with apolipoproteins E and C-III after meals rich in saturated fatty acids than after meals rich in unsaturated fatty acids

Background: Although there is considerable interest in the postprandial events involved in the absorption of dietary fats and the subsequent metabolism of diet-derived triacylglycerol-rich lipoproteins, little is known about the effects of meal fatty acids on the composition of these particles. Objective: We examined the effect of meal fatty acids on the lipid and apolipoprotein contents of triacylglycerol-rich lipoproteins. Design: Ten normolipidemic men received in random order a mixed meal containing 50 L, of a mixture of palm oil and cocoa butter [rich in saturated fatty acids (SFAs)], safflower oil [n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs)]. or olive oil [monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs)] on 3 occasions. Fasting and postprandial apolipoproteins B-48. B-100, E. C-II, and C-III and lipids (triacylglycerol and cholesterol) were measured in plasma fractions with Svedberg flotation rates (S-f) >400 S-f 60-400, and S-f 20 - 60. Results: Calculation of the composition of the triacylglycerol-rich lipoproteins (expressed per mole of apolipoprotein B) showed notable differences in the lipid and apolipoprotein contents of the SFA-enriched particles in the S-f > 400 and S-f 60-400 fractions. After the SFA meal, triacylglycerol-rich lipoproteins in these fractions showed significantly greater amounts of triacylglycerol and of apolipoproteins C-II (Sf 60-400 fraction only), C-III, and E than were found after the MUFA meal (P < 0.02) and more cholesterol, apolipoprotein C-III (Sf > 400 fraction only), and apolipoprotein E than after the PUFA meal (P < 0.02). Conclusions: Differences in the composition of S-f > 400 and S-f 60-400 triacylglycerol-rich lipoproteins formed after saturated compared with unsaturated fatty acid-rich meals may explain differences in the metabolic handling of dietary fats.

Volatile oxidation compounds in a conjugated linoleic acid-rich oil

In this Study, volatile oxidation compounds formed in a commercial conjugated linoleic acid (CLA)-rich oil were quantified and results compared to those found in safflower oil (rich in linoleic acid, LA). Intact oil samples and pure triacylglycerols obtained following elimination of tocopherols and minor compounds were oxidised at 60 degrees C, and volatile oxidation compounds were analysed by solid phase microextraction-gas chromatography with flame ionisation detector and mass spectrometer. Results showed that while, as expected, hexanal was the major volatile oxidation compound found in oil and triacylglycerols rich in LA, both hexanal and heptanal equally were the most abundant compounds in oil and triacylglycerols rich in CLA. Besides, samples rich in CLA also showed significantly high quantities of trans-2-octenal and trans-2-nonenal and the latter, along with heptanal, were absent in samples rich in LA. Results for CLA samples were not easy to interpret since major volatiles found are not expected from theoretically stable hydroperoxides formed in CLA and could in part derive from dioxetanes coming from 1,2-cycloadclitions of CIA with oxygen. Overall, results obtained support evidence that oxidation mechanisms of CLA may differ than those of LA. Also, it was concluded that heptanal determination could serve as a useful marker of oxidation progress in CLA-rich oils. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global oil peaking: responding to the case for 'abundant supplies of oil'

This paper examines aspects of the case against global oil peaking, and in particular sets out to answer a viewpoint that the world can have abundant supplies of oil "for years to come". Arguments supporting the latter view include: past forecasts of oil shortage have proved incorrect, so current predictions should also be discounted; many modellers depend on Hubbert's analysis but this contained fundamental flaws; new oil supply will result from reserves growth and from the wider deployment of advanced extraction technology; and that the world contains large resources of unconventional oil that can come on-stream if the production of conventional oil declines. These arguments are examined in turn and shown to be incorrect, or to need setting into a broader context. The paper concludes therefore that such arguments cannot be used to rule out calculations that the resource-limited peak in the world's production of conventional oil will occur in the near term. Moreover, peaking of conventional oil is likely to impact the world's total availability of oil where the latter includes non-conventional oil and oil substitutes. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement of apolipoprotein B-48 in the Svedberg flotation rate (Sf) > 400, Sf 60 – 400 and Sf 20 – 60 lipoprotein fractions reveals novel findings with respect to the effects of dietary fatty acids on triacylglycerol-rich lipoproteins in postmenopausal women

The present study was designed to examine whether the type of fat ingested in an initial test meal influences the response and density distribution of dietary-derived lipoproteins in the Svedberg flotation rate (Sf)>400, Sf 60 - 400 and Sf 20 - 60 lipoprotein fractions. A single-blind randomized within-subject crossover design was used to study the effects of palm oil, safflower oil, a mixture of fish and safflower oil, and olive oil on postprandial apolipoprotein (apo) B-48, retinyl ester and triacylglycerol responses in each lipoprotein fraction following an initial test meal containing one of the oils and a second standardized test meal. For all dietary oils, late postprandial (300min) concentrations of triacylglycerol and apo B-48 were significantly higher in the Sf 60 - 400 fraction than in the Sf>400 fraction (P<0.02). Significantly greater apo B-48 incremental areas under the curve (IAUCs) were also observed in the Sf 60 - 400 fraction than in the Sf>400 fraction following palm oil, safflower oil and olive oil (P<0.04), with a similar non-significant trend for fish/safflower oil. Olive oil resulted in a significantly greater apo B-48 IAUC in the Sf>400 fraction (P<0.02) than did any of the other dietary oils, as well as a tendency for a higher IAUC in the Sf 60 - 400 fraction compared with the palm, safflower and fish/safflower oils. In conclusion, we have found that the majority of intestinally derived lipoproteins present in the circulation following meals enriched with saturated, polyunsaturated or monounsaturated fatty acids are of the density and size of small chylomicrons and chylomicron remnants. Olive oil resulted in a greater apo B-48 response compared with the other dietary oils following sequential test meals, suggesting the formation of a greater number of small (Sf 60 - 400) and large (Sf>400) apo B-48-containing lipoproteins in response to this dietary oil.

Olive oil increases the number of triacylglycerol-rich chylomicron particles compared with other oils: an effect retained when a second standard meal is fed

Background: Compared with the postprandial events after a single meal, different events occur when a second meal is ingested 4–6 h after a first meal. There is a rapid appearance of chylomicrons in the circulation carrying fat ingested with the first meal, with a peak 1 h after the second meal. Objective: Our goal was to examine whether different dietary oils have effects on the storage of triacylglycerol as a result of differences in their digestion, absorption, and incorporation into chylomicrons. Design: A single-blind, randomized, within-subject crossover design was used to study the effects of palm oil, safflower oil, a mixture of fish and safflower oil, and olive oil on postprandial apolipoprotein (apo) B-48, retinyl ester, and triacylglycerol in the Sf > 400 fraction with the use of a sequential meal protocol. Results: For triacylglycerol, retinyl ester, and apo B-48, the time to reach peak concentration was significantly earlier after the second meal than after the first meal (P < 0.005). This was apparent with each of the dietary oils. The pattern of the apo B-48 response differed significantly among the dietary oils, with olive oil resulting in higher concentrations after both meals (P = 0.003). The ratio of triacylglycerol to apo B-48 was significantly lower after olive oil feeding than after feeding with the other oils (P = 0.02). Conclusions: The rapid entry of chylomicrons after the ingestion of a second meal 5 h after a first meal was seen with all of the oils investigated. The short-term ingestion of olive oil produced more chylomicrons than did the other dietary oils, which may have been due to differences in the metabolic handling of olive oil within the gut.