A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2°C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2–3°C, and >3°C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50°N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3°C than for <2°C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of ≈1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3°C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.

Land-cover classification from airborne LIDAR data fused with aerial optical images

Airborne LIght Detection And Ranging (LIDAR) provides accurate height information for objects on the earth, which makes LIDAR become more and more popular in terrain and land surveying. In particular, LIDAR data offer vital and significant features for land-cover classification which is an important task in many application domains. In this paper, an unsupervised approach based on an improved fuzzy Markov random field (FMRF) model is developed, by which the LIDAR data, its co-registered images acquired by optical sensors, i.e. aerial color image and near infrared image, and other derived features are fused effectively to improve the ability of the LIDAR system for the accurate land-cover classification. In the proposed FMRF model-based approach, the spatial contextual information is applied by modeling the image as a Markov random field (MRF), with which the fuzzy logic is introduced simultaneously to reduce the errors caused by the hard classification. Moreover, a Lagrange-Multiplier (LM) algorithm is employed to calculate a maximum A posteriori (MAP) estimate for the classification. The experimental results have proved that fusing the height data and optical images is particularly suited for the land-cover classification. The proposed approach works very well for the classification from airborne LIDAR data fused with its coregistered optical images and the average accuracy is improved to 88.9%.

Decreased accommodation during decompensation of distance exotropia

Objective. Disparity cues can be a major drive to accommodation via the CA/C (convergence accommodation to convergence) linkage but, on decompensation of exotropia, disparity cues are extinguished by suppression, so this drive is lost. This study investigated accommodation and vergence responses to disparity, blur and proximal cues in a group of distance exotropes aged between 4-11 years both during decompensation and when exotropic. Methods. 19 participants with distance exotropia were tested using a PlusoptiXSO4 photorefractor set in a remote haploscopic device which assessed simultaneous vergence and accommodation to a range of targets incorporating different combinations of blur, disparity and proximal cues at four fixation distances between 2m and 33cm. Responses on decompensation were compared to those from the same children when their deviation was controlled. Results. Manifest exotropia was more common in the more impoverished cue conditions. When decompensated for near, mean accommodation gain for the all-cue (naturalistic) target reduced significantly (p<0.0001), with resultant mean under-accommodation of 2.33D at 33cm. The profile of near cues usage changed after decompensation, with blur and proximity driving residual responses, but these remaining cues did not compensate for loss of accommodation caused by the removal of disparity. Conclusions. Accommodation often reduces on decompensation of distance exotropia as the drive from convergence is extinguished, providing a further reason to try to prevent decompensation for near.

Evidence that convergence rather than accommodation controls intermittent distance exotropia

Purpose. This study considered whether vergence drives accommodation or accommodation drives vergence during the control of distance exotropia for near fixation. High accommodative convergence to accommodation (AC/A) ratios are often used to explain this control, but the role of convergence to drive accommodation (the CA/C relationship) is rarely considered. Atypical CA/C characteristics could equally, or better, explain common clinical findings. Methods. 19 distance exotropes, aged 4-11 years, were compared while controlling their deviation with 27 non-exotropic controls aged 5-9 years. Simultaneous vergence and accommodation responses were measured to a range of targets incorporating different combinations of blur, disparity and looming cues at four fixation distances between 2m and 33cm. Stimulus and response AC/A and CA/C ratios were calculated. Results. Accommodation responses for near targets (p=0.017) response gains (p=0.026) were greater in the exotropes than the controls. Despite higher clinical stimulus AC/A ratios, the distance exotropes showed lower laboratory response AC/A ratios (p=0.02), but significantly higher CA/C ratios (p=0.02). All the exotropes, whether the angle changed most with lenses (“controlled by accommodation”) or on occlusion (“controlled by fusion”), used binocular disparity not blur as their main cue to target distance. Conclusions. Increased vergence demand to control intermittent distance exotropia for near also drives significantly more accommodation. Minus lens therapy is more likely to act by correcting over-accommodation driven by controlling convergence, rather than by inducing blur-driven vergence. The use of convergence as a major drive to accommodation explains many clinical characteristics of distance exotropia, including apparently high near stimulus AC/A ratios.

A data framework for measuring the energy consumption of the non-domestic building stock

The transition to a low-carbon economy urgently demands better information on the drivers of energy consumption. UK government policy has prioritized energy efficiency in the built stock as a means of carbon reduction, but the sector is historically information poor, particularly the non-domestic building stock. This paper presents the results of a pilot study that investigated whether and how property and energy consumption data might be combined for non-domestic energy analysis. These data were combined in a ‘Non-Domestic Energy Efficiency Database’ to describe the location and physical attributes of each property and its energy consumption. The aim was to support the generation of a range of energy-efficiency statistics for the industrial, commercial and institutional sectors of the non-domestic building stock, and to provide robust evidence for national energy-efficiency and carbon-reduction policy development and monitoring. The work has brought together non-domestic energy data, property data and mapping in a ‘data framework’ for the first time. The results show what is possible when these data are integrated and the associated difficulties. A data framework offers the potential to inform energy-efficiency policy formation and to support its monitoring at a level of detail not previously possible.

Radar scattering from ice aggregates using the horizontally aligned oblate spheroid approximation

The assumed relationship between ice particle mass and size is profoundly important in radar retrievals of ice clouds, but, for millimeter-wave radars, shape and preferred orientation are important as well. In this paper the authors first examine the consequences of the fact that the widely used ‘‘Brown and Francis’’ mass–size relationship has often been applied to maximumparticle dimension observed by aircraftDmax rather than to the mean of the particle dimensions in two orthogonal directions Dmean, which was originally used by Brown and Francis. Analysis of particle images reveals that Dmax ’ 1.25Dmean, and therefore, for clouds for which this mass–size relationship holds, the consequences are overestimates of ice water content by around 53% and of Rayleigh-scattering radar reflectivity factor by 3.7 dB. Simultaneous radar and aircraft measurements demonstrate that much better agreement in reflectivity factor is provided by using this mass–size relationship with Dmean. The authors then examine the importance of particle shape and fall orientation for millimeter-wave radars. Simultaneous radar measurements and aircraft calculations of differential reflectivity and dual-wavelength ratio are presented to demonstrate that ice particles may usually be treated as horizontally aligned oblate spheroids with an axial ratio of 0.6, consistent with them being aggregates. An accurate formula is presented for the backscatter cross section apparent to a vertically pointing millimeter-wave radar on the basis of a modified version of Rayleigh–Gans theory. It is then shown that the consequence of treating ice particles as Mie-scattering spheres is to substantially underestimate millimeter-wave reflectivity factor when millimeter-sized particles are present, which can lead to retrieved ice water content being overestimated by a factor of 4.h

Convergence accommodation trumps accommodative convergence

Purpose. This symposium contribution presents research that shows that disparity cues within a near stimulus drive not only vergence but also most of the accommodation. Be-cause blur is a weaker cue, accommodative convergence is therefore only of minor significance for most individuals. Methods. The Infant Vision Laboratory at the University of Reading uses a Power Ref II photorefractor to collect simultaneous accommodation and convergence data from participants fixating targets moving in depth. By manipulating target characteristics, we have been able to test how blur, disparity and proximal cues each contribute to driving responses. Results. Results from a series of studies over the past 12 years have contributed to a coherent body of evidence suggesting that disparity cues override blur and proximity cues in most individuals. Some strabismic patients do use blur as a more strongly weighted cue, and this strategy could contribute to their symptoms, clinical characteristics and response to treatment. Conclusion. Although convergence accommodation is extremely difficult to measure clinically, clinicians should be aware of its importance in binocular vision and strabismus. Although CA/C relationships typically seem more important than AC/A, bo th only partly explain the interplay between convergence and accommodation.

The UK's Electoral Reform Referendum of May 2011

The UK’s second nationwide referendum, held in May 2011, offers rich opportunities for analysing the dynamics of a referendum campaign. The articles gathered together in this symposium address three themes. The first concerns the determinants and dynamics of public opinion during a referendum campaign, the second relates to the potential for interaction between the referendum and simultaneous elections, and the third focuses on coverage of the referendum in the media. Following a brief outline of the background to the referendum, this paper introduces the contribution that each article makes to these themes.

Drivers of change in mountain farming in Slovakia: from socialist collectivisation to the Common Agricultural Policy

The transformations in Slovak agriculture from the 1950s to the present day, considering both the generic (National and EU) and site-specific (local) drivers of landscape change, were analysed in five mountain study areas in the country. An interdisciplinary approach included analysis of population trends, evaluation of land use and landscape change combined with exploration of the perceptions of local stakeholders and results of previous biodiversity studies. The generic processes active from the 1950s to 1970s were critical for all study areas with impacts lasting right up until the present day. Agricultural collectivisation, agricultural intensification and land abandonment had negative effects in all study areas. However, the precise impacts on the landscape were different in the different study areas due to site-specific attributes (e.g. population trends, geographic localisation and local attitudes and opportunities), and these played a decisive role in determining the trajectory of change. Regional contrasts in rural development between these territories have increased in the last two decades, also due to the imperfect preconditions of governmental support. The recent Common Agricultural Policy developments are focused on maintenance of intensive large-scale farming rather than direct enhancement of agro-biodiversity and rural development at the local scale. In this context, local, site-specific attributes can and must form an essential part of rural development plans, to meet the demands for management of the diversity of agricultural mountain landscapes and facilitate the multifunctional role of agriculture.

Western Britain in late antiquity

The relevance of the concept of ‘Late Antiquity’ to fifth- and sixth-century Western Britain is demonstrated with reference to the archaeology of the British kingdom of Dumnonia, and then used to reinterpret portable material culture. Themes discussed include the dating of Palestinian amphorae in Britain, the extent of the settlement at Tintagel, tin as a motivation for Byzantine trade, the re-use of Roman-period artefacts, and ‘Anglo-Saxon’ artefacts on Western British sites. The central paradoxes of Late Antiquity: simultaneous conservatism and fluidity, continuity and innovation, are seen to illuminate ‘Dark Age’ Britain and offer new avenues for future research.

Response time of the high-latitude dayside ionosphere to sudden changes in the north-south component of the IMF

The time scale of the response of the high-latitude dayside ionospheric flow to changes in the North-South component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been investigated by examining the time delays between corresponding sudden changes. Approximately 40 h of simultaneous IMF and ionospheric flow data have been examined, obtained by the AMPTE-UKS and -IRM spacecraft and the EISCAT “Polar” experiment, respectively, in which 20 corresponding sudden changes have been identified. Ten of these changes were associated with southward turnings of the IMF, and 10 with northward turnings. It has been found that the corresponding flow changes occurred simultaneously over the whole of the “Polar” field-of-view, extending more than 2° in invariant latitude, and that the ionospheric response delay following northward turnings is the same as that following southward turnings, though the form of the response is different in the two cases. The shortest response time, 5.5 ± 3.2 min, is found in the early- to mid-afternoon sector, increasing to 9.5 ± 3.0 min in the mid-morning sector, and to 9.5 ± 3.1 min near to dusk. These times represent the delays in the appearance of perturbed flows in the “Polar” field-of-view following the arrival of IMF changes at the subsolar magnetopause. Overall, the results agree very well with those derived by Etemadi et al. (1988, Planet. Space Sci.36, 471) from a general cross-correlation analysis of the IMF Bz and “Polar” beam-swinging vector flow data.

Flow in the high latitude ionosphere: measurements at 15s resolution made using the EISCAT ‘Polar’ experiment

We present a first overview of flows in the high latitude ionosphere observed at 15 s resolution using the U.K.-Polar EISCAT experiment. Data are described from experiments conducted on two days, 27 October 1984 and 29 August 1985, which together span the local times between about 0200 and 2130MLT and cover five different regions of ionospheric flow. With increasing local time, these are: the dawn auroral zone flow cell, the dayside region of low background flows equatorward of the flow cells, the dusk auroral zone flow cell, the boundary region between the dusk auroral zone and the polar cap, and the evening polar cap. Flows in both the equatorward and poleward portions of the auroral zone cells appear to be relatively smooth, while in the central region of high speed flow considerable variations are generally present. These have the form of irregular fluctuations on a wide range of time scales in the early morning dawn cell, and impulsive wave-like variations with periods of a few minutes in the afternoon dusk cell. In the dayside region between the flow cells, the ionosphere is often essentially stagnant for long intervals, but low amplitude ULF waves with a period of about 5 min can also occur and persist for many cycles. These conditions are punctuated at one to two hour intervals by sudden ‘flow burst’ events with impulsively generated damped wave trains. Initial burst flows are generally directed poleward and can peak at line-of-sight speeds in excess of 1 km s^{−1} after perhaps 45 s. Flows in the polar cap are reasonably smooth on time scales of a few minutes and show no evidence for the presence of ULF waves. Under most, but not all, of the above conditions, the beam-swinging algorithm used to determine background vector flows should produce meaningful results. Comparison of these flow data with simultaneous plasma and magnetic field measurements in the solar wind, made by the AMPTE IRM and UKS spacecraft, emphasizes the strong control exerted on high latitude flows by the north-south component of the IMF.

Global burned-land estimation in Latin America using MODIS composite data

This paper presents results of the AQL2004 project, which has been develope within the GOFC-GOLD Latin American network of remote sensing and forest fires (RedLatif). The project intended to obtain monthly burned-land maps of the entire region, from Mexico to Patagonia, using MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) reflectance data. The project has been organized in three different phases: acquisition and preprocessing of satellite data; discrimination of burned pixels; and validation of results. In the first phase, input data consisting of 32-day composites of MODIS 500-m reflectance data generated by the Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF) of the University of Maryland (College Park, Maryland, U.S.A.) were collected and processed. The discrimination of burned areas was addressed in two steps: searching for "burned core" pixels using postfire spectral indices and multitemporal change detection and mapping of burned scars using contextual techniques. The validation phase was based on visual analysis of Landsat and CBERS (China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite) images. Validation of the burned-land category showed an agreement ranging from 30% to 60%, depending on the ecosystem and vegetation species present. The total burned area for the entire year was estimated to be 153 215 km2. The most affected countries in relation to their territory were Cuba, Colombia, Bolivia, and Venezuela. Burned areas were found in most land covers; herbaceous vegetation (savannas and grasslands) presented the highest proportions of burned area, while perennial forest had the lowest proportions. The importance of croplands in the total burned area should be taken with reserve, since this cover presented the highest commission errors. The importance of generating systematic products of burned land areas for different ecological processes is emphasized.

Methane emissions from cattle: estimates from short-term measurements using a Green Feed system compared with measurements obtained using respiration chambers or sulphur hexafluoride tracer

The Green Feed (GF) system (C-Lock Inc., Rapid City, USA) is used to estimate total daily methane emissions of individual cattle using short-term measurements obtained over several days. Our objective was to compare measurements of methane emission by growing cattle obtained using the GF system with measurements using respiration chambers (RC)or sulphur hexafluoride tracer (SF6). It was hypothesised that estimates of methane emission for individual animals and treatments would be similar for GF compared to RC or SF6 techniques. In experiment 1, maize or grass silage-based diets were fed to four growing Holstein heifers, whilst for experiment 2, four different heifers were fed four haylage treatments. Both experiments were a 4 × 4 Latin square design with 33 day periods. Green Feed measurements of methane emission were obtained over 7 days (days 22–28) and com-pared to subsequent RC measurements over 4 days (days 29–33). For experiment 3, 12growing heifers rotationally grazed three swards for 26 days, with simultaneous GF and SF6 measurements over two 4 day measurement periods (days 15–19 and days 22–26).Overall methane emissions (g/day and g/kg dry matter intake [DMI]) measured using GF in experiments 1 (198 and 26.6, respectively) and 2 (208 and 27.8, respectively) were similar to averages obtained using RC (218 and 28.3, respectively for experiment 1; and 209 and 27.7, respectively, for experiment 2); but there was poor concordance between the two methods (0.1043 for experiments 1 and 2 combined). Overall, methane emissions measured using SF6 were higher (P<0.001) than GF during grazing (186 vs. 164 g/day), but there was significant (P<0.01) concordance between the two methods (0.6017). There were fewer methane measurements by GF under grazing conditions in experiment 3 (1.60/day) com-pared to indoor measurements in experiments 1 (2.11/day) and 2 (2.34/day). Significant treatment effects on methane emission measured using RC and SF6 were not evident for GF measurements, and the ranking for treatments and individual animals differed using the GF system. We conclude that under our conditions of use the GF system was unable to detectsignificant treatment and individual animal differences in methane emissions that were identified using both RC and SF6techniques, in part due to limited numbers and timing ofmeasurements obtained. Our data suggest that successful use of the GF system is reliant on the number and timing of measurements obtained relative to diurnal patterns of methane emission.

A dystrophin-immunoreactive protein in mammalian brain.

Dystrophin is expressed only in muscle and brain, but is absent from all tissues of the adult mdx mouse, a mutant with a single base substitution in the dystrophin gene. The brains of both normal and mdx mice contain a protein of approximately 230 kDa that is recognised by anti-dystrophin antibodies raised to the N-terminal region of the rod-like domain. Although the N-terminal and central rod regions of dystrophin share structural homologies with spectrin, the 230-kDa protein represents neither of the presently described forms of brain spectrin by a variety of criteria (molecular weight, cerebellar localisation, and developmental regulation) and is distinct from the product of the dystrophin gene. Studies of mdx and normal mouse brain show different postnatal developmental regulation of the 230-kDa dystrophin-immunoreactive protein.