Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UKMeteorological Office Hadley Centre’s climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is underestimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

Out of the ivory tower: the impact of wider social contact on the values, religious beliefs and identities of Chinese postgraduate students in the UK

This article explores the impact of wider social contact on the experience of Chinese postgraduate students of adaptation to life in the UK. Focus group and individual interviews were conducted with a group of 11 Chinese students on an MA programme at a university in southern England and individual interviews with three representatives of a local volunteer group (LVG) offering support to the Chinese students. Although it was perceived that the students’ support needs were not adequately met by the University, the additional support offered outside the University was unanimously valued and considered as enriching their cultural and linguistic experiences and meeting their expectations. However, frequent social contact with the LVG, whose members were mostly Christians, also had an impact on their values, religious beliefs and identities. In a discussion framed within the sociological perspective of proselytization or religious conversion and the broad framework of international education and globalization, the different responses to this contact are described in terms of believers, doubters, empathisers and commentators. Implications are considered for universities, people involved in providing social support for international students, and sponsors of international students.

Analysis of time-related metabolic fluctuations induced by ethionine in the rat

The time-course of metabolic events following response to a model hepatotoxin ethionine (800 mg/kg) was investigated over a 7 day period in rats using high-resolution (1)H NMR spectroscopic analysis of urine and multivariate statistics. Complementary information was obtained by multivariate analysis of (1)H MAS NMR spectra of intact liver and by conventional histopathology and clinical chemistry of blood plasma. (1)H MAS NMR spectra of liver showed toxin-induced lipidosis 24 h postdose consistent with the steatosis observed by histopathology, while hypertaurinuria was suggestive of liver injury. Early biochemical changes in urine included elevation of guanidinoacetate, suggesting impaired methylation reactions. Urinary increases in 5-oxoproline and glycine suggested disruption of the gamma-glutamyl cycle. Signs of ATP depletion together with impairment of the energy metabolism were given from the decreased levels in tricarboxylic acid cycle intermediates, the appearance of ketone bodies in urine, the depletion of hepatic glucose and glycogen, and also hypoglycemia. The observed increase in nicotinuric acid in urine could be an indication of an increase in NAD catabolism, a possible consequence of ATP depletion. Effects on the gut microbiota were suggested by the observed urinary reductions in the microbial metabolites 3-/4-hydroxyphenyl propionic acid, dimethylamine, and tryptamine. At later stages of toxicity, there was evidence of kidney damage, as indicated by the tubular damage observed by histopathology, supported by increased urinary excretion of lactic acid, amino acids, and glucose. These studies have given new insights into mechanisms of ethionine-induced toxicity and show the value of multisystem level data integration in the understanding of experimental models of toxicity or disease.

Strigolactone analogues induce suicidal seed germination of Striga spp. in soil

Striga hermonthica and Striga asiatica are obligate root parasites that cause serious problems in the production of staple cereal crops in Africa. Because of the high levels of infestation, there is an urgent need to control these weeds. A potentially useful control option is depletion of the soil seed bank by suicidal germination, which involves germination of the seeds in the absence of host plants. Suicidal germination is often mentioned in the literature, but not considered realistic, because of the alleged untimely decomposition of the stimulants in the soil, despite the fact that some encouraging results were reported around 1980. The alleged instability has prevented active research in this direction for the past 20–25 years. Five newly designed synthetic germination stimulants were investigated as candidates for suicidal germination. An important issue is the persistence of these stimulants in soil. Packets with Striga spp. seeds were put in pots with soil and then treated with aqueous solutions of the stimulants. All five compounds induced germination under these conditions, with percentages varying between 18% and 98% depending on stimulant and species. There were no noticeable signs of decomposition of the stimulants. The best performing stimulant is derived from 1-tetralone. We conclude that synthetic strigolactones analogues have excellent prospects for use in combating parasitic weeds. Further testing will be needed to evaluate whether such prospects can be realised in the field.

Contesting Thistlewood: slavery, agency and the limits of representation

This piece is a contribution to the exhibition catalogue of Barbadian / Canadian artist Joscelyn Gardner's exhibition, 'Bleeding & Breeding' curated by Olexander Wlasenko, January 14-February 12, 2012 in the Station Gallery, Whitby, Ontario, Canada. The piece examines the ways in which Gardner's Creole Portraits II (2007) and Creole Portraits III (2009) issue a provocative and carefully crafted contestation to the journals of the slave-owner and amateur botanist Thomas Thistlewood. It argues that while Thistlewood’s journals make raced and gendered bodies seemingly available to knowledge, incorporating them within the colonial archive as signs of subjection, Gardener’s portraits disrupt these acts of history and knowledge. Her artistic response marks a radical departure from the significant body of scholarship that has drawn on the Thistlewood journals to date. Creatively contesting his narratives’ dispossession of Creole female subjects and yet aware of the problems of innocent recovery, her works style representations that retain the consciousness and effect of historical erasure. Through an oxymoronic aesthetic that assembles a highly crafted verisimilitude alongside the condition of invisibility and brings atrocity into the orbit of the aesthetic, these portraits force us to question what stakes are involved in bringing the lives of the enslaved and violated back into regimes of representation.

Effect on components of the intestinal microflora and plasma neuropeptide levels of feeding Lactobacillus delbrueckii, Bifidobacterium lactis, and inulin to adult and elderly rats

The aim of this study was to compare the effects of the mixture of Lactobacillus delbrueckii subsp. rhamnosus strain GG, Bifidobacterium lactis Bb12, and inulin on intestinal populations of lactobacilli, bifidobacteria, and enterobacteria in adult and elderly rats fed the same (in quality and quantity) diet. The portal plasma levels of two neuropeptides, neuropeptide Y (NPY) and peptide YY (PYY), were also evaluated to assess the physiological consequences of the synbiotic treatment for the gastrointestinal (GI) tracts of rats of different ages. Adult (n = 24) and elderly (n = 24) male rats were fed the AIN-93 M maintenance diet. After 2 weeks of adaptation, the diet of 12 rats of each age group was supplemented with 8% inulin and with strains GG and Bb12 to provide 2.2 x 10(9) CFU of each strain g(-1) of the diet. Blood and different regions of the GI tract were sampled from all rats after 21 days of the treatment. Treatment with the mixture of strain GG, strain BB12, and inulin induced significantly different changes in the numbers of lactobacilli, bifidobacteria, and enterobacteria of the stomach, small intestine, cecum, and colon microflora. Moreover, the GG, BB12, and inulin mixture increased the concentrations of NPY and PYY for adult rats. For the elderly animals, the PYY concentration was not changed, while the NPY concentration was decreased by treatment with the GG, BB12, and inulin mixture. The results of the present study indicate that the physiological status of the GI tract, and not just diet, has a major role in the regulation of important groups of the GI bacteria community, since even the outcome of the dietary modification with synbiotics depends on the ages of the animals.

Enhanced levels of cold shock proteins in Listeria monocytogenes LO28 upon exposure to low temperature and high hydrostatic pressure

Listeria monocytogenes is a psychrotrophic food-borne pathogen that is problematic for the food industry because of its ubiquitous distribution in nature and its ability to grow at low temperatures and in the presence of high salt concentrations. Here we demonstrate that the process of adaptation to low temperature after cold shock includes elevated levels of cold shock proteins (CSPs) and that the levels of CSPs are also elevated after treatment with high hydrostatic pressure (HHP). Two-dimensional gel electrophoresis combined with Western blotting performed with anti-CspB of Bacillus subtilis was used to identify four 7-kDa proteins, designated Csp1, Csp2, Csp3, and Csp4. In addition, Southern blotting revealed four chromosomal DNA fragments that reacted with a csp probe, which also indicated that a CSP family is present in L. monocytogenes LO28. After a cold shock in which the temperature was decreased from 37°C to 10°C the levels of Csp1 and Csp3 increased 10- and 3.5-fold, respectively, but the levels of Csp2 and Csp4 were not elevated. Pressurization of L. monocytogenes LO28 cells resulted in 3.5- and 2-fold increases in the levels of Csp1 and Csp2, respectively. Strikingly, the level of survival after pressurization of cold-shocked cells was 100-fold higher than that of cells growing exponentially at 37°C. These findings imply that cold-shocked cells are protected from HHP treatment, which may affect the efficiency of combined preservation techniques.

The influence of powdery mildew infection on photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence, leaf chlorophyll and carotenoid content of three woody plant species

The effect of powdery mildew development on photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence, leaf chlorophyll and carotenoid concentrations on three woody plants frequently planted in urban environments was studied. Rates of photosynthetic CO2 fixation were rapidly reduced in two of the three genotypes tested prior to visible signs of infection. Effects on chlorophyll fluorescence (Fo, Fv/Fo, Fv/Fm), leaf chlorophyll and carotenoid content were not manifest until >25 per cent of the leaf area was observed to be covered by mycelial growth indicating reduced photo-synthetic rates during the early stages of infection were not due to degradation of the leaf chloroplast structure. Observation of the fluorescence transient (OJIP curves) showed powdery mildew infection impairs photosynthetic electron transport system by reducing the size but not heterogeneity of the plastoquninone pool, effecting both the acceptor and donor side of photosystem II. Impairment of the photosynthetic electron transport system was reflected by reduced values of a performance index used in this investigation as a measure of photochemical events within photosystem II electron transport. In addition interpretation of the fluorescence data indicated powdery mildew infection may impair the photo-protective process that facilitates the dissipation of excess energy within leaf tissue.

Coassembly in binary mixtures of peptide amphiphiles containing oppositely charged residues

The self-assembly in water of designed peptide amphiphile (PA) C16-ETTES containing two anionic residues and its mixtures with C16-KTTKS containing two cationic residues has been investigated. Multiple spectroscopy, microscopy, and scattering techniques are used to examine ordering extending from the β-sheet structures up to the fibrillar aggregate structure. The peptide amphiphiles both comprise a hexadecyl alkyl chain and a charged pentapeptide headgroup containing two charged residues. For C16-ETTES, the critical aggregation concentration was determined by fluorescence experiments. FTIR and CD spectroscopy were used to examine β-sheet formation. TEM revealed highly extended tape nanostructures with some striped regions corresponding to bilayer structures viewed edge-on. Small-angle X-ray scattering showed a main 5.3 nm bilayer spacing along with a 3 nm spacing. These spacings are assigned respectively to predominant hydrated bilayers and a fraction of dehydrated bilayers. Signs of cooperative self-assembly are observed in the mixtures, including reduced bundling of peptide amphiphile aggregates (extended tape structures) and enhanced β-sheet formation.

Comparison of polar ozone loss rates simulated by one-dimensional and three-dimensional models with Match observations in recent Antarctic and Arctic winters

Simulations of ozone loss rates using a three-dimensional chemical transport model and a box model during recent Antarctic and Arctic winters are compared with experimental loss rates. The study focused on the Antarctic winter 2003, during which the first Antarctic Match campaign was organized, and on Arctic winters 1999/2000, 2002/2003. The maximum ozone loss rates retrieved by the Match technique for the winters and levels studied reached 6 ppbv/sunlit hour and both types of simulations could generally reproduce the observations at 2-sigma error bar level. In some cases, for example, for the Arctic winter 2002/2003 at 475 K level, an excellent agreement within 1-sigma standard deviation level was obtained. An overestimation was also found with the box model simulation at some isentropic levels for the Antarctic winter and the Arctic winter 1999/2000, indicating an overestimation of chlorine activation in the model. Loss rates in the Antarctic show signs of saturation in September, which have to be considered in the comparison. Sensitivity tests were performed with the box model in order to assess the impact of kinetic parameters of the ClO-Cl2O2 catalytic cycle and total bromine content on the ozone loss rate. These tests resulted in a maximum change in ozone loss rates of 1.2 ppbv/sunlit hour, generally in high solar zenith angle conditions. In some cases, a better agreement was achieved with fastest photolysis of Cl2O2 and additional source of total inorganic bromine but at the expense of overestimation of smaller ozone loss rates derived later in the winter.

What (science for) adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture? A commentary on “A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050” by J. Ramirez-Villegas, M. Salazar, A. Jarvis, C. E. Navarro-Valcines.

Climate change is putting Colombian agriculture under significant stress and, if no adaptation is made, the latter will be severely impacted during the next decades. Ramirez-Villegas et al. (2012) set out a government-led, top-down, techno-scientific proposal for a way forward by which Colombian agriculture could adapt to climate change. However, this proposal largely overlooks the root causes of vulnerability of Colombian agriculture, and of smallholders in particular. I discuss some of the hidden assumptions underpinning this proposal and of the arguments employed by Ramirez-Villegas et al., based on existing literature on Colombian agriculture and the wider scientific debate on adaptation to climate change. While technical measures may play an important role in the adaptation of Colombian agriculture to climate change, I question whether the actions listed in the proposal alone and specifically for smallholders, truly represent priority issues. I suggest that by i) looking at vulnerability before adaptation, ii) contextualising climate change as one of multiple exposures, and iii) truly putting smallholders at the centre of adaptation, i.e. to learn about and with them, different and perhaps more urgent priorities for action can be identified. Ultimately, I argue that what is at stake is not only a list of adaptation measures but, more importantly, the scientific approach from which priorities for action are identified. In this respect, I propose that transformative rather than technical fix adaptation represents a better approach for Colombian agriculture and smallholders in particular, in the face of climate change.

‘I can’t … I won’t?’ International students at the threshold of social interaction

This mixed-method study tracked social interaction and adaptation among 20 international postgraduates on a 1-year programme in the UK, examining assumptions that language proficiency and interactional engagement directly underpin sociocultural adaptation. Participants remained frustrated by a perceived ‘threshold’ barring successful interaction with English speakers, while reporting reluctance to take up available opportunities, independent of language proficiency and sociocultural adaptation. We challenge linear models of adaptation and call for assistance to international students in crossing the threshold to successful interaction.

Observed adaptation to climate change as initiated transition

This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping), to building adaptive capacity, to implementing actions and to creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These government initiatives have stimulated a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (and the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The sectors requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure have invested more heavily than those that do not in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Thus we find a higher level of adaptation activity by the water supply and flood defence sectors. Sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that the UK government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost in some areas. We also conclude that these actions may have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries.

Palaeobiology of the medieval population of Albano (Rome, Italy): a combined morphological and biomolecular approach

Recent years have seen increased interest in skeletal populations from the Imperial Roman Age in Italy, but much less is known about diet and standards of living in the subsequent medieval period. To fill this gap, we conducted a morphological analysis of human remains from Albano, an Italian town near Rome, as well as a stable isotope analysis of bone collagen to reconstruct diet. The sample was recovered from a Medieval cemetery (1040–1220 cal. yr. BP) located in the gardens of the historical Palazzo Doria Pamphili in Albano. A minimum number of 40 individuals (31 adults and 9 sub-adults) were examined using standard methods. Though the general health status of the population was good, signs of cribra orbitalia and diffuse enthesopathies were noted during the morphological examination. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses of the bone collagen from 24 adult humans and three faunal bones indicate that the diet of the population may be described as predominantly terrestrial and C3-plant based although the data for some of the individuals suggest a modest consumption of C4-(millet) based or aquatic proteins. No evidence of significant dietary differences between the sexes was found. The comparison of the isotope data from Albano with those from populations recovered in the same region is consistent with a shift from a terrestrial, possibly plant foods-dominated subsistence in the Early Middle Ages to a diet with a higher contribution from animal proteins, both terrestrial and aquatic, in the Later Middle Ages.