Assessing the impact of occupant behaviour on the electricity consumption for lighting and small power in office buildings

Lighting and small power will typically account for more than half of the total electricity consumption in an office building. Significant variations in electricity used by different tenants suggest that occupants can have a significant impact on the electricity demand for these end-uses. Yet current modelling techniques fail to represent the interaction between occupant and the building environment in a realistic manner. Understanding the impact of such behaviours is crucial to improve the methodology behind current energy modelling techniques, aiming to minimise the significant gap between predicted and in-use performance of buildings. A better understanding of the impact of occupant behaviour on electricity consumption can also inform appropriate energy saving strategies focused on behavioural change. This paper reports on a study aiming to assess the intent of occupants to switch off lighting and appliances when not in use in office buildings. Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour, the assessment takes the form of a questionnaire and investigates three predictors to behaviour individually: 1) behavioural attitude; 2) subjective norms; 3) perceived behavioural control. The paper details the development of the assessment procedure and discusses preliminary findings from the study. The questionnaire results are compared against electricity consumption data for individual zones within a multi-tenanted office building. Initial results demonstrate a statistically significant correlation between perceived behavioural control and energy consumption for lighting and small power

Drivers of increased soil respiration in a poplar coppice exposed to elevated CO2

Background and Aims. The response of soil respiration (SR) to elevated CO2 is driven by a number of processes and feedbacks. This work aims to i) detect the effect of elevated CO2 on soil respiration during the second rotation of a short rotation forest, at two levels of N availability; and ii) identify the main drivers behind any changes in soil respiration. Methods. A poplar plantation (POP-EUROFACE) was grown for two rotations of three years under elevated CO2 maintained by a FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment) technique. Root biomass, litter production and soil respiration were followed for two consecutive years after coppice. Results. In the plantation, the stimulation of fine root and litter production under elevated CO2 observed at the beginning of the rotation declined over time. Soil respiration (SR) was continuously stimulated by elevated CO2, with a much larger enhancement during the growing (up to 111 %) than in the dormant season (40 %). The SR increase at first appeared to be due to the increase in fine root biomass, but at the end of the 2nd rotation was supported by litter decomposition and the availability of labile C. Soil respiration increase under elevated CO2 was not affected by N availability. Conclusions. The stimulation of SR by elevated CO2 was sustained by the decomposition of above and belowground litter and by the greater availability of easily decomposable substrates into the soil. C losses through SR were greater in the last year of the plantation due to a lack of effect of elevated CO2 on C allocation to roots, reducing the potential for C accumulation.

Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters: the export coefficient modelling approach

A manageable, relatively inexpensive model was constructed to predict the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from a complex catchment to its drainage system. The model used an export coefficient approach, calculating the total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) load delivered annually to a water body as the sum of the individual loads exported from each nutrient source in its catchment. The export coefficient modelling approach permits scaling up from plot-scale experiments to the catchment scale, allowing application of findings from field experimental studies at a suitable scale for catchment management. The catchment of the River Windrush, a tributary of the River Thames, UK, was selected as the initial study site. The Windrush model predicted nitrogen and phosphorus loading within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 0.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1989. The export coefficient modelling approach was then validated by application in a second research basin, the catchment of Slapton Ley, south Devon, which has markedly different catchment hydrology and land use. The Slapton model was calibrated within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 2.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1986. Both models proved sensitive to the impact of temporal changes in land use and management on water quality in both catchments, and were therefore used to evaluate the potential impact of proposed pollution control strategies on the nutrient loading delivered to the River Windrush and Slapton Ley

The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on a series of indicators of hydrological regimes across the global domain, using a global hydrological model run with climate scenarios constructed using pattern-scaling from 21 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Changes are compared with natural variability, with a significant change being defined as greater than the standard deviation of the hydrological indicator in the absence of climate change. Under an SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1b emissions scenario, substantial proportions of the land surface (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) would experience significant changes in hydrological behaviour by 2050; under one climate model scenario (Hadley Centre HadCM3), average annual runoff increases significantly over 47% of the land surface and decreases over 36%; only 17% therefore sees no significant change. There is considerable variability between regions, depending largely on projected changes in precipitation. Uncertainty in projected river flow regimes is dominated by variation in the spatial patterns of climate change between climate models (hydrological model uncertainty is not included). There is, however, a strong degree of consistency in the overall magnitude and direction of change. More than two-thirds of climate models project a significant increase in average annual runoff across almost a quarter of the land surface, and a significant decrease over 14%, with considerably higher degrees of consistency in some regions. Most climate models project increases in runoff in Canada and high-latitude eastern Europe and Siberia, and decreases in runoff in central Europe, around the Mediterranean, the Mashriq, central America and Brasil. There is some evidence that projecte change in runoff at the regional scale is not linear with change in global average temperature change. The effects of uncertainty in the rate of future emissions is relatively small

Scheduling satellite-based SAR acquisition for sequential assimilation of water level observations into flood modelling

Satellite-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has proved useful for obtaining information on flood extent, which, when intersected with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the floodplain, provides water level observations that can be assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to decrease forecast uncertainty. With an increasing number of operational satellites with SAR capability, information on the relationship between satellite first visit and revisit times and forecast performance is required to optimise the operational scheduling of satellite imagery. By using an Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) and a synthetic analysis with the 2D hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD-FP based on a real flooding case affecting an urban area (summer 2007,Tewkesbury, Southwest UK), we evaluate the sensitivity of the forecast performance to visit parameters. We emulate a generic hydrologic-hydrodynamic modelling cascade by imposing a bias and spatiotemporal correlations to the inflow error ensemble into the hydrodynamic domain. First, in agreement with previous research, estimation and correction for this bias leads to a clear improvement in keeping the forecast on track. Second, imagery obtained early in the flood is shown to have a large influence on forecast statistics. Revisit interval is most influential for early observations. The results are promising for the future of remote sensing-based water level observations for real-time flood forecasting in complex scenarios.

Haplotype analysis of vernalization loci in European barley germplasm reveals novel VRN-H1 alleles and a predominant winter VRN-H1/VRN-H2 multi-locus haplotype

In barley, variation in the requirement for vernalization (an extended period of low temperature before flowering can occur) is determined by the VRN-H1, -H2 and -H3 loci. In European cultivated germplasm, most variation in vernalization requirement is accounted for by alleles at VRN-H1 and VRN-H2 only, but the range of allelic variation is largely unexplored. Here we characterise VRN-H1 and VRN-H2 haplotypes in 429 varieties representing a large portion of the acreage sown to barley in Western Europe over the last 60 years. Analysis of genotype, intron I sequencing data and growth habit tests identified three novel VRN-H1 alleles and determined the most frequent VRN-H1 intron I rearrangements. Combined analysis of VRN-H1 and VRN-H2 alleles resulted in the classification of seventeen VRN-H1/VRN-H2 multi-locus haplotypes, three of which account for 79% of varieties. The molecular markers employed here represent powerful diagnostic tools for prediction of growth habit and assessment of varietal purity. These markers will also allow development of germplasm to test the behaviour of individual alleles with the aim of understanding the relationship between allelic variation and adaptation to specific agri-environments.

Distribution of β-amylase I haplotypes among European cultivated barleys

The barley β-amylase I (Bmy1) locus encodes a starch breakdown enzyme whose kinetic properties and thermostability are critical during malt production. Studies of allelic variation at the Bmy1 locus have shown that the encoded enzyme can be commonly found in at least three distinct thermostability classes and demonstrated the nucleotide sequence variations responsible for such phenotypic differences. In order to explore the extent of sequence diversity at the Bmy1 locus in cultivated European barley, 464 varieties representing a cross-section of popular varieties grown in western Europe over the past 60 years, were genotyped for three single nucleotide polymorphisms chosen to tag the four common alleles found in the collection. One of these haplotypes, which has not been explicitly recognised in the literature as a distinct allele, was found in 95% of winter varieties in the sample. When release dates of the varieties were considered, the lowest thermostability allele (Bmy1-Sd2L) appeared to decrease in abundance over time, while the highest thermostability allele (Bmy1-Sd2H) was the rarest allele at 5.4% of the sample and was virtually confined to two-row spring varieties. Pedigree analysis was used to track transmission of particular alleles over time and highlighted issues of genetic stratification of the sample.

Integration of retrotransposons-based markers in a linkage map of barley

A deeper understanding of random markers is important if they are to be employed for a range of objectives. The sequence specific amplified polymorphism (S-SAP) technique is a powerful genetic analysis tool which exploits the high copy number of retrotransposon long terminal repeats (LTRs) in the plant genome. The distribution and inheritance of S-SAP bands in the barley genome was studied using the Steptoe × Morex (S × M) double haploid (DH) population. Six S-SAP primer combinations generated 98 polymorphic bands, and map positions were assigned to all but one band. Eight putative co-dominant loci were detected, representing 16 of the mapped markers. Thus at least 81 of the mapped S-SAP loci were dominant. The markers were distributed along all of the seven chromosomes and a tendency to cluster was observed. The distribution of S-SAP markers over the barley genome concurred with the knowledge of the high copy number of retrotransposons in plants. This experiment has demonstrated the potential for the S-SAP technique to be applied in a range of analyses such as genetic fingerprinting, marker assisted breeding, biodiversity assessment and phylogenetic analyses.

The surface urban energy and water balance scheme (SUEWS): evaluation in Los Angeles and Vancouver

An urban energy and water balance model is presented which uses a small number of commonly measured meteorological variables and information about the surface cover. Rates of evaporation-interception for a single layer with multiple surface types (paved, buildings, coniferous trees and/or shrubs, deciduous trees and/or shrubs, irrigated grass, non-irrigated grass and water) are calculated. Below each surface type, except water, there is a single soil layer. At each time step the moisture state of each surface is calculated. Horizontal water movements at the surface and in the soil are incorporated. Particular attention is given to the surface conductance used to model evaporation and its parameters. The model is tested against direct flux measurements carried out over a number of years in Vancouver, Canada and Los Angeles, USA. At all measurement sites the model is able to simulate the net all-wave radiation and turbulent sensible and latent heat well (RMSE = 25–47 W m−2, 30–64 and 20–56 W m−2, respectively). The model reproduces the diurnal cycle of the turbulent fluxes but typically underestimates latent heat flux and overestimates sensible heat flux in the day time. The model tracks measured surface wetness and simulates the variations in soil moisture content. It is able to respond correctly to short-term events as well as annual changes. The largest uncertainty relates to the determination of surface conductance. The model has the potential be used for multiple applications; for example, to predict effects of regulation on urban water use, landscaping and planning scenarios, or to assess climate mitigation strategies.

An easily implemented agro-hydrological procedure with dynamic root simulation for water transfer in the crop-soil system: validation and application

Models for water transfer in the crop-soil system are key components of agro-hydrological models for irrigation, fertilizer and pesticide practices. Many of the hydrological models for water transfer in the crop-soil system are either too approximate due to oversimplified algorithms or employ complex numerical schemes. In this paper we developed a simple and sufficiently accurate algorithm which can be easily adopted in agro-hydrological models for the simulation of water dynamics. We used a dual crop coefficient approach proposed by the FAO for estimating potential evaporation and transpiration, and a dynamic model for calculating relative root length distribution on a daily basis. In a small time step of 0.001 d, we implemented algorithms separately for actual evaporation, root water uptake and soil water content redistribution by decoupling these processes. The Richards equation describing soil water movement was solved using an integration strategy over the soil layers instead of complex numerical schemes. This drastically simplified the procedures of modeling soil water and led to much shorter computer codes. The validity of the proposed model was tested against data from field experiments on two contrasting soils cropped with wheat. Good agreement was achieved between measurement and simulation of soil water content in various depths collected at intervals during crop growth. This indicates that the model is satisfactory in simulating water transfer in the crop-soil system, and therefore can reliably be adopted in agro-hydrological models. Finally we demonstrated how the developed model could be used to study the effect of changes in the environment such as lowering the groundwater table caused by the construction of a motorway on crop transpiration. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ensemble flood forecasting: a review.

Operational medium range flood forecasting systems are increasingly moving towards the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWP), known as ensemble prediction systems (EPS), to drive their predictions. We review the scientific drivers of this shift towards such ‘ensemble flood forecasting’ and discuss several of the questions surrounding best practice in using EPS in flood forecasting systems. We also review the literature evidence of the ‘added value’ of flood forecasts based on EPS and point to remaining key challenges in using EPS successfully.

Role for substance p-based nociceptive signaling in progenitor cell activation and angiogenesis during ischemia in mice and in human subjects

Our data highlight the role of SP in reparative neovascularization. Nociceptive signaling may represent a novel target of regenerative medicine.

Targeting stem cell niches and trafficking for cardiovascular therapy.

Regenerative cardiovascular medicine is the frontline of 21st-century health care. Cell therapy trials using bone marrow progenitor cells documented that the approach is feasible, safe and potentially beneficial in patients with ischemic disease. However, cardiovascular prevention and rehabilitation strategies should aim to conserve the pristine healing capacity of a healthy organism as well as reactivate it under disease conditions. This requires an increased understanding of stem cell microenvironment and trafficking mechanisms. Engagement and disengagement of stem cells of the osteoblastic niche is a dynamic process, finely tuned to allow low amounts of cells move out of the bone marrow and into the circulation on a regular basis. The balance is altered under stress situations, like tissue injury or ischemia, leading to remarkably increased cell egression. Individual populations of circulating progenitor cells could give rise to mature tissue cells (e.g. endothelial cells or cardiomyocytes), while the majority may differentiate to leukocytes, affecting the environment of homing sites in a paracrine way, e.g. promoting endothelial survival, proliferation and function, as well as attenuating or enhancing inflammation. This review focuses on the dynamics of the stem cell niche in healthy and disease conditions and on therapeutic means to direct stem cell/progenitor cell mobilization and recruitment into improved tissue repair.