Comparison of aerosol optical properties above clouds between POLDER and AeroCom models over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season

Aerosol properties above clouds have been retrieved over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season 2006 using satellite observations from POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances). From June to October, POLDER has observed a mean Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Thickness (ACAOT) of 0.28 and a mean Above-Clouds Single Scattering Albedo (ACSSA) of 0.87 at 550 nm. These results have been used to evaluate the simulation of aerosols above clouds in 5 AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) models (GOCART, HadGEM3, ECHAM5-HAM2, OsloCTM2 and SPRINTARS). Most models do not reproduce the observed large aerosol load episodes. The comparison highlights the importance of the injection height and the vertical transport parameterizations to simulate the large ACAOT observed by POLDER. Furthermore, POLDER ACSSA is best reproduced by models with a high imaginary part of black carbon refractive index, in accordance with recent recommendations.

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.

Impact of Tibetan Orography and Heating on the Summer Flow over Asia

The influence on the summer flow over Asia of both the orographic and thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau is investigated using a sequence of idealised experiments with a global primitive equation model. The zonally averaged flow is prescribed and both realistic and idealised orography and heating are used. There is some similarity between the responses to the two forcings when applied separately. The upper tropospheric Tibetan anticyclone is predominantly forced by the heating but also weakly by the orography. Below this, both forcings tend to give air descending in an equatorward anticyclonic circulation down the isentropes to the west and rising in a similar poleward circulation to the east. However the heating-only response has a strong ascending southwesterly flow that is guided around the south and south-east of the orography when it is included. On the northern side, the westerly flow over the orography gives ascent on the upslope and descent on the downslope. It is found that heating over the Plateau leads to a potential vorticity (PV) minimum and that if it is sufficiently strong the flow is unstable, producing a quasi-biweekly oscillation. During this oscillation the Tibetan anticyclone changes between a single centre over the southwestern side of the Plateau and a split/double structure with centres over China and the Middle East. These characteristics are similar to observed variability in the region. Associated with this quasi-biweekly oscillation are significant variations in the strength of the ascent over the Plateau and the Rossby wave pattern over the North Pacific. The origin of the variability is instability associated with the zonally extended potential vorticity PV minimum on a θ-surface, as proposed by Hsu and Plumb (2000). This minimum is due to the tendency to reduce the PV above the heating over the Plateau and to advection by the consequent anticyclone of high PV around from the east and low PV to the west. The deep convection to the south and southeast of the Plateau tends to suppress the quasi-biweekly oscillation because the low PV produced above it acts to reduce the meridional PV gradient reversal. The occurrence of the oscillation depends on the relative magnitude of the heating in the two regions.

Neolithic woodland composition and exploitation in the Southern Levant: a comparison between archaeobotanical remains from WF16 and present day woodland at Hammam Adethni

Excavations at the Pre-Pottery Neolithic site of WF16 in the Southern Levant produced an archaeobotanical assemblage constituted by plant macro-fossils and wood charcoal. As with all such assemblages, its species composition will most likely provide a biased reflection of those within the Neolithic woodland that had been exploited owing to cultural selection and differential preservation. As a means of facilitating its interpretation, a survey was undertaken of a relatively undisturbed patch of gallery woodland associated with a permanent water course at Hammam Adethni, approximately four kilometres south-east of WF16. The substantial overlap of the species within this woodland and those in the archaeobotanical assemblage suggests that this present-day woodland provides an analogue for that of the Neolithic and may therefore indicate what other plant resources the inhabitants of WF16 may have exploited, but which have left no archaeological trace. The interpretation of the results is supported by a comparative study of wood charcoal from present-day Bedouin hearths in Wadi Faynan.

Sustainable development, rolled-out neoliberalism and sustainable communities

Recent contributions by geographers on the relationships between states and citizens have documented the rise of rolled-out neoliberalism. Development agendas are, it is argued, increasingly dominated by the principles of market-driven reforms, social inequality, and a drive towards enhancing the economic competitiveness of the supply side of the economy. However, at the same time, a parallel set of discourses has emerged in the development literature which argues that it is principles of sustainable development that have, in practice, become dominant. The emphasis is, instead, on democratic empowerment, environmental conservation, and social justice. This paper examines the relationships between these ostensibly very different interpretations of contemporary development with an assessment of one of the Labour government's most ambitious planning agendas-the publication in February 2003 of the document Sustainable Communities: Building for the Future. The proposals are promoted as a "step change" in the planning system with a new emphasis on tackling shortages of housing in the South East and reviving the economy of the Thames Gateway area. The paper assesses the different ways in which such programmes can be interpreted and argues that contemporary development practices in countries such as Britain are constituted by a hybridity of approaches and rationalities and cannot be reduced to simple characterisations of rolled-out neoliberalism or sustainable development.

Nutrient monitoring, simulation and management within a major lowland UK river system: the Kennet

This paper describes an assessment of the nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics of the River Kennet in the south east of England. The Kennet catchment (1200 km(2)) is a predominantly groundwater fed river impacted by agricultural and sewage sources of nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) pollution. The results from a suite of simulation models are integrated to assess the key spatial and temporal variations in the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) chemistry, and the influence of changes in phosphorous inputs from a Sewage Treatment Works on the macrophyte and epiphyte growth patterns. The models used are the Export Co-efficient model, the Integrated Nitrogen in Catchments model, and a new model of in-stream phosphorus and macrophyte dynamics: the 'Kennet' model. The paper concludes with a discussion on the present state of knowledge regarding the water quality functioning, future research needs regarding environmental modelling and the use of models as management tools for large, nutrient impacted riverine systems. (C) 2003 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Functional benefits of predator species diversity depend on prey identity

1. Determining the functional significance of species diversity in natural enemy assemblages is a key step towards prediction of the likely impact of biodiversity loss on natural pest control processes. While the biological control literature contains examples in which increased natural enemy diversity hinders pest control, other studies have highlighted mechanisms where pest suppression is promoted by increased enemy diversity. 2. This study aimed to test whether increased predator species diversity results in higher rates of predation on two key, but contrasting, insect pest species commonly found in the rice ecosystems of south-east Asia. 3. Glasshouse experiments were undertaken in which four life stages of a planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens) and a moth (Marasmia patnalis) were caged with single or three-species combinations of generalist predators. 4. Generally, predation rates of the three-species assemblages exceeded expectation when attacking M. patnalis, but not when attacking N. lugens. In addition, a positive effect of increased predator species richness on overall predation rate was found with M. patnalis but not with N. lugens. 5. The results are consistent with theoretical predictions that morphological and behavioural differentiation among prey life stages promotes functional complementarity among predator species. This indicates that emergent species diversity effects in natural enemy assemblages are context dependent; they depend not only on the characteristics of the predators species, but on the identity of the species on which they prey.

Crops and cultures in the Pacific: new data and new techniques for the investigation of old questions

Fifty years ago Carl Sauer suggested, controversially and on the basis of theory rather than evidence, that Southeast Asia was the source area for agriculture throughout the Old World, including the Pacific. Since then, the archaeobotanical record (macroscopic and microscopic) from the Pacific islands has increased, leading to suggestions, also still controversial, that Melanesia was a center of origin of agriculture independent of South-east Asia, based on tree fruits and nuts and vegetatively propagated starchy staples. Such crops generally lack morphological markers of domestication, so exploitation, cultivation and domestication cannot easily be distinguished in the archaeological record. Molecular studies involving techniques such as chromosome painting, DNA fingerprinting and DNA sequencing, can potentially complement the archaeological record by suggesting where species which were spread through the Pacific by man originated and by what routes they attained their present distributions. A combination of archaeobotanical and molecular studies should therefore eventually enable the rival claims of Melanesia versus South-east Asia as independent centers of invention of agriculture to be assessed.

Adapting to the effects of climate change on water supply reliability

This paper presents preliminary results from an assessment of the barriers to adaptation to water supply shortage in a case study catchment in south east England with multiple supply companies. The investigation applies a conceptual framework, which distinguishes between generic barriers affecting the ability of supply companies to make adaptation decisions, and specific barriers to the implementation of each option. The preliminary analysis suggests that whilst there is a widespread awareness of the challenge of climate change, and a conceptual understanding of the need for adaptation, some of the generic barriers that will affect detailed evaluations and actual adaptation decisions have yet to be approached. The analysis also shows that different individual adaptation options are assessed differently by different stakeholders, and that there are differences in the barriers to adoption between supply-side and demand-side measures. First, however, the paper develops the general conceptual framework for the characterisation of the barriers to adaptation used in the study.