Medieval foreign exchange: a time series analysis

This chapter applies rigorous statistical analysis to existing datasets of medieval exchange rates quoted in merchants��� letters sent from Barcelona, Bruges and Venice between 1380 and 1310, which survive in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato. First, it tests the exchange rates for stationarity. Second, it uses regression analysis to examine the seasonality of exchange rates at the three financial centres and compares them against contemporary descriptions by the merchant Giovanni di Antonio da Uzzano. Third, it tests for structural breaks in the exchange rate series.

Short communication: plasma concentration of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide may regulate milk energy production in lactating dairy cows

In dairy cows, an increase in plasma concentration of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) is associated with an increase in metabolizable energy intake, but the role of GIP in energy partitioning of dairy cattle is not certain. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between plasma GIP concentrations and energy partitioning toward milk production. Four mid-lactation, primiparous, rumenfistulated Holstein-Friesian cows were fed a control diet of 55% forage and 45% concentrate [dry matter (DM) basis] in a 4 �� 4 Latin square design with 4-wk periods. The 4 treatments were (1) control diet fed at 1000 and 1600 h, and (2) once-daily (1000 h) feeding, (3) twice daily (1000 and 1600 h) feeding, and (4) 4 times/d (1000, 1600, 2200 and 0400 h) feeding of the control diet plus 1 dose (1.75 kg on a DM basis at 0955 h) into the rumen of supplemental vegetable proteins (Amino Green; SCA NuTec Ltd., Thirsk, UK). Measurements of respiratory exchange and energy balance were obtained over 4 d during the last week of each period while cows were housed in open-circuit respiration chambers. Blood was collected from the jugular vein every 30 min for 12 h, using indwelling catheters, starting at 0800 h on d 20 of each period. Plasma GIP concentration was measured in samples pooled over each 5 consecutive blood samplings. The relationships between plasma GIP, DM intake, heat production, respiratory quotient, milk yield, and milk energy output were analyzed using linear correlation procedures, with metabolizable intake as a partial variant. Plasma GIP concentration was not correlated with heat production, or milk yield, but was positively correlated with milk energy yield (correlation coefficient = 0.67) and negatively correlated with RQ (correlation coefficient = ���0.72). The correlations between GIP and RQ and milk energy output do not imply causality, but suggest that a role for GIP may exist in the regulation of energy metabolism in dairy cows.

A Double-threshold GARCH Model for the French Franc/Deutschmark exchange rate

This paper combines and generalizes a number of recent time series models of daily exchange rate series by using a SETAR model which also allows the variance equation of a GARCH specification for the error terms to be drawn from more than one regime. An application of the model to the French Franc/Deutschmark exchange rate demonstrates that out-of-sample forecasts for the exchange rate volatility are also improved when the restriction that the data it is drawn from a single regime is removed. This result highlights the importance of considering both types of regime shift (i.e. thresholds in variance as well as in mean) when analysing financial time series.

Quantitative ventilation assessments of idealized urban canopy layers with various urban layouts and the same building packing density

This paper investigates urban canopy layers (UCL) ventilation under neutral atmospheric condition with the same building area density (��p=0.25) and frontal area density (��f=0.25) but various urban sizes, building height variations, overall urban forms and wind directions. Turbulent airflows are first predicted by CFD simulations with standard k-�� model evaluated by wind tunnel data. Then air change rates per hour (ACH) and canopy purging flow rate (PFR) are numerically analyzed to quantify the rate of air exchange and the net ventilation capacity induced by mean flows and turbulence. With a parallel approaching wind (��=0o), the velocity ratio first decreases in the adjustment region, followed by the fully-developed region where the flow reaches a balance. Although the flow quantities macroscopically keep constant, however ACH decreases and overall UCL ventilation becomes worse if urban size rises from 390m to 5km. Theoretically if urban size is infinite, ACH may reach a minimum value depending on local roof ventilation, and it rises from 1.7 to 7.5 if the standard deviation of building height variations increases (0% to 83.3%). Overall UCL ventilation capacity (PFR) with a square overall urban form (Lx=Ly=390m) is better as ��=0o than oblique winds (��=15o, 30o, 45o), and it exceeds that of a staggered urban form under all wind directions (��=0o to 45o), but is less than that of a rectangular urban form (Lx=570m, Ly=270m) under most wind directions (��=30o to 90o). Further investigations are still required to quantify the net ventilation efficiency induced by mean flows and turbulence.

Agricultural commodity markets : reference point for the real value of a currency

Using monthly time-series data 1999-2013, the paper shows that markets for agricultural commodities provide a yardstick for real purchasing power, and thus a reference point for the real value of fiat currencies. The daily need for each adult to consume about 2800 food calories is universal; data from FAO food balance sheets confirm that the world basket of food consumed daily is non-volatile in comparison to the volatility of currency exchange rates, and so the replacement cost of food consumed provides a consistent indicator of economic value. Food commodities are storable for short periods, but ultimately perishable, and this exerts continual pressure for markets to clear in the short term; moreover, food calories can be obtained from a very large range of foodstuffs, and so most households are able to use arbitrage to select a near optimal weighting of quantities purchased. The paper proposes an original method to enable a standard of value to be established, definable in physical units on the basis of actual worldwide consumption of food goods, with an illustration of the method.

Aircraft-based observations of air���sea turbulent ���uxes around the British Isles

Observations of turbulent ���uxes of momentum, heat and moisture from low-level aircraft data are presented. Fluxes are calculated using the eddy covariance technique from ���ight legs typically ���40 m above the sea surface. Over 400 runs of 2 min (���12 km) from 26 ���ights are evaluated. Flight legs are mainly from around the British Isles although a small number are from around Iceland and Norway. Sea-surface temperature (SST) observations from two on-board sensors (the ARIES interferometer and a Heimann radiometer) and a satellite-based analysis (OSTIA) are used to determine an improved SST estimate. Most of the observations are from moderate to strong wind speed conditions, the latter being a regime short of validation data for the bulk ���ux algorithms that are necessary for numerical weather prediction and climate models. Observations from both statically stable and unstable atmospheric boundary-layer conditions are presented. There is a particular focus on several ���ights made as part of the DIAMET (Diabatic in���uence on mesoscale structures in extratropical storms) project. Observed neutral exchange coef���cients are in the same range as previous studies, although higher for the momentum coef���cient, and are broadly consistent with the COARE 3.0 bulk ���ux algorithm, as well as the surface exchange schemes used in the ECMWF and Met Of���ce models. Examining the results as a function of aircraft heading shows higher ���uxes and exchange coef���cients in the across-wind direction, compared to along-wind (although this comparison is limited by the relatively small number of along-wind legs). A multi-resolution spectral decomposition technique demonstrates a lengthening of spatial scales in along-wind variances in along-wind legs, implying the boundary-layer eddies are elongated in the along-wind direction. The along-wind runs may not be able to adequately capture the full range of turbulent exchange that is occurring because elongation places the largest eddies outside of the run length.

Considering the Feasibility of Semantic Model Design in the Built-Environment

Building Information Modeling (BIM) is the process of structuring, capturing, creating, and managing a digital representation of physical and/or functional characteristics of a built space [1]. Current BIM has limited ability to represent dynamic semantics, social information, often failing to consider building activity, behavior and context; thus limiting integration with intelligent, built-environment management systems. Research, such as the development of Semantic Exchange Modules, and/or the linking of IFC with semantic web structures, demonstrates the need for building models to better support complex semantic functionality. To implement model semantics effectively, however, it is critical that model designers consider semantic information constructs. This paper discusses semantic models with relation to determining the most suitable information structure. We demonstrate how semantic rigidity can lead to significant long-term problems that can contribute to model failure. A sufficiently detailed feasibility study is advised to maximize the value from the semantic model. In addition we propose a set of questions, to be used during a model���s feasibility study, and guidelines to help assess the most suitable method for managing semantics in a built environment.

Cambium non est mutuum: exchange and interest rates in medieval Europe

A major gap in our understanding of the medieval economy concerns interest rates, especially relating to commercial credit. Although direct evidence about interest rates is scattered and anecdotal, there is much more surviving information about exchange rates. Since both contemporaries and historians have suggested that exchange and rechange transactions could be used to disguise the charging of interest in order to circumvent the usury prohibition, it should be possible to back out the interest rates from exchange rates. The following analysis is based on a new dataset of medieval exchange rates collected from commercial correspondence in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato, c.1383-1411. It demonstrates that the time value of money was consistently incorporated into market exchange rates. Moreover, these implicit interest rates are broadly comparable to those received from other types of commercial loan and investment. Although on average profitable, the return on any individual exchange and rechange transaction did involve a degree of uncertainty that may have justified their non-usurious nature. However, there were also practical reasons why medieval merchants may have used foreign exchange transactions as a means of extending credit.

Sensitivity of resolved and parameterized surface drag to changes in resolution and parameterization

The relative contribution of resolved and parameterized surface drag towards balancing the atmospheric angular momentum flux convergence (AMFC), and their sensitivity to horizontal resolution and parameterization, are investigated in an atmospheric model. This sensitivity can be difficult to elucidate in free-running climate models, in which the AMFC varies with changing climatologies and, as a result, the relative contributions of surface terms balancing the AMFC also vary. While the sensitivity question has previously been addressed using short-range forecasts, we demonstrate that a nudging framework is an effective method for constraining the AMFC. The Met Office Unified Model is integrated at three horizontal resolutions ranging from 130 km (N96) to 25 km (N512) while relaxing the model���s wind and temperature fields towards the ERAinterim reanalysis within the altitude regions of maximum AMFC. This method is validated against short range forecasts and good agreement is found. These experiments are then used to assess the fidelity of the exchange between parameterized and resolved orographic torques with changes in horizontal resolution. Although the parameterized orographic torque reduces substantially with increasing horizontal resolution, there is little change in resolved orographic torque over 20N to 50N. The tendencies produced by the nudging routine indicate that the additional drag at lower horizontal resolution is excessive. When parameterized orographic blocking is removed at the coarsest of these resolutions, there is a lack of compensation, and even compensation of the opposite sense, by the boundary layer and resolved torques which is particularly pronounced over 20N to 50N. This study demonstrates that there is strong sensitivity in the behaviour of the resolved and parameterized surface drag over this region.

Iron Uptake and Homeostasis in Microorganisms

Preface. Iron is considered to be a minor element employed, in a variety of forms, by nearly all living organisms. In some cases, it is utilised in large quantities, for instance for the formation of magnetosomes within magnetotactic bacteria or during use of iron as a respiratory donor or acceptor by iron oxidising or reducing bacteria. However, in most cases the role of iron is restricted to its use as a cofactor or prosthetic group assisting the biological activity of many different types of protein. The key metabolic processes that are dependent on iron as a cofactor are numerous; they include respiration, light harvesting, nitrogen fixation, the Krebs cycle, redox stress resistance, amino acid synthesis and oxygen transport. Indeed, it is clear that Life in its current form would be impossible in the absence of iron. One of the main reasons for the reliance of Life upon this metal is the ability of iron to exist in multiple redox states, in particular the relatively stable ferrous (Fe2+) and ferric (Fe3+) forms. The availability of these stable oxidation states allows iron to engage in redox reactions over a wide range of midpoint potentials, depending on the coordination environment, making it an extremely adaptable mediator of electron exchange processes. Iron is also one of the most common elements within the Earth���s crust (5% abundance) and thus is considered to have been readily available when Life evolved on our early, anaerobic planet. However, as oxygen accumulated (the ���Great oxidation event���) within the atmosphere some 2.4 billion years ago, and as the oceans became less acidic, the iron within primordial oceans was converted from its soluble reduced form to its weakly-soluble oxidised ferric form, which precipitated (~1.8 billion years ago) to form the ���banded iron formations��� (BIFs) observed today in Precambrian sedimentary rocks around the world. These BIFs provide a geological record marking a transition point away from the ancient anaerobic world towards modern aerobic Earth. They also indicate a period over which the bio-availability of iron shifted from abundance to limitation, a condition that extends to the modern day. Thus, it is considered likely that the vast majority of extant organisms face the common problem of securing sufficient iron from their environment ��� a problem that Life on Earth has had to cope with for some 2 billion years. This struggle for iron is exemplified by the competition for this metal amongst co-habiting microorganisms who resort to stealing (pirating) each others iron supplies! The reliance of micro-organisms upon iron can be disadvantageous to them, and to our innate immune system it represents a chink in the microbial armour, offering an opportunity that can be exploited to ward off pathogenic invaders. In order to infect body tissues and cause disease, pathogens must secure all their iron from the host. To fight such infections, the host specifically withdraws available iron through the action of various iron depleting processes (e.g. the release of lactoferrin and lipocalin-2) ��� this represents an important strategy in our defence against disease. However, pathogens are frequently able to deploy iron acquisition systems that target host iron sources such as transferrin, lactoferrin and hemoproteins, and thus counteract the iron-withdrawal approaches of the host. Inactivation of such host-targeting iron-uptake systems often attenuates the pathogenicity of the invading microbe, illustrating the importance of ���the battle for iron��� in the infection process. The role of iron sequestration systems in facilitating microbial infections has been a major driving force in research aimed at unravelling the complexities of microbial iron transport processes. But also, the intricacy of such systems offers a challenge that stimulates the curiosity. One such challenge is to understand how balanced levels of free iron within the cytosol are achieved in a way that avoids toxicity whilst providing sufficient levels for metabolic purposes ��� this is a requirement that all organisms have to meet. Although the systems involved in achieving this balance can be highly variable amongst different microorganisms, the overall strategy is common. On a coarse level, the homeostatic control of cellular iron is maintained through strict control of the uptake, storage and utilisation of available iron, and is co-ordinated by integrated iron-regulatory networks. However, much yet remains to be discovered concerning the fine details of these different iron regulatory processes. As already indicated, perhaps the most difficult task in maintaining iron homeostasis is simply the procurement of sufficient iron from external sources. The importance of this problem is demonstrated by the plethora of distinct iron transporters often found within a single bacterium, each targeting different forms (complex or redox state) of iron or a different environmental condition. Thus, microbes devote considerable cellular resource to securing iron from their surroundings, reflecting how successful acquisition of iron can be crucial in the competition for survival. The aim of this book is provide the reader with an overview of iron transport processes within a range of microorganisms and to provide an indication of how microbial iron levels are controlled. This aim is promoted through the inclusion of expert reviews on several well studied examples that illustrate the current state of play concerning our comprehension of how iron is translocated into the bacterial (or fungal) cell and how iron homeostasis is controlled within microbes. The first two chapters (1-2) consider the general properties of microbial iron-chelating compounds (known as ���siderophores���), and the mechanisms used by bacteria to acquire haem and utilise it as an iron source. The following twelve chapters (3-14) focus on specific types of microorganism that are of key interest, covering both an array of pathogens for humans, animals and plants (e.g. species of Bordetella, Shigella, , Erwinia, Vibrio, Aeromonas, Francisella, Campylobacter and Staphylococci, and EHEC) as well as a number of prominent non-pathogens (e.g. the rhizobia, E. coli K-12, Bacteroides spp., cyanobacteria, Bacillus spp. and yeasts). The chapters relay the common themes in microbial iron uptake approaches (e.g. the use of siderophores, TonB-dependent transporters, and ABC transport systems), but also highlight many distinctions (such as use of different types iron regulator and the impact of the presence/absence of a cell wall) in the strategies employed. We hope that those both within and outside the field will find this book useful, stimulating and interesting. We intend that it will provide a source for reference that will assist relevant researchers and provide an entry point for those initiating their studies within this subject. Finally, it is important that we acknowledge and thank wholeheartedly the many contributors who have provided the 14 excellent chapters from which this book is composed. Without their considerable efforts, this book, and the understanding that it relays, would not have been possible. Simon C Andrews and Pierre Cornelis

'Fair trade gold': Antecedents, prospects and challenges

This paper critically examines the challenges with, and impacts of, adopting the models in place for fair trade agriculture in the artisanal gold mining sector. Over the past two years, an NGO-led 'fair trade gold' movement has surfaced, its crystallization fuelled by a burgeoning body of evidence that points to impoverished artisanal miners in developing countries receiving low payments for their gold, as well as working in hazardous and unsanitary conditions. Proponents of fair trade gold contest that increased interaction between artisanal miners and Western jewellers could facilitate the former receiving fairer prices for gold, accessing support services, and ultimately, improving their quality of life. In the case of sub-Saharan Africa, however, the gold being mined on an artisanal scale does not supply Western retailers as perhaps believed; it is rather an important source of foreign exchange, which host governments employ buyers to collect for their coffers. It is maintained here that if the underlying purpose of fair trade is to improve the livelihoods and well-being of subsistence producers in developing countries, then the models that have proved so successful in alleviating the hardships of agro-producers of 'tropical' commodities such as coffee, tea, bananas and cocoa, should be adapted to artisanal gold mining in sub-Saharan Africa. Campaigns promoting 'fair trade gold' in the region should view host governments, and not Western retailers, as the 'end consumer', and focus on improving governance at the grassroots, organizing informal operators into working cooperatives, and addressing complications with purchasing arrangements - all of which would go a long way toward improving the livelihoods of subsistence artisanal miners. A case study of Noyem, Ghana, the location of a sprawling illegal gold mining community, is presented, which magnifies these challenges further and provides perspective on how they can be overcome. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bacterial evolution by genomic island transfer occurs via DNA transformation in planta

Our understanding of the evolution of microbial pathogens has been advanced by the discovery of "islands" of DNA that differ from core genomes and contain determinants of virulence [1, 2]. The acquisition of genomic islands (GIs) by horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is thought to have played a major role in microbial evolution. There are, however, few practical demonstrations of the acquisition of genes that control virulence, and, significantly, all have been achieved outside the animal or plant host. Loss of a GI from the bean pathogen Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola (Pph) is driven by exposure to the stress imposed by the plant's resistance response [3]. Here, we show that the complete episomal island, which carries pathogenicity genes including the effector avrPphB, transfers between strains of Pph by transformation in planta and inserts at a specific att site in the genome of the recipient. Our results show that the evolution of bacterial pathogens by HGT may be achieved via transformation, the simplest mechanism of DNA exchange. This process is activated by exposure to plant defenses, when the pathogen is in greatest need of acquiring new genetic traits to alleviate the antimicrobial stress imposed by plant innate immunity [4].

Amino-acid cycling drives nitrogen fixation in the legume - Rhizobium symbiosis

The biological reduction of atmospheric N-2 to ammonium (nitrogen fixation) provides about 65% of the biosphere's available nitrogen. Most of this ammonium is contributed by legume rhizobia symbioses(1), which are initiated by the infection of legume hosts by bacteria (rhizobia), resulting in formation of root nodules. Within the nodules, rhizobia are found as bacteroids, which perform the nitrogen fixation: to do this, they obtain sources of carbon and energy from the plant, in the form of dicarboxylic acids(2,3). It has been thought that, in return, bacteroids simply provide the plant with ammonium. But here we show that a more complex amino-acid cycle is essential for symbiotic nitrogen fixation by Rhizobium in pea nodules. The plant provides amino acids to the bacteroids, enabling them to shut down their ammonium assimilation. In return, bacteroids act like plant organelles to cycle amino acids back to the plant for asparagine synthesis. The mutual dependence of this exchange prevents the symbiosis being dominated by the plant, and provides a selective pressure for the evolution of mutualism.

Polymer ��� surfactant vesicular complexes in aqueous medium

The introduction of ionic single-tailed surfactants to aqueous solutions of EO18BO10 [EO = poly(ethylene oxide), BO = poly(1,2-butylene oxide), subscripts denote the number of repeating units] leads to the formation of vesicles, as probed by laser scanning confocal microscopy. Dynamic light scattering showed that the dimensions of these aggregates at early stages of development do not depend on the sign of the surfactant head group charge. Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) analysis indicated the coexistence of smaller micelles of different sizes and varying polymer content in solution. In strong contrast to the dramatic increase of size of dispersed particles induced by surfactants in dilute solution, the d-spacing of corresponding mesophases reduces monotonically upon increasing surfactant loading. This effect points to the suppression of vesicles as a consequence of increasing ionic strength in concentrated solutions. Maximum enhancements of storage modulus and thermal stability of hybrid gels take place at different compositions, indicating a delicate balance between the number and size of polymer-poor aggregates (population increases with surfactant loading) and the number and size of polymer���surfactant complexes (number and size decrease in high surfactant concentrations).

British public policy and multinationals during the ���Dollar Gap��� era, 1945���1960

This article examines the role of British exchange and import controls in stimulating the dramatic increase in overseas (particularly American) multinationals in Britain from the end of the Second World War to the late 1950s, together with the ways in which the government used controls to regulate the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow. Exchange controls were both an important stimulus to inward investment and a powerful and flexible means of regulating its volume and character. Government was relatively successful in using these powers to maximize the dollar balance and industrial benefits of FDI to Britain, given initially severe dollar and capacity constraints, and in liberalizing policy once these constraints receded and competition from other FDI hosts intensified.