Projected changes in tropical cyclones over Vietnam and the South China Sea using a 25 km regional climate model perturbed physics ensemble

The regional climate modelling system PRECIS, was run at 25 km horizontal resolution for 150 years (1949-2099) using global driving data from a five member perturbed physics ensemble (based on the coupled global climate model HadCM3). Output from these simulations was used to investigate projected changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) over Vietnam and the South China Sea due to global warming (under SRES scenario A1B). Thirty year climatological mean periods were used to look at projected changes in future (2069-2098) TCs compared to a 1961-1990 baseline. Present day results were compared qualitatively with IBTrACS observations and found to be reasonably realistic. Future projections show a 20-44 % decrease in TC frequency, although the spatial patterns of change differ between the ensemble members, and an increase of 27-53 % in the amount of TC associated precipitation. No statistically significant changes in TC intensity were found, however, the occurrence of more intense TCs (defined as those with a maximum 10 m wind speed > 35 m/s) was found to increase by 3-9 %. Projected increases in TC associated precipitation are likely caused by increased evaporation and availability of atmospheric water vapour, due to increased sea surface and atmospheric temperature. The mechanisms behind the projected changes in TC frequency are difficult to link explicitly; changes are most likely due to the combination of increased static stability, increased vertical wind shear and decreased upward motion, which suggest a decrease in the tropical overturning circulation.

Associations between interpretation bias and depression in adolescents

Interpretation biases have been shown to play a role in adult depression and are a target in cognitive behavioural therapy. Adolescence is a key risk period for the development of depression and a period of rapid cognitive and emotional development but little research has investigated the relationship between interpretation biases and depression in adolescents. This study adapted a measure of interpretation bias, the Ambiguous Scenarios Test for Depression, for adolescents and evaluated its reliability and validity. A community sample of 206 young people aged 12 to 18 years completed a validated measure of depression symptoms (Mood and Feelings Questionnaires) and the adapted Ambiguous Scenarios Test. The Ambiguous Scenarios Test for Depression in Adolescents had good internal consistency and split half reliability. Depression symptoms were associated with participants’ ratings of the valence of ambiguous situations and with interpretation biases. Importantly, symptoms of depression and anxiety were independently associated with interpretation bias. This research suggests that interpretation biases can be measured in this age group, that negative interpretation biases exist in adolescents and that these are associated with depression symptoms.

Science learning and graphic symbols: an exploration of early years teachers’ views and use of graphic symbols when teaching science

The study investigated early years teachers’ understanding and use of graphic symbols, defined as the visual representation(s) used to communicate one or more “linguistic” concepts, which can be used to facilitate science learning. The study was conducted in Cyprus where six early years teachers were observed and interviewed. The results indicate that the teachers had a good understanding of the role of symbols, but demonstrated a lack of understanding in regards to graphic symbols specifically. None of the teachers employed them in their observed science lesson, although some of them claimed that they did so. Findings suggest a gap in participants’ acquaintance with the terminology regarding different types of symbols and a lack of awareness about the use and availability of graphic symbols for the support of learning. There is a need to inform and train early years teachers about graphic symbols and their potential applications in supporting children’s learning.