Open solar flux estimates from near-Earth measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field: comparison of the first two perihelion passes of the Ulysses spacecraft

Results from all phases of the orbits of the Ulysses spacecraft have shown that the magnitude of the radial component of the heliospheric field is approximately independent of heliographic latitude. This result allows the use of near- Earth observations to compute the total open flux of the Sun. For example, using satellite observations of the interplanetary magnetic field, the average open solar flux was shown to have risen by 29% between 1963 and 1987 and using the aa geomagnetic index it was found to have doubled during the 20th century. It is therefore important to assess fully the accuracy of the result and to check that it applies to all phases of the solar cycle. The first perihelion pass of the Ulysses spacecraft was close to sunspot minimum, and recent data from the second perihelion pass show that the result also holds at solar maximum. The high level of correlation between the open flux derived from the various methods strongly supports the Ulysses discovery that the radial field component is independent of latitude. We show here that the errors introduced into open solar flux estimates by assuming that the heliospheric field’s radial component is independent of latitude are similar for the two passes and are of order 25% for daily values, falling to 5% for averaging timescales of 27 days or greater. We compare here the results of four methods for estimating the open solar flux with results from the first and second perehelion passes by Ulysses. We find that the errors are lowest (1–5% for averages over the entire perehelion passes lasting near 320 days), for near-Earth methods, based on either interplanetary magnetic field observations or the aa geomagnetic activity index. The corresponding errors for the Solanki et al. (2000) model are of the order of 9–15% and for the PFSS method, based on solar magnetograms, are of the order of 13–47%. The model of Solanki et al. is based on the continuity equation of open flux, and uses the sunspot number to quantify the rate of open flux emergence. It predicts that the average open solar flux has been decreasing since 1987, as Correspondence to: M. Lockwood (m.lockwood@rl.ac.uk) is observed in the variation of all the estimates of the open flux. This decline combines with the solar cycle variation to produce an open flux during the second (sunspot maximum) perihelion pass of Ulysses which is only slightly larger than that during the first (sunspot minimum) perihelion pass.

The evolution of the sun’s open magnetic flux: II. full solar cycle simulations

In this paper the origin and evolution of the Sun’s open magnetic flux is considered by conducting magnetic flux transport simulations over many solar cycles. The simulations include the effects of differential rotation, meridional flow and supergranular diffusion on the radial magnetic field at the surface of the Sun as new magnetic bipoles emerge and are transported poleward. In each cycle the emergence of roughly 2100 bipoles is considered. The net open flux produced by the surface distribution is calculated by constructing potential coronal fields with a source surface from the surface distribution at regular intervals. In the simulations the net open magnetic flux closely follows the total dipole component at the source surface and evolves independently from the surface flux. The behaviour of the open flux is highly dependent on meridional flow and many observed features are reproduced by the model. However, when meridional flow is present at observed values the maximum value of the open flux occurs at cycle minimum when the polar caps it helps produce are the strongest. This is inconsistent with observations by Lockwood, Stamper and Wild (1999) and Wang, Sheeley, and Lean (2000) who find the open flux peaking 1–2 years after cycle maximum. Only in unrealistic simulations where meridional flow is much smaller than diffusion does a maximum in open flux consistent with observations occur. It is therefore deduced that there is no realistic parameter range of the flux transport variables that can produce the correct magnitude variation in open flux under the present approximations. As a result the present standard model does not contain the correct physics to describe the evolution of the Sun’s open magnetic flux over an entire solar cycle. Future possible improvements in modeling are suggested.

The evolution of the Sun's open magnetic flux: I. a single bipole

In this paper the origin and evolution of the Sun’s open magnetic flux are considered for single magnetic bipoles as they are transported across the Sun. The effects of magnetic flux transport on the radial field at the surface of the Sun are modeled numerically by developing earlier work by Wang, Sheeley, and Lean (2000). The paper considers how the initial tilt of the bipole axis (α) and its latitude of emergence affect the variation and magnitude of the surface and open magnetic flux. The amount of open magnetic flux is estimated by constructing potential coronal fields. It is found that the open flux may evolve independently from the surface field for certain ranges of the tilt angle. For a given tilt angle, the lower the latitude of emergence, the higher the magnitude of the surface and open flux at the end of the simulation. In addition, three types of behavior are found for the open flux depending on the initial tilt angle of the bipole axis. When the tilt is such that α ≥ 2◦ the open flux is independent of the surface flux and initially increases before decaying away. In contrast, for tilt angles in the range −16◦ < α < 2◦ the open flux follows the surface flux and continually decays. Finally, for α ≤ −16◦ the open flux first decays and then increases in magnitude towards a second maximum before decaying away. This behavior of the open flux can be explained in terms of two competing effects produced by differential rotation. Firstly, differential rotation may increase or decrease the open flux by rotating the centers of each polarity of the bipole at different rates when the axis has tilt. Secondly, it decreases the open flux by increasing the length of the polarity inversion line where flux cancellation occurs. The results suggest that, in order to reproduce a realistic model of the Sun’s open magnetic flux over a solar cycle, it is important to have accurate input data on the latitude of emergence of bipoles along with the variation of their tilt angles as the cycle progresses.

Predicted signatures of pulsed reconnection in ESR data

Early in 1996, the latest of the European incoherent-scatter (EISCAT) radars came into operation on the Svalbard islands. The EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) has been built in order to study the ionosphere in the northern polar cap and in particular, the dayside cusp. Conditions in the upper atmosphere in the cusp region are complex, with magnetosheath plasma cascading freely into the atmosphere along open magnetic field lines as a result of magnetic reconnection at the dayside magnetopause. A model has been developed to predict the effects of pulsed reconnection and the subsequent cusp precipitation in the ionosphere. Using this model we have successfully recreated some of the major features seen in photometer and satellite data within the cusp. In this paper, the work is extended to predict the signatures of pulsed reconnection in ESR data when the radar is pointed along the magnetic field. It is expected that enhancements in both electron concentration and electron temperature will be observed. Whether these enhancements are continuous in time or occur as a series of separate events is shown to depend critically on where the open/closed field-line boundary is with respect to the radar. This is shown to be particularly true when reconnection pulses are superposed on a steady background rate.

Ionospheric Signatures of Pulsed Magnetopause Reconnection

The concept of zero-flow equilibria of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system leads to a large number of predictions concerning the ionospheric signatures of pulsed magnetopause reconnection. These include: poleward-moving F-region electron temperature enhancements and associated transient 630nm emission; associated poleward plasma flow which, compared to the pulsed variation of the reconnection rate, is highly smoothed by induction effects; oscillatory latitudinal motion of the open/closed field line boundary; phase lag of plasma flow enhancements after equatorward motions of the boundary; azimuthal plasma flow bursts, coincident in time and space with the 630nm-dominant auroral transients, only when the magnitude of the By component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is large; azimuthal-then-poleward motion of 630nm-dominant transients at a velocity which at all times equals the internal plasma flow velocity; 557.7nm-dominant transients on one edge of the 630nm-dominant transient (initially, and for large |By|, on the poleward or equatorward edge depending on the polarity of IMF By); tailward expansion of the flow response at several km s-1; and discrete steps in the cusp ion dispersion signature between the polewardmoving structures. This paper discusses these predictions and how all have recently been confirmed by combinations of observations by optical instruments on the Svalbard Islands, the EISCAT radars and the DMSP and DE satellites.

Ionospheric signatures of pulsed reconnection at the Earth's magnetopause

THE plasma precipitating into the Earth's dayside auroral atmosphere has characteristics which show that it originates from the shocked solar-wind plasma of the magnetosheath1'2. The particles of the magnetosheath plasma precipitate down a funnel-shaped region (cusp) of open field lines resulting from reconnection of the geomagnetic field with the interplanetary magnetic field3. Although the cusp has long been considered a well defined spatial structure maintained by continuous reconnection, it has recently been suggested4–6 that reconnection instead may take place in a series of discontinuous events; this is the ‘pulsating cusp model’. Here we present coordinated radar and satellite observations of a series of discrete, poleward-moving plasma structures that are consistent with the pulsating-cusp model.

Dependence of convective flows and particle precipitation in the high-latitude dayside ionosphere on theXandYcomponents of the interplanetary magnetic field

The asymmetries in the convective flows, current systems, and particle precipitation in the high-latitude dayside ionosphere which are related to the equatorial plane components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) are discussed in relation to the results of several recent observational studies. It is argued that all of the effects reported to date which are ascribed to the y component of the IMF can be understood, at least qualitatively, in terms of a simple theoretical picture in which the effects result from the stresses exerted on the magnetosphere consequent on the interconnection of terrestrial and interplanetary fields. In particular, relaxation under the action of these stresses allows, in effect, a partial penetration of the IMF into the magnetospheric cavity, such that the sense of the expected asymmetry effects on closed field lines can be understood, to zeroth order, in terms of the “dipole plus uniform field” model. In particular, in response to IMF By, the dayside cusp should be displaced in longitude about noon in the same sense as By in the northern hemisphere, and in the opposite sense to By in the southern hemisphere, while simultaneously the auroral oval as a whole should be shifted in the dawn-dusk direction in the opposite sense with respect to By. These expected displacements are found to be consistent with recently published observations. Similar considerations lead to the suggestion that the auroral oval may also undergo displacements in the noon-midnight direction which are associated with the x component of the IMF. We show that a previously published study of the position of the auroral oval contains strong initial evidence for the existence of this effect. However, recent results on variations in the latitude of the cusp are more ambiguous. This topic therefore requires further study before definitive conclusions can be drawn.

Large plasma velocities along the magnetic field line in the auroral zone

In the auroral zone, ionospheric plasma often moves horizontally at more than 1 km s−1, driven by magnetospheric electric fields, but it has usually been assumed that vertical velocities are much smaller. On occasions, however, plasma has been seen to move upwards along the magnetic field line at several hundred m s−1. These upward velocities are associated with electric fields strong enough to heat the ion population and drive it into a non-thermal state1,2. Here we report observations of substantial upwards acceleration of plasma, to velocities as high as 500 m s−1. An initial upthrust was provided by a combined upwelling of the neutral atmosphere and ionosphere but the continued acceleration at greater heights is explained by a combination of enhanced plasma pressure and the 'hydrodynamic mirror force'3. This acceleration marks an important stage in the transport of plasma from the ionosphere into the magnetosphere.

Direct observations of the full Dungey convection cycle in the polar ionosphere for southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions

Tracking the formation and full evolution of polar cap ionization patches in the polar ionosphere, we directly observe the full Dungey convection cycle for southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions. This enables us to study how the Dungey cycle influences the patches’ evolution. The patches were initially segmented from the dayside storm enhanced density plume at the equatorward edge of the cusp, by the expansion and contraction of the polar cap boundary due to pulsed dayside magnetopause reconnection, as indicated by in situ Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms(THEMIS) observations. Convection led to the patches entering the polar cap and being transported antisunward, while being continuously monitored by the globally distributed arrays of GPS receivers and Super Dual Auroral Radar Network radars. Changes in convection over time resulted in the patches following a range of trajectories, each of which differed somewhat from the classical twin-cell convection streamlines. Pulsed nightside reconnection, occurring as part of the magnetospheric substorm cycle, modulated the exit of the patches from the polar cap, as confirmed by coordinated observations of the magnetometer at Tromsø and European Incoherent Scatter Tromsø UHF radar. After exiting the polar cap, the patches broke up into a number of plasma blobs and returned sunward in the auroral return flow of the dawn and/or dusk convection cell. The full circulation time was about 3 h.