Simulation of the diurnal cycle in a climate model and its evaluation using data from Meteosat 7

The representation of the diurnal cycle in the Hadley Centre climate model is evaluated using simulations of the infrared radiances observed by Meteosat 7. In both the window and water vapour channels, the standard version of the model with 19 levels produces a good simulation of the geographical distributions of the mean radiances and of the amplitude of the diurnal cycle. Increasing the vertical resolution to 30 levels leads to further improvements in the mean fields. The timing of the maximum and minimum radiances reveals significant model errors, however, which are sensitive to the frequency with which the radiation scheme is called. In most regions, these errors are consistent with well documented errors in the timing of convective precipitation, which peaks before noon in the model, in contrast to the observed peak in the late afternoon or evening. When the radiation scheme is called every model time step (half an hour), as opposed to every three hours in the standard version, the timing of the minimum radiance is improved for convective regions over central Africa, due to the creation of upper-level layer-cloud by detrainment from the convection scheme, which persists well after the convection itself has dissipated. However, this produces a decoupling between the timing of the diurnal cycles of precipitation and window channel radiance. The possibility is raised that a similar decoupling may occur in reality and the implications of this for the retrieval of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from infrared radiances are discussed.

Bjerknes compensation and the decadal variability of the energy transports in a coupled climate model

In the 1960s, Jacob Bjerknes suggested that if the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes and the oceanic heat storage did not vary too much, then the total energy transport by the climate system would not vary too much either. This implies that any large anomalies of oceanic and atmospheric energy transport should be equal and opposite. This simple scenario has become known as Bjerknes compensation. A long control run of the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3) has been investigated. It was found that northern extratropical decadal anomalies of atmospheric and oceanic energy transports are significantly anticorrelated and have similar magnitudes, which is consistent with the predictions of Bjerknes compensation. ne degree of compensation in the northern extratropics was found to increase with increasing, time scale. Bjerknes compensation did not occur in the Tropics, primarily as large changes in the surface fluxes were associated with large changes in the TOA fluxes. In the ocean, the decadal variability of the energy transport is associated with fluctuations in the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. A stronger Atlantic Ocean energy transport leads to strong warming of surface temperatures in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas. which results in a reduced equator-to-pole surface temperature gradient and reduced atmospheric baroclinicity. It is argued that a stronger Atlantic Ocean energy transport leads to a weakened atmospheric transient energy transport.

Reconciling the electron counterstreaming and dropout occurrence rates with the heliospheric flux budget

Counterstreaming electrons (CSEs) are treated as signatures of closed magnetic flux, i.e., loops connected to the Sun at both ends. However, CSEs at 1 AU likely fade as the apex of a closed loop passes beyond some distance R, owing to scattering of the sunward beam along its continually increasing path length. The remaining antisunward beam at 1 AU would then give a false signature of open flux. Subsequent opening of a loop at the Sun by interchange reconnection with an open field line would produce an electron dropout (ED) at 1 AU, as if two open field lines were reconnecting to completely disconnect from the Sun. Thus EDs can be signatures of interchange reconnection as well as the commonly attributed disconnection. We incorporate CSE fadeout into a model that matches time-varying closed flux from interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) to the solar cycle variation in heliospheric flux. Using the observed occurrence rate of CSEs at solar maximum, the model estimates R ∼ 8–10 AU. Hence we demonstrate that EDs should be much rarer than CSEs at 1 AU, as EDs can only be detected when the juncture points of reconnected field lines lie sunward of the detector, whereas CSEs continue to be detected in the legs of all loops that have expanded beyond the detector, out to R. We also demonstrate that if closed flux added to the heliosphere by ICMEs is instead balanced by disconnection elsewhere, then ED occurrence at 1 AU would still be rare, contrary to earlier expectations.

Effects of fluctuating daily surface fluxes on the time-mean oceanic circulation

The effect of fluctuating daily surface fluxes on the time-mean oceanic circulation is studied using an empirical flux model. The model produces fluctuating fluxes resulting from atmospheric variability and includes oceanic feedbacks on the fluxes. Numerical experiments were carried out by driving an ocean general circulation model with three different versions of the empirical model. It is found that fluctuating daily fluxes lead to an increase in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the Atlantic of about 1 Sv and a decrease in the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) of about 32 Sv. The changes are approximately 7% of the MOC and 16% of the ACC obtained without fluctuating daily fluxes. The fluctuating fluxes change the intensity and the depth of vertical mixing. This, in turn, changes the density field and thus the circulation. Fluctuating buoyancy fluxes change the vertical mixing in a non-linear way: they tend to increase the convective mixing in mostly stable regions and to decrease the convective mixing in mostly unstable regions. The ACC changes are related to the enhanced mixing in the subtropical and the mid-latitude Southern Ocean and reduced mixing in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. The enhanced mixing is related to an increase in the frequency and the depth of convective events. As these events bring more dense water downward, the mixing changes lead to a reduction in meridional gradient of the depth-integrated density in the Southern Ocean and hence the strength of the ACC. The MOC changes are related to more subtle density changes. It is found that the vertical mixing in a latitudinal strip in the northern North Atlantic is more strongly enhanced due to fluctuating fluxes than the mixing in a latitudinal strip in the South Atlantic. This leads to an increase in the density difference between the two strips, which can be responsible for the increase in the Atlantic MOC.

Flux comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian estimates of Agulhas leakage: A case study using a numerical model

Estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the volume flux of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is difficult because of the presence of other circulation systems in the Agulhas region. Indian Ocean water in the Atlantic Ocean is vigorously mixed and diluted in the Cape Basin. Eulerian integration methods, where the velocity field perpendicular to a section is integrated to yield a flux, have to be calibrated so that only the flux by Agulhas leakage is sampled. Two Eulerian methods for estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage are tested within a high-resolution two-way nested model with the goal to devise a mooring-based measurement strategy. At the GoodHope line, a section halfway through the Cape Basin, the integrated velocity perpendicular to that line is compared to the magnitude of Agulhas leakage as determined from the transport carried by numerical Lagrangian floats. In the first method, integration is limited to the flux of water warmer and more saline than specific threshold values. These threshold values are determined by maximizing the correlation with the float-determined time series. By using the threshold values, approximately half of the leakage can directly be measured. The total amount of Agulhas leakage can be estimated using a linear regression, within a 90% confidence band of 12 Sv. In the second method, a subregion of the GoodHope line is sought so that integration over that subregion yields an Eulerian flux as close to the float-determined leakage as possible. It appears that when integration is limited within the model to the upper 300 m of the water column within 900 km of the African coast the time series have the smallest root-mean-square difference. This method yields a root-mean-square error of only 5.2 Sv but the 90% confidence band of the estimate is 20 Sv. It is concluded that the optimum thermohaline threshold method leads to more accurate estimates even though the directly measured transport is a factor of two lower than the actual magnitude of Agulhas leakage in this model.

An integrated mathematical model to evaluate nutrient partition in dairy cattle between the animal and its environment

In the past decade, a number of mechanistic, dynamic simulation models of several components of the dairy production system have become available. However their use has been limited due to the detailed technical knowledge and special software required to run them, and the lack of compatibility between models in predicting various metabolic processes in the animal. The first objective of the current study was to integrate the dynamic models of [Brit. J. Nutr. 72 (1994) 679] on rumen function, [J. Anim. Sci. 79 (2001) 1584] on methane production, [J. Anim. Sci. 80 (2002) 2481 on N partition, and a new model of P partition. The second objective was to construct a decision support system to analyse nutrient partition between animal and environment. The integrated model combines key environmental pollutants such as N, P and methane within a nutrient-based feed evaluation system. The model was run under different scenarios and the sensitivity of various parameters analysed. A comparison of predictions from the integrated model with the original simulation models showed an improvement in N excretion since the integrated model uses the dynamic model of [Brit. J. Nutr. 72 (1994) 6791 to predict microbial N, which was not represented in detail in the original model. The integrated model can be used to investigate the degree to which production and environmental objectives are antagonistic, and it may help to explain and understand the complex mechanisms involved at the ruminal and metabolic levels. A part of the integrated model outputs were the forms of N and P in excreta and methane, which can be used as indices of environmental pollution. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Time-varying coefficients in the almost ideal demand system: An empirical appraisal

This paper provides a generalisation of the structural time series version of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) that allows for time-varying coefficients (TVC/AIDS) in the presence of cross-equation constraints. An empirical appraisal of the TVC/AIDS is made using a dynamic AIDS with trending intercept as the baseline model with a data set from the Italian Household Budget Survey (1986-2001). The assessment is based on four criteria: adherence to theoretical constraints, statistical diagnostics on residuals, forecasting performance and economic meaningfulness. No clear evidence is found for superior performance of the TVC/AIDS, apart from improved short-term forecasts.

Growth rate and physical properties of Erythrina variegata with regard to dry matter production

Erythrina variegata grown from seeds showed a great deal of variation with respect to height, diameter, density of wood and dry matter production. Statistical analysis showed that the density of wood produced by any plant was not related to its growth rate, but dry matter production was associated with plant growth rate (height and diameter) that could lead to overall increased dry matter or biomass production.

Measurement of propagation constant in waveguides with wideband coherent terahertz spectroscopy

A quasi-optical technique for characterizing micromachined waveguides is demonstrated with wideband time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy. A transfer-function representation is adopted for the description of the relation between the signals in the input and output port of the waveguides. The time-domain responses were discretized, and the waveguide transfer function was obtained through a parametric approach in the z domain after describing the system with an autoregressive with exogenous input model. The a priori assumption of the number of modes propagating in the structure was inferred from comparisons of the theoretical with the measured characteristic impedance as well as with parsimony arguments. Measurements for a precision WR-8 waveguide-adjustable short as well as for G-band reduced-height micromachined waveguides are presented. (C) 2003 Optical Society of America.

On improving the performance in robust controllers for robot manipulators with parametric disturbances

This paper presents a new strategy for controlling rigid-robot manipulators in the presence of parametric uncertainties or un-modelled dynamics. The strategy combines an adaptation law with a well known robust controller proposed by Spong, which is derived using Lyapunov's direct method. Although the tracking problem of manipulators has been successfully solved with different strategies, there are some conditions under which their efficiency is limited. Specifically, their performance decreases when unknown loading masses or model disturbances are introduced. The aim of this work is to show that the proposed strategy performs better than existing algorithms, as verified with real-time experimental results with a Puma-560 robot. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Controls of carbon dioxide concentrations and fluxes above central London

Eddy-covariance measurements of carbon dioxide fluxes were taken semi-continuously between October 2006 and May 2008 at 190 m height in central London (UK) to quantify emissions and study their controls. Inner London, with a population of 8.2 million (~5000 inhabitants per km2) is heavily built up with 8% vegetation cover within the central boroughs. CO2 emissions were found to be mainly controlled by fossil fuel combustion (e.g. traffic, commercial and domestic heating). The measurement period allowed investigation of both diurnal patterns and seasonal trends. Diurnal averages of CO2 fluxes were found to be highly correlated to traffic. However changes in heating-related natural gas consumption and, to a lesser extent, photosynthetic activity that controlled the seasonal variability. Despite measurements being taken at ca. 22 times the mean building height, coupling with street level was adequate, especially during daytime. Night-time saw a higher occurrence of stable or neutral stratification, especially in autumn and winter, which resulted in data loss in post-processing. No significant difference was found between the annual estimate of net exchange of CO2 for the expected measurement footprint and the values derived from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI), with daytime fluxes differing by only 3%. This agreement with NAEI data also supported the use of the simple flux footprint model which was applied to the London site; this also suggests that individual roughness elements did not significantly affect the measurements due to the large ratio of measurement height to mean building height.

The effects of the RAW filter on the climatology and forecast skill of the SPEEDY model

In a recent study, Williams introduced a simple modification to the widely used Robert–Asselin (RA) filter for numerical integration. The main purpose of the Robert–Asselin–Williams (RAW) filter is to avoid the undesired numerical damping of the RA filter and to increase the accuracy. In the present paper, the effects of the modification are comprehensively evaluated in the Simplified Parameterizations, Primitive Equation Dynamics (SPEEDY) atmospheric general circulation model. First, the authors search for significant changes in the monthly climatology due to the introduction of the new filter. After testing both at the local level and at the field level, no significant changes are found, which is advantageous in the sense that the new scheme does not require a retuning of the parameterized model physics. Second, the authors examine whether the new filter improves the skill of short- and medium-term forecasts. January 1982 data from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis are used to evaluate the forecast skill. Improvements are found in all the model variables (except the relative humidity, which is hardly changed). The improvements increase with lead time and are especially evident in medium-range forecasts (96–144 h). For example, in tropical surface pressure predictions, 5-day forecasts made using the RAW filter have approximately the same skill as 4-day forecasts made using the RA filter. The results of this work are encouraging for the implementation of the RAW filter in other models currently using the RA filter.

Discrete time representation of continuous time ARMA processes

This paper derives exact discrete time representations for data generated by a continuous time autoregressive moving average (ARMA) system with mixed stock and flow data. The representations for systems comprised entirely of stocks or of flows are also given. In each case the discrete time representations are shown to be of ARMA form, the orders depending on those of the continuous time system. Three examples and applications are also provided, two of which concern the stationary ARMA(2, 1) model with stock variables (with applications to sunspot data and a short-term interest rate) and one concerning the nonstationary ARMA(2, 1) model with a flow variable (with an application to U.S. nondurable consumers’ expenditure). In all three examples the presence of an MA(1) component in the continuous time system has a dramatic impact on eradicating unaccounted-for serial correlation that is present in the discrete time version of the ARMA(2, 0) specification, even though the form of the discrete time model is ARMA(2, 1) for both models.

The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a coupled climate model

Variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) exert an important influence on climate, particularly on decadal time scales. Simulation of the MOC in coupled climate models is compromised, to a degree that is unknown, by their lack of fidelity in resolving some of the key processes involved. There is an overarching need to increase the resolution and fidelity of climate models, but also to assess how increases in resolution influence the simulation of key phenomena such as the MOC. In this study we investigate the impact of significantly increasing the (ocean and atmosphere) resolution of a coupled climate model on the simulation of MOC variability by comparing high and low resolution versions of the same model. In both versions, decadal variability of the MOC is closely linked to density anomalies that propagate from the Labrador Sea southward along the deep western boundary. We demonstrate that the MOC adjustment proceeds more rapidly in the higher resolution model due the increased speed of western boundary waves. However, the response of the Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) to MOC variations is relatively robust - in pattern if not in magnitude - across the two resolutions. The MOC also excites a coupled ocean-atmosphere response in the tropical Atlantic in both model versions. In the higher resolution model, but not the lower resolution model, there is evidence of a significant response in the extratropical atmosphere over the North Atlantic 6 years after a maximum in the MOC. In both models there is evidence of a weak negative feedback on deep density anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and hence on the MOC (with a time scale of approximately ten years). Our results highlight the need for further work to understand the decadal variability of the MOC and its simulation in climate models.

The REFLEX project: Comparing different algorithms and implementations for the inversion of a terrestrial ecosystem model against eddy covariance data

We describe a model-data fusion (MDF) inter-comparison project (REFLEX), which compared various algorithms for estimating carbon (C) model parameters consistent with both measured carbon fluxes and states and a simple C model. Participants were provided with the model and with both synthetic net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 and leaf area index (LAI) data, generated from the model with added noise, and observed NEE and LAI data from two eddy covariance sites. Participants endeavoured to estimate model parameters and states consistent with the model for all cases over the two years for which data were provided, and generate predictions for one additional year without observations. Nine participants contributed results using Metropolis algorithms, Kalman filters and a genetic algorithm. For the synthetic data case, parameter estimates compared well with the true values. The results of the analyses indicated that parameters linked directly to gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration, such as those related to foliage allocation and turnover, or temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration, were best constrained and characterised. Poorly estimated parameters were those related to the allocation to and turnover of fine root/wood pools. Estimates of confidence intervals varied among algorithms, but several algorithms successfully located the true values of annual fluxes from synthetic experiments within relatively narrow 90% confidence intervals, achieving >80% success rate and mean NEE confidence intervals <110 gC m−2 year−1 for the synthetic case. Annual C flux estimates generated by participants generally agreed with gap-filling approaches using half-hourly data. The estimation of ecosystem respiration and GPP through MDF agreed well with outputs from partitioning studies using half-hourly data. Confidence limits on annual NEE increased by an average of 88% in the prediction year compared to the previous year, when data were available. Confidence intervals on annual NEE increased by 30% when observed data were used instead of synthetic data, reflecting and quantifying the addition of model error. Finally, our analyses indicated that incorporating additional constraints, using data on C pools (wood, soil and fine roots) would help to reduce uncertainties for model parameters poorly served by eddy covariance data.