Food crops in a changing climate

Changes in both the mean and the variability of climate, whether naturally forced, or due to human activities, pose a threat to crop production globally. This paper summarizes discussions of this issue at a meeting of the Royal Society in April 2005. Recent advances in understanding the sensitivity of crops to weather, climate and the levels of particular gases in the atmosphere indicate that the impact of these factors on crop yields and quality may be more severe than previously thought. There is increasing information on the importance to crop yields of extremes of temperature and rainfall at key stages of crop development. Agriculture will itself impact on the climate system and a greater understanding of these feedbacks is needed. Complex models are required to perform simulations of climate variability and change, together with predictions of how crops will respond to different climate variables. Variability of climate, such as that associated with El Niño events, has large impacts on crop production. If skilful predictions of the probability of such events occurring can be made a season or more in advance, then agricultural and other societal responses can be made. The development of strategies to adapt to variations in the current climate may also build resilience to changes in future climate. Africa will be the part of the world that is most vulnerable to climate variability and change, but knowledge of how to use climate information and the regional impacts of climate variability and change in Africa is rudimentary. In order to develop appropriate adaptation strategies globally, predictions about changes in the quantity and quality of food crops need to be considered in the context of the entire food chain from production to distribution, access and utilization. Recommendations for future research priorities are given.

Extinction processes in hot spots of avian biodiversity and the targeting of pre-emptive conservation action

Hot spots of endemism are regarded as important global sites for conservation as they are rich in threatened endemic species and currently experiencing extensive habitat loss. Targeting pre-emptive conservation action to sites that are currently relatively intact but which would be vulnerable to particular human activities if they occurred in the future is, however, also valuable but has received less attention. Here, we address this issue by using data on Endemic Bird Areas (EBAs). First, we identify the ecological factors that affect extinction risk in the face of particular human activities, and then use these insights to identify EBAs that should be priorities for pre-emptive conservation action. Threatened endemic species in EBAs are significantly more likely to be habitat specialists or relatively large-bodied than non-threatened species, when compared across avian families. Increasing habitat loss causes a significant increase in extinction risk among habitat specialists, but we found no evidence to suggest that the presence of alien species/human exploitation causes a significant increase in extinction risk among large-bodied species. This suggests that these particular human activities are contributing to high extinction risk among habitat specialists, but not among large-bodied species. Based on these analyses, we identify 39 EBAs containing 570 species (24% of the total in EBAs) that are not currently threatened with severe habitat loss, but would be ecologically vulnerable to future habitat loss should it occur. We show that these sites tend to be poorly represented in existing priority setting exercises involving hot spots, suggesting that vulnerability must be explicitly included within these exercises if such sites are to be adequately protected.

Evolution or extinction? Reflections on the future of research in educational leadership and management

Consideration of the quality, relevance and utility of research in educational leadership and management has been a growing concern of researchers, policy-makers and practitioners, but there is little agreement about its current state or priorities for development. The article reflects on the key criticisms that have been made of research in educational leadership and management in this issue, and elsewhere. It considers how we might begin to devise better ways of understanding its audiences, judging its quality and identifying priorities for the future. It argues that the research reflects its capture by those with particular interests or values, and impacts in ways which are complex and indirect. If educational leadership and management research is to be secure in its perceived value and contribution in the future, several developments are needed, including a greater emphasis on interdisciplinarity, an expansion of the range of methodologies, particularly qualtitative studies; and these shifts must be evident in training researchers as well as in the conduct of research.

In-service training needs in an African context: a study of headteacher and teacher perspectives in the Gucha District of Kenya

Improving the quality of teaching is an educational priority in Kenya, as in many developing countries. The present paper considers various aspects of in-service education, including views on the effectiveness of in-service, teacher and headteacher priorities in determining in-service needs and the constraints on providing in-service courses. These issues are examined though an empirical study of 30 secondary headteachers and 109 teachers in a district of Kenya. The results show a strong felt need for in-service provision together with a firm belief in the efficacy of in-service in raising pupil achievement. Headteachers had a stronger belief in the need for in-service for their teachers than did the teachers themselves. The priorities of both headteachers and teachers were dominated by the external pressures of the schools, in particular the pressures for curriculum innovation and examination success. The resource constraints on supporting attendance at in-service courses were the major problems facing headteachers. The results reflect the difficulties that responding to an externally driven in-service agenda creates in a context of scarce resources.

Childhood obesity: should primary school children be routinely screened? A systematic review and discussion of the evidence

Background: Population monitoring has been introduced in UK primary schools in an effort to track the growing obesity epidemic. It has been argued that parents should be informed of their child's results, but is there evidence that moving from monitoring to screening would be effective? We describe what is known about the effectiveness of monitoring and screening for overweight and obesity in primary school children and highlight areas where evidence is lacking and research should be prioritised. Design: Systematic review with discussion of evidence gaps and future research. Data sources: Published and unpublished studies ( any language) from electronic databases ( inception to July 2005), clinical experts, Primary Care Trusts and Strategic Health Authorities, and reference lists of retrieved studies. Review methods: We included any study that evaluated measures of overweight and obesity as part of a population-level assessment and excluded studies whose primary outcome measure was prevalence. Results: There were no trials assessing the effectiveness of monitoring or screening for overweight and obesity. Studies focussed on the diagnostic accuracy of measurements. Information on the attitudes of children, parents and health professionals to monitoring was extremely sparse. Conclusions: Our review found a lack of data on the potential impact of population monitoring or screening for obesity and more research is indicated. Identification of effective weight reduction strategies for children and clarification of the role of preventative measures are priorities. It is difficult to see how screening to identify individual children can be justified without effective interventions.

Taking time to understand: articulating relationships between technologies and organizations

Dynamic relationships between technologies and organizations are investigated through research on digital visualization technologies and their use in the construction sector. Theoretical work highlights mutual adaptation between technologies and organizations but does not explain instances of sustained, sudden, or increasing maladaptation. By focusing on the technological field, I draw attention to hierarchical structuring around inter-dependent levels of technology; technological priorities of diverse groups; power asymmetries and disjunctures between contexts of development and use. For complex technologies, such as digital technologies, I argue these field-level features explain why organizations peripheral to the field may experience difficulty using emerging technology.

Challenges in elevated CO2 experiments on forests

Current forest Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments are reaching completion. Therefore, it is time to define the scientific goals and priorities of future experimental facilities. In this opinion article, we discuss the following three overarching issues (i) What are the most urgent scientific questions and how can they be addressed? (ii) What forest ecosystems should be investigated? (iii) Which other climate change factors should be coupled with elevated CO2 concentrations in future experiments to better predict the effects of climate change? Plantations and natural forests can have conflicting purposes for high productivity and environmental protection. However, in both cases the assessment of carbon balance and how this will be affected by elevated CO2 concentrations and the interacting climate change factors is the most pressing priority for future experiments.

Interventions to promote healthy eating habits: evaluation and recommendations

Although in several EU Member States many public interventions have been running for the prevention and/or management of obesity and other nutrition-related health conditions, few have yet been formally evaluated. The multidisciplinary team of the EATWELL project will gather benchmark data on healthy eating interventions in EU Member States and review existing information on the effectiveness of interventions using a three-stage procedure (i) Assessment of the intervention's impact on consumer attitudes, consumer behaviour and diets; (ii) The impact of the change in diets on obesity and health and (iii) The value attached by society to these changes, measured in life years gained, cost savings and quality-adjusted life years. Where evaluations have been inadequate, EATWELL will gather secondary data and analyse them with a multidisciplinary approach incorporating models from the psychology and economics disciplines. Particular attention will be paid to lessons that can be learned from private sector that are transferable to the healthy eating campaigns in the public sector. Through consumer surveys and workshops with other stakeholders, EATWELL will assess the acceptability of the range of potential interventions. Armed with scientific quantitative evaluations of policy interventions and their acceptability to stakeholders, EATWELL expects to recommend more appropriate interventions for Member States and the EU, providing a one-stop guide to methods and measures in interventions evaluation, and outline data collection priorities for the future.

UK Food Standards Agency cis-monounsaturated fatty acid workshop report

The UK Food Standards Agency convened a group of expert scientists to review current research investigating the optimal dietary intake for n-9 cis-monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA). The aim was to review the mechanisms underlying the reported beneficial effects of MUFA on CHD risk, and to establish priorities for future research. The issue of optimal MUFA intake is contingent upon optimal total fat intake; however, there is no consensus of opinion on what the optimal total fat intake should be. Thus, it was recommended that a large multi-centre study should look at the effects on CHD risk of MUFA replacement of saturated fatty acids in relation to varying total fat intakes; this study should be of sufficient size to take account of genetic variation, sex, physical activity and stage of life factors, as well as being of sufficient duration to account for adaptation to diets. Recommendations for studies investigating the mechanistic effects of MUFA were also made. Methods of manipulating the food chain to increase MUFA at the expense of saturated fatty acids were also discussed.

UK Food Standards Agency alpha-linolenic acid workshop report

The UK Food Standards Agency convened a group of expert scientists to review current research investigating whether n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) from plant oils (a-linolenic acid; ALA) were as beneficial to cardiovascular health as the n-3 PUFA from the marine oils, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). The workshop also aimed to establish priorities for future research. Dietary intake of ALA has been associated with a beneficial effect on CHD; however, the results from studies investigating the effects of ALA supplementation on CHD risk factors have proved equivocal. The studies presented as part of the present workshop suggested little, if any, benefit of ALA, relative to linoleic acid, on risk factors for cardiovascular disease; the effects observed with fish-oil supplementation were not replicated by ALA supplementation. There is a need, therefore, to first prove the efficacy of ALA supplementation on cardiovascular disease, before further investigating effects on cardiovascular risk factors. The workshop considered that a beneficial effect of ALA on the secondary prevention of CHD still needed to be established, and there was no reason to look further at existing CHD risk factors in relation to ALA supplementation. The workshop also highlighted the possibility of feeding livestock ALA-rich oils to provide a means of increasing the dietary intake in human consumers of EPA and DHA.

Sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia): a beneficial forage legume

The Onobrychis genus comprises a few agronomically important forage legume species, with sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia) being the most widespread. O. viciifolia has a long history of traditional culture worldwide, but its use has declined in western countries over the last decades. It suffers from low productivity and is more difficult to maintain than other legumes but is known to have valuable characteristics such as palatability and drought tolerance. Recent studies suggest that it has several other highly beneficial properties due to its unique tannin and polyphenol composition. Condensed tannins present in Onobrychis species have been shown to confer anthelmintic properties, increase protein utilization and prevent bloating; they may also have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Positive effects on wildlife and honey production could also be advantageous in the context of sustainable farming. Modern breeding programmes have not been a priority, leading to a lack of genetic knowledge in comparison to extensively used forage legumes. It is expected that potential for O. viciifolia improvements could be achieved by rigorous characterization of the available germplasm and utilization of characters derived from close relatives of the genus. Breeding priorities for the future would include enhanced germination and improved early establishment, allied to the best anthelmintic properties observed in some varieties.

Private investment in the countryside: an assessment of the role of new houses and estates in sustaining the rural economy and environment

The British countryside has been shaped and sustained over the years by the establishment of landed estates. Some of our best known, and now most protected, landmarks derive from this tradition by which money, that was often sourced from outside the rural economy, was invested in land. Whilst there was some reversal in this trend during the last century, there is again a widespread desire among people of means to invest in new country property. Paragraph 3.21 of Planning Policy Guidance Note 7: The Countryside - Environmental Quality and Economic and Social Development was introduced in 1997 as a means of perpetuating the historic tradition of innovation in the countryside through the construction of fine individual houses in landscaped grounds. That it was considered necessary to use a special provision of this kind reflects the prevailing presumption of planning authorities against allowing private residential development in open countryside. The Government is currently reviewing rural planning policy and is focusing on higher density housing, affordable homes and the use of brownfield sites. There is an underlying conception that individual private house developments contribute nothing and are seen as the least attractive option for most development sites. The purpose of paragraph 3.21 lies outside the government’s priorities and its particular provisions may therefore be excluded in forthcoming ‘policy statements’. This paper seeks to examine the role of private investors wishing to build new houses in the countryside, and the impact that that might have on local economies. It explores the interpretation placed on PPG7 through an investigation of appeal sites, and concludes by making recommendations for the review process, including the retention of some form of exceptions policy for new build houses.

Built environment research in West Africa current trends and future directions

The countries in West Africa (WA) are pushing for socio-economic development. The construction sector has an important part to play in helping to realise these aspirations. This necessitates an increased emphasis on research in the built environment, as a key contributor to developing capacity, knowledge and technologies for the sector. The West Africa Built Environment Research (WABER) conference was initiated in 2008. The objective was to: help young built environment researchers in West Africa (WA) to develop their research work and skills through constructive face-to-face interaction with their peers and experienced international academics; supply a platform for interaction among more senior academics and an outlet for disseminating their research work; and to serve as a vehicle for developing the built environment field in Africa. Three conferences have so far been organised, 2009 - 2011, bringing together ~300 academics, researchers and practitioners from the WA region. This paper draws on content analysis of the 189 papers in the proceedings of three conferences: 2009 (25); 2010 (57) and 2011 (107). These papers provide a window into current research priorities and trends and, thus, offer an opportunity to understand the kinds of research work undertaken by built environment researchers in West Africa. The aim is to illuminate the main research themes and methods that are currently pursued and the limitations thereof. The findings lay bare some of the many challenges that are faced by academics in WA and provide suggestions for alternative directions for future research and development work with indications of a potential research agenda.

Organic food: what we know (and do not know) about consumers

This paper reports on the latest contributions to over 20 years of research on organic food consumers. There is a general consensus in the literature on the reasons why people buy organic food. However, there is also a gap between consumers’ generally positive attitude toward organic food and their relatively low level of actual purchases. Product differentiation based on intangible features, such as credence attributes such as organic, in fast-moving consumer goods categories is enjoying rapid growth. However, there are many difficulties with research in this area, including the errors inherent in research that relies on consumer self-reporting methodologies. Further, in relation to organic food, there is a divergence between consumers’ perception of its superior health features and scientific evidence. Fresh fruits and vegetables are of vital importance to the organic sector as they are the entry point for many customers and account for one-third of sales. Further, although there is a small proportion of dedicated organic food buyers, most sales come from the majority of buyers who switch between conventional and organic food purchases. This paper identifies the practical implications for generic organic food marketing campaigns, as well as for increasing sales of specific products. It concludes with suggested priorities for further research.

Using learning networks to understand complex systems: a case study of biological, geophysical and social research in the Amazon

Developing high-quality scientific research will be most effective if research communities with diverse skills and interests are able to share information and knowledge, are aware of the major challenges across disciplines, and can exploit economies of scale to provide robust answers and better inform policy. We evaluate opportunities and challenges facing the development of a more interactive research environment by developing an interdisciplinary synthesis of research on a single geographic region. We focus on the Amazon as it is of enormous regional and global environmental importance and faces a highly uncertain future. To take stock of existing knowledge and provide a framework for analysis we present a set of mini-reviews from fourteen different areas of research, encompassing taxonomy, biodiversity, biogeography, vegetation dynamics, landscape ecology, earth-atmosphere interactions, ecosystem processes, fire, deforestation dynamics, hydrology, hunting, conservation planning, livelihoods, and payments for ecosystem services. Each review highlights the current state of knowledge and identifies research priorities, including major challenges and opportunities. We show that while substantial progress is being made across many areas of scientific research, our understanding of specific issues is often dependent on knowledge from other disciplines. Accelerating the acquisition of reliable and contextualized knowledge about the fate of complex pristine and modified ecosystems is partly dependent on our ability to exploit economies of scale in shared resources and technical expertise, recognise and make explicit interconnections and feedbacks among sub-disciplines, increase the temporal and spatial scale of existing studies, and improve the dissemination of scientific findings to policy makers and society at large. Enhancing interaction among research efforts is vital if we are to make the most of limited funds and overcome the challenges posed by addressing large-scale interdisciplinary questions. Bringing together a diverse scientific community with a single geographic focus can help increase awareness of research questions both within and among disciplines, and reveal the opportunities that may exist for advancing acquisition of reliable knowledge. This approach could be useful for a variety of globally important scientific questions.