Carbon balance of UK peatlands: current state of knowledge and future research challenges

The retention of peatland carbon (C) and the ability to continue to draw down and store C from the atmosphere is not only important for the UK terrestrial carbon inventory, but also for a range of ecosystem services, the landscape value and the ecology and hydrology of ~15% of the land area of the UK. Here we review the current state of knowledge on the C balance of UK peatlands using several studies which highlight not only the importance of making good flux measurements, but also the spatial and temporal variability of different flux terms that characterise a landscape affected by a range of natural and anthropogenic processes and threats. Our data emphasise the importance of measuring (or accurately estimating) all components of the peatland C budget. We highlight the role of the aquatic pathway and suggest that fluxes are higher than previously thought. We also compare the contemporary C balance of several UK peatlands with historical rates of C accumulation measured using peat cores, thus providing a long-term context for present-day measurements and their natural year-on-year variability. Contemporary measurements from 2 sites suggest that current accumulation rates (–56 to –72 g C m–2 yr–1) are at the lower end of those seen over the last 150 yr in peat cores (–35 to –209 g C m–2 yr–1). Finally, we highlight significant current gaps in knowledge and identify where levels of uncertainty are high, as well as emphasise the research challenges that need to be addressed if we are to improve the measurement and prediction of change in the peatland C balance over future decades.

Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: setup and first results

Six land surface models and five global hydrological models participate in a model intercomparison project (WaterMIP), which for the first time compares simulation results of these different classes of models in a consistent way. In this paper the simulation setup is described and aspects of the multi-model global terrestrial water balance are presented. All models were run at 0.5 degree spatial resolution for the global land areas for a 15-year period (1985-1999) using a newly-developed global meteorological dataset. Simulated global terrestrial evapotranspiration, excluding Greenland and Antarctica, ranges from 415 to 586 mm year-1 (60,000 to 85,000 km3 year-1) and simulated runoff ranges from 290 to 457 mm year-1 (42,000 to 66,000 km3 year-1). Both the mean and median runoff fractions for the land surface models are lower than those of the global hydrological models, although the range is wider. Significant simulation differences between land surface and global hydrological models are found to be caused by the snow scheme employed. The physically-based energy balance approach used by land surface models generally results in lower snow water equivalent values than the conceptual degree-day approach used by global hydrological models. Some differences in simulated runoff and evapotranspiration are explained by model parameterizations, although the processes included and parameterizations used are not distinct to either land surface models or global hydrological models. The results show that differences between model are major sources of uncertainty. Climate change impact studies thus need to use not only multiple climate models, but also some other measure of uncertainty, (e.g. multiple impact models).

The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

Breakdown of hydrostatic balance at convective scales in the forecast errors in the Met Office Unified Model

For data assimilation in numerical weather prediction, the initial forecast-error covariance matrix Pf is required. For variational assimilation it is particularly important to prescribe an accurate initial matrix Pf, since Pf is either static (in the 3D-Var case) or constant at the beginning of each assimilation window (in the 4D-Var case). At large scales the atmospheric flow is well approximated by hydrostatic balance and this balance is strongly enforced in the initial matrix Pf used in operational variational assimilation systems such as that of the Met Office. However, at convective scales this balance does not necessarily hold any more. Here we examine the extent to which hydrostatic balance is valid in the vertical forecast-error covariances for high-resolution models in order to determine whether there is a need to relax this balance constraint in convective-scale data assimilation. We use the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) and a 1.5 km resolution version of the Unified Model for a case study characterized by the presence of convective activity. An ensemble of high-resolution forecasts valid up to three hours after the onset of convection is produced. We show that at 1.5 km resolution hydrostatic balance does not hold for forecast errors in regions of convection. This indicates that in the presence of convection hydrostatic balance should not be enforced in the covariance matrix used for variational data assimilation at this scale. The results show the need to investigate covariance models that may be better suited for convective-scale data assimilation. Finally, we give a measure of the balance present in the forecast perturbations as a function of the horizontal scale (from 3–90 km) using a set of diagnostics. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

The impact of 21st century Arctic sea ice decline on the climate and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and Svalbard’s glaciers and ice caps

The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. General circulation models (GCMs) suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by a factor of about 1.5 due, in part, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year sea ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the CMIP3 ensemble GCM predictions. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the ocean surface water during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmospheric GCM HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 2061-2090 from the CMIP3 HadGEM1 experiments. Here we use an RCM at 50km resolution over the Arctic and 25km over Svalbard, which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation. These experiments show that the projected 21stCentury sea ice decline alone causes large impacts to the surface mass balance (SMB) on Svalbard. However Greenland’s SMB is not significantly affected by sea ice decline alone, but responds with a strongly negative shift in SMB when changes to SST are incorporated into the experiments. This is the first study to characterise the impact of changes in future sea ice to Arctic terrestrial cryosphere mass balance.

Changes in area and geodetic mass balance of small glaciers, polar Urals, Russia, 1950-2008

Changes in area of 30 small glaciers (mostly <1 km2) in the northern Polar Urals (67.5-68.25 °N) between 1953 and 2000 were assessed using historic aerial photography from 1953 and 1960, ASTER and panchromatic Landsat ETM+ imagery from 2000, and data from 1981 and 2008 terrestrial surveys. Changes in volume and geodetic mass balance of IGAN and Obruchev glaciers were calculated using data from terrestrial surveys in 1963 and 2008. In total, glacier area declined by 22.3 ± 3.9% in the 1953/60-2000 period. The areas of individual glaciers decreased by 4-46%. Surfaces of Obruchev and IGAN glaciers lowered by 22.5 ± 1.7 m and 14.9 ± 2.1 m. Over 45 years, geodetic mass balances of Obruchev and IGAN glaciers were -20.66 ± 2.91 and -13.54 ± 2.57 m w.e. respectively. Glacier shrinkage in the Polar Urals is related to a summer warming of 1 °C between 1953-81 and 1981-2008 and its rates are consistent with other regions of northern Asia but are higher than in Scandinavia. While glacier shrinkage intensified in the 1981-2000 period relative to 1953-81, increasing winter precipitation and shading effects slowed glacier wastage in 2000-08.

Seasonal pattern of regional carbon balance in the central Rocky Mountains from surface and airborne measurements

[1] High-elevation forests represent a large fraction of potential carbon uptake in North America, but this uptake is not well constrained by observations. Additionally, forests in the Rocky Mountains have recently been severely damaged by drought, fire, and insect outbreaks, which have been quantified at local scales but not assessed in terms of carbon uptake at regional scales. The Airborne Carbon in the Mountains Experiment was carried out in 2007 partly to assess carbon uptake in western U.S. mountain ecosystems. The magnitude and seasonal change of carbon uptake were quantified by (1) paired upwind-downwind airborne CO2 observations applied in a boundary layer budget, (2) a spatially explicit ecosystem model constrained using remote sensing and flux tower observations, and (3) a downscaled global tracer transport inversion. Top-down approaches had mean carbon uptake equivalent to flux tower observations at a subalpine forest, while the ecosystem model showed less. The techniques disagreed on temporal evolution. Regional carbon uptake was greatest in the early summer immediately following snowmelt and tended to lessen as the region experienced dry summer conditions. This reduction was more pronounced in the airborne budget and inversion than in flux tower or upscaling, possibly related to lower snow water availability in forests sampled by the aircraft, which were lower in elevation than the tower site. Changes in vegetative greenness associated with insect outbreaks were detected using satellite reflectance observations, but impacts on regional carbon cycling were unclear, highlighting the need to better quantify this emerging disturbance effect on montane forest carbon cycling.