Numerical convergence of the Block-Maxima approach to the generalized extreme value distribution

In this paper we perform an analytical and numerical study of Extreme Value distributions in discrete dynamical systems. In this setting, recent works have shown how to get a statistics of extremes in agreement with the classical Extreme Value Theory. We pursue these investigations by giving analytical expressions of Extreme Value distribution parameters for maps that have an absolutely continuous invariant measure. We compare these analytical results with numerical experiments in which we study the convergence to limiting distributions using the so called block-maxima approach, pointing out in which cases we obtain robust estimation of parameters. In regular maps for which mixing properties do not hold, we show that the fitting procedure to the classical Extreme Value Distribution fails, as expected. However, we obtain an empirical distribution that can be explained starting from a different observable function for which Nicolis et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 97(21): 210602, 2006) have found analytical results.

Radar scattering from ice aggregates using the horizontally aligned oblate spheroid approximation

The assumed relationship between ice particle mass and size is profoundly important in radar retrievals of ice clouds, but, for millimeter-wave radars, shape and preferred orientation are important as well. In this paper the authors first examine the consequences of the fact that the widely used ‘‘Brown and Francis’’ mass–size relationship has often been applied to maximumparticle dimension observed by aircraftDmax rather than to the mean of the particle dimensions in two orthogonal directions Dmean, which was originally used by Brown and Francis. Analysis of particle images reveals that Dmax ’ 1.25Dmean, and therefore, for clouds for which this mass–size relationship holds, the consequences are overestimates of ice water content by around 53% and of Rayleigh-scattering radar reflectivity factor by 3.7 dB. Simultaneous radar and aircraft measurements demonstrate that much better agreement in reflectivity factor is provided by using this mass–size relationship with Dmean. The authors then examine the importance of particle shape and fall orientation for millimeter-wave radars. Simultaneous radar measurements and aircraft calculations of differential reflectivity and dual-wavelength ratio are presented to demonstrate that ice particles may usually be treated as horizontally aligned oblate spheroids with an axial ratio of 0.6, consistent with them being aggregates. An accurate formula is presented for the backscatter cross section apparent to a vertically pointing millimeter-wave radar on the basis of a modified version of Rayleigh–Gans theory. It is then shown that the consequence of treating ice particles as Mie-scattering spheres is to substantially underestimate millimeter-wave reflectivity factor when millimeter-sized particles are present, which can lead to retrieved ice water content being overestimated by a factor of 4.h

Genistein protects prostate cells against hydrogen peroxide-induced DNA damage and induces expression of genes involved in the defence against oxidative stress

Prostate cancer is one of the most frequent cancer types in Western societies and predominately occurs in the elderly male. The strong age-related increase of prostate cancer is associated with a progressive accumulation of oxidative DNA damage which is presumably supported by a decline of the cellular antioxidative defence during ageing. Risk of developing prostate cancer is much lower in many Asian countries where soy food is an integral part of diet. Therefore, isoflavones from soy were suggested to have chemopreventive activities in prostate cells. Here, we have investigated the hypothesis that the soy-isoflavone genistein could protect DNA of LAPC-4 prostate cells from oxidative stress-related damage by enhancing the expression of antioxidative genes and proteins. A 24 h preincubation with genistein (1-30 microM) protected cells from hydrogen peroxide-induced DNA damage, as determined by the comet assay. Analysis of two cDNA macroarrays, each containing 96 genes of biotransformation and stress response, revealed a modulated expression of 3 genes at 1 microM and of 19 genes at 10 microM genistein. Real-time PCR confirmed the induction of three genes encoding products with antioxidant activities, namely glutathione reductase (2.7-fold), microsomal glutathione S-transferase 1 (1.9-fold) and metallothionein 1X (6.3-fold), at 1-30 microM genistein. 17Beta-estradiol, in contrast, decreased the expression of metallothionein 1X at 0.3 microM (2.0-fold), possibly pointing to an estrogen receptor-mediated regulation of this gene. Immunocytochemical staining revealed an induction of metallothionein proteins at 30 microM genistein, while their intracellular localization was unaffected. Metallothioneins were previously found to protect cells from hydrogen peroxide-induced DNA damage. Hence, our findings indicate that genistein protects prostate cells from oxidative stress-related DNA damage presumably by inducing the expression of antioxidative products, such as metallothioneins. Genistein, therefore, might counteract the age-related decline of important antioxidative defence systems which in turn maintain DNA integrity.

Absolute high spectral resolution measurements of surface solar radiation for detection of water vapour continuum absorption

Solar-pointing Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy offers the capability to measure both the fine scale and broadband spectral structure of atmospheric transmission simultaneously across wide spectral regions. It is therefore suited to the study of both water vapour monomer and continuum absorption behaviours. However, in order to properly address this issue, it is necessary to radiatively calibrate the FTIR instrument response. A solar-pointing high-resolution FTIR spectrometer was deployed as part of the ‘Continuum Absorption by Visible and Infrared radiation and its Atmospheric Relevance’ (CAVIAR) consortium project. This paper describes the radiative calibration process using an ultra-high-temperature blackbody and the consideration of the related influence factors. The result is a radiatively calibrated measurement of the solar irradiation at the ground across the IR region from 2000 to 10 000 cm−1 with an uncertainty of between 3.3 and 5.9 per cent. This measurement is shown to be in good general agreement with a radiative-transfer model. The results from the CAVIAR field measurements are being used in ongoing studies of atmospheric absorbers, in particular the water vapour continuum.

Making sense of survival: refining the treatment of state preferences in neorealist theory

The assumption that ‘states' primary goal is survival’ lies at the heart of the neorealist paradigm. A careful examination of the assumption, however, reveals that neorealists draw upon a number of distinct interpretations of the ‘survival assumption’ that are then treated as if they are the same, pointing towards conceptual problems that surround the treatment of state preferences. This article offers a specification that focuses on two questions that highlight the role and function of the survival assumption in the neorealist logic: (i) what do states have to lose if they fail to adopt self-help strategies?; and (ii) how does concern for relevant losses motivate state behaviour and affect international outcomes? Answering these questions through the exploration of governing elites' sensitivity towards regime stability and territorial integrity of the state, in turn, addresses the aforementioned conceptual problems. This specification has further implications for the debates among defensive and offensive realists, potential extensions of the neorealist logic beyond the Westphalian states, and the relationship between neorealist theory and policy analysis.

A survey of human motion analysis using depth imagery

Analysis of human behaviour through visual information has been a highly active research topic in the computer vision community. This was previously achieved via images from a conventional camera, but recently depth sensors have made a new type of data available. This survey starts by explaining the advantages of depth imagery, then describes the new sensors that are available to obtain it. In particular, the Microsoft Kinect has made high-resolution real-time depth cheaply available. The main published research on the use of depth imagery for analysing human activity is reviewed. Much of the existing work focuses on body part detection and pose estimation. A growing research area addresses the recognition of human actions. The publicly available datasets that include depth imagery are listed, as are the software libraries that can acquire it from a sensor. This survey concludes by summarising the current state of work on this topic, and pointing out promising future research directions.

A method to diagnose boundary-layer type using Doppler lidar

A new technique for objective classification of boundary layers is applied to ground-based vertically pointing Doppler lidar and sonic anemometer data. The observed boundary layer has been classified into nine different types based on those in the Met Office ‘Lock’ scheme, using vertical velocity variance and skewness, along with attenuated backscatter coefficient and surface sensible heat flux. This new probabilistic method has been applied to three years of data from Chilbolton Observatory in southern England and a climatology of boundary-layer type has been created. A clear diurnal cycle is present in all seasons. The most common boundary-layer type is stable with no cloud (30.0% of the dataset). The most common unstable type is well mixed with no cloud (15.4%). Decoupled stratocumulus is the third most common boundary-layer type (10.3%) and cumulus under stratocumulus occurs 1.0% of the time. The occurrence of stable boundary-layer types is much higher in the winter than the summer and boundary-layer types capped with cumulus cloud are more prevalent in the warm seasons. The most common diurnal evolution of boundary-layer types, occurring on 52 days of our three-year dataset, is that of no cloud with the stability changing from stable to unstable during daylight hours. These results are based on 16393 hours, 62.4% of the three-year dataset, of diagnosed boundary-layer type. This new method is ideally suited to long-term evaluation of boundary-layer type parametrisations in weather forecast and climate models.

Effects of target expansion on selection performance in older computer users

Point and click interactions using a mouse are an integral part of computer use for current desktop systems. Compared with younger users though, older adults experience greater difficulties performing cursor positioning tasks, and this can present limitations to using a computer easily and effectively. Target expansion is a technique for improving pointing performance, where the target dynamically grows as the cursor approaches. This has the advantage that targets conserve screen real estate in their unexpanded state, yet can still provide the benefits of a larger area to click on. This paper presents two studies of target expansion with older and younger participants, involving multidirectional point-select tasks with a computer mouse. Study 1 compares static versus expanding targets, and Study 2 compares static targets with three alternative techniques for expansion. Results show that expansion can improve times by up to 14%, and reduce error rates by up to 50%. Additionally, expanding targets are beneficial even when the expansion happens late in the movement, i.e. after the cursor has reached the expanded target area or even after it has reached the original target area. Participants’ subjective feedback on the target expansion are generally favorable, and this lends further support for the technique.

Using Delboeuf's illusion to improve point and click performance for older adults

Older computer users often exhibit poorer performance in point and click tasks on a computer than younger adults. This paper reports on the first phase of research that examines whether a visual illusion that makes an object appear to be larger (Delboeuf‟s Illusion), can help to improve point and click performance for older computer users. In this first phase, we look at the effect sizes for different configurations of the Delboeuf illusion. The study finds that the target size is overestimated by 8% for both older and younger adults in one configuration, and 12% for older adults in another configuration. The results will inform the design of a second phase, in which the configurations which demonstrate the largest effects will be investigated using a Fitts‟-style study of pointing performance.

Broker use and the cost of liquidity in commercial real estate investment

Purpose – Commercial real estate is a highly specific asset: heterogeneous, indivisible and with less information transparency than most other commonly held investment assets. These attributes encourage the use of intermediaries during asset acquisition and disposal. However, there are few attempts to explain the use of different brokerage models (with differing costs) in different markets. This study aims to address this gap. Design/methodology/approach – The study analyses 9,338 real estate transactions in London and New York City from 2001 to 2011. Data are provided by Real Capital Analytics and cover over $450 billion of investments in this period. Brokerage trends in the two cities are compared and probit regressions are used to test whether the decision to transact with broker representation varies with investor or asset characteristics. Findings – Results indicate greater use of brokerage in London, especially by purchasers. This persists when data are disaggregated by sector, time or investor type, pointing to the role of local market culture and institutions in shaping brokerage models and transaction costs. Within each city, the nature of the investors involved seems to be a more significant influence on broker use than the characteristics of the assets being traded. Originality/value – Brokerage costs are the single largest non-tax charge to an investor when trading commercial real estate, yet there is little research in this area. This study examines the role of brokers and provides empirical evidence on factors that influence the use and mode of brokerage in two major investment destinations.

Agricultural policies exacerbate honeybee pollination service supply-demand mismatches across Europe

Declines in insect pollinators across Europe have raised concerns about the supply of pollination services to agriculture. Simultaneously, EU agricultural and biofuel policies have encouraged substantial growth in the cultivated area of insect pollinated crops across the continent. Using data from 41 European countries, this study demonstrates that the recommended number of honeybees required to provide crop pollination across Europe has risen 4.9 times as fast as honeybee stocks between 2005 and 2010. Consequently, honeybee stocks were insufficient to supply >90% of demands in 22 countries studied. These findings raise concerns about the capacity of many countries to cope with major losses of wild pollinators and highlight numerous critical gaps in current understanding of pollination service supplies and demands, pointing to a pressing need for further research into this issue.

Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum, Part 1: experiments and large-scale features

A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid-Holocene through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). This study presents the large-scale features of the simulated climates and compares the new model results to those of the atmospheric models from the first phase of the PMIP, for which sea surface temperature was prescribed or computed using simple slab ocean formulations. We consider the large-scale features of the climate change, pointing out some of the major differences between the different sets of experiments. We show in particular that systematic differences between PMIP1 and PMIP2 simulations are due to the interactive ocean, such as the amplification of the African monsoon at the Mid-Holocene or the change in precipitation in mid-latitudes at the LGM. Also the PMIP2 simulations are in general in better agreement with data than PMIP1 simulations.

Improvements in Aerosol Optical Depth Estimation Using Multiangle CHRIS/PROBA Images

A method has been developed to estimate aerosol optical depth (AOD) over land surfaces using high spatial resolution, hyperspectral, and multiangle Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (CHRIS)/Project for On Board Autonomy (PROBA) images. The CHRIS instrument is mounted aboard the PROBA satellite and provides up to 62 bands. The PROBA satellite allows pointing to obtain imagery from five different view angles within a short time interval. The method uses inversion of a coupled surface/atmosphere radiative transfer model and includes a general physical model of angular surface reflectance. An iterative process is used to determine the optimum value providing the best fit of the corrected reflectance values for a number of view angles and wavelengths with those provided by the physical model. This method has previously been demonstrated on data from the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer and is extended here to the spectral and angular sampling of CHRIS/PROBA. The values obtained from these observations are validated using ground-based sun-photometer measurements. Results from 22 image sets show an rms error of 0.11 in AOD at 550 nm, which is reduced to 0.06 after an automatic screening procedure.

Low-level mixing height detection in coastal locations with a scanning Doppler lidar

Mixing layer height (MLH) is one of the key parameters in describing lower tropospheric dynamics and capturing its diurnal variability is crucial, especially for interpreting surface observations. In this paper we introduce a method for identifying MLH below the minimum range of a scanning Doppler lidar when operated at vertical. The method we propose is based on velocity variance in low-elevation-angle conical scanning and is applied to measurements in two very different coastal environments: Limassol, Cyprus, during summer and Loviisa, Finland, during winter. At both locations, the new method agrees well with MLH derived from turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate profiles obtained from vertically pointing measurements. The low-level scanning routine frequently indicated non-zero MLH less than 100 m above the surface. Such low MLHs were more common in wintertime Loviisa on the Baltic Sea coast than during summertime in Mediterranean Limassol.

Frequency of infant stroking reported by mothers moderates the effect of prenatal depression on infant behavioural and physiological outcomes

Animal studies find that prenatal stress is associated with increased physiological and emotional reactivity later in life, mediated via fetal programming of the HPA axis through decreased glucocorticoid receptor (GR) gene expression. Post-natal behaviours, notably licking and grooming in rats, cause decreased behavioural indices of fear and reduced HPA axis reactivity mediated via increased GR gene expression. Post-natal maternal behaviours may therefore be expected to modify prenatal effects, but this has not previously been examined in humans. We examined whether, according to self-report, maternal stroking over the first weeks of life modified associations between prenatal depression and physiological and behavioral outcomes in infancy, hence mimicking effects of rodent licking and grooming. From a general population sample of 1233 first time mothers recruited at 20 weeks gestation we drew a stratified random sample of 316 for assessment at 32 weeks based on reported inter-partner psychological abuse, a risk to child development. Of these 271 provided data at 5, 9 and 29 weeks post delivery. Mothers reported how often they stroked their babies at 5 and 9 weeks. At 29 weeks vagal withdrawal to a stressor, a measure of physiological adaptability, and maternal reported negative emotionality were assessed. There was a significant interaction between prenatal depression and maternal stroking in the prediction of vagal reactivity to a stressor (p = .01), and maternal reports of infant anger proneness (p = .007) and fear (p = .043). Increasing maternal depression was associated with decreasing physiological adaptability, and with increasing negative emotionality, only in the presence of low maternal stroking. These initial findings in humans indicate that maternal stroking in infancy, as reported by mothers, has effects strongly resembling the effects of observed maternal behaviours in animals, pointing to future studies of the epigenetic, physiological and behavioral effects of maternal stroking.