A new adaptive multiple modelling approach for non-linear and non-stationary systems

This paper proposes a novel adaptive multiple modelling algorithm for non-linear and non-stationary systems. This simple modelling paradigm comprises K candidate sub-models which are all linear. With data available in an online fashion, the performance of all candidate sub-models are monitored based on the most recent data window, and M best sub-models are selected from the K candidates. The weight coefficients of the selected sub-model are adapted via the recursive least square (RLS) algorithm, while the coefficients of the remaining sub-models are unchanged. These M model predictions are then optimally combined to produce the multi-model output. We propose to minimise the mean square error based on a recent data window, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters, leading to a closed-form solution, so that maximal computational efficiency can be achieved. In addition, at each time step, the model prediction is chosen from either the resultant multiple model or the best sub-model, whichever is the best. Simulation results are given in comparison with some typical alternatives, including the linear RLS algorithm and a number of online non-linear approaches, in terms of modelling performance and time consumption.

Linear viscoelasticity from molecular dynamics simulation of entangled polymers

The linear viscoelastic (LVE) spectrum is one of the primary fingerprints of polymer solutions and melts, carrying information about most relaxation processes in the system. Many single chain theories and models start with predicting the LVE spectrum to validate their assumptions. However, until now, no reliable linear stress relaxation data were available from simulations of multichain systems. In this work, we propose a new efficient way to calculate a wide variety of correlation functions and mean-square displacements during simulations without significant additional CPU cost. Using this method, we calculate stress−stress autocorrelation functions for a simple bead−spring model of polymer melt for a wide range of chain lengths, densities, temperatures, and chain stiffnesses. The obtained stress−stress autocorrelation functions were compared with the single chain slip−spring model in order to obtain entanglement related parameters, such as the plateau modulus or the molecular weight between entanglements. Then, the dependence of the plateau modulus on the packing length is discussed. We have also identified three different contributions to the stress relaxation:  bond length relaxation, colloidal and polymeric. Their dependence on the density and the temperature is demonstrated for short unentangled systems without inertia.

Comment on ``Piecewise potential vorticity inversion: Elementary tests''

Egger (2008) constructs some idealised experiments to test the usefulness of piecewise potential vorticity inversion (PPVI) in the diagnosis of Rossby wave dynamics and baroclinic development. He concludes that, ``PPVI does not help us to understand the dynamics of linear Rossby waves. It provides local tendencies of the streamfunction which are unrelated to the true ones. The same way, the motion of baroclinic waves in shear flow cannot be understood by using PPVI. Moreover, the effect of boundary temperatures as determined by PPVI is unrelated to the flow evolution.'' He goes further in arguing that we should not consider velocities as ``induced'' by PV anomalies defined by carving up the global domain. However, these conclusions partly reflect the limitations of his idealised experiments and the manner in which the PV components were partitioned from one another.

Private industrial project management: a systems-based case study

The technique of linear responsibility analysis is used for a retrospective case study of a private industrial development consisting of an extension to existing buildings to provide a warehouse, services block and packing line. The organizational structure adopted on the project is analysed using concepts from systems theory which are included in Walker's theoretical model of the structure of building project organizations (Walker, 1981). This model proposes that the process of building provision can be viewed as systems and subsystems which are differentiated from each other at decision points. Further to this, the subsystems can be viewed as the interaction of managing system and operating system. Using Walker's model, a systematic analysis of the relationships between the contributors gives a quantitative assessment of the efficacy of the organizational structure used. The causes of the client's dissatisfaction with the outcome of the project were lack of integration and complexity of the managing system. However, there was a high level of satisfaction with the completed project and this is reflected by the way in which the organization structure corresponded to the model's propositions.

A conventionally managed project: a systems based case study

The technique of linear responsibility analysis is used for a retrospective case study of a private development consisting of an extension to an existing building to provide a wholesale butchery facility. The project used a conventionally organized management process. The organization structure adopted on the project is analysed using concepts from the systems theory, which are included in Walkers theoretical model of the structure of building project organizations. This model proposes that the process of building provision can be viewed as systems and sub-systems that are differentiated from each other at decision points. Further to this, the sub-systems can be viewed as the interaction of managing system and operating system. Using Walkers model, a systematic analysis of the relationships between the contributors gives a quantitative assessment of the efficiency of the organizational structure used. The project's organization structure diverged from the models propositions resulting in delay to the project's completion and cost overrun but the client was satisfied with the project functionally.

A project managed by a multi disciplinary practice: a systems based case study.

The technique of linear responsibility analysis is used for a retrospective case study of a private industrial development consisting of an engineering factory and offices. A multi-disciplinary professional practice was used to manage and design the project. The organizational structure adopted on the project is analysed using concepts from systems theory which are included in Walker's theoretical model of the structure of building project organizations (Walker, 1981). This model proposes that the process of buildings provision can be viewed as systems and sub-systems which are differentiated form each other at decision points. Further to this, the sub-systematic analysis of the relationship between the contributors gives a quantitative assessment of the efficiency of the organizational structure used. There was a high level of satisfaction with the completed project and this is reflected by the way in which the organization structure corresponded to the model's proposition. However, the project was subject to string environmental forces which the project organization was not capable of entirely overcoming.

An analysis of the management of a public sector project: a systems-based case study

The management of a public sector project is analysed using a model developed from systems theory. Linear responsibility analysis is used to identify the primary and key decision structure of the project and to generate quantitative data regarding differentiation and integration of the operating system, the managing system and the client/project team. The environmental context of the project is identified. Conclusions are drawn regarding the project organization structure's ability to cope with the prevailing environmental conditions. It is found that the complexity of the managing system imposed on the project was unable to achieve this and created serious deficiencies in the outcome of the project.

Linear and nonlinear microrheology of dense colloidal suspensions

The length and time scales accessible to optical tweezers make them an ideal tool for the examination of colloidal systems. Embedded high-refractive-index tracer particles in an index-matched hard sphere suspension provide 'handles' within the system to investigate the mechanical behaviour. Passive observations of the motion of a single probe particle give information about the linear response behaviour of the system, which can be linked to the macroscopic frequency-dependent viscous and elastic moduli of the suspension. Separate 'dragging' experiments allow observation of a sample's nonlinear response to an applied stress on a particle-by particle basis. Optical force measurements have given new data about the dynamics of phase transitions and particle interactions; an example in this study is the transition from liquid-like to solid-like behaviour, and the emergence of a yield stress and other effects attributable to nearest-neighbour caging effects. The forces needed to break such cages and the frequency of these cage breaking events are investigated in detail for systems close to the glass transition.

Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.

Farming systems methodology for efficient resource management at the farm level: a review from an Indian perspective

Farming systems research is a multi-disciplinary holistic approach to solve the problems of small farms. Small and marginal farmers are the core of the Indian rural economy Constituting 0.80 of the total farming community but possessing only 0.36 of the total operational land. The declining trend of per capita land availability poses a serious challenge to the sustainability and profitability of farming. Under such conditions, it is appropriate to integrate land-based enterprises such as dairy, fishery, poultry, duckery, apiary, field and horticultural cropping within the farm, with the objective of generating adequate income and employment for these small and marginal farmers Under a set of farm constraints and varying levels of resource availability and Opportunity. The integration of different farm enterprises can be achieved with the help of a linear programming model. For the current review, integrated farming systems models were developed, by Way Of illustration, for the marginal, small, medium and large farms of eastern India using linear programming. Risk analyses were carried out for different levels of income and enterprise combinations. The fishery enterprise was shown to be less risk-prone whereas the crop enterprise involved greater risk. In general, the degree of risk increased with the increasing level of income. With increase in farm income and risk level, the resource use efficiency increased. Medium and large farms proved to be more profitable than small and marginal farms with higher level of resource use efficiency and return per Indian rupee (Rs) invested. Among the different enterprises of integrated farming systems, a chain of interaction and resource flow was observed. In order to make fanning profitable and improve resource use efficiency at the farm level, the synergy among interacting components of farming systems should be exploited. In the process of technology generation, transfer and other developmental efforts at the farm level (contrary to the discipline and commodity-based approaches which have a tendency to be piecemeal and in isolation), it is desirable to place a whole-farm scenario before the farmers to enhance their farm income, thereby motivating them towards more efficient and sustainable fanning.

Alternatives to linear analysis of energy balance data from lactating dairy cows

The current energy requirements system used in the United Kingdom for lactating dairy cows utilizes key parameters such as metabolizable energy intake (MEI) at maintenance (MEm), the efficiency of utilization of MEI for 1) maintenance, 2) milk production (k(l)), 3) growth (k(g)), and the efficiency of utilization of body stores for milk production (k(t)). Traditionally, these have been determined using linear regression methods to analyze energy balance data from calorimetry experiments. Many studies have highlighted a number of concerns over current energy feeding systems particularly in relation to these key parameters, and the linear models used for analyzing. Therefore, a database containing 652 dairy cow observations was assembled from calorimetry studies in the United Kingdom. Five functions for analyzing energy balance data were considered: straight line, two diminishing returns functions, (the Mitscherlich and the rectangular hyperbola), and two sigmoidal functions (the logistic and the Gompertz). Meta-analysis of the data was conducted to estimate k(g) and k(t). Values of 0.83 to 0.86 and 0.66 to 0.69 were obtained for k(g) and k(t) using all the functions (with standard errors of 0.028 and 0.027), respectively, which were considerably different from previous reports of 0.60 to 0.75 for k(g) and 0.82 to 0.84 for k(t). Using the estimated values of k(g) and k(t), the data were corrected to allow for body tissue changes. Based on the definition of k(l) as the derivative of the ratio of milk energy derived from MEI to MEI directed towards milk production, MEm and k(l) were determined. Meta-analysis of the pooled data showed that the average k(l) ranged from 0.50 to 0.58 and MEm ranged between 0.34 and 0.64 MJ/kg of BW0.75 per day. Although the constrained Mitscherlich fitted the data as good as the straight line, more observations at high energy intakes (above 2.4 MJ/kg of BW0.75 per day) are required to determine conclusively whether milk energy is related to MEI linearly or not.

Comparing rice production systems: A challenge for agronomic research and for the dissemination of knowledge-intensive farming practices

This article is a commentary on several research studies conducted on the prospects for aerobic rice production systems that aim at reducing the demand for irrigation water which in certain major rice producing areas of the world is becoming increasingly scarce. The research studies considered, as reported in published articles mainly under the aegis of the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), have a narrow scope in that they test only 3 or 4 rice varieties under different soil moisture treatments obtained with controlled irrigation, but with other agronomic factors of production held as constant. Consequently, these studies do not permit an assessment of the interactions among agronomic factors that will be of critical significance to the performance of any production system. Varying the production factor of "water" will seriously affect also the levels of the other factors required to optimise the performance of a production system. The major weakness in the studies analysed in this article originates from not taking account of the interactions between experimental and non-experimental factors involved in the comparisons between different production systems. This applies to the experimental field design used for the research studies as well as to the subsequent statistical analyses of the results. The existence of such interactions is a serious complicating element that makes meaningful comparisons between different crop production systems difficult. Consequently, the data and conclusions drawn from such research readily become biased towards proposing standardised solutions for possible introduction to farmers through a linear technology transfer process. Yet, the variability and diversity encountered in the real-world farming environment demand more flexible solutions and approaches in the dissemination of knowledge-intensive production practices through "experiential learning" types of processes, such as those employed by farmer field schools. This article illustrates, based on expertise of the 'system of rice intensification' (SRI), that several cost-effective and environment-friendly agronomic solutions to reduce the demand for irrigation water, other than the asserted need for the introduction of new cultivars, are feasible. Further, these agronomic Solutions can offer immediate benefits of reduced water requirements and increased net returns that Would be readily accessible to a wide range of rice producers, particularly the resource poor smallholders. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the calving pattern of herds in small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico

This study sets out to find the best calving pattern for small-scale dairy systems in Michoacan State, central Mexico. Two models were built. First, a linear programming model was constructed to optimize calving pattern and herd structure according to metabolizable energy availability. Second, a Markov chain model was built to investigate three reproductive scenarios (good, average and poor) in order to suggest factors that maintain the calving pattern given by the linear programming model. Though it was not possible to maintain the optimal linear programming pattern, the Markov chain model suggested adopting different reproduction strategies according to period of the year that the cow is expected to calve. Comparing different scenarios, the Markov model indicated the effect of calving interval on calving pattern and herd structure.