Vibrational perturbation theory

Expressions are derived for the Jacobian of the coriolis ζ interaction constants and the centrifugal stretching constants (DJ, DJK, etc.) with respect to the force constants in a vibrating-rotating molecule.

A simple theoretical model for the intensification of tropical cyclones and polar lows

A simple theoretical model for the intensification of tropical cyclones and polar lows is developed using a minimal set of physical assumptions. These disturbances are assumed to be balanced systems intensifying through the WISHE (Wind-Induced Surface Heat Exchange) intensification mechanism, driven by surface fluxes of heat and moisture into an atmosphere which is neutral to moist convection. The equation set is linearized about a resting basic state and solved as an initial-value problem. A system is predicted to intensify with an exponential perturbation growth rate scaled by the radial gradient of an efficiency parameter which crudely represents the effects of unsaturated processes. The form of this efficiency parameter is assumed to be defined by initial conditions, dependent on the nature of a pre-existing vortex required to precondition the atmosphere to a state in which the vortex can intensify. Evaluation of the simple model using a primitive-equation, nonlinear numerical model provides support for the prediction of exponential perturbation growth. Good agreement is found between the simple and numerical models for the sensitivities of the measured growth rate to various parameters, including surface roughness, the rate of transfer of heat and moisture from the ocean surface, and the scale for the growing vortex.

A Nyström method for a boundary value problem arising in unsteady water wave problems

This paper is concerned with solving numerically the Dirichlet boundary value problem for Laplace’s equation in a nonlocally perturbed half-plane. This problem arises in the simulation of classical unsteady water wave problems. The starting point for the numerical scheme is the boundary integral equation reformulation of this problem as an integral equation of the second kind on the real line in Preston et al. (2008, J. Int. Equ. Appl., 20, 121–152). We present a Nystr¨om method for numerical solution of this integral equation and show stability and convergence, and we present and analyse a numerical scheme for computing the Dirichlet-to-Neumann map, i.e., for deducing the instantaneous fluid surface velocity from the velocity potential on the surface, a key computational step in unsteady water wave simulations. In particular, we show that our numerical schemes are superalgebraically convergent if the fluid surface is infinitely smooth. The theoretical results are illustrated by numerical experiments.

'A load too heavy': Critical reflections on the child labor problem in Africa's small-scale mining sector

This paper provides an extended analysis of the child labor problem in the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector, focusing specifically on the situation in sub-Saharan Africa. In recent years, the issue of child labor in ASM has garnered significant attention from the International Labor Organization (ILO), which has been particularly active in raising public awareness of the problem; and, has proceeded to implement policies and collaborative project work aimed at Curtailing children's participation in ASM activities in a number of African countries. The analysis concludes with a critical appraisal of an ILO project recently launched in the Talensi-Nabdam District in the Upper East Region of Ghana, which sheds light on how the child labor problem is being tackled in practice in ASM communities in sub-Saharan Africa. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An old problem revisited - and solved: Upton and Dalton's linear production response: A note

This note presents a robust method for estimating response surfaces that consist of linear response regimes and a linear plateau. The linear response-and-plateau model has fascinated production scientists since von Liebig (1855) and, as Upton and Dalton indicated, some years ago in this Journal, the response-and-plateau model seems to fit the data in many empirical studies. The estimation algorithm evolves from Bayesian implementation of a switching-regression (finite mixtures) model and demonstrates routine application of Gibbs sampling and data augmentation-techniques that are now in widespread application in other disciplines.

A cost-benefit analysis of culling badgers to control bovine tuberculosis

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is an important economic problem. The incidence of TB in cattle herds has steadily risen in the UK, and badgers are strongly implicated in spreading disease. Since the mid-1970s the UK government has adopted a number of badger culling strategies to attempt to reduce infection in cattle. In this report, an established model has been used to simulate TB in badgers, transmission to cattle, and control by badger culling. Costs were supplied by the UK Government's Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) for badger trapping and gassing. Regardless of culling intensity or area simulated, an overall reduction in the herd breakdown rate was seen. With a high culling efficacy and no social perturbation, the mean Net Present Value of a few simulated culling strategies in an "ideal world" was positive, meaning the economic benefits outweighed the costs. Further work is required before these results could be considered definitive, as it is necessary to evaluate uncertainties and simulate less than perfect conditions. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-benefit analysis model of badger (Meles meles) culling to reduce cattle herd tuberculosis breakdowns in Britain, with particular reference to badger perturbation

Bovine tuberculosis (TB)is an important economic disease. Badgers (Meles meles) are the wildlife source implicated in many cattle outbreaks of TB in Britain, and extensive badger control is a controversial option to reduce the disease. A badger and cattle population model was developed, simulating TB epidemiology; badger ecology, including postcull social perturbation; and TB-related farm management. An economic cost-benefit module was integrated into the model to assess whether badger control offers economic benefits. Model results strongly indicate that although, if perturbation were restricted, extensive badger culling could reduce rates in cattle, overall an economic loss would be more likely than a benefit. Perturbation of the badger population was a key factor determining success or failure of control. The model highlighted some important knowledge gaps regarding both the spatial and temporal characteristics of perturbation that warrant further research.

The effects of environmental perturbation and measurement error on estimates of the shape parameter in the theta-logistic model of population regulation

The theta-logistic is a widely used generalisation of the logistic model of regulated biological processes which is used in particular to model population regulation. Then the parameter theta gives the shape of the relationship between per-capita population growth rate and population size. Estimation of theta from population counts is however subject to bias, particularly when there are measurement errors. Here we identify factors disposing towards accurate estimation of theta by simulation of populations regulated according to the theta-logistic model. Factors investigated were measurement error, environmental perturbation and length of time series. Large measurement errors bias estimates of theta towards zero. Where estimated theta is close to zero, the estimated annual return rate may help resolve whether this is due to bias. Environmental perturbations help yield unbiased estimates of theta. Where environmental perturbations are large, estimates of theta are likely to be reliable even when measurement errors are also large. By contrast where the environment is relatively constant, unbiased estimates of theta can only be obtained if populations are counted precisely Our results have practical conclusions for the design of long-term population surveys. Estimation of the precision of population counts would be valuable, and could be achieved in practice by repeating counts in at least some years. Increasing the length of time series beyond ten or 20 years yields only small benefits. if populations are measured with appropriate accuracy, given the level of environmental perturbation, unbiased estimates can be obtained from relatively short censuses. These conclusions are optimistic for estimation of theta. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

The extrapolation problem and how population modeling can help

We argue that population modeling can add value to ecological risk assessment by reducing uncertainty when extrapolating from ecotoxicological observations to relevant ecological effects. We review other methods of extrapolation, ranging from application factors to species sensitivity distributions to suborganismal (biomarker and "-omics'') responses to quantitative structure activity relationships and model ecosystems, drawing attention to the limitations of each. We suggest a simple classification of population models and critically examine each model in an extrapolation context. We conclude that population models have the potential for adding value to ecological risk assessment by incorporating better understanding of the links between individual responses and population size and structure and by incorporating greater levels of ecological complexity. A number of issues, however, need to be addressed before such models are likely to become more widely used. In a science context, these involve challenges in parameterization, questions about appropriate levels of complexity, issues concerning how specific or general the models need to be, and the extent to which interactions through competition and trophic relationships can be easily incorporated.

Glycogen phosphorylase inhibitors: a free energy perturbation analysis of glucopyranose spirohydantoin analogues

GP catalyzes the phosphorylation of glycogen to Glc-1-P. Because of its fundamental role in the metabolism of glycogen, GP has been the target for a systematic structure-assisted design of inhibitory compounds, which could be of value in the therapeutic treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The most potent catalytic-site inhibitor of GP identified to date is spirohydantoin of glucopyranose (hydan). In this work, we employ MD free energy simulations to calculate the relative binding affinities for GP of hydan and two spirohydantoin analogues, methyl-hydan and n-hydan, in which a hydrogen atom is replaced by a methyl- or amino group, respectively. The results are compared with the experimental relative affinities of these ligands, estimated by kinetic measurements of the ligand inhibition constants. The calculated binding affinity for methyl-hydan (relative to hydan) is 3.75 +/- 1.4 kcal/mol, in excellent agreement with the experimental value (3.6 +/- 0.2 kcal/mol). For n-hydan, the calculated value is 1.0 +/- 1.1 kcal/mol, somewhat smaller than the experimental result (2.3 +/- 0.1 kcal/mol). A free energy decomposition analysis shows that hydan makes optimum interactions with protein residues and specific water molecules in the catalytic site. In the other two ligands, structural perturbations of the active site by the additional methyl- or amino group reduce the corresponding binding affinities. The computed binding free energies are sensitive to the preference of a specific water molecule for two well-defined positions in the catalytic site. The behavior of this water is analyzed in detail, and the free energy profile for the translocation of the water between the two positions is evaluated. The results provide insights into the role of water molecules in modulating ligand binding affinities. A comparison of the interactions between a set of ligands and their surrounding groups in X-ray structures is often used in the interpretation of binding free energy differences and in guiding the design of new ligands. For the systems in this work, such an approach fails to estimate the order of relative binding strengths, in contrast to the rigorous free energy treatment.