A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

Abstract We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.

Parametric preference functionals under risk in the gain domain: a Bayesian analysis

The performance of rank dependent preference functionals under risk is comprehensively evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Model comparisons are made at three levels of heterogeneity plus three ways of linking deterministic and stochastic models: the differences in utilities, the differences in certainty equivalents and contextualutility. Overall, the"bestmodel", which is conditional on the form of heterogeneity is a form of Rank Dependent Utility or Prospect Theory that cap tures the majority of behaviour at both the representative agent and individual level. However, the curvature of the probability weighting function for many individuals is S-shaped, or ostensibly concave or convex rather than the inverse S-shape commonly employed. Also contextual utility is broadly supported across all levels of heterogeneity. Finally, the Priority Heuristic model, previously examined within a deterministic setting, is estimated within a stochastic framework, and allowing for endogenous thresholds does improve model performance although it does not compete well with the other specications considered.

State-resolved gas-surface reactivity of methane in the symmetric C-H stretch vibration on Ni(100)

The state-resolved reactivity of CH4 in its totally symmetric C-H stretch vibration (�1) has been measured on a Ni(100) surface. Methane molecules were accelerated to kinetic energies of 49 and 63:5 kJ=mol in a molecular beam and vibrationally excited to �1 by stimulated Raman pumping before surface impact at normal incidence. The reactivity of the symmetric-stretch excited CH4 is about an order of magnitude higher than that of methane excited to the antisymmetric stretch (�3) reported by Juurlink et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 83, 868 (1999)] and is similar to that we have previously observed for the excitation of the first overtone (2�3). The difference between the state-resolved reactivity for �1 and �3 is consistent with predictions of a vibrationally adiabatic model of the methane reaction dynamics and indicates that statistical models cannot correctly describe the chemisorption of CH4 on nickel.