Reconciling model and information uncertainty in development appraisal

This paper investigates the effect of choices of model structure and scale in development viability appraisal. The paper addresses two questions concerning the application of development appraisal techniques to viability modelling within the UK planning system. The first relates to the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the choice of model structure significantly affects model outputs. The second concerns the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the level of model complexity significantly affects model outputs. Monte Carlo simulation procedures are applied to a hypothetical development scheme in order to measure the effects of model aggregation and structure on model output variance. It is concluded that, given the particular scheme modelled and unavoidably subjective assumptions of input variance, simple and simplistic models may produce similar outputs to more robust and disaggregated models.

Stable Nonlinear Receding Horizon Regulator Using RBF Neural Network Models

The general stability theory of nonlinear receding horizon controllers has attracted much attention over the last fifteen years, and many algorithms have been proposed to ensure closed-loop stability. On the other hand many reports exist regarding the use of artificial neural network models in nonlinear receding horizon control. However, little attention has been given to the stability issue of these specific controllers. This paper addresses this problem and proposes to cast the nonlinear receding horizon control based on neural network models within the framework of an existing stabilising algorithm.

The compact city and the residential developer

Although the compact city is widely promoted as a sustainable form of urban development, little attention has been paid to the feasilibity of its implementation in practice. This paper addresses this isse by presenting the findings of a questionnaire study into the viability of the compact city from the perspective of the volume housebuilder. The study shows that, although well aware of the inherent problems witht the compact city, most were generally positive about the need to redirect more development back into urban areas. In addition, they suggested a large number of strategies for change, including i) a role for public sector agencies in overcoming the condstraints on urban sites; ii) the need for an upward reveision of acceptable densities in local plans and design guides; and iii) the creation of a separate, or revised, Use Class Order to enable mixed use development to compete on a level playing field. It is concluded that the residential developer could be engaged in the process of urban containment provided proposals for implementing the compact city of devised. The need for continuing research to test the actual effects of specific schemes is emphasised.

Communication and social regulation. the criminalization of work-related death

This paper addresses the movement towards criminalization as a tool for the regulation of work-related deaths in the United Kingdom and elsewhere in the last 20 years. This can be seen as reflecting dissatisfaction with the relevant law, although it is best understood in symbolic terms as a response to a disjunction between the instrumental nature and communicative aspirations of regulatory law. This paper uses empirical data gathered from interviews with members of the public to explore the role that such an offence might play. The findings demonstrate that the failures of regulatory law give rise to a desire for criminalization as a means of framing work-related safety events in normative terms.

Landscape, regional and global estimates of nitrogen flux from land to sea: errors and uncertainties

Regional to global scale modelling of N flux from land to ocean has progressed to date through the development of simple empirical models representing bulk N flux rates from large watersheds, regions, or continents on the basis of a limited selection of model parameters. Watershed scale N flux modelling has developed a range of physically-based approaches ranging from models where N flux rates are predicted through a physical representation of the processes involved, through to catchment scale models which provide a simplified representation of true systems behaviour. Generally, these watershed scale models describe within their structure the dominant process controls on N flux at the catchment or watershed scale, and take into account variations in the extent to which these processes control N flux rates as a function of landscape sensitivity to N cycling and export. This paper addresses the nature of the errors and uncertainties inherent in existing regional to global scale models, and the nature of error propagation associated with upscaling from small catchment to regional scale through a suite of spatial aggregation and conceptual lumping experiments conducted on a validated watershed scale model, the export coefficient model. Results from the analysis support the findings of other researchers developing macroscale models in allied research fields. Conclusions from the study confirm that reliable and accurate regional scale N flux modelling needs to take account of the heterogeneity of landscapes and the impact that this has on N cycling processes within homogenous landscape units.

Boundaries and Bridges: the influence of James Cooksey Culwick on the development of the teaching and learning of music in nineteenth century Ireland

James Cooksey Culwick (1845-1907) was born in England. Trained as chorister and organist in Lichfield Cathedral, he moved to Ireland at twenty- one and remained until his death in 1907. Although his reputation as scholar, musician and teacher was acknowledged widely during his lifetime - he received an honorary doctorate from University of Dublin (1893) - little is known about the contribution he made to music education. This paper addresses this gap in the literature and argues that it was Culwick's singular achievement to pay attention to music pedagogy at secondary level, by recognizing that music could be seen as a serious career option for girls, and by providing resources for teachers which emphasised the development of an 'art-feeling' in pupils of all abilities. In addition, he considered Irish music as an art which had significance as music first, and Irish music second, and advocated a 'laudable tolerance' for opposing views on matters of cultural identity to Ireland at the end of the nineteenth century.

Motivations behind farmers’ pesticide use in Bangladesh rice farming

This paper addresses the motivations behind farmers’ pesticide use in two regions of Bangladesh. The paper considers farmers’ knowledge of arthropods and their perceptions about pests and pest damage, and identifies why many farmers do not use recommended pest management practices. We propose that using the novel approach of classifying farmers according to their motivations and constraints rather than observed pesticide use can improve training approaches and increase farmers’ uptake and retention of more appropriate integrated pest management technologies.

Planetary-wave-induced transport in the stratosphere

In the stratosphere, chemical tracers are drawn systematically from the equator to the pole. This observed Brewer–Dobson circulation is driven by wave drag, which in the stratosphere arises mainly from the breaking and dissipation of planetary-scale Rossby waves. While the overall sense of the circulation follows from fundamental physical principles, a quantitative theoretical understanding of the connection between wave drag and Lagrangian transport is limited to linear, small-amplitude waves. However, planetary waves in the stratosphere generally grow to a large amplitude and break in a strongly nonlinear fashion. This paper addresses the connection between stratospheric wave drag and Lagrangian transport in the presence of strong nonlinearity, using a mechanistic three-dimensional primitive equations model together with offline particle advection. Attention is deliberately focused on a weak forcing regime, such that sudden warmings do not occur and a quasi-steady state is reached, in order to examine this question in the cleanest possible context. Wave drag is directly linked to the transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) circulation, which is often used as a surrogate for mean Lagrangian motion. The results show that the correspondence between the TEM and mean Lagrangian velocities is quantitatively excellent in regions of linear, nonbreaking waves (i.e., outside the surf zone), where streamlines are not closed. Within the surf zone, where streamlines are closed and meridional particle displacements are large, the agreement between the vertical components of the two velocity fields is still remarkably good, especially wherever particle paths are coherent so that diabatic dispersion is minimized. However, in this region the meridional mean Lagrangian velocity bears little relation to the meridional TEM velocity, and reflects more the kinematics of mixing within and across the edges of the surf zone. The results from the mechanistic model are compared with those from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model to test the robustness of the conclusions.

History teachers’ thinking about the nature of their subject

This paper addresses how secondary history teachers view the nature and purposes of their subject and how they think these views impact on their practice. Data were collected through individual qualitative interviews with eleven UK history teachers at the start of their careers. Their views on the nature of history are broadly empiricist with postmodern perspectives having been less influential. Their rationales for the subject emphasise broader educational purposes. The case for further emphasis on subject understandings in teacher education is made through a consideration of the implications of a lack of emphasis of more postmodern perspectives on classroom practice.

Retrieval of sea surface temperature from space based on modeling of infrared radiative transfer: capabilities and limitations

The retrieval (estimation) of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from space-based infrared observations is increasingly performed using retrieval coefficients derived from radiative transfer simulations of top-of-atmosphere brightness temperatures (BTs). Typically, an estimate of SST is formed from a weighted combination of BTs at a few wavelengths, plus an offset. This paper addresses two questions about the radiative transfer modeling approach to deriving these weighting and offset coefficients. How precisely specified do the coefficients need to be in order to obtain the required SST accuracy (e.g., scatter <0.3 K in week-average SST, bias <0.1 K)? And how precisely is it actually possible to specify them using current forward models? The conclusions are that weighting coefficients can be obtained with adequate precision, while the offset coefficient will often require an empirical adjustment of the order of a few tenths of a kelvin against validation data. Thus, a rational approach to defining retrieval coefficients is one of radiative transfer modeling followed by offset adjustment. The need for this approach is illustrated from experience in defining SST retrieval schemes for operational meteorological satellites. A strategy is described for obtaining the required offset adjustment, and the paper highlights some of the subtler aspects involved with reference to the example of SST retrievals from the imager on the geostationary satellite GOES-8.

Diverging from the dominant discourse- some implications of conflicting subject understandings in the education of teachers

This paper addresses beginning teachers thinking about the nature and purposes of their subject and the impact of this on their practice. Individual qualitative interviews were undertaken with 11 history teachers at the beginning of their teaching careers. Data was analysed using writing as the method of analysis and revealed that teachers whose thinking was at odds with dominant discourses, for example in the form of a national curriculum, encountered difficulties embracing pedagogies and aspects of the curriculum that do not accord with their own deep-seated beliefs, demonstrating a need for the initial training and professional development of teachers to forefront consideration of subject understandings.

Estimating the direct aerosol radiative perturbation: impact of ocean surface representation and aerosol non-sphericity

Atmospheric aerosols are now actively studied, in particular because of their radiative and climate impacts. Estimations of the direct aerosol radiative perturbation, caused by extinction of incident solar radiation, usually rely on radiative transfer codes and involve simplifying hypotheses. This paper addresses two approximations which are widely used for the sake of simplicity and limiting the computational cost of the calculations. Firstly, it is shown that using a Lambertian albedo instead of the more rigorous bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) to model the ocean surface radiative properties leads to large relative errors in the instantaneous aerosol radiative perturbation. When averaging over the day, these errors cancel out to acceptable levels of less than 3% (except in the northern hemisphere winter). The other scope of this study is to address aerosol non-sphericity effects. Comparing an experimental phase function with an equivalent Mie-calculated phase function, we found acceptable relative errors if the aerosol radiative perturbation calculated for a given optical thickness is daily averaged. However, retrieval of the optical thickness of non-spherical aerosols assuming spherical particles can lead to significant errors. This is due to significant differences between the spherical and non-spherical phase functions. Discrepancies in aerosol radiative perturbation between the spherical and non-spherical cases are sometimes reduced and sometimes enhanced if the aerosol optical thickness for the spherical case is adjusted to fit the simulated radiance of the non-spherical case.

Diverging from the dominant discourse – some implications of conflicting subject understandings in the education of teachers

This paper addresses beginning teachers thinking about the nature and purposes of their subject and the impact of this on their practice. Individual qualitative interviews were undertaken with 11 history teachers at the beginning of their teaching careers. Data was analysed using writing as the method of analysis and revealed that teachers whose thinking was at odds with dominant discourses, for example in the form of a national curriculum, encountered difficulties embracing pedagogies and aspects of the curriculum that do not accord with their own deep-seated beliefs, demonstrating a need for the initial training and professional development of teachers to forefront consideration of subject understandings.

Explicit and implicit subject bias in the ABS journal quality guide

This paper addresses issues raised in two recent papers published in this journal about the UK Association of Business Schools' Journal Quality Guide (ABS Guide). While much of the debate about journal rankings in general, and the ABS Guide in particular, has focused on the construction, power and (mis)use of these rankings, this paper differs in that it explains and provides evidence about explicit and implicit biases in the ABS Guide. In so doing, it poses potentially difficult questions that the editors of the ABS Guide need to address and urgently rectify if the ABS Guide seeks to build and retain legitimacy. In particular, the evidence in this paper shows explicit bias in the ABS Guide against several subject areas, including accounting and finance. It also shows implicit bias against accounting and finance when comparing journal rankings in sub-areas shared between accounting and finance and the broader business management subject areas.

Reducing inconsistencies in point observations of maximum flood inundation level

Flood simulation models and hazard maps are only as good as the underlying data against which they are calibrated and tested. However, extreme flood events are by definition rare, so the observational data of flood inundation extent are limited in both quality and quantity. The relative importance of these observational uncertainties has increased now that computing power and accurate lidar scans make it possible to run high-resolution 2D models to simulate floods in urban areas. However, the value of these simulations is limited by the uncertainty in the true extent of the flood. This paper addresses that challenge by analyzing a point dataset of maximum water extent from a flood event on the River Eden at Carlisle, United Kingdom, in January 2005. The observation dataset is based on a collection of wrack and water marks from two postevent surveys. A smoothing algorithm for identifying, quantifying, and reducing localized inconsistencies in the dataset is proposed and evaluated showing positive results. The proposed smoothing algorithm can be applied in order to improve flood inundation modeling assessment and the determination of risk zones on the floodplain.