Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation

The possibilities and need for adaptation and mitigation depends on uncertain future developments with respect to socio-economic factors and the climate system. Scenarios are used to explore the impacts of different strategies under uncertainty. In this chapter, some scenarios are presented that are used in the ADAM project for this purpose. One scenario explores developments with no mitigation, and thus with high temperature increase and high reliance on adaptation (leading to 4oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). A second scenario explores an ambitious mitigation strategy (leading to 2oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). In the latter scenario, stringent mitigation strategies effectively reduces the risks of climate change, but based on uncertainties in the climate system a temperature increase of 3oC or more cannot be excluded. The analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but even then adaptation will be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which adaptation is more cost-effective than mitigation, but mitigation can help reduce damages and the cost of adaptation. For agriculture, finally, only the scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.

Effect of feed restriction and supplemental dietary fat on gut peptide and hypothalamic neuropeptide mRNA concentrations in growing wethers

The objectives of the present study were 1) to evaluate the effects of supplemental fat and ME intake on plasma concentrations of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), cholecystokinin (CCK), glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide, ghrelin, and oxyntomodulin; and 2) to determine the association of these peptides with DMI and the hypothalamic concentration of mRNA for the following neuropeptides: neuropeptide Y (NPY), agouti-related peptide (AgRP), and proopiomelanocortin (POMC). In a completely randomized block design with a 2 x 2 factorial arrangement of treatments, 32 pens with 2 wethers each were restricted-fed (2.45 Mcal/lamb per day) or offered diets ad libitum (n = 16) with or without 6% supplemental fat (n = 16) for a period of 30 d. Dry matter intake was measured daily. On d 8, 15, 22, and 29, BW was measured before feeding, and 6 h after feeding, blood samples were collected for plasma measurement of insulin, GLP-1, CCK, ghrelin, glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide, oxyntomodulin, glucose, and NEFA concentrations. On d 29, blood was collected 30 min before feeding for the same hormone and metabolite analyses. At the end of the experiment, wethers were slaughtered and the hypothalami were collected to measure concentrations of NPY, AgRP, and POMC mRNA. Offering feed ad libitum (resulting in greater ME intake) increased plasma insulin and NEFA concentrations (P = 0.02 and 0.02, respectively) and decreased hypothalamic mRNA expression of NPY and AgRP (P = 0.07 and 0.02, respectively) compared with the restricted-fed wethers. There was a trend for the addition of dietary fat to decrease DMI (P = 0.12). Addition of dietary fat decreased insulin and glucose concentrations (P < 0.05 and 0.01, respectively) and tended to increase hypothalamic mRNA concentrations for NPY and AgRP (P = 0.07 and 0.11, respectively). Plasma GLP-1 and CCK concentrations increased in wethers offered feed ad libitum compared with restricted-fed wethers, but the response was greater when wethers were offered feed ad libitum and had supplemental fat in the diet (fat x intake interaction, P = 0.04). The prefeeding plasma ghrelin concentration was greater in restricted-fed wethers compared with those offered feed ad libitum, but the concentrations were similar 6 h after feeding (intake x time interaction, P < 0.01). Supplemental dietary fat did not affect (P = 0.22) plasma ghrelin concentration. We conclude that insulin, ghrelin, CCK, and GLP-1 may regulate DMI in sheep by regulating the hypothalamic gene expression of NPY, AgRP, and POMC.

IsdA protects Staphylococcus aureus against the bactericidal protease activity of apolactoferrin

An important facet of the Staphylococcus aureus host-pathogen interaction is the ability of the invading bacterium to evade host innate defenses, particularly the cocktail of host antimicrobial peptides. In this work, we showed that IsdA, a surface protein of S. aureus which is required for nasal colonization, binds to lactoferrin, the most abundant antistaphylococcal polypeptide in human nasal secretions. The presence of IsdA on the surface of S. aureus confers resistance to killing by lactoferrin. In addition, the bactericidal activity of lactoferrin was inhibited by addition of phenylmethylsulfonyl fluoride, implicating the serine protease activity of lactoferrin in the killing of S. aureus. Recombinant IsdA was a competitive inhibitor of lactoferrin protease activity. Reciprocally, antibody reactive to IsdA enhanced killing of S. aureus. Thus, IsdA can protect S. aureus against lactoferrin and acts as a protease inhibitor.

Fruit and vegetables, and the role they have played in determining the EU’s aggregate measurement of support

In its periodic declarations of domestic support to the WTO, the EU has progressively reduced its amber-box declarations in line with its changing system of farm support. Surprisingly, however, in 2007/08 it managed to more than halve its amber box compared with that of the previous year, easily achieving the reduction targets being touted in the Doha Round. This was largely due to a change in the calculations for fresh fruits and vegetables. These had been linked to the entry price system, which was not affected by the 2008 fruit and vegetables reform. Why the EU chose to make this change during the ongoing Doha Round negotiations remains unclear.

Determining the contribution of volcanic ash and boundary layer aerosol in backscatter lidar returns: a three‐component atmosphere approach

A solution of the lidar equation is discussed, that permits combining backscatter and depolarization measurements to quantitatively distinguish two different aerosol types with different depolarization properties. The method has been successfully applied to simultaneous observations of volcanic ash and boundary layer aerosol obtained in Exeter, United Kingdom, on 16 and 18 April 2010, permitting the contribution of the two aerosols to be quantified separately. First a subset of the atmospheric profiles is used where the two aerosol types belong to clearly distinguished layers, for the purpose of characterizing the ash in terms of lidar ratio and depolarization. These quantities are then used in a three‐component atmosphere solution scheme of the lidar equation applied to the full data set, in order to compute the optical properties of both aerosol types separately. On 16 April a thin ash layer, 100–400 m deep, is observed (average and maximum estimated ash optical depth: 0.11 and 0.2); it descends from ∼2800 to ∼1400 m altitude over a 6‐hour period. On 18 April a double ash layer, ∼400 m deep, is observed just above the morning boundary layer (average and maximum estimated ash optical depth: 0.19 and 0.27). In the afternoon the ash is entrained into the boundary layer, and the latter reaches a depth of ∼1800 m (average and maximum estimated ash optical depth: 0.1 and 0.15). An additional ash layer, with a very small optical depth, was observed on 18 April at an altitude of 3500–4000 m. By converting the lidar optical measurements using estimates of volcanic ash specific extinction, derived from other works, the observations seem to suggest approximate peak ash concentrations of ∼1500 and ∼1000 mg/m3,respectively, on the two observations dates.

Beyond the technical: a snapshot of energy and buildings research

The past decade has witnessed a sharp increase in published research on energy and buildings. This paper takes stock of work in this area, with a particular focus on construction research and the analysis of non-technical dimensions. While there is widespread recognition as to the importance of non-technical dimensions, research tends to be limited to individualistic studies of occupants and occupant behavior. In contrast, publications in the mainstream social science literature display a broader range of interests, including policy developments, structural constraints on the diffusion and use of new technologies and the construction process itself. The growing interest of more generalist scholars in energy and buildings provides an opportunity for construction research to engage a wider audience. This would enrich the current research agenda, helping to address unanswered problems concerning the relatively weak impact of policy mechanisms and new technologies and the seeming recalcitrance of occupants. It would also help to promote the academic status of construction research as a field. This, in turn, depends on greater engagement with interpretivist types of analysis and theory building, thereby challenging deeply ingrained views on the nature and role of academic research in construction.

A green profession? A global survey of RICS members and their engagement with the sustainability agenda

Purpose – This study seeks to provide a review of the background and context to the engagement of RICS members with the sustainability agenda, and to examine the extent to which the surveying profession uses relevant information, tools and techniques to achieve the key objectives of sustainable development (or sustainability). Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyses results from a major international online survey of 4,600 RICS respondent members, supported by 31 structured telephone interviews. Findings – The results suggest that, although sustainability is highly relevant to RICS members’ work, a lack of knowledge and expertise is making it more difficult for sustainability tools and other information to be used effectively. Research limitations/implications – The survey is based on a substantial number of responses which are broadly representative of the global RICS population. A key implication is that “laggard” faculties include the disciplines of commercial property and valuation. Practical implications – The research suggests that key stakeholders must work together to provide better information, guidance and education and training to “hardwire” the sustainability agenda across RICS faculties. Originality/value – This is the first truly global survey of its kind and focuses particularly on those faculties that play a major role in property investment and finance (i.e. valuation and commercial property), comparing their position with that of other faculties in an international context.

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.

Comparison of in vivo and in vitro digestion on polyphenol composition in lingonberries: potential impact on colonic health

The composition of polyphenols in ileal fluid samples obtained from an ileostomy subject after lingonberry intake was compared with lingonberry extracts obtained after simulated in vitro digestion (IVDL) and subsequent faecal fermentation (IVFL). HPLC-PDA-MS/MS analysis confirmed similar patterns of lingonberry (poly)phenolic metabolism after the in vivo and in vitro digestion, with reduced recovery of anthocyanins and a similar pattern of recovery for proanthocyanidins observed for both methods of digestion. On the other hand, the IVFL sample contained none of the original (poly)phenolic components but was enriched in simple aromatic components. Digested and fermented extracts exhibited significant (P < 0.05) anti-genotoxic (Comet assay), anti-mutagenic (Mutation Frequency assay), and anti-invasive (Matrigel Invasion assay) effects in human cell culture models of colorectal cancer at physiologically-relevant doses (0-50 μg/mL gallic acid equivalents). The ileal fluid induced significant anti-genotoxic activity (P < 0.05), but at a higher concentration (200 μg/mL gallic acid equivalents) than the IVDL. Despite extensive structural modification following digestion and fermentation, lingonberry extracts retained their bioactivity in vitro. This reinforces the need for studies to consider the impact of digestion when investigating bioactivity of dietary phytochemicals.

EISCAT observations of ion composition and temperature anisotropy in the high-latitude F-region

The papers by Winser et al. [(1990) J. atmos. terr. Phys.52, 501] and Häggström and Collis [(1990) J. atmos. terr. Phys.52, 519] used plasma flows and ion temperatures, as measured by the EISCAT tristatic incoherent scatter radar, to investigate changes in the ion composition of the ionospheric F-layer at high latitudes, in response to increases in the speed of plasma convection. These studies reported that the ion composition rapidly changed from mainly O+ to almost completely (>90%) molecular ions, following rapid increases in ion drift speed by >1 km s−1. These changes appeared inconsisent with theoretical considerations of the ion chemistry, which could not account for the large fractions of molecular ions inferred from the obsevations. In this paper, we discuss two causes of this discrepancy. First, we reevaluate the theoretical calculations for chemical equilibrium and show that, if we correct the derived temperatures for the effect of the molecular ions, and if we employ more realistic dependences of the reaction rates on the ion temperature, the composition changes derived for the faster convection speeds can be explained. For the Winser et al. observations with the radar beam at an aspect angle of ϕ = 54.7° to the geomagnetic field, we now compute a change to 89% molecular ions in < 2 min, in response to the 3 km s−1 drift. This is broadly consistent with the observations. But for the two cases considered by Häggström and Collis, looking along the field line (ϕ = 0°), we compute the proportion of molecular ions to be only 4 and 16% for the observed plasma drifts of 1.2 and 1.6 km s−1, respectively. These computed proportions are much smaller than those derived experimentally (70 and 90%). We attribute the differences to the effects of non-Maxwellian, anisotropic ion velocity distribution functions. We also discuss the effect of ion composition changes on the various radar observations that report anisotropies of ion temperature.

Spatial variability of liquid cloud and rain: observations and microphysical effects

Spatial variability of liquid cloud water content and rainwater content is analysed from three different observational platforms: in situ measurements from research aircraft, land-based remote sensing techniques using radar and lidar, and spaceborne remote sensing from CloudSat. The variance is found to increase with spatial scale, but also depends strongly on the cloud or rain fraction regime, with overcast regions containing less variability than broken cloud fields. This variability is shown to lead to large biases, up to a factor of 4, in both the autoconversion and accretion rates estimated at a model grid scale of ≈40 km by a typical microphysical parametrization using in-cloud mean values. A parametrization for the subgrid variability of liquid cloud and rainwater content is developed, based on the observations, which varies with both the grid scale and cloud or rain fraction, and is applicable for all model grid scales. It is then shown that if this parametrization of the variability is analytically incorporated into the autoconversion and accretion rate calculations, the bias is significantly reduced.

Effects of forage source and extruded linseed supplementation on methane emissions from growing dairy cattle of differing body weights

Changes in diet carbohydrate amount and type (i.e., starch vs. fiber) and dietary oil supplements can affect ruminant methane emissions. Our objectives were to measure methane emissions, whole-tract digestibility, and energy and nitrogen utilization from growing dairy cattle at 2 body weight (BW) ranges, fed diets containing either high maize silage (MS) or high grass silage (GS), without or with supplemental oil from extruded linseed (ELS). Four Holstein-Friesian heifers aged 13 mo (BW range from start to finish of 382 to 526 kg) were used in experiment 1, whereas 4 lighter heifers aged 12 mo (BW range from start to finish of 292 to 419 kg) were used in experiment 2. Diets were fed as total mixed rations with forage dry matter (DM) containing high MS or high GS and concentrates in proportions (forage:concentrate, DM basis) of either 75:25 (experiment 1) or 60:40 (experiment 2), respectively. Diets were supplemented without or with ELS (Lintec[AU1: Add manufacturer name and location.]; 260 g of oil/ kg of DM) at 6% of ration DM. Each experiment was a 4 × 4 Latin square design with 33-d periods, with measurements during d 29 to 33 while animals were housed in respiration chambers. Heifers fed MS at a heavier BW (experiment 1) emitted 20% less methane per unit of DM intake (yield) compared with GS (21.4 vs. 26.6, respectively). However, when repeated with heifers of a lower BW (experiment 2), methane yield did not differ between the 2 diets (26.6 g/kg of DM intake). Differences in heifer BW had no overall effect on methane emissions, except when expressed as grams per kilogram of digestible organic matter (OMD) intake (32.4 vs. 36.6, heavy vs. light heifers). Heavier heifers fed MS in experiment 1 had a greater DM intake (9.4 kg/d) and lower OMD (755 g/kg), but no difference in N utilization (31% of N intake) compared with heifers fed GS (7.9 kg/d and 799 g/kg, respectively). Tissue energy retention was nearly double for heifers fed MS compared with GS in experiment 1 (15 vs. 8% of energy intake, respectively). Heifers fed MS in experiment 2 had similar DM intake (7.2 kg/d) and retention of energy (5% of intake energy) and N (28% of N intake), compared with GS-fed heifers, but OMD was lower (741 vs. 765 g/kg, respectively). No effect of ELS was noted on any of the variables measured, irrespective of animal BW, and this was likely due to the relatively low amount of supplemental oil provided. Differences in heifer BW did not markedly influence dietary effects on methane emissions. Differences in methane yield were attributable to differences in dietary starch and fiber composition associated with forage type and source.

Breaking the double-edged sword of effort/trying hard: developmental equilibrium and Longitudinal relations among effort, achievement, and academic self-concept

Ever since the classic research of Nicholls (1976) and others, effort has been recognized as a double-edged sword: whilst it might enhance achievement, it undermines academic self-concept (ASC). However, there has not been a thorough evaluation of the longitudinal reciprocal effects of effort, ASC and achievement,in the context of modern self-concept theory and statistical methodology. Nor have there been developmental equilibrium tests of whether these effects are consistent across the potentially volatile early-to-middle adolescence. Hence, focusing on mathematics, we evaluate reciprocal effects models over the first four years of secondary school, relating effort, achievement (test scores and school grades), ASC, and ASCxEffort interactions for a representative sample of 3,421 German students (Mn age = 11.75 years at Wave 1). ASC, effort and achievement were positively correlated at each wave, and there was a clear pattern of positive reciprocal positive effects among ASC, test scores and school grades—each contributing to the other, after controlling for the prior effects of all others. There was an asymmetrical pattern of effects for effort that is consistent with the double-edged sword premise: prior school grades had positive effects on subsequent effort, but prior effort had non-significant or negative effects on subsequent grades and ASC. However, on the basis of a synergistic application of new theory and methodology, we predicted and found a significant ASC-by-effort interaction, such that prior effort had more positive effects on subsequent ASC and school grades when prior ASC was high—thus providing a key to breaking the double-edged sword.

Composition, color, and texture of Thai indigenous and broiler chicken muscles

Chemical compositions and physical properties of mixed-sex Thai indigenous (Gallus domesticus) and broiler (commercial breed, CP707) chicken biceps femoris and pectoralis muscles were determined. Indigenous chicken muscles contained higher protein contents but lower fat and ash contents compared to broiler muscles (P < 0.001). The amino acid profile of the indigenous chicken muscles was similar to that of the broiler muscles except they were slightly richer in glutamic acid (P < 0.05). The indigenous chicken muscles contained more saturated and less polyunsaturated fatty acids than the broiler muscles. There were no differences in the monounsaturated fatty acid contents between the breeds. The total collagen contents of indigenous pectoralis and biceps femoris muscles were 5.09 and 12.85 mg/g, respectively, which were higher than those found in broiler pectoralis (3.86 mg/g) and biceps femoris muscles (8.70 mg/g) (P < 0.001). Soluble collagen contents were lower for indigenous pectoralis and biceps femoris muscles, 22.16 vs. 31.38% and 26.06 vs. 33.87%, respectively. The CIE system values of lightness (L*), redness (a*), and yellowness (b*) of indigenous chicken muscles were higher than those of broiler muscles. The shear values of indigenous chicken muscles either raw or cooked were higher than those of broiler muscles (P < 0.05). After cooking, the shear values decreased for broiler biceps femoris and pectoralis muscles (P < 0.05), whereas no change was observed for indigenous chicken biceps femoris muscle (P > 0.05). Shear values increased for indigenous chicken pectoralis muscle (P < 0.05).