A moving-mesh finite element method and its application to the numerical solution of phase-change problems

A distributed Lagrangian moving-mesh finite element method is applied to problems involving changes of phase. The algorithm uses a distributed conservation principle to determine nodal mesh velocities, which are then used to move the nodes. The nodal values are obtained from an ALE (Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian) equation, which represents a generalization of the original algorithm presented in Applied Numerical Mathematics, 54:450--469 (2005). Having described the details of the generalized algorithm it is validated on two test cases from the original paper and is then applied to one-phase and, for the first time, two-phase Stefan problems in one and two space dimensions, paying particular attention to the implementation of the interface boundary conditions. Results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and the effectiveness of the method, including comparisons against analytical solutions where available.

The economic consequences of mortgage debt

Unsurprisingly, a great deal of attention has been paid to the economic consequences of the credit crunch. However, this paper shows that the credit crunch was preceded by a strong build-up of mortgage debt internationally, which, in the long run, could turn out to be more significant than the credit crunch itself. Indeed, the debt build-up suggests that the credit crunch is more likely to reoccur, because highly-indebted households have weaker buffers to withstand unexpected shocks to their incomes or to interest rates. The paper presents a model that can explain the debt build-up and changes to the distribution of debt between existing owners and first-time buyers, which hinders access to home-ownership for the latter, even amongst those households who would be considered as credit-worthy.

The distributional consequences of a fiscal food policy: evidence from the UK

The literature on fiscal food policies focuses on their effectiveness in altering diets and improving health, while this paper focuses on their welfare costs. A formal welfare economics framework is developed to calculate the combined individualistic and distributional impacts of a tax-subsidy. Distributional characteristics of foods targeted by a tax tend to be concentrated in lower-income households. Further, consumption of fruit and vegetables tends to be concentrated in higher-income households; therefore, a subsidy on such foods increases regressivity. Aggregate welfare changes that result from a fiscal food policy are found to range from an increase of 1.41 per cent to a reduction of 2.06 per cent according to whether a subsidy is included, the degree of inequality aversion, and whether substitution among foods is allowed.

Power, nature and neoliberalism: the political ecology of water in Chile

Since the 1990s, international water sector reforms have centred heavily on economic and market approaches. In regard to water resources management, tradable water rights have been promoted, often supported by the neoliberal model adopted in Chile. Chile's 1981 Water Code was reformed to comprise a system of water rights that could be freely traded with few restrictions. International financial institutions have embraced the Chilean model, claiming that it results in more efficient water use, and potentially fosters social and environmental benefits. However, in Chile the Water Code is deeply contested. It has been criticised for being too permissive and has produced a number of problems in practice. Moreover, attempts to modify it have become the focus of a lengthy polemic debate. This paper employs a political ecology perspective to explore the socio-environmental outcomes of water management in Chile, drawing on a case study of agriculture in the semi-arid Norte Chico. The case illustrates how large-scale farmers exert greater control over water, while peasant farmers have increasingly less access. I argue that these outcomes are facilitated by the mode of water management implemented within the framework of the Water Code. Through this preliminary examination of social equity and the environmental aspects of water resources management in Chile, I suggest that the omission of these issues from the international debates on water rights markets is a cause for concern.

A generic model of Exergy Assessment of the Environmental Impact for the Building Lifecycle

A generic model of Exergy Assessment is proposed for the Environmental Impact of the Building Lifecycle, with a special focus on the natural environment. Three environmental impacts: energy consumption, resource consumption and pollutant discharge have been analyzed with reference to energy-embodied exergy, resource chemical exergy and abatement exergy, respectively. The generic model of Exergy Assessment of the Environmental Impact of the Building Lifecycle thus formulated contains two sub-models, one from the aspect of building energy utilization and the other from building materials use. Combined with theories by ecologists such as Odum, the paper evaluates a building's environmental sustainability through its exergy footprint and environmental impacts. A case study from Chongqing, China illustrates the application of this method. From the case study, it was found that energy consumption constitutes 70–80% of the total environmental impact during a 50-year building lifecycle, in which the operation phase accounts for 80% of the total environmental impact, the building material production phase 15% and 5% for the other phases.

The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources

This paper assesses the implications of climate policy for exposure to water resources stresses. It compares a Reference scenario which leads to an increase in global mean temperature of 4oC by the end of the 21st century with a Mitigation scenario which stabilises greenhouse gas concentrations at around 450ppm CO2e and leads to a 2oC increase in 2100. Associated changes in river runoff are simulated using a global hydrological model, for four spatial patterns of change in temperature and rainfall. There is a considerable difference in hydrological change between these four patterns, but the percentages of change avoided at the global scale are relatively robust. By the 2050s, the Mitigation scenario typically avoids between 16 and 30% of the change in runoff under the Reference scenario, and by 2100 it avoids between 43 and 65%. Two different measures of exposure to water resources stress are calculated, based on resources per capita and the ratio of withdrawals to resources. Using the first measure, the Mitigation scenario avoids 8-17% of the impact in 2050 and 20-31% in 2100; with the second measure, the avoided impacts are 5-21% and 15-47% respectively. However, at the same time, the Mitigation scenario also reduces the positive impacts of climate change on water scarcity in other areas. The absolute numbers and locations of people affected by climate change and climate policy vary considerably between the four climate model patterns.

Exploiting a hybrid environmental design strategy in the continental climate of Beijing

The built environment in China is required to achieve a 50% reduction in carbon emissions by 2020 against the 1980 design standard. A particular challenge is how to maintain acceptable comfort conditions through the hot humid summers and cold desiccating winters of its continental climate regions. Fully air-conditioned sealed envelopes, often fully glazed, are becoming increasingly common in these regions. Remedial strategies involve technical refinements to the air-handling equipment and a contribution from renewable energy sources in an attempt to achieve the prescribed net reduction in energy use. However an alternative hybrid environmental design strategy is developed in this research project. It exploits observed temperate periods of weeks, days, even hours in duration to free-run an office and exhibition building configured to promote natural stack ventilation when ambient conditions permit and mechanical ventilation when conditions require it, the two modes delivered through the same physical infrastructure. The proposal is modelled in proprietary software and the methodology adopted is described. The challenge is compounded by its first practical application to an existing reinforced concrete frame originally designed to receive a highly glazed envelope. This original scheme is reviewed in comparison. Furthermore the practical delivery of the proposal value engineered out a proportion of the ventilation stacks. The likely consequence of this for the environmental performance of the building is investigated through a sensitivity study.

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth’s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community

The fall speeds of sub-100 mu m ice crystals

Estimates for the sedimentation rate of realistic ice crystals at sizes smaller than 100 µm are presented. These calculations, which exploit new results for the capacitance of ice crystals, are compared with laboratory studies and found to be in good agreement. The results highlight a weakness in contemporary ice particle fall speed parametrizations for very small crystals, which can lead to sedimentation rates being overestimated by a factor of two. The theoretical approach applied here may also be useful for calculating the sedimentation rate and mobility of non-spherical aerosol particles.

Vascular plant diversity and climate change in the alpine zone of the Lefka Ori, Crete

The aim of this study is to analyse the vascular flora and the local climate along an altitudinal gradient in the Lefka Ori massif Crete and to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the plant diversity of the sub-alpine and alpine zones. It provides a quantitative/qualitative analysis of vegetation-environment relationships for four summits along an altitude gradient on the Lefka Ori massif Crete (1664-2339 m). The GLORIA multi-summit approach was used to provide vegetation and floristic data together with temperature records for every summit. Species richness and species turnover was calculated together with floristic similarity between the summits. 70 species were recorded, 20 of which were endemic, belonging to 23 different families. Cretan endemics dominate at these high altitudes. Species richness and turnover decreased with altitude. The two highest summits showed greater floristic similarity. Only 20% of the total flora recorded reaches the highest summit while 10% is common among summits. Overall there was a 4.96 degrees C decrease in temperature along the 675 m gradient. Given a scenario of temperature increase the ecotone between the sub-alpine and alpine zone would be likely to have the greatest species turnover. Southern exposures are likely to be invaded first by thermophilous species while northern exposures are likely to be more resistant to changes. Species distribution shifts will also depend on habitat availability. Many, already threatened, local endemic species will be affected first.