Active-control trials with binary data: a comparison of methods for testing superiority or non-inferiority using the odds ratio

This paper considers methods for testing for superiority or non-inferiority in active-control trials with binary data, when the relative treatment effect is expressed as an odds ratio. Three asymptotic tests for the log-odds ratio based on the unconditional binary likelihood are presented, namely the likelihood ratio, Wald and score tests. All three tests can be implemented straightforwardly in standard statistical software packages, as can the corresponding confidence intervals. Simulations indicate that the three alternatives are similar in terms of the Type I error, with values close to the nominal level. However, when the non-inferiority margin becomes large, the score test slightly exceeds the nominal level. In general, the highest power is obtained from the score test, although all three tests are similar and the observed differences in power are not of practical importance. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A comparison of the active surveillance of scrapie in the European Union

The abattoir and the fallen stock surveys constitute the active surveillance component aimed at improving the detection of scrapie across the European Union. Previous studies have suggested the occurrence of significant differences in the operation of the surveys across the EU. In the present study we assessed the standardisation of the surveys throughout time across the EU and identified clusters of countries with similar underlying characteristics allowing comparisons between them. In the absence of sufficient covariate information to explain the observed variability across countries, we modelled the unobserved heterogeneity by means of non-parametric distributions on the risk ratios of the fallen stock over the abattoir survey. More specifically, we used the profile likelihood method on 2003, 2004 and 2005 active surveillance data for 18 European countries on classical scrapie, and on 2004 and 2005 data for atypical scrapie separately. We extended our analyses to include the limited covariate information available, more specifically, the proportion of the adult sheep population sampled by the fallen stock survey every year. Our results show that the between-country heterogeneity dropped in 2004 and 2005 relative to that of 2003 for classical scrapie. As a consequence, the number of clusters in the last two years was also reduced indicating the gradual standardisation of the surveillance efforts across the EU. The crude analyses of the atypical data grouped all the countries in one cluster and showed non-significant gain in the detection of this type of scrapie by any of the two sources. The proportion of the population sampled by the fallen stock appeared significantly associated with our risk ratio for both types of scrapie, although in opposite directions: negative for classical and positive for atypical. The initial justification for the fallen stock, targeting a high-risk population to increase the likelihood of case finding, appears compromised for both types of scrapie in some countries.

Non-genomic signalling of the retinoic X receptor through inhibition of Gq signalling in human platelets

Retinoid X receptors (RXRs) are important transcriptional nuclear hormone receptors, acting as either homodimers or the binding partner for at least one fourth of all the known human nuclear receptors. Functional nongenomic effects of nuclear receptors are poorly understood; however, recently peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) gamma, PPARbeta, and the glucocorticoid receptor have all been found active in human platelets. Human platelets express RXRalpha and RXRbeta. RXR ligands inhibit platelet aggregation and TXA(2) release to ADP and the TXA(2) receptors, but only weakly to collagen. ADP and TXA(2) both signal via the G protein, Gq. RXR rapidly binds Gq but not Gi/z/o/t/gust in a ligand-dependent manner and inhibits Gq-induced Rac activation and intracellular calcium release. We propose that RXR ligands may have beneficial clinical actions through inhibition of platelet activation. Furthermore, our results demonstrate a novel nongenomic mode for nuclear receptor action and a functional cross-talk between G-protein and nuclear receptor signaling families.

The rodent species of the Ifugao Rice Terraces, Philippines - Target or non-target species for management?

We investigated the species diversity and habitat use of rodents in the Ifugao Rice Terraces (IRT), Luzon, Philippines, as a first step in their assessment either as pest species of rice or as potential non-target species of rodent control practice. Trapping was carried out in caneland and forest habitats adjacent to rice cropland using trap lines of 10 - 15 cage-traps. Four trapping rounds, each consisting of 5 nights trapping, were replicated at two sites during the months of May and June. A diverse rodent fauna was recorded, including the non-native pest species, Rattus tanezumi, and the native species, Rattus everetti and Chrotomys mindorensis. Results from trapping and spool-and-line tracking suggested that these native species do not contribute to rice damage and that several may actually be beneficial in the ricefield ecosystem as vermivores that feed on invertebrate pests. Control should therefore be directed at the pest species, R. tanezumi, minimising non-target effects on the non-pest rodent species.

Declining survival rates in a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel: evidence for non-linear density dependence and environmental stochasticity

1. We studied a reintroduced population of the formerly critically endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus Temmink from its inception in 1987 until 2002, by which time the population had attained carrying capacity for the study area. Post-1994 the population received minimal management other than the provision of nestboxes. 2. We analysed data collected on survival (1987-2002) using program MARK to explore the influence of density-dependent and independent processes on survival over the course of the population's development. 3.We found evidence for non-linear, threshold density dependence in juvenile survival rates. Juvenile survival was also strongly influenced by climate, with the temporal distribution of rainfall during the cyclone season being the most influential climatic variable. Adult survival remained constant throughout. 4. Our most parsimonious capture-mark-recapture statistical model, which was constrained by density and climate, explained 75.4% of the temporal variation exhibited in juvenile survival rates over the course of the population's development. 5. This study is an example of how data collected as part of a threatened species recovery programme can be used to explore the role and functional form of natural population regulatory processes. With the improvements in conservation management techniques and the resulting success stories, formerly threatened species offer unique opportunities to further our understanding of the fundamental principles of population ecology.

Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio relating initial cost, maintenance and staffing costs of office buildings

In an attempt to focus clients' minds on the importance of considering the construction and maintenance costs of a commercial office building (both as a factor in staff productivity and as a fraction of lifetime staff costs) there is an often-quoted ratio of costs of 1:5:200, where for every one pound spent on construction cost, five are spent on maintenance and building operating costs and 200 on staffing and business operating costs. This seems to stem from a paper published by the Royal Academy of Engineering, in which no data is given and no derivation or defence of the ratio appears. The accompanying belief that higher quality design and construction increases staff productivity, and simultaneously reduces maintenance costs, how ever laudable, appears unsupported by research, and carries all the hallmarks of an "urban myth". In tracking down data about real buildings, a more realistic ratio appears to depend on a huge variety of variables, as well as the definition of the number of "lifetime" years. The ill-defined origins of the original ratio (1:5:200) describing these variables have made replication impossible. However, by using published sources of data, we have found that for three office buildings, a more realistic ratio is 1:0.4:12. As there is nothing in the public domain about what comprised the original research that gave rise to 1:5:200, it is not possible to make a true comparison between these new calculations and the originals. Clients and construction professionals stand to be misled because the popularity and widespread use of the wrong ratio appears to be mis-informing important investment and policy decisions.

The effects of the informal sector on construction

Most construction sectors around the world have a high percentage of output being produced informally. In developing countries informal construction activities can account for as much as 80% of employment (Farrell 2004). In general, the informal sector equates to a significant percentage of country’s GDP — 40% in developing countries and 18% in the OECD high-income countries. The informal sector in construction is not well understood and difficult to measure and is thriving both in the developed and developing world. Construction industries are made up of a large number of small firms and a small number of large firms. Many small firms are less likely to be able (or to want to) afford the bureaucratic demands of a nation’s fiscal and legal system. This evasion means a reduction in tax income for the government, and also leads to inaccurate estimates of the true value of construction output. Some national statistical agencies factor in an estimate of the size of the informal sector, but without effective measurement, there is no guarantee that the estimate is a fair one. The message from the paper is that the informal sector in construction is likely to grow. We need to understand the sector and recognise its impact on construction.

Modulation of the human gut microflora towards improved health using prebiotics: assessment of efficacy

There is increasing awareness that the human gut microflora plays a critical role in maintaining host health, both within the gastrointestinal tract and, through the absorption of metabolites, systemically. An 'optimal' gut microflora establishes an efficient barrier to the invasion and colonisation of the gut by pathogenic bacteria, produces a range of metabolic substrates which in turn are utilized by the host (e.g. vitamins and short chain fatty acids) and stimulates the immune system in a non-inflammatory manner. Although little is known about the individual species of bacteria responsible for these beneficial activities, it is generally accepted that the bifidobacteria and lactobacilli constitute important components of the beneficial gut microflora. A number of diet-based microflora management tools have been developed and refined over recent decades including probiotic, prebiotic and synbiotic approaches. Each aims to stimulate numbers and/or activities of the bifidobacteria and lactobacilli within the gut microflora. The aim of this article is to examine how prebiotics are being applied to the improvement of human health and to review the scientific evidence supporting their use.

Expressing medicine side effects: assessing the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm, and the provision of baseline risk information

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm formats for medicine side effects, with and without the provision of baseline risk information. Methods: A two factor, risk increase format (relative, absolute and NNH) x baseline (present/absent) between participants design was used. A sample of 268 women was given a scenario about increase in side effect risk with third generation oral contraceptives, and were required to answer written questions to assess their understanding, satisfaction, and likelihood of continuing to take the drug. Results: Provision of baseline information significantly improved risk estimates and increased satisfaction, although the estimates were still considerably higher than the actual risk. No differences between presentation formats were observed when baseline information was presented. Without baseline information, absolute risk led to the most accurate performance. Conclusion: The findings support the importance of informing people about baseline level of risk when describing risk increases. In contrast, they offer no support for using number needed to harm. Practice implications: Health professionals should provide baseline risk information when presenting information about risk increases or decreases. More research is needed before numbers needed to harm (or treat) should be given to members of the general populations. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parallel Monte Carlo approach for integration of the rendering equation

This paper is addressed to the numerical solving of the rendering equation in realistic image creation. The rendering equation is integral equation describing the light propagation in a scene accordingly to a given illumination model. The used illumination model determines the kernel of the equation under consideration. Nowadays, widely used are the Monte Carlo methods for solving the rendering equation in order to create photorealistic images. In this work we consider the Monte Carlo solving of the rendering equation in the context of the parallel sampling scheme for hemisphere. Our aim is to apply this sampling scheme to stratified Monte Carlo integration method for parallel solving of the rendering equation. The domain for integration of the rendering equation is a hemisphere. We divide the hemispherical domain into a number of equal sub-domains of orthogonal spherical triangles. This domain partitioning allows to solve the rendering equation in parallel. It is known that the Neumann series represent the solution of the integral equation as a infinity sum of integrals. We approximate this sum with a desired truncation error (systematic error) receiving the fixed number of iteration. Then the rendering equation is solved iteratively using Monte Carlo approach. At each iteration we solve multi-dimensional integrals using uniform hemisphere partitioning scheme. An estimate of the rate of convergence is obtained using the stratified Monte Carlo method. This domain partitioning allows easy parallel realization and leads to convergence improvement of the Monte Carlo method. The high performance and Grid computing of the corresponding Monte Carlo scheme are discussed.

The eMinerals project: developing the concept of the virtual organisation to support collaborative work on molecular-scale environmental simulations

The eMinerals project has established an integrated compute and data minigrid infrastructure together with a set of collaborative tools,. The infrastructure is designed to support molecular simulation scientists working together as a virtual organisation aiming to understand a number of strategic processes in environmental science. The eMinerals virtual organisation is now working towards applying this infrastructure to tackle a new generation of scientific problems. This paper describes the achievements of the eMinerals virtual organisation to date, and describes ongoing applications of the virtual organisation infrastructure.

Analysis of the dominant enterprise information assurance mechanisms

The purpose of this study is to analyse current data continuity mechanisms employed by the target group of businesses and to identify any inadequacies in the mechanisms as a whole. The questionnaire responses indicate that 47% of respondents do perceive backup methodologies as important, with a total of 70% of respondents having some backup methodology already in place. Businesses in Moulton Park perceive the loss of data to have a significant effect upon their business’ ability to function. Only 14% of respondents indicated that loss of data on computer systems would not affect their business at all, with 54% of respondents indicating that there would be either a “major effect” (or greater) on their ability to operate. Respondents that have experienced data loss were more likely to have backup methodologies in place (53%) than respondents that had not experienced data loss (18%). Although the number of respondents clearly affected the quality and conclusiveness of the results returned, the level of backup methodologies in place appears to be proportional to the company size. Further investigation is recommended into the subject in order to validate the information gleaned from the small number of respondents.

Assessing the date of the global oil peak: the need to use 2P reserves

Combining geological knowledge with proved plus probable ('2P') oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource-limited peak of conventional oil production. The data show that the global peak of conventional oil production is close. Many analysts who rely only on proved ('1P') oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion. But proved oil reserves contain no information about the true size of discoveries, being variously under-reported, over-reported and not reported. Reliance on 1P data has led to a number of misconceptions, including the notion that past oil forecasts were incorrect, that oil reserves grow very significantly due to technology gain, and that the global supply of oil is ensured provided sufficient investment is forthcoming to 'turn resources into reserves'. These misconceptions have been widely held, including within academia, governments, some oil companies, and organisations such as the IEA. In addition to conventional oil, the world contains large quantities of non-conventional oil. Most current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the non-conventional oils are unlikely to come on-stream fast enough to offset conventional's decline. To determine the extent of future oil supply constraints calculations are required to determine fundamental rate limits for the production of non-conventional oils, as well as oil from gas, coal and biomass, and of oil substitution. Such assessments will need to examine technological readiness and lead-times, as well as rate constraints on investment, pollution, and net-energy return. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A preliminary comparative analysis of the H. sapiens saliva proteome between cysteine fractionation,performic acid oxidation LC/MALDI/MS/MS and LC/ESI/MS/MS

We present a comparative study between LC/MALDI/MS/MS and LC/ESI/MS/MS. Diagnostic biomarkers in saliva have been identified for monitoring caries, periodontitis, oral cancer, salivary gland diseases, and systemic disorders e.g. hepatitis and HIV[1]. Saliva is similar to serum in that there are a small number of highly abundant proteins and many low abundance proteins. There are 35 previously identified salivary proteins [1-4]. We prepared a representative sample of cysteine containing peptides and oxidised them to improve their fragmentation under MALDI conditions. In total 20 proteins were identified with 6 been identified by both methods. Surprisingly there was little overlap in the peptides used to identify the proteins between the two methods