Qualitative modelling of sustainable energy scenarios: An application and extension of the Bon Qualitative Input-Output model

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing economic systems at the start of the 21st century. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require both restructuring the energy supply system (production) and addressing the efficiency and sufficiency of the social uses of energy (consumption). The energy production system is a complicated supply network of interlinked sectors with 'knock-on' effects throughout the economy. End use energy consumption is governed by complex sets of interdependent cultural, social, psychological and economic variables driven by shifts in consumer preference and technological development trajectories. To date, few models have been developed for exploring alternative joint energy production-consumption systems. The aim of this work is to propose one such model. This is achieved in a methodologically coherent manner through integration of qualitative input-output models of production, with Bayesian belief network models of consumption, at point of final demand. The resulting integrated framework can be applied either (relatively) quickly and qualitatively to explore alternative energy scenarios, or as a fully developed quantitative model to derive or assess specific energy policy options. The qualitative applications are explored here.

Overview of an innovative EU-China collaboration in education and research in sustainable built environment

This paper introduces an international collaboration of EU and Asia in education, training and research in the field of sustainable built environment, which attempts to develop a network of practical and intellectual knowledge and training exchange between Chinese and European Universities in the field of sustainable building design and construction. The projects funded by the European Commission Asia Link program, UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office, British Council and the UK Engineering Physical Sciences Council (EPSRC) have been introduced. The projects have significant impacts on promoting sustainable development in built environment in China. The aim of this paper is to share the experiences with those who are interested and searching the ways to collaborate with China in education and research.

Metabolism of Maillard reaction products by the human gut microbiota: implications for health

The human colonic microbiota imparts metabolic versatility on the colon, interacts at many levels in healthy intestinal and systemic metabolism, and plays protective roles in chronic disease and acute infection. Colonic bacterial metabolism is largely dependant on dietary residues from the upper gut. Carbohydrates, resistant to digestion, drive colonic bacterial fermentation and the resulting end products are considered beneficial. Many colonic species ferment proteins but the end products are not always beneficial and include toxic compounds, such as amines and phenols. Most components of a typical Western diet are heat processed. The Maillard reaction, involving food protein and sugar, is a complex network of reactions occurring during thermal processing. The resultant modified protein resists digestion in the small intestine but is available for colonic bacterial fermentation. Little is known about the fate of the modified protein but some Maillard reaction products (MRP) are biologically active by, e.g. altering bacterial population levels within the colon or, upon absorption, interacting with human disease mechanisms by induction of inflammatory responses. This review presents current understanding of the interactions between MRP and intestinal bacteria. Recent scientific advances offering the possibility of elucidating the consequences of microbe-MRP interactions within the gut are discussed.

Peroxyl radical-scavenging activity of coffee brews

The ORAC(FL) assay was used in non-automated mode to evaluate the specific peroxyl radical scavenging properties of the aqueous soluble components of green and roasted Arabica and Robusta coffee samples. A relationship between ORAC(FL) and the concentration of CQAs (caffeoyl quinic acids) was found for the extracts from green coffee beans. Aqueous extracts from roasted coffee beans possessed equal or stronger scavenging power than that obtained for the green coffee beans extracts and the scavenging activity depended on the variety of coffee and the roasting conditions. Brews from Robusta coffee beans showed the highest ORAC(FL). The best scavenging properties for the brews from Arabica coffee beans were detected in samples prepared from coffee beans roasted under light conditions. The data indicate that, during roasting, a complex network of reactions takes place leading to the formation of a wide number of compounds possessing specific scavenging properties. Under mild roasting conditions, caffeoyl quinic acids appear to be the main components responsible for the free radical scavenging power of coffee brews. In contrast, Maillard reaction products may be the principal components with free radical scavenging activity in more severely (medium and dark) roasted coffees.

pH-mediated interactions between poly(acrylic acid) and methylcellulose in the formation of ultrathin multilayered hydrogels and spherical nanoparticles

Poly(acrylic acid) forms insoluble hydrogen-bonded interpolymer complexes with methylcellulose in aqueous solutions under acidic conditions. In this work the reaction heats and binding constants were determined for the complexation between poly(acrylic acid) and methylcellulose by isothermal titration calorimetry at different pH and findings are correlated with the aggregation processes occurring in this system. The principal contribution to the complexation heat results from primary polycomplex particle aggregation. Transmission electron microscopy of nanoparticles produced at pH 1.4 and 2.4 demonstrated that they are spherical and dense structures. The nanoparticles ranged from 80 to 200 nm, whereas particles formed at pH 3.2 were 20-30 nm and were stabilized against aggregation by a network of uncomplexed macromolecules. For the first time, multilayered materials were developed on the basis of hydrogen-bonded complexes of poly(acrylic acid) and methylcellulose using layer-by-layer deposition on a glass surface. The thickness of these films was a linear function of the number of deposition cycles. The materials were subsequently cross-linked by thermal treatment, resulting in ultrathin hydrogels which detached from the glass substrate upon swelling. The swelling capacity of ultrathin hydrogels differed from the swelling of the thicker films of a similar chemical composition.

Neural systems in the visual control of steering

Visual control of locomotion is essential for most mammals and requires coordination between perceptual processes and action systems. Previous research on the neural systems engaged by self-motion has focused on heading perception, which is only one perceptual subcomponent. For effective steering, it is necessary to perceive an appropriate future path and then bring about the required change to heading. Using function magnetic resonance imaging in humans, we reveal a role for the parietal eye fields (PEFs) in directing spatially selective processes relating to future path information. A parietal area close to PEFs appears to be specialized for processing the future path information itself. Furthermore, a separate parietal area responds to visual position error signals, which occur when steering adjustments are imprecise. A network of three areas, the cerebellum, the supplementary eye fields, and dorsal premotor cortex, was found to be involved in generating appropriate motor responses for steering adjustments. This may reflect the demands of integrating visual inputs with the output response for the control device.

Semi-automatic knowledge extraction, representation and context-sensitive intelligent retrieval of video content using collateral context modelling with scalable ontological networks

Automatic indexing and retrieval of digital data poses major challenges. The main problem arises from the ever increasing mass of digital media and the lack of efficient methods for indexing and retrieval of such data based on the semantic content rather than keywords. To enable intelligent web interactions, or even web filtering, we need to be capable of interpreting the information base in an intelligent manner. For a number of years research has been ongoing in the field of ontological engineering with the aim of using ontologies to add such (meta) knowledge to information. In this paper, we describe the architecture of a system (Dynamic REtrieval Analysis and semantic metadata Management (DREAM)) designed to automatically and intelligently index huge repositories of special effects video clips, based on their semantic content, using a network of scalable ontologies to enable intelligent retrieval. The DREAM Demonstrator has been evaluated as deployed in the film post-production phase to support the process of storage, indexing and retrieval of large data sets of special effects video clips as an exemplar application domain. This paper provides its performance and usability results and highlights the scope for future enhancements of the DREAM architecture which has proven successful in its first and possibly most challenging proving ground, namely film production, where it is already in routine use within our test bed Partners' creative processes. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Maturation of limbic corticostriatal activation and connectivity associated with developmental changes in temporal discounting

Temporal discounting (TD) matures with age, alongside other markers of increased impulse control, and coherent, self-regulated behaviour. Discounting paradigms quantify the ability to refrain from preference of immediate rewards, in favour of delayed, larger rewards. As such, they measure temporal foresight and the ability to delay gratification, functions that develop slowly into adulthood. We investigated the neural maturation that accompanies the previously observed age-related behavioural changes in discounting, from early adolescence into mid-adulthood. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging of a hypothetical discounting task with monetary rewards delayed in the week to year range. We show that age-related reductions in choice impulsivity were associated with changes in activation in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), ventral striatum (VS), insula, inferior temporal gyrus, and posterior parietal cortex. Limbic frontostriatal activation changes were specifically associated with age-dependent reductions in impulsive choice, as part of a more extensive network of brain areas showing age-related changes in activation, including dorsolateral PFC, inferior parietal cortex, and subcortical areas. The maturational pattern of functional connectivity included strengthening in activation coupling between ventromedial and dorsolateral PFC, parietal and insular cortices during selection of delayed alternatives, and between vmPFC and VS during selection of immediate alternatives. We conclude that maturational mechanisms within limbic frontostriatal circuitry underlie the observed post-pubertal reductions in impulsive choice with increasing age, and that this effect is dependent on increased activation coherence within a network of areas associated with discounting behaviour and inter-temporal decision-making.

Synthesis and crystal structure of a 3-D zinc phosphate, [C5N2H14][Zn2(PO3(OH))3], containing (4.8) net sheets

A new 3-D zinc phosphate, [C5N2H14][Zn-2(PO3(OH))(3)], has been synthesised under solvothermal conditions in the presence of 1-methylpiperazine. The structure, determined by single-crystal X-ray diffraction at 293 K (RMM = 520.9, orthorhombic, space group P2(1)2(1)2(1); a = 10.0517(2) &ANGS;, b = 10.4293(2) &ANGS; and c = 14.9050(5) &ANGS;; V = 1562.52 &ANGS;(3); Z = 4; R(F) = 2.60%, wR(F) = 2.93%), consists of vertex linked ZnO4 and PO3(OH) tetrahedra assembled into (4.8) net sheets which in turn are linked through further PO3(OH) units to generate a 3-D framework. 1-Methylpiperazinium cations reside within the 3-D channel system, held in place by a strong network of hydrogen bonds. The (4.8) net sheets occur in a number of zeolite structures e.g. ABW and GIS and related zinc phosphate phases. © 2004 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

The growth of private property vehicles in the UK: causes and conditions

The UK private indirect real estate market has seen a rapid growth in the last seven years. The gross asset value (GAV) of the private property vehicle (PPV) market has about tripled from a GAV of £22.6bn in 1998 to a GAV of £67.1 billion at the end of 2005 (OPC, 2006). Although this trend of growing syndication of real estate is not only a UK phenomenon, the rate of growth has been significantly faster in the UK. For example the German open-ended funds have grown over the same period from €50.4bn to €85.1bn (BVI, 2006). In the US the market capitalization of equity real estate investment trusts (REIT) has grown 155% since 1999 to US$ 301bn (NAREIT, 2006). Each jurisdiction is offering different formats to invest indirectly into real estate but at the core all these vehicles are the same in that they provide a different route for investors to access real estate. In the UK, although the range of ‘products’ is now quite diverse, all structures have in common the ‘wrapping’ of property assets into a multi-investor vehicle. This paper examines the nature, pattern and process of market growth in PPVs and constructs a series of associations between causes and effects to explain this market shift.

Evaluation of satellite-based and model re-analysis rainfall estimates for Uganda

The dependence of much of Africa on rain fed agriculture leads to a high vulnerability to fluctuations in rainfall amount. Hence, accurate monitoring of near-real time rainfall is particularly useful, for example in forewarning possible crop shortfalls in drought-prone areas. Unfortunately, ground based observations are often inadequate. Rainfall estimates from satellite-based algorithms and numerical model outputs can fill this data gap, however rigorous assessment of such estimates is required. In this case, three satellite based products (NOAA-RFE 2.0, GPCP-1DD and TAMSAT) and two numerical model outputs (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim) have been evaluated for Uganda in East Africa using a network of 27 rain gauges. The study focuses on the years 2001 to 2005 and considers the main rainy season (February to June). All data sets were converted to the same temporal and spatial scales. Kriging was used for the spatial interpolation of the gauge data. All three satellite products showed similar characteristics and had a high level of skill that exceeded both model outputs. ERA-Interim had a tendency to overestimate whilst ERA-40 consistently underestimated the Ugandan rainfall.

Clustered functional MRI of overt speech production

To investigate the neural network of overt speech production, eventrelated fMRI was performed in 9 young healthy adult volunteers. A clustered image acquisition technique was chosen to minimize speechrelated movement artifacts. Functional images were acquired during the production of oral movements and of speech of increasing complexity (isolated vowel as well as monosyllabic and trisyllabic utterances). This imaging technique and behavioral task enabled depiction of the articulo-phonologic network of speech production from the supplementary motor area at the cranial end to the red nucleus at the caudal end. Speaking a single vowel and performing simple oral movements involved very similar activation of the corticaland subcortical motor systems. More complex, polysyllabic utterances were associated with additional activation in the bilateral cerebellum,reflecting increased demand on speech motor control, and additional activation in the bilateral temporal cortex, reflecting the stronger involvement of phonologic processing.

Turning on the alarm: the neural mechanisms of the transition from innocuous to painful sensation

The experience of pain occurs when the level of a stimulus is sufficient to elicit a marked affective response, putatively to warn the organism of potential danger and motivate appropriate behavioral responses. Understanding the biological mechanisms of the transition from innocuous to painful levels of sensation is essential to understanding pain perception as well as clinical conditions characterized by abnormal relationships between stimulation and pain response. Thus, the primary objective of this study was to characterize the neural response associated with this transition and the correspondence between that response and subjective reports of pain. Towards this goal, this study examined BOLD response profiles across a range of temperatures spanning the pain threshold. 14 healthy adults underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while a range of thermal stimuli (44-49oC) were applied. BOLD responses showed a sigmoidal profile along the range of temperatures in a network of brain regions including insula and mid- cingulate, as well as a number of regions associated with motor responses including ventral lateral nuclei of the thalamus, globus pallidus and premotor cortex. A sigmoid function fit to the BOLD responses in these regions explained up to 85% of the variance in individual pain ratings, and yielded an estimate of the temperature of steepest transition from non-painful to painful heat that was nearly identical to that generated by subjective ratings. These results demonstrate a precise characterization of the relationship between objective levels of stimulation, resulting neural activation, and subjective experience of pain and provide direct evidence for a neural mechanism supporting the nonlinear transition from innocuous to painful levels along the sensory continuum.

Validation of the FALL3D ash dispersion model using observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash clouds

During April-May 2010 volcanic ash clouds from the Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull volcano reached Europe causing an unprecedented disruption of the EUR/NAT region airspace. Civil aviation authorities banned all flight operations because of the threat posed by volcanic ash to modern turbine aircraft. New quantitative airborne ash mass concentration thresholds, still under discussion, were adopted for discerning regions contaminated by ash. This has implications for ash dispersal models routinely used to forecast the evolution of ash clouds. In this new context, quantitative model validation and assessment of the accuracies of current state-of-the-art models is of paramount importance. The passage of volcanic ash clouds over central Europe, a territory hosting a dense network of meteorological and air quality observatories, generated a quantity of observations unusual for volcanic clouds. From the ground, the cloud was observed by aerosol lidars, lidar ceilometers, sun photometers, other remote-sensing instru- ments and in-situ collectors. From the air, sondes and multiple aircraft measurements also took extremely valuable in-situ and remote-sensing measurements. These measurements constitute an excellent database for model validation. Here we validate the FALL3D ash dispersal model by comparing model results with ground and airplane-based measurements obtained during the initial 14e23 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive phase. We run the model at high spatial resolution using as input hourly- averaged observed heights of the eruption column and the total grain size distribution reconstructed from field observations. Model results are then compared against remote ground-based and in-situ aircraft-based measurements, including lidar ceilometers from the German Meteorological Service, aerosol lidars and sun photometers from EARLINET and AERONET networks, and flight missions of the German DLR Falcon aircraft. We find good quantitative agreement, with an error similar to the spread in the observations (however depending on the method used to estimate mass eruption rate) for both airborne and ground mass concentration. Such verification results help us understand and constrain the accuracy and reliability of ash transport models and it is of enormous relevance for designing future operational mitigation strategies at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers.

To what extent do pupils perceive science to be inconsistent with religious faith? An exploratory survey of 13-14 year-old English pupils

Scientists hold a wide range of beliefs on matters of religion, although popular media coverage in the UK commonly suggests that atheism is a core commitment for scientists. Considering the relationship between religion and science is a recommended topic in the English National Curriculum for lower secondary pupils (11-14 year-olds), and it is expected that different perspectives will be considered. However it is well established that many pupils may have difficulty accessing sophisticated ideas about the nature of science, and previous research suggests some may identify science with scientism. To explore pupil impressions of the relationship between science and religion, 13-14 year old pupils were surveyed in one class from each of four English secondary schools, by asking them to rate a set of statements about the relationship between science and religion, and scientific and religious perspectives on the origins of the world, and of life on earth, on the value of prayer and on the status of miracles. The survey revealed diverse views on these issues, reflecting the wider society. However it was found that a considerable proportion of the pupils in the sample considered religious beliefs and scientific perspectives to be opposed. The basis and potential consequences of such views are considered, and the need for more attention to this area of student thinking is highlighted.