Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

Testing symmetry and homogeneity in the almost ideal demand system with co-integrated data using fully modified estimation and the bootstrap

Conventional seemingly unrelated estimation of the almost ideal demand system is shown to lead to small sample bias and distortions in the size of a Wald test for symmetry and homogeneity when the data are co-integrated. A fully modified estimator is developed in an attempt to remedy these problems. It is shown that this estimator reduces the small sample bias but fails to eliminate the size distortion.. Bootstrapping is shown to be ineffective as a method of removing small sample bias in both the conventional and fully modified estimators. Bootstrapping is effective, however, as a method of removing. size distortion and performs equally well in this respect with both estimators.

Effects of a sex-ratio distorting endosymbiont on mtDNA variation in a global insect pest

Background: Patterns of mtDNA variation within a species reflect long-term population structure, but may also be influenced by maternally inherited endosymbionts, such as Wolbachia. These bacteria often alter host reproductive biology and can drive particular mtDNA haplotypes through populations. We investigated the impacts of Wolbachia infection and geography on mtDNA variation in the diamondback moth, a major global pest whose geographic distribution reflects both natural processes and transport via human agricultural activities. Results: The mtDNA phylogeny of 95 individuals sampled from 10 countries on four continents revealed two major clades. One contained only Wolbachia-infected individuals from Malaysia and Kenya, while the other contained only uninfected individuals, from all countries including Malaysia and Kenya. Within the uninfected group was a further clade containing all individuals from Australasia and displaying very limited sequence variation. In contrast, a biparental nuclear gene phylogeny did not have infected and uninfected clades, supporting the notion that maternally-inherited Wolbachia are responsible for the mtDNA pattern. Only about 5% (15/306) of our global sample of individuals was infected with the plutWBI isolate and even within infected local populations, many insects were uninfected. Comparisons of infected and uninfected isofemale lines revealed that plutWBI is associated with sex ratio distortion. Uninfected lines have a 1:1 sex ratio, while infected ones show a 2:1 female bias. Conclusion: The main correlate of mtDNA variation in P. xylostella is presence or absence of the plutWBI infection. This is associated with substantial sex ratio distortion and the underlying mechanisms deserve further study. In contrast, geographic origin is a poor predictor of moth mtDNA sequences, reflecting human activity in moving the insects around the globe. The exception is a clade of Australasian individuals, which may reflect a bottleneck during their recent introduction to this region.

A genetic linkage map of microsatellite, gene-specific and morphological markers in diploid Fragaria

Diploid Fragaria provide a potential model for genomic studies in the Rosaceae. To develop a genetic linkage map of diploid Fragaria, we scored 78 markers (68 microsatellites, one sequence-characterised amplified region, six gene-specific markers and three morphological traits) in an interspecific F2 population of 94 plants generated from a cross of F.vesca f. semperflorens × F. nubicola. Co-segregation analysis arranged 76 markers into seven discrete linkage groups covering 448 cM, with linkage group sizes ranging from 100.3 cM to 22.9 cM. Marker coverage was generally good; however some clustering of markers was observed on six of the seven linkage groups. Segregation distortion was observed at a high proportion of loci (54%), which could reflect the interspecific nature of the progeny and, in some cases, the self-incompatibility of F. nubicola. Such distortion may also account for some of the marker clustering observed in the map. One of the morphological markers, pale-green leaf (pg) has not previously been mapped in Fragaria and was located to the mid-point of linkage group VI. The transferable nature of the markers used in this study means that the map will be ideal for use as a framework for additional marker incorporation aimed at enhancing and resolving map coverage of the diploid Fragaria genome. The map also provides a sound basis for linkage map transfer to the cultivated octoploid strawberry.

The threading of [(CuCN)(2)(mu-4,4 '-bpy)] sheets by CuCN chains

Yellow (CuCN)(2)[(CuCN)(2)(mu-4,4'-bpy)], formed in the hydrothermal reaction of CuCN with 4,4'-bipyridine at 453 K, contains two types of infinite CuCN chains. One set of CuCN chains is linked by 4,4'-bpy ligands to form almost flat sheets of composition [(CuCN)(2)(mu-4,4'-bpy)]. Holes in these sheets are aligned to allow pairs of approximately linear, infinite -(CuCN)- chains to thread through them. The closest interatomic approach between copper atoms in the threading chains and host sheets (similar to2.74 Angstrom) does not appear to represent a significant covalent bond as it leads to only a small distortion of the -(CuCN)- chains from linearity The relationship of this material to the previously determined structures of the host [(CuCN)(2)(mu-4,4'-bpy)] sheets and (CuCN)(3)[(CuCN)(2)(mu-4,4'-bPY)](2), in which these sheets are threaded by single -(CuCN)- chains, is discussed.

Vibrations in the B-4 rhombic structure

A double minimum six-dimensional Potential energy surface (PES) is determined in symmetry coordinates for the most stable rhombic (D-2h) B-4 isomer in its (1)A(g) electronic ground state by fitting to energies calculated ab initio. The PES exhibits a barrier to the D-4h square structure of 255 cm(-1). The vibrational levels (J=0) are calculated variationally using an approach which involves the Watson kinetic energy operator expressed in normal coordinates. The pattern of about 65 vibrational levels up to 1600 cm-1 for all stable isotopomers is analyzed. Analogous to the inversion in ammonia-like molecules, the rhombus rearrangements lead to splittings of the vibrational levels. In B-4 it is the B-1g (D-4h mode which distorts the square molecule to its planar rhombic form. The anharmonic fundamental vibrational transitions of B-11(4) are calculated to be (splittings in parentheses): G(O) = 2352(22) cm(-1), v(1)(A(1g)) - 1136(24) cm(-1,) v(2)(B-1g)=209(144) cm(-1) v(3)(B-2g)=1198(19)cm(-1), v(4)(B-2u) = 271(24) cm(-1), and v(5) (E-u) = 1030( 166) cm(-1) (D-4h notation). Their variations in all stable isotoporners were investigated. Due to the presence of strong anharmonic resonances between the B-1g in-plane distortion and the B-2u, out-of-plane bending modes. the hiaher overtones and combination levels are difficult to assign unequivocally. (C) 2005 American Institute of Physics.

Toughness & cutting: A new way of determining ductile fracture toughness and strength

A review is given of the mechanics of cutting, ranging from the slicing of thin floppy offcuts (where there is negligible elasticity and no permanent deformation of the offcut) to the machining of ductile metals (where there is severe permanent distortion of the offcut/chip). Materials scientists employ the former conditions to determine the fracture toughness of ‘soft’ solids such as biological materials and foodstuffs. In contrast, traditional analyses of metalcutting are based on plasticity and friction only, and do not incorporate toughness. The machining theories are inadequate in a number of ways but a recent paper has shown that when ductile work of fracture is included many, if not all, of the shortcomings are removed. Support for the new analysis is given by examination of FEM simulations of metalcutting which reveal that a ‘separation criterion’ has to be employed at the tool tip. Some consideration shows that the separation criteria are versions of void-initiation-growth-and-coalescence models employed in ductile fracture mechanics. The new analysis shows that cutting forces for ductile materials depend upon the fracture toughness as well as plasticity and friction, and reveals a simple way of determining both toughness and flow stress from cutting experiments. Examples are given for a wide range of materials including metals, polymers and wood, and comparison is made with the same properties independently determined using conventional testpieces. Because cutting can be steady state, a new way is presented for simultaneously measuring toughness and flow stress at controlled speeds and strain rates.

Perceptual grouping and distance estimates in typical and atypical development: comparing performance across perception, drawing and construction tasks

Perceptual grouping is a pre-attentive process which serves to group local elements into global wholes, based on shared properties. One effect of perceptual grouping is to distort the ability to estimate the distance between two elements. In this study, biases in distance estimates, caused by four types of perceptual grouping, were measured across three tasks, a perception, a drawing and a construction task in both typical development (TD: Experiment 1) and in individuals with Williams syndrome (WS: Experiment 2). In Experiment 1, perceptual grouping distorted distance estimates across all three tasks. Interestingly, the effect of grouping by luminance was in the opposite direction to the effects of the remaining grouping types. We relate this to differences in the ability to inhibit perceptual grouping effects on distance estimates. Additive distorting influences were also observed in the drawing and the construction task, which are explained in terms of the points of reference employed in each task. Experiment 2 demonstrated that the above distortion effects are also observed in WS. Given the known deficit in the ability to use perceptual grouping in WS, this suggests a dissociation between the pre-attentive influence of and the attentive deployment of perceptual grouping in WS. The typical distortion in relation to drawing and construction points towards the presence of some typical location coding strategies in WS. The performance of the WS group differed from the TD participants on two counts. First, the pattern of overall distance estimates (averaged across interior and exterior distances) across the four perceptual grouping types, differed between groups. Second, the distorting influence of perceptual grouping was strongest for grouping by shape similarity in WS, which contrasts to a strength in grouping by proximity observed in the TD participants. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sample-induced beam distortions in terahertz time domain spectroscopy and imaging systems

It is demonstrated that distortion of the terahertz beam profile and generation of a cross-polarised component occur when the beam in terahertz time domain spectroscopy and imaging systems interacts with the sample under test. These distortions modify the detected signal, leading to spectral and image artefacts. The degree of distortion depends on the optical design of the system as well as the properties of the sample.

The consequences of diffractively spreading beams in ultrafast THz spectroscopy

There are established methods for calculating optical constants from measurements using a broadband terahertz (THz) source. Applications to ultrafast THz spectroscopy have adopted the key assumption that the THz beam is treated as a normal incidence plane-wave. We show that this assumption results in a frequency-dependent systematic error, which is compounded by distortion of the beam on introduction of the sample.

Fractal quantization

A Fractal Quantizer is proposed that replaces the expensive division operation for the computation of scalar quantization by more modest and available multiplication, addition and shift operations. Although the proposed method is iterative in nature, simulations prove a virtually undetectable distortion to the naked eve for JPEG compressed images using a single iteration. The method requires a change to the usual tables used in JPEG algorithins but of similar size. For practical purposes, performing quantization is reduced to a multiplication plus addition operation easily programmed in either low-end embedded processors and suitable for efficient and very high speed implementation in ASIC or FPGA hardware. FPGA hardware implementation shows up to x15 area-time savingscompared to standars solutions for devices with dedicated multipliers. The method can be also immediately extended to perform adaptive quantization(1).

Characterization and classification of tumor lesions using computerized fractal-based texture analysis and support vector machines in digital mammograms

Objective: This paper presents a detailed study of fractal-based methods for texture characterization of mammographic mass lesions and architectural distortion. The purpose of this study is to explore the use of fractal and lacunarity analysis for the characterization and classification of both tumor lesions and normal breast parenchyma in mammography. Materials and methods: We conducted comparative evaluations of five popular fractal dimension estimation methods for the characterization of the texture of mass lesions and architectural distortion. We applied the concept of lacunarity to the description of the spatial distribution of the pixel intensities in mammographic images. These methods were tested with a set of 57 breast masses and 60 normal breast parenchyma (dataset1), and with another set of 19 architectural distortions and 41 normal breast parenchyma (dataset2). Support vector machines (SVM) were used as a pattern classification method for tumor classification. Results: Experimental results showed that the fractal dimension of region of interest (ROIs) depicting mass lesions and architectural distortion was statistically significantly lower than that of normal breast parenchyma for all five methods. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that fractional Brownian motion (FBM) method generated the highest area under ROC curve (A z = 0.839 for dataset1, 0.828 for dataset2, respectively) among five methods for both datasets. Lacunarity analysis showed that the ROIs depicting mass lesions and architectural distortion had higher lacunarities than those of ROIs depicting normal breast parenchyma. The combination of FBM fractal dimension and lacunarity yielded the highest A z value (0.903 and 0.875, respectively) than those based on single feature alone for both given datasets. The application of the SVM improved the performance of the fractal-based features in differentiating tumor lesions from normal breast parenchyma by generating higher A z value. Conclusion: FBM texture model is the most appropriate model for characterizing mammographic images due to self-affinity assumption of the method being a better approximation. Lacunarity is an effective counterpart measure of the fractal dimension in texture feature extraction in mammographic images. The classification results obtained in this work suggest that the SVM is an effective method with great potential for classification in mammographic image analysis.

Comparison of subspace and ARX models of a waveguide's terahertz transient response after optimal wavelet filtering

A quasi-optical deembedding technique for characterizing waveguides is demonstrated using wide-band time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy. A transfer function representation is adopted for the description of the signal in the input and output port of the waveguides. The time-domain responses were discretized and the waveguide transfer function was obtained through a parametric approach in the z-domain after describing the system with an AutoRegressive with eXogenous input (ARX), as well as with a state-space model. Prior to the identification procedure, filtering was performed in the wavelet domain to minimize both signal distortion, as well as the noise propagating in the ARX and subspace models. The optimal filtering procedure used in the wavelet domain for the recorded time-domain signatures is described in detail. The effect of filtering prior to the identification procedures is elucidated with the aid of pole-zero diagrams. Models derived from measurements of terahertz transients in a precision WR-8 waveguide adjustable short are presented.

Perceptual constancy, reverberation, and grouping: within-band effects

Perceptual constancy effects are observed when differing amounts of reverberation are applied to a context sentence and a test‐word embedded in it. Adding reverberation to members of a “sir”‐“stir” test‐word continuum causes temporal‐envelope distortion, which has the effect of eliciting more sir responses from listeners. If the same amount of reverberation is also applied to the context sentence, the number of sir responses decreases again, indicating an “extrinsic” compensation for the effects of reverberation. Such a mechanism would effect perceptual constancy of phonetic perception when temporal envelopes vary in reverberation. This experiment asks whether such effects precede or follow grouping. Eight auditory‐filter shaped noise‐bands were modulated with the temporal envelopes that arise when speech is played through these filters. The resulting “gestalt” percept is the appropriate speech rather than the sound of noise‐bands, presumably due to across‐channel “grouping.” These sounds were played to listeners in “matched” conditions, where reverberation was present in the same bands in both context and test‐word, and in “mismatched” conditions, where the bands in which reverberation was added differed between context and test‐word. Constancy effects were obtained in matched conditions, but not in mismatched conditions, indicating that this type of constancy in hearing precedes across‐channel grouping.