A framework for comparing pollinator performance: effectiveness and efficiency

Measuring pollinator performance has become increasingly important with emerging needs for risk assessment in conservation and sustainable agriculture that require multi-year and multi-site comparisons across studies. However, comparing pollinator performance across studies is difficult because of the diversity of concepts and disparate methods in use. Our review of the literature shows many unresolved ambiguities. Two different assessment concepts predominate: the first estimates stigmatic pollen deposition and the underlying pollinator behaviour parameters, while the second estimates the pollinator’s contribution to plant reproductive success, for example in terms of seed set. Both concepts include a number of parameters combined in diverse ways and named under a diversity of synonyms and homonyms. However, these concepts are overlapping because pollen deposition success is the most frequently used proxy for assessing the pollinator’s contribution to plant reproductive success. We analyse the diverse concepts and methods in the context of a new proposed conceptual framework with a modular approach based on pollen deposition, visit frequency, and contribution to seed set relative to the plant’s maximum female reproductive potential. A system of equations is proposed to optimize the balance between idealised theoretical concepts and practical operational methods. Our framework permits comparisons over a range of floral phenotypes, and spatial and temporal scales, because scaling up is based on the same fundamental unit of analysis, the single visit.

Towards a holistic modelling framework for embodied carbon and waste in the building lifecycle

As the building industry proceeds in the direction of low impact buildings, research attention is being drawn towards the reduction of carbon dioxide emission and waste. Starting from design and construction to operation and demolition, various building materials are used throughout the whole building lifecycle involving significant energy consumption and waste generation. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is emerging as a tool that can support holistic design-decision making for reducing embodied carbon and waste production in the building lifecycle. This study aims to establish a framework for assessing embodied carbon and waste underpinned by BIM technology. On the basis of current research review, the framework is considered to include functional modules for embodied carbon computation. There are a module for waste estimation, a knowledge-base of construction and demolition methods, a repository of building components information, and an inventory of construction materials’ energy and carbon. Through both static 3D model visualisation and dynamic modelling supported by the framework, embodied energy (carbon), waste and associated costs can be analysed in the boundary of cradle-to-gate, construction, operation, and demolition. The proposed holistic modelling framework provides a possibility to analyse embodied carbon and waste from different building lifecycle perspectives including associated costs. It brings together existing segmented embodied carbon and waste estimation into a unified model, so that interactions between various parameters through the different building lifecycle phases can be better understood. Thus, it can improve design-decision support for optimal low impact building development. The applicability of this framework is anticipated being developed and tested on industrial projects in the near future.

The SAFE FOODS framework for improved risk analysis of foods

Three main changes to current risk analysis processes are proposed to improve their transparency, openness, and accountability. First, the addition of a formal framing stage would allow interested parties, experts and officials to work together as needed to gain an initial shared understanding of the issue, the objectives of regulatory action, and alternative risk management measures. Second, the scope of the risk assessment is expanded to include the assessment of health and environmental benefits as well as risks, and the explicit consideration of economic- and social-impacts of risk management action and their distribution. Moreover approaches were developed for deriving improved information from genomic, proteomic and metabolomic profiling methods and for probabilistic modelling of health impacts for risk assessment purposes. Third, in an added evaluation stage, interested parties, experts, and officials may compare and weigh the risks, costs, and benefits and their distribution. As part of a set of recommendations on risk communication, we propose that reports on each stage should be made public.

A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions

A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multi-model climate ensembles is presented. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to decompose a measure of total variation additively into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability. This approach requires fewer assumptions than existing methods and can be easily used to quantify uncertainty related to model-scenario interaction - the contribution to model uncertainty arising from the variation across scenarios of model deviations from the ensemble mean. Uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature is quantified as a function of lead time for a subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble and results largely agree with those published by other authors: scenario uncertainty dominates beyond 2050 and internal variability remains approximately constant over the 21st century. Both elements of model uncertainty, due to scenario-independent and scenario-dependent deviations from the ensemble mean, are found to increase with time. Estimates of model deviations that arise as by-products of the framework reveal significant differences between models that could lead to a deeper understanding of the sources of uncertainty in multi-model ensembles. For example, three models are shown diverging pattern over the 21st century, while another model exhibits an unusually large variation among its scenario-dependent deviations.

Sequential methods for pharmacogenetic studies

A study or experiment can be described as sequential if its design includes one or more interim analyses at which it is possible to stop the study, having reached a definitive conclusion concerning the primary question of interest. The potential of the sequential study to terminate earlier than the equivalent fixed sample size study means that, typically, there are ethical and economic advantages to be gained from using a sequential design. These advantages have secured a place for the methodology in the conduct of many clinical trials of novel therapies. Recently, there has been increasing interest in pharmacogenetics: the study of how DNA variation in the human genome affects the safety and efficacy of drugs. The potential for using sequential methodology in pharmacogenetic studies is considered and the conduct of candidate gene association studies, family-based designs and genome-wide association studies within the sequential setting is explored. The objective is to provide a unified framework for the conduct of these types of studies as sequential designs and hence allow experimenters to consider using sequential methodology in their future pharmacogenetic studies.

Towards a European tephrochronological framework for Termination 1 and the Early Holocene

The record of deposition of tephras in Europe and the North Atlantic during the period 18.5–8.0 ¹⁴C ka BP (the Last Termination and Early Holocene) is reviewed. Altogether, 34 tephras originating from four main volcanic provinces (Iceland, the Eifel district, the Massif Central and Italy) have been identified so far in geological sequences spanning this time–interval. Most of the records have been based, until very recently, on observations of visible layers of tephras. Here, we report on the potential for extending the areas over which some of the tephras can be traced by the search for layers of micro–tephra, which are not visible to the naked eye, and on the use of geochemical methods to correlate them with known tephra horizons. This approach has greatly extended the area in Northern Europe over which the Vedde Ash can be traced. The same potential exists in southern Europe, which is demonstrated for the first time by the discovery of a distinct layer of micro–tephra of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff in a site in the Northern Apennines in Italy, far to the north of the occurrences of visible records of this tephra. The paper closes by considering the potential for developing a robust European tephrostratigraphy to underpin the chronology of records of the Last Termination and Early Holocene, thereby promoting a better understanding of the nature, timing and environmental effects of the abrupt climatic changes that characterized this period.

Sampling series for determination of probability density of CDMA multiple access interference

Consideration is given to a standard CDMA system and determination of the density function of the interference with and without Gaussian noise using sampling theory concepts. The formula derived provides fast and accurate results and is a simple, useful alternative to other methods

Improvement of 3D protein models using multiple templates guided by single-template model quality assessment

Motivation: Modelling the 3D structures of proteins can often be enhanced if more than one fold template is used during the modelling process. However, in many cases, this may also result in poorer model quality for a given target or alignment method. There is a need for modelling protocols that can both consistently and significantly improve 3D models and provide an indication of when models might not benefit from the use of multiple target-template alignments. Here, we investigate the use of both global and local model quality prediction scores produced by ModFOLDclust2, to improve the selection of target-template alignments for the construction of multiple-template models. Additionally, we evaluate clustering the resulting population of multi- and single-template models for the improvement of our IntFOLD-TS tertiary structure prediction method. Results: We find that using accurate local model quality scores to guide alignment selection is the most consistent way to significantly improve models for each of the sequence to structure alignment methods tested. In addition, using accurate global model quality for re-ranking alignments, prior to selection, further improves the majority of multi-template modelling methods tested. Furthermore, subsequent clustering of the resulting population of multiple-template models significantly improves the quality of selected models compared with the previous version of our tertiary structure prediction method, IntFOLD-TS.

Fitness and dissemination of disinfectant-selected multiple-antibiotic-resistant (MAR) strains of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium in chickens

Objectives: The aims of this study were to determine whether strains of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium which had acquired low-level multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR) through repeated exposure to farm disinfectants were able to colonize and transmit between chicks as easily as the parent strain and, if such strains were less susceptible to fluoroquinolones, would high-level resistance be selected after fluoroquinolone treatment. Methods: Two mutants were compared with the isogenic parent. In the first experiment, day-old chicks were co-infected with both the parent and a mutant to determine their relative fitness. In the second experiment, parent and mutant strains (in separate groups of chicks) were assessed for their ability to transmit from infected (contact) to non-infected (naive) birds and with respect to their susceptibility to fluoroquinolone treatment. Birds were regularly monitored for the presence of Salmonella in caecal contents. Replica plating was used to monitor for the selection of antibiotic-resistant strains. Results: The parent strain was shown to be significantly fitter than the two mutants and was more rapidly disseminated to naive birds. Antibiotic treatment did not preferentially select for the two mutants or for resistant strains. Conclusions: The disinfectant-exposed strains, although MAR, were less fit, less able to disseminate than the parent strain and were not preferentially selected by therapeutic antibiotic treatment. As such, these strains are unlikely to present a greater problem than other salmonellae in chickens.

A theoretical framework for energy and momentum consistency in subgrid-scale parameterization for climate models

A theoretical framework for the joint conservation of energy and momentum in the parameterization of subgrid-scale processes in climate models is presented. The framework couples a hydrostatic resolved (planetary scale) flow to a nonhydrostatic subgrid-scale (mesoscale) flow. The temporal and horizontal spatial scale separation between the planetary scale and mesoscale is imposed using multiple-scale asymptotics. Energy and momentum are exchanged through subgrid-scale flux convergences of heat, pressure, and momentum. The generation and dissipation of subgrid-scale energy and momentum is understood using wave-activity conservation laws that are derived by exploiting the (mesoscale) temporal and horizontal spatial homogeneities in the planetary-scale flow. The relations between these conservation laws and the planetary-scale dynamics represent generalized nonacceleration theorems. A derived relationship between the wave-activity fluxes-which represents a generalization of the second Eliassen-Palm theorem-is key to ensuring consistency between energy and momentum conservation. The framework includes a consistent formulation of heating and entropy production due to kinetic energy dissipation.

Multiple routes to mammalian diversity

The radiation of the mammals provides a 165-million-year test case for evolutionary theories of how species occupy and then fill ecological niches. It is widely assumed that species often diverge rapidly early in their evolution, and that this is followed by a longer, drawn-out period of slower evolutionary fine-tuning as natural selection fits organisms into an increasingly occupied niche space1,2. But recent studies have hinted that the process may not be so simple3–5. Here we apply statistical methods that automatically detect temporal shifts in the rate of evolution through time to a comprehensive mammalian phylogeny6 and data set7 of body sizes of 3,185 extant species. Unexpectedly, the majority of mammal species, including two of the most speciose orders (Rodentia and Chiroptera), have no history of substantial and sustained increases in the rates of evolution. Instead, a subset of the mammals has experienced an explosive increase (between 10- and 52-fold) in the rate of evolution along the single branch leading to the common ancestor of their monophyletic group (for example Chiroptera), followed by a quick return to lower or background levels. The remaining species are a taxonomically diverse assemblage showing a significant, sustained increase or decrease in their rates of evolution. These results necessarily decouple morphological diversification from speciation and suggest that the processes that give rise to the morphological diversity of a class of animals are far more free to vary than previously considered. Niches do not seem to fill up, and diversity seems to arise whenever, wherever and at whatever rate it is advantageous.

Diversity of strains of Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis from English poultry farms assessed by multiple genetic fingerprinting

Reliable and sufficiently discriminative methods are needed for differentiating individual strains of Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis beyond the phenotypic level; however, a consensus has not been reached as to which molecular method is best suited for this purpose. In addition, data are lacking on the molecular fingerprinting of serotype Enteritidis from poultry environments in the United Kingdom. This study evaluated the combined use of classical methods (phage typing) with three well-established molecular methods (ribotyping, macrorestriction analysis of genomic DNA, and plasmid profiling) in the assessment of diversity within 104 isolates of serotype Enteritidis from eight unaffiliated poultry farms in England. The most sensitive technique for identifying polymorphism was PstI-SphII ribotyping, distinguishing a total of 22 patterns, 10 of which were found among phage type 4 isolates. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis of XhaI-digested genomic DNA segregated the isolates into only six types with minor differences between them. In addition, 14 plasmid profiles were found among this population. When all of the typing methods were combined, 54 types of strains were differentiated, and most of the poultry farms presented a variety of strains, which suggests that serotype Enteritidis organisms representing different genomic groups are circulating in England. In conclusion, geographical and animal origins of Salmonella serotype Enteritidis isolates may have a considerable influence on selecting the best typing strategy for individual programs, and a single method cannot be relied on for discriminating between strains.

Prevalence of multiple antibiotic resistance in 443 Campylobacter spp. isolated from humans and animals

Aims: In view of recent findings that a multidrug efflux pump CmeABC exists in Campylobacter jejuni, 391 C. jejuni and 52 Campylobacter coli of human and animal origin were examined for a multidrug resistance phenotype. Materials and methods: The MICs of ampicillin, chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, erythromycin, kanamycin, tetracycline, cetrimide, triclosan, acridine orange, paraquat and ethidium bromide were determined. Resistance to organic solvents and the effect of salicylate (known inducer of the marRAB operon in Escherichia coli and Salmonella) were also examined. Results: Two C. coli and 13 C. jejuni isolates, mainly from pigs or poultry, were resistant to three or more antibiotics and 12 of these strains had reduced susceptibility to acridine orange and/or ethidium bromide. Strains (n=20) that were less susceptible to acridine orange, ethidium bromide and triclosan were significantly more resistant (P<0.05) to ampicillin, chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, erythromycin, nalidixic acid and tetracycline, with two- to four-fold increases in MIC values compared with strains (n=20) most susceptible to acridine orange, ethidium bromide and triclosan. Growth of strains with 1 mM salicylate caused a small (up to two-fold) but statistically significant (Pless than or equal to0.005) increase in the MICs of chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, erythromycin and tetracycline. Conclusions: These data indicate that multiple antibiotic resistant (MAR)-like Campylobacter strains occur and it may be postulated that these may overexpress cmeABC or another efflux system.

Expression of the efflux pump genes cmeB, cmeF and the porin gene porA in multiple-antibiotic-resistant Campylobacter jejuni

Aims: In Escherichia coli, increased expression of efflux pumps and/or decreased expression of porins can confer multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR), causing resistance to at least three unrelated classes of antibiotics, detergents and dyes. It was hypothesized that in Campylobacter jejuni, the efflux systems CmeABC, CmeDEF and the major outer membrane porin protein, MOMP (encoded by porA) could confer MAR. Methods: The expression of cmeB, cmeF and porA in 32 MAR C. jejuni isolated from humans or poultry was determined by comparative (C)-reverse transcriptase (RT)-PCR and denaturing DHPLC. A further 13 ethidium bromide-resistant isolates and three control strains were also investigated. Accumulation of ciprofloxacin carbonyl cyanide-m-chlorophenyl hydrazone (CCCP) was also determined for all strains. Results: Although resistance to ethidium bromide has been associated with MAR, expression of all three genes was similar in the ethidium bromide-resistant isolates. These data indicate that CmeB, CmeF and MOMP play no role in resistance to this agent in C. jejuni. Six MAR isolates over-expressed cmeB, 3/32 over-expressed cmeB and cmeF. No isolates over-expressed cmeF alone. Expression of porA was similar in all isolates. All nine isolates that over-expressed cmeB contained a mutation in cmeR, substituting glycine 86 with alanine. All cmeB over-expressing isolates also accumulated low concentrations of ciprofloxacin, which were restored to wild-type levels in the presence of CCCP. Conclusions: These data indicate that over-expression of cmeB is associated with MAR in isolates of C. jejuni. However, as cmeB was over-expressed by only one-third (9/32) of MAR isolates, these data also indicate other mechanisms of MAR in C. jejuni.

Farm disinfectants select for cyclohexane resistance, a marker of multiple antibiotic resistance, in Escherichia coli

Aims: The aim of this study was to determine if three classes of farm disinfectants were able to select for ciprofloxacin or cyclohexane tolerant [ indicative of a multiple antibiotic resistance ( MAR) phenotype] Escherichia coli and if cyclohexane-tolerant E. coli could be isolated from farms. Methods and Results: Chicken slurry containing ca 1 : 99 ratio ciprofloxacin resistant : susceptible E. coli ( 10 different resistant strains examined) was treated for 24 h with each of the disinfectants and examined for survival of resistant : susceptible strains. Ciprofloxacin-sensitive ( n = 5) and - resistant ( n = 5) E. coli were grown with sublethal concentrations of the disinfectants and then plated to agar containing ciprofloxacin or overlaid with cyclohexane. Escherichia coli ( n = 389) isolated from farms were tested for cyclohexane tolerance. Minimum inhibitory concentrations ( MIC) were determined against representative isolates and mutants. The disinfectants did not select for the ciprofloxacin-resistant E. coli in poultry slurry but following growth with each of the three disinfectants, higher numbers ( Pless than or equal to 0(.)023) of cyclohexane-tolerant E. coli were isolated and these had a MAR phenotype. Of the 389 farm E. coli tested, only one was cyclohexane tolerant. Conclusions: It is possible that in a farm environment, E. coli could be exposed to similar concentrations of the disinfectants that are selected for MAR type organisms under these laboratory conditions. Significance and Impact of the Study: Data from this study suggest that cyclohexane-resistant E. coli are not common on farms, but in view of the ease of isolating them in the laboratory with farm disinfectants, further investigations on farms are warranted.