Succession to farm tenancies: future imperfect?

Until the law was amended in 1984, the tenants of agricultural holdings enjoyed security of tenure for life, plus the prospect of two family successions to their tenancies, virtually guaranteeing a tenant- farming family at least three generations occupation of a holding. The orthodox view has been that any transfers of interests that took place before the passing of the Act which introduced the scheme in 1976 would not count towards the inherent 'totting-up' process. The 1993 High Court judgement in Saunders v Ralph has raised serious questions as to the validity of that assertion. This paper seeks to identify the key legal provisions involved and to highlight the problems that may result from the case.

Development of a dense SNP-based linkage map of an apple rootstock progeny using the Malus Infinium whole genome genotyping array

Background A whole-genome genotyping array has previously been developed for Malus using SNP data from 28 Malus genotypes. This array offers the prospect of high throughput genotyping and linkage map development for any given Malus progeny. To test the applicability of the array for mapping in diverse Malus genotypes, we applied the array to the construction of a SNPbased linkage map of an apple rootstock progeny. Results Of the 7,867 Malus SNP markers on the array, 1,823 (23.2 %) were heterozygous in one of the two parents of the progeny, 1,007 (12.8 %) were heterozygous in both parental genotypes, whilst just 2.8 % of the 921 Pyrus SNPs were heterozygous. A linkage map spanning 1,282.2 cM was produced comprising 2,272 SNP markers, 306 SSR markers and the S-locus. The length of the M432 linkage map was increased by 52.7 cM with the addition of the SNP markers, whilst marker density increased from 3.8 cM/marker to 0.5 cM/marker. Just three regions in excess of 10 cM remain where no markers were mapped. We compared the positions of the mapped SNP markers on the M432 map with their predicted positions on the ‘Golden Delicious’ genome sequence. A total of 311 markers (13.7 % of all mapped markers) mapped to positions that conflicted with their predicted positions on the ‘Golden Delicious’ pseudo-chromosomes, indicating the presence of paralogous genomic regions or misassignments of genome sequence contigs during the assembly and anchoring of the genome sequence. Conclusions We incorporated data for the 2,272 SNP markers onto the map of the M432 progeny and have presented the most complete and saturated map of the full 17 linkage groups of M. pumila to date. The data were generated rapidly in a high-throughput semi-automated pipeline, permitting significant savings in time and cost over linkage map construction using microsatellites. The application of the array will permit linkage maps to be developed for QTL analyses in a cost-effective manner, and the identification of SNPs that have been assigned erroneous positions on the ‘Golden Delicious’ reference sequence will assist in the continued improvement of the genome sequence assembly for that variety.

Institutional capacity and implementation issues in farmers' rights

Armed with the ‘equity’ and ‘conservation’ arguments that have a deep resonance with farming communities, developing countries are crafting a range of measures designed to protect farmers’ access to innovations, reward their contributions to the conservation and enhancement of plant genetic resources and provide incentives for sustained on-farm conservation. These measures range from the commericialization of farmers’ varieties to the conferment of a set of legally enforceable rights on farming communities – the exercise of which is expected to provide economic rewards to those responsible for on-farm conservation and innovation. The rights-based approach has been the cornerstone of legislative provision for implementing farmers’ rights in most developing countries. In drawing up these measures, developing countries do not appear to have systematically examined or provided for the substantial institutional capacity required for the effective implementation of farmers’ rights provisions. The lack of institutional capacity threatens to undermine any prospect of serious implementation of these provisions. More importantly, the expectation that significant incentives for on-farm conservation and innovation will flow from these ‘rights’ may be based on a flawed understanding of the economics of intellectual property rights. While farmers’ rights may provide only limited rewards for conservation, they may still have the effect of diluting the incentives for innovative institutional breeding programs – with the private sector increasingly relying on non-IPR instruments to profit from innovation. The focus on a rights-based approach may also draw attention away from alternative stewardship-based approaches to the realization of farmers’ rights objectives.

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide impairs the performance of root-feeding vine weevils by modifying root growth and secondary metabolites

Predicting how insect crop pests will respond to global climate change is an important part of increasing crop production for future food security, and will increasingly rely on empirically based evidence. The effects of atmospheric composition, especially elevated carbon dioxide (eCO(2)), on insect herbivores have been well studied, but this research has focussed almost exclusively on aboveground insects. However, responses of root-feeding insects to eCO(2) are unlikely to mirror these trends because of fundamental differences between aboveground and belowground habitats. Moreover, changes in secondary metabolites and defensive responses to insect attack under eCO(2) conditions are largely unexplored for root herbivore interactions. This study investigated how eCO(2) (700 mu mol mol-1) affected a root-feeding herbivore via changes to plant growth and concentrations of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phenolics. This study used the root-feeding vine weevil, Otiorhynchus sulcatus and the perennial crop, Ribes nigrum. Weevil populations decreased by 33% and body mass decreased by 23% (from 7.2 to 5.4 mg) in eCO(2). Root biomass decreased by 16% in eCO(2), which was strongly correlated with weevil performance. While root N concentrations fell by 8%, there were no significant effects of eCO(2) on root C and N concentrations. Weevils caused a sink in plants, resulting in 8-12% decreases in leaf C concentration following herbivory. There was an interactive effect of CO(2) and root herbivory on root phenolic concentrations, whereby weevils induced an increase at ambient CO(2), suggestive of defensive response, but caused a decrease under eCO(2). Contrary to predictions, there was a positive relationship between root phenolics and weevil performance. We conclude that impaired root-growth underpinned the negative effects of eCO(2) on vine weevils and speculate that the plant's failure to mount a defensive response at eCO(2) may have intensified these negative effects.

Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model

The mechanisms involved in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) decadal variability and predictability over the last 50 years are analysed in the IPSL–CM5A–LR model using historical and initialised simulations. The initialisation procedure only uses nudging towards sea surface temperature anomalies with a physically based restoring coefficient. When compared to two independent AMOC reconstructions, both the historical and nudged ensemble simulations exhibit skill at reproducing AMOC variations from 1977 onwards, and in particular two maxima occurring respectively around 1978 and 1997. We argue that one source of skill is related to the large Mount Agung volcanic eruption starting in 1963, which reset an internal 20-year variability cycle in the North Atlantic in the model. This cycle involves the East Greenland Current intensity, and advection of active tracers along the subpolar gyre, which leads to an AMOC maximum around 15 years after the Mount Agung eruption. The 1997 maximum occurs approximately 20 years after the former one. The nudged simulations better reproduce this second maximum than the historical simulations. This is due to the initialisation of a cooling of the convection sites in the 1980s under the effect of a persistent North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) positive phase, a feature not captured in the historical simulations. Hence we argue that the 20-year cycle excited by the 1963 Mount Agung eruption together with the NAO forcing both contributed to the 1990s AMOC maximum. These results support the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic in the observations. Hindcasts following the CMIP5 protocol are launched from a nudged simulation every 5 years for the 1960–2005 period. They exhibit significant correlation skill score as compared to an independent reconstruction of the AMOC from 4-year lead-time average. This encouraging result is accompanied by increased correlation skills in reproducing the observed 2-m air temperature in the bordering regions of the North Atlantic as compared to non-initialized simulations. To a lesser extent, predicted precipitation tends to correlate with the nudged simulation in the tropical Atlantic. We argue that this skill is due to the initialisation and predictability of the AMOC in the present prediction system. The mechanisms evidenced here support the idea of volcanic eruptions as a pacemaker for internal variability of the AMOC. Together with the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic they propose a novel and complementary explanation for the AMOC variations over the last 50 years.

Mobilising community action towards a low-carbon future: Opportunities and challenges for local government in the UK

Over the last decade the important role that local authorities can play in catalyzing communityaction on climate change has been repeatedly emphasised by the UK Government. The paper examines this policy context and explores the options available to local authorities in terms of reaching and engaging their communities. The type of progressive response shown by some UKlocal authorities is illustrated with empirical evidence gathered through a study conducted in the London Borough of Islington focusing on their recently established ‘Green Living Centre’. The results confirm interest in this major council-led community initiative, with positive attitudes expressed by the majority of those questioned in terms of the advice and information available. However, it is also clear that many participants had preexisting pro-environmental attitudes and behavioural routines. Results from a broader sample of Islington residents indicate a substantial challenge in reaching the wider community, where enthusiasm for sustainability change and interest in this type of scheme were more mixed. The prospect for local government in addressing this challenge – and their ability to trigger and capitalize upon concepts of social change at the community level towardsalowercarbon future – is discussed in the final part of the paper.

Correction of atmospheric delay effects in radar interferometry using a nested mesoscale atmospheric model

The temporal variability of the atmosphere through which radio waves pass in the technique of differential radar interferometry can seriously limit the accuracy with which the method can measure surface motion. A forward, nested mesoscale model of the atmosphere can be used to simulate the variable water content along the radar path and the resultant phase delays. Using this approach we demonstrate how to correct an interferogram of Mount Etna in Sicily associated with an eruption in 2004-5. The regional mesoscale model (Unified Model) used to simulate the atmosphere at higher resolutions consists of four nested domains increasing in resolution (12, 4, 1, 0.3 km), sitting within the analysis version of a global numerical model that is used to initiate the simulation. Using the high resolution 3D model output we compute the surface pressure, temperature and the water vapour, liquid and solid water contents, enabling the dominant hydrostatic and wet delays to be calculated at specific times corresponding to the acquisition of the radar data. We can also simulate the second-order delay effects due to liquid water and ice.

Geo-Engineering to Confine Climate Change: Is it at all Feasible?

Paul Crutzen (2006) has suggested a research initiative to consider whether it would be feasible to artificially enhance the albedo of the planet Earth to counteract greenhouse warming. The enhancement of albedo would be achieved by intentionally injecting sulfur into the stratosphere. The rational for proposing the experiment is the observed cooling of the atmosphere following the recent major volcanic eruptions by El Chichon in 1984 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 (Hansen et al., 1992). Although I am principally not against a research initiative to study such a potential experiment, I do have important reservations concerning its general feasibility. And its potential feasibility, I believe, must be the key motivation for embarking on such a study. Here I will bring up three major issues, which must be more thoroughly understood before any geo-engineering of climate could be considered, if at all. The three issues are (i) the lack of accuracy in climate prediction, (ii) the huge difference in timescale between the effect of greenhouse gases and the effect of aerosols and (iii) serious environmental problems which may be caused by high carbon dioxide concentration irrespective of the warming of the climate.

Why is the global warming proceeding much slower than expected?

Upper air observations from radiosondes and microwave satellite instruments does not indicate any global warming during the last 19 years, contrary to surface measurements, where a warming trend is supposedly being found. This result is somewhat difficult to reconcile, since climate model experiments do indicate a reverse trend, namely, that upper tropospheric air should warm faster than the surface. To contribute toward an understanding of this difficulty, we have here undertaken some specific experiments to study the effect on climate due to the decrease in stratospheric ozone and the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991. The associated forcing was added to the forcing from greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols (direct and indirect effect), and tropospheric ozone, which was investigated in a separate series of experiments. Furthermore, we have undertaken an ensemble study in order to explore the natural variability of an advanced climate model exposed to such a forcing over 19 years. The result shows that the reduction of stratospheric ozone cools not only the lower stratosphere but also the troposphere, in particular, the upper and middle part. In the upper troposphere the cooling from stratospheric ozone leads to a significant reduction of greenhouse warming. The modeled stratospheric aerosols from Mount Pinatubo generate a climate response (stratospheric warming and tropospheric cooling) in good agreement with microwave satellite measurements. Finally, analysis of a series of experiments with both stratospheric ozone and the Mount Pinatubo effect shows considerable variability in climate response, suggesting that an evolution having no warming in the period is as likely as another evolution showing modest warming. However, the observed trend of no warming in the midtroposphere and clear warming at the surface is not found in the model simulations.

Contributions of roots and rootstocks to sustainable, intensified crop production

Sustainable intensification is seen as the main route for meeting the world’s increasing demands for food and fibre. As demands mount for greater efficiency in the use of resources to achieve this goal, so the focus on roots and rootstocks and their role in acquiring water and nutrients, and overcoming pests and pathogens, is increasing. The purpose of this review is to explore some of the ways in which understanding root systems and their interactions with soils could contribute to the development of more sustainable systems of intensive production. Physical interactions with soil particles limit root growth if soils are dense, but root–soil contact is essential for optimal growth and uptake of water and nutrients. X-ray microtomography demonstrated that maize roots elongated more rapidly with increasing root–soil contact, as long as mechanical impedance was not limiting root elongation, while lupin was less sensitive to changes in root–soil contact. In addition to selecting for root architecture and rhizosphere properties, the growth of many plants in cultivated systems is profoundly affected by selection of an appropriate rootstock. Several mechanisms for scion control by rootstocks have been suggested, but the causal signals are still uncertain and may differ between crop species. Linkage map locations for quantitative trait loci for disease resistance and other traits of interest in rootstock breeding are becoming available. Designing root systems and rootstocks for specific environments is becoming a feasible target.

Control without deception

Lying to participants offers an experimenter the enticing prospect of making “others' behaviour” a controlled variable, but is eschewed by experimental economists because it may pollute the pool of subjects. This paper proposes and implements a new experimental design, the Conditional Information Lottery, which offers all the benefits of deception without actually deceiving anyone. The design should be suitable for most economics experiments, and works by a modification of an already standard device, the Random Lottery incentive system. The deceptive scenarios of designs which use deceit are replaced with fictitious scenarios, each of which, from a subject's viewpoint, has a chance of being true. The design is implemented in a sequential play public good experiment prompted by Weimann's (1994) result, from a deceptive design, that subjects are more sensitive to freeriding than cooperation on the part of others. The experiment provides similar results to Weimann's, in that subjects are at least as cooperative when uninformed about others' behaviour as they are if reacting to high contributions. No deception is used and the data cohere well both internally and with other public goods experiments. In addition, simultaneous play is found to be more efficient than sequential play, and subjects contribute less at the end of a sequence than at the start. The results suggest pronounced elements of overconfidence, egoism and (biased) reciprocity in behaviour, which may explain decay in contributions in repeated play designs. The experiment shows there is a workable alternative to deception.

The Marlborough mound, Wiltshire. A further Neolithic monumental mound by the River Kennet.

Recent radiocarbon dates obtained from two soil cores taken through the Marlborough Castle mound, Wiltshire, show the main body of it to be a contemporaneous monument to Silbury Hill, dating to the second half of the 3rd millennium cal bc. In light of these dates, this paper considers the sequence identified within the cores, which includes two possible flood events early in the construction of the mound. It also describes four cores taken through the surrounding ditch, as well as small-scale work to the north-east of the mound. The topographic location of the mound in a low-lying area and close to rivers and springs is discussed, and the potential for Late Neolithic sites nearby is set out, with the land to the south of the mound identified as an area for future research. The paper ends with the prospect that other apparent mottes in Wiltshire and beyond may well also have prehistoric origins

Quantification of UV-B flux through time using UV-B-absorbing compounds contained in fossil Pinus sporopollenin

• UV-B radiation currently represents c. 1.5% of incoming solar radiation. However, significant changes are known to have occurred in the amount of incoming radiation both on recent and on geological timescales. Until now it has not been possible to reconstruct a detailed measure of UV-B radiation beyond c. 150 yr ago. • Here, we studied the suitability of fossil Pinus spp. pollen to record variations in UV-B flux through time. In view of the large size of the grain and its long fossil history, we hypothesized that this grain could provide a good proxy for recording past variations in UV-B flux. • Two key objectives were addressed: to determine whether there was, similar to other studied species, a clear relationship between UV-B-absorbing compounds in the sporopollenin of extant pollen and the magnitude of UV-B radiation to which it had been exposed; and to determine whether these compounds could be extracted from a small enough sample size of fossil pollen to make reconstruction of a continuous record through time a realistic prospect. • Preliminary results indicate the excellent potential of this species for providing a quantitative record of UV-B through time. Using this technique, we present the first record of UV-B flux during the last 9500 yr from a site near Bergen, Norway.

The integration of lipid-sensing and anti-inflammatory effects: how the PPARs play a role in metabolic balance

The peroxisomal proliferating-activated receptors (PPARs) are lipid-sensing transcription factors that have a role in embryonic development, but are primarily known for modulating energy metabolism, lipid storage, and transport, as well as inflammation and wound healing. Currently, there is no consensus as to the overall combined function of PPARs and why they evolved. We hypothesize that the PPARs had to evolve to integrate lipid storage and burning with the ability to reduce oxidative stress, as energy storage is essential for survival and resistance to injury/infection, but the latter increases oxidative stress and may reduce median survival (functional longevity). In a sense, PPARs may be an evolutionary solution to something we call the 'hypoxia-lipid' conundrum, where the ability to store and burn fat is essential for survival, but is a 'double-edged sword', as fats are potentially highly toxic. Ways in which PPARs may reduce oxidative stress involve modulation of mitochondrial uncoupling protein (UCP) expression (thus reducing reactive oxygen species, ROS), optimising forkhead box class O factor (FOXO) activity (by improving whole body insulin sensitivity) and suppressing NFkB (at the transcriptional level). In light of this, we therefore postulate that inflammation-induced PPAR downregulation engenders many of the signs and symptoms of the metabolic syndrome, which shares many features with the acute phase response (APR) and is the opposite of the phenotype associated with calorie restriction and high FOXO activity. In genetically susceptible individuals (displaying the naturally mildly insulin resistant 'thrifty genotype'), suboptimal PPAR activity may follow an exaggerated but natural adipose tissue-related inflammatory signal induced by excessive calories and reduced physical activity, which normally couples energy storage with the ability to mount an immune response. This is further worsened when pancreatic decompensation occurs, resulting in gluco-oxidative stress and lipotoxicity, increased inflammatory insulin resistance and oxidative stress. Reactivating PPARs may restore a metabolic balance and help to adapt the phenotype to a modern lifestyle.

Fire in the Earth System

Fire is an important component of the Earth System that is tightly coupled with climate, vegetation, biogeochemical cycles, and human activities. Observations of how fire regimes change on seasonal to millennial timescales are providing an improved understanding of the hierarchy of controls on fire regimes. Climate is the principal control on fire regimes, although human activities have had an increasing influence on the distribution and incidence of fire in recent centuries. Understanding of the controls and variability of fire also underpins the development of models, both conceptual and numerical, that allow us to predict how future climate and land-use changes might influence fire regimes. Although fires in fire-adapted ecosystems can be important for biodiversity and ecosystem function, positive effects are being increasingly outweighed by losses of ecosystem services. As humans encroach further into the natural habitat of fire, social and economic costs are also escalating. The prospect of near-term rapid and large climate changes, and the escalating costs of large wildfires, necessitates a radical re-thinking and the development of approaches to fire management that promote the more harmonious co-existence of fire and people.