Radiative forcing due to aviation water vapour emissions

Three emissions inventories have been used with a fully Lagrangian trajectory model to calculate the stratospheric accumulation of water vapour emissions from aircraft, and the resulting radiative forcing. The annual and global mean radiative forcing due to present-day aviation water vapour emissions has been found to be 0.9 [0.3 to 1.4] mW m^2. This is around a factor of three smaller than the value given in recent assessments, and the upper bound is much lower than a recently suggested 20 mW m^2 upper bound. This forcing is sensitive to the vertical distribution of emissions, and, to a lesser extent, interannual variability in meteorology. Large differences in the vertical distribution of emissions within the inventories have been identified, which result in the choice of inventory being the largest source of differences in the calculation of the radiative forcing due to the emissions. Analysis of Northern Hemisphere trajectories demonstrates that the assumption of an e-folding time is not always appropriate for stratospheric emissions. A linear model is more representative for emissions that enter the stratosphere far above the tropopause.

To what extent are EU steel companies susceptible to competitive loss due to climate policy?

In recognition of their competitive vulnerability, a set of special rules have been devised for managing sectors such as steel and cement within the EU ETS. These rules basically seek to set sector specific performance benchmarks and reward top performers. However, the steel sector as a whole will receive the vast majority of its allowances for free in Phase III. Perceptions of competitive vulnerability have been largely based on inherently hypothetical analyses which rely heavily on counterfactual scenario and abatement cost estimates often provided by firms themselves. This paper diverges from these approaches by providing a qualitative assessment of the two key reasons underpinning the competitive vulnerability argument of the EU Steel Companies based on interviews and case study involving the three largest producers of steel within the EU – AcerlorMittal, Corus, and ThyssenKrupp. We find that these arguments provide only partial and weak justifications for competitive loss and discriminatory treatment in the EUETS. This strategy is difficult to counter by governments due to information asymmetry; and it appears to have proved very successful insofar as it has helped the industry to achieve free allocation in Phases I-III of EU ETS by playing up the risk of carbon leakage.

Emission: a simple new technique to correct rainfall estimates from attenuation due to both the radome and heavy rainfall

We present a new technique for correcting errors in radar estimates of rainfall due to attenuation which is based on the fact that any attenuating target will itself emit, and that this emission can be detected by the increased noise level in the radar receiver. The technique is being installed on the UK operational network, and for the first time, allows radome attenuation to be monitored using the increased noise at the higher beam elevations. This attenuation has a large azimuthal dependence but for an old radome can be up to 4 dB for rainfall rates of just 2–4 mm/h. This effect has been neglected in the past, but may be responsible for significant errors in rainfall estimates and in radar calibrations using gauges. The extra noise at low radar elevations provides an estimate of the total path integrated attenuation of nearby storms; this total attenuation can then be used as a constraint for gate-by-gate or polarimetric correction algorithms.

The antithrombotic effect of dextran-40 in man is due to enhanced fibrinolysis in vivo

BACKGROUND: Dextran-40 is effective in reducing postoperative Doppler-detectable embolization in patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA). Dextrans are thought to have antithrombotic and antiplatelet effects. The mode of action is unclear. In rats, dextran blocks uptake of tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) by mannose-binding receptors. Because this would have the effect of enhancing endogenous fibrinolysis, we explored this effect of dextran-40 on fibrinolysis in man. METHODS: Twenty patients undergoing endovascular stenting for abdominal aortic aneurysm were randomized to receive 100 mL of 10% dextran-40 or saline, over 1 hour, during their operation in addition to heparin. Blood samples were taken preoperatively, intraoperatively (immediately after operative procedure), and 24 hours postoperatively. Thrombi were formed in a Chandler loop and used to assess endogenous fibrinolysis over 24 hours, measured as the fall in thrombus weight, and the release of fluorescently labelled fibrinogen from the thrombus. Plasma samples were analyzed for markers of fibrinolysis; plasmin-antiplasmin (PAP), PAI-1, and t-PA, and for functional von Willebrand factor (vWF). Platelet response to thrombin and other agonists was measured by flow cytometry. RESULTS: Thrombi formed ex vivo from the intraoperative blood samples from the dextran-treated patients exhibited significantly greater fibrinolysis vs preoperative samples, seen both as a significantly greater percentage reduction in thrombus weight (from 34.7% to 70.6% reduction) and as an 175% increase in the release of fluorescence (P < .05). Fibrinolysis returned to baseline levels the next day. No change was seen in the saline-treated group. Plasma levels of PAP and PAI-1 increased significantly postoperatively in the dextran-treated group vs the saline group (P < .05). The postoperative level of functional VWF was significantly lower in the dextran-treated group vs controls. A specific reduction occurred in the platelet response to thrombin, but not to other agonists, in the intraoperative samples from the dextran-treated group (11.1% vs 37.1%; P = .022), which was not seen in the controls. CONCLUSIONS: These data are consistent with a rise in plasmin due to dextran blockade of tPA uptake in vivo, leading to enhanced fibrinolysis, cleavage of vWF and of the platelet protease-activated receptor-1 (PAR-1) thrombin receptor. This suggests that dextran exerts a combined therapeutic effect, enhancing endogenous fibrinolysis, whilst also reducing platelet adhesion to vWF and platelet activation by thrombin. The proven antithrombotic efficacy of low-dose dextran in carotid surgery may be applicable to wider therapeutic use.

Changes in reactive stratospheric gases due to a change in Brewer–Dobson circulation: results from a simple model

Amounts of source gases with stratospheric sinks (CFCs, N2O, CH4) are affected by changes in Brewer–Dobson circulation. Source gases and their degradation products are important for atmospheric chemistry and climate. With a simple model, we examine how amounts and lifetimes of source gases and products depend on speed of the circulation. Transient results differ from steady-state and stratospheric results differ from those for stratosphere plus troposphere. Increases in speed increase the stratospheric burden of source gases, but reduce products and reduce total burdens and lifetimes of source gases

Antipathogenic activity of probiotics against Salmonella Typhimurium and Clostridium difficile in anaerobic batch culture systems: is it due to synergies in probiotic mixtures or the specificity of single strains?

Probiotics are currently being investigated for prevention of infections caused by enteric pathogens. The aim of this in vitro study was to evaluate the influence of three single probiotics: Lactobacillus casei NCIMB 30185 (PXN 37), Lactobacillus acidophilus NCIMB 30184 (PXN 35), Bifidobacterium breve NCIMB 30180 (PXN 25) and a probiotic mixture containing the above strains plus twelve other strains belonging to the Lactobacillus, Bifidobacterium, Lactococcus, Streptococcus and Bacillus genera on the survival of Salmonella Typhimurium and Clostridium difficile using pH-controlled anaerobic batch cultures containing mixed fecal bacteria. Changes in relevant bacterial groups and effects of probiotic addition on survival of the two pathogens were assessed over 24 h. Quantitative analysis of bacterial populations revealed that there was a significant increase in lactobacilli and/or bifidobacteria numbers, depending on probiotic addition, compared with the control (no added probiotic). There was also a significant reduction in S. Typhimurium and C. difficile numbers in the presence of certain probiotics compared with controls. Of the probiotic treatments, two single strains namely L. casei NCIMB 30185 (PXN 37), and B. breve NCIMB 30180 (PXN 25) were the most potent in reducing the numbers of S. Typhimurium and C. difficile. In addition, the supplementation with probiotics into the systems influenced some fermentations parameters. Acetate was found in the largest concentrations in all vessels and lactate and formate were generally detected in higher amounts in vessels with probiotic addition compared to controls.

Gender differences in ultimatum games: despite rather than due to risk attitudes

We analyze experimental data obtained from an ultimatum game framed as a situation of employee-employer negotiation over salaries. Parallel to this, we elicit subjects' risk attitudes. In the existing literature, it has often been conjectured that gender differences in strategic environments are partly due to differences in risky decision making. Our evidence suggests that both gender and risk-related effects co-exist in ultimatum bargaining. However, differences in risk attitudes cannot explain gender effects in ultimatum bargaining.

Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change

Targets for stabilizing climate change are often based on considerations of the impacts of different levels of global warming, usually assessing the time of reaching a particular level of warming. However, some aspects of the Earth system, such as global mean temperatures1 and sea level rise due to thermal expansion2 or the melting of large ice sheets3, continue to respond long after the stabilization of radiative forcing. Here we use a coupled climate–vegetation model to show that in turn the terrestrial biosphere shows significant inertia in its response to climate change. We demonstrate that the global terrestrial biosphere can continue to change for decades after climate stabilization. We suggest that ecosystems can be committed to long-term change long before any response is observable: for example, we find that the risk of significant loss of forest cover in Amazonia rises rapidly for a global mean temperature rise above 2 °C. We conclude that such committed ecosystem changes must be considered in the definition of dangerous climate change, and subsequent policy development to avoid it.

Electron acceleration and parallel electric fields due to kinetic Alfvén waves in plasma with similar thermal and Alfvén speeds

We investigate electron acceleration due to shear Alfven waves in a collissionless plasma for plasma parameters typical of 4–5RE radial distance from the Earth along auroral field lines. Recent observational work has motivated this study, which explores the plasma regime where the thermal velocity of the electrons is similar to the Alfven speed of the plasma, encouraging Landau resonance for electrons in the wave fields. We use a self-consistent kinetic simulation model to follow the evolution of the electrons as they interact with a short-duration wave pulse, which allows us to determine the parallel electric field of the shear Alfven wave due to both electron inertia and electron pressure effects. The simulation demonstrates that electrons can be accelerated to keV energies in a modest amplitude sub-second period wave. We compare the parallel electric field obtained from the simulation with those provided by fluid approximations.

Quantifying errors due to frequency changes and target location uncertainty for radar refractivity retrievals

Radar refractivity retrievals can capture near-surface humidity changes, but noisy phase changes of the ground clutter returns limit the accuracy for both klystron- and magnetron-based systems. Observations with a C-band (5.6 cm) magnetron weather radar indicate that the correction for phase changes introduced by local oscillator frequency changes leads to refractivity errors no larger than 0.25 N units: equivalent to a relative humidity change of only 0.25% at 20°C. Requested stable local oscillator (STALO) frequency changes were accurate to 0.002 ppm based on laboratory measurements. More serious are the random phase change errors introduced when targets are not at the range-gate center and there are changes in the transmitter frequency (ΔfTx) or the refractivity (ΔN). Observations at C band with a 2-μs pulse show an additional 66° of phase change noise for a ΔfTx of 190 kHz (34 ppm); this allows the effect due to ΔN to be predicted. Even at S band with klystron transmitters, significant phase change noise should occur when a large ΔN develops relative to the reference period [e.g., ~55° when ΔN = 60 for the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radars]. At shorter wavelengths (e.g., C and X band) and with magnetron transmitters in particular, refractivity retrievals relative to an earlier reference period are even more difficult, and operational retrievals may be restricted to changes over shorter (e.g., hourly) periods of time. Target location errors can be reduced by using a shorter pulse or identified by a new technique making alternate measurements at two closely spaced frequencies, which could even be achieved with a dual–pulse repetition frequency (PRF) operation of a magnetron transmitter.

Decreased monsoon precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere due to anthropogenic aerosols

The Northern Hemisphere monsoons are an integral component of Earth's hydrological cycle and affect the lives of billions of people. Observed precipitation in the monsoon regions underwent substantial changes during the second half of the 20th century, with drying from the 1950s to mid-1980s and increasing precipitation in recent decades. Modeling studies suggest anthropogenic aerosols has been a key factor driving changes in tropical and monsoon precipitation. Here we apply detection and attribution methods to determine whether observed changes are driven by human influences using fingerprints of individual forcings (i.e. greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosol and natural) derived from climate models. The results show that the observed changes can only be explained when including the influence of anthropogenic aerosols, even after accounting for internal climate variability. Anthropogenic aerosol, not greenhouse gas or natural forcing, has been the dominant influence on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation over the second half of the 20th century.

Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993-2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs

Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic.

Climatic impacts of land-use change due to crop yield increases and a universal carbon tax from a scenario model*

Future land cover will have a significant impact on climate and is strongly influenced by the extent of agricultural land use. Differing assumptions of crop yield increase and carbon pricing mitigation strategies affect projected expansion of agricultural land in future scenarios. In the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the carbon effects of these land cover changes are included, although the biogeophysical effects are not. The afforestation in RCP4.5 has important biogeophysical impacts on climate, in addition to the land carbon changes, which are directly related to the assumption of crop yield increase and the universal carbon tax. To investigate the biogeophysical climatic impact of combinations of agricultural crop yield increases and carbon pricing mitigation, five scenarios of land-use change based on RCP4.5 are used as inputs to an earth system model [Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES)]. In the scenario with the greatest increase in agricultural land (as a result of no increase in crop yield and no climate mitigation) there is a significant -0.49 K worldwide cooling by 2100 compared to a control scenario with no land-use change. Regional cooling is up to -2.2 K annually in northeastern Asia. Including carbon feedbacks from the land-use change gives a small global cooling of -0.067 K. This work shows that there are significant impacts from biogeophysical land-use changes caused by assumptions of crop yield and carbon mitigation, which mean that land carbon is not the whole story. It also elucidates the potential conflict between cooling from biogeophysical climate effects of land-use change and wider environmental aims.

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1, 2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4, 5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3, 7, 8, 9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13, 14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.