Ionospheric ion upwelling in the wake of flux transfer events at the dayside magnetopause

The effects of flux transfer events (FTE) on the dayside auroral ionosphere are studied, using a simple twin-vortex model of induced ionospheric plasma flow. It is shown that the predicted and observed velocities of these flows are sufficient to drive nonthermal plasma in the F region, not only within the newly opened flux tube of the FTE, but also on the closed, or "old" open, field lines around it. In fact, with the expected poleward neutral wind, the plasma is more highly nonthermal on the flanks of, but outside, the open flux tube: EISCAT observations indicate that plasma is indeed driven into nonthermal distributions in these regions. The nonthermal plasma is thereby subject to additional upforce due to the resulting ion temperature anisotropy and transient expansion due to Joule heating and also to ion accelerations associated with the FTE field aligned current system. Any upflows produced on closed field lines in the vicinity of the FTE are effectively bunched-up in the "wake" of the FTE. Observations from the AMPTE-UKS satellite at the magnetopause reveal ion upflows of energy ∼100 eV flowing out from the ionosphere on closed field lines which are only found in the wake of the FTE. Such flows are also only found shortly after two, out of all the FTEs observed by AMPTE-UKS. The outflow from the ionosphere is two orders of magnitude greater than predicted for the "classical" polar wind. It is shown that such ionospheric ion flows are only expected in association with FTEs on the magnetopause which are well removed from the sub-solar point-either towards dusk or, as in the UKS example discussed here, towards dawn. It is suggested that such ionospheric ions will only be observed if the center of the FTE open flux tube passes very close to the satellite. Consequently, we conclude the ion upflows presented here are probably driven by the second of two possible source FTEs and are observed at the satellite with a lag after the FTE which is less than their time-of-flight.

A novel transport assimilation method for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26°N

One of the prerequisites for achieving skill in decadal climate prediction is to initialize and predict the circulation in the Atlantic Ocean successfully. The RAPID array measures the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) at 26°N. Here we develop a method to include these observations in the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). The proposed method uses covariances of overturning transport anomalies at 26°N with ocean temperature and salinity anomalies throughout the ocean to create the density structure necessary to reproduce the observed transport anomaly. Assimilating transport alone in this way effectively reproduces the observed transport anomalies at 26°N and is better than using basin-wide temperature and salinity observations alone. However, when the transport observations are combined with in situ temperature and salinity observations in the analysis, the transport is not currently reproduced so well. The reasons for this are investigated using pseudo-observations in a twin experiment framework. Sensitivity experiments show that the MOC on monthly time-scales, at least in the HadCM3 model, is modulated by a mechanism where non-local density anomalies appear to be more important for transport variability at 26°N than local density gradients.

The equivalent-weights particle filter in a high-dimensional system

In general, particle filters need large numbers of model runs in order to avoid filter degeneracy in high-dimensional systems. The recently proposed, fully nonlinear equivalent-weights particle filter overcomes this requirement by replacing the standard model transition density with two different proposal transition densities. The first proposal density is used to relax all particles towards the high-probability regions of state space as defined by the observations. The crucial second proposal density is then used to ensure that the majority of particles have equivalent weights at observation time. Here, the performance of the scheme in a high, 65 500 dimensional, simplified ocean model is explored. The success of the equivalent-weights particle filter in matching the true model state is shown using the mean of just 32 particles in twin experiments. It is of particular significance that this remains true even as the number and spatial variability of the observations are changed. The results from rank histograms are less easy to interpret and can be influenced considerably by the parameter values used. This article also explores the sensitivity of the performance of the scheme to the chosen parameter values and the effect of using different model error parameters in the truth compared with the ensemble model runs.

Exploring strategies for coupled 4D-Var data assimilation using an idealised atmosphere-ocean model

Operational forecasting centres are currently developing data assimilation systems for coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Strongly coupled assimilation, in which a single assimilation system is applied to a coupled model, presents significant technical and scientific challenges. Hence weakly coupled assimilation systems are being developed as a first step, in which the coupled model is used to compare the current state estimate with observations, but corrections to the atmosphere and ocean initial conditions are then calculated independently. In this paper we provide a comprehensive description of the different coupled assimilation methodologies in the context of four dimensional variational assimilation (4D-Var) and use an idealised framework to assess the expected benefits of moving towards coupled data assimilation. We implement an incremental 4D-Var system within an idealised single column atmosphere-ocean model. The system has the capability to run both strongly and weakly coupled assimilations as well as uncoupled atmosphere or ocean only assimilations, thus allowing a systematic comparison of the different strategies for treating the coupled data assimilation problem. We present results from a series of identical twin experiments devised to investigate the behaviour and sensitivities of the different approaches. Overall, our study demonstrates the potential benefits that may be expected from coupled data assimilation. When compared to uncoupled initialisation, coupled assimilation is able to produce more balanced initial analysis fields, thus reducing initialisation shock and its impact on the subsequent forecast. Single observation experiments demonstrate how coupled assimilation systems are able to pass information between the atmosphere and ocean and therefore use near-surface data to greater effect. We show that much of this benefit may also be gained from a weakly coupled assimilation system, but that this can be sensitive to the parameters used in the assimilation.

Direct observations of the full Dungey convection cycle in the polar ionosphere for southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions

Tracking the formation and full evolution of polar cap ionization patches in the polar ionosphere, we directly observe the full Dungey convection cycle for southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions. This enables us to study how the Dungey cycle influences the patches’ evolution. The patches were initially segmented from the dayside storm enhanced density plume at the equatorward edge of the cusp, by the expansion and contraction of the polar cap boundary due to pulsed dayside magnetopause reconnection, as indicated by in situ Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms(THEMIS) observations. Convection led to the patches entering the polar cap and being transported antisunward, while being continuously monitored by the globally distributed arrays of GPS receivers and Super Dual Auroral Radar Network radars. Changes in convection over time resulted in the patches following a range of trajectories, each of which differed somewhat from the classical twin-cell convection streamlines. Pulsed nightside reconnection, occurring as part of the magnetospheric substorm cycle, modulated the exit of the patches from the polar cap, as confirmed by coordinated observations of the magnetometer at Tromsø and European Incoherent Scatter Tromsø UHF radar. After exiting the polar cap, the patches broke up into a number of plasma blobs and returned sunward in the auroral return flow of the dawn and/or dusk convection cell. The full circulation time was about 3 h.

Time-lapse geophysical investigations over known archaeological features using electrical resistivity imaging and earth resistance

Electrical methods of geophysical survey are known to produce results that are hard to predict at different times of the year, and under differing weather conditions. This is a problem which can lead to misinterpretation of archaeological features under investigation. The dynamic relationship between a ‘natural’ soil matrix and an archaeological feature is a complex one, which greatly affects the success of the feature’s detection when using active electrical methods of geophysical survey. This study has monitored the gradual variation of measured resistivity over a selection of study areas. By targeting difficult to find, and often ‘missing’ electrical anomalies of known archaeological features, this study has increased the understanding of both the detection and interpretation capabilities of such geophysical surveys. A 16 month time-lapse study over 4 archaeological features has taken place to investigate the aforementioned detection problem across different soils and environments. In addition to the commonly used Twin-Probe earth resistance survey, electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) and quadrature electro-magnetic induction (EMI) were also utilised to explore the problem. Statistical analyses have provided a novel interpretation, which has yielded new insights into how the detection of archaeological features is influenced by the relationship between the target feature and the surrounding ‘natural’ soils. The study has highlighted both the complexity and previous misconceptions around the predictability of the electrical methods. The analysis has confirmed that each site provides an individual and nuanced situation, the variation clearly relating to the composition of the soils (particularly pore size) and the local weather history. The wide range of reasons behind survey success at each specific study site has been revealed. The outcomes have shown that a simplistic model of seasonality is not universally applicable to the electrical detection of archaeological features. This has led to the development of a method for quantifying survey success, enabling a deeper understanding of the unique way in which each site is affected by the interaction of local environmental and geological conditions.

Differences between the CME fronts tracked by an expert, an automated algorithm, and the Solar Stormwatch project

Observations from the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments aboard the twin STEREO spacecraft have enabled the compilation of several catalogues of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), each characterizing the propagation of CMEs through the inner heliosphere. Three such catalogues are the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL)-HI event list, the Solar Stormwatch CME catalogue, and, presented here, the J-tracker catalogue. Each catalogue uses a different method to characterize the location of CME fronts in the HI images: manual identification by an expert, the statistical reduction of the manual identifications of many citizen scientists, and an automated algorithm. We provide a quantitative comparison of the differences between these catalogues and techniques, using 51 CMEs common to each catalogue. The time-elongation profiles of these CME fronts are compared, as are the estimates of the CME kinematics derived from application of three widely used single-spacecraft-fitting techniques. The J-tracker and RAL-HI profiles are most similar, while the Solar Stormwatch profiles display a small systematic offset. Evidence is presented that these differences arise because the RAL-HI and J-tracker profiles follow the sunward edge of CME density enhancements, while Solar Stormwatch profiles track closer to the antisunward (leading) edge. We demonstrate that the method used to produce the time-elongation profile typically introduces more variability into the kinematic estimates than differences between the various single-spacecraft-fitting techniques. This has implications for the repeatability and robustness of these types of analyses, arguably especially so in the context of space weather forecasting, where it could make the results strongly dependent on the methods used by the forecaster.

Examining the relationships between Holocene climate change, hydrology, and human society in Ireland

This thesis explores human-environment interactions during the Mid-Late Holocene in raised bogs in central Ireland. The raised bogs of central Ireland are widely-recognised for their considerable palaeoenvironmental and archaeological resources: research over the past few decades has established the potential for such sites to preserve sensitive records of Holocene climatic variability expressed as changes in bog surface wetness (BSW); meanwhile archaeological investigations over the past century have uncovered hundreds of peatland archaeological features dating from the Neolithic through to the Post-Medieval period including wooden trackways, platforms, and deposits of high-status metalwork. Previous studies have attempted to explore the relationship between records of past environmental change and the occurrence of peatland archaeological sites reaching varying conclusions. More recently, environmentally-deterministic models of human-environment interaction in Irish raised bogs at the regional scale have been explicitly tested leading to the conclusion that there is no relationship between BSW and past human activity. These relationships are examined in more detail on a site-by-site basis in this thesis. To that end, testate amoebae-derived BSW records from nine milled former raised bogs in central Ireland were produced from sites with known and dated archaeological records. Relationships between BSW records and environmental conditions within the study area were explored through both the development of a new central Ireland testate amoebae transfer function and through comparisons between recent BSW records and instrumental weather data. Compilation of BSW records from the nine fossil study sites show evidence both for climate forcing, particularly during 3200-2400 cal BP, as well as considerable inter-site variability. Considerable inter-site variability was also evident in the archaeological records of the same sites. Whilst comparisons between BSW and archaeological records do not show a consistent linear relationship, examination of records on a site-by-site basis were shown to reveal interpretatively important contingent relationships. It is concluded therefore, that future research on human-environment interactions should focus on individual sites and should utilise theoretical approaches from the humanities in order to avoid the twin pitfalls of masking important local patterns of change, and of environmental determinism.

Of tropics, prisons and bicycles: a conversation with David Arnold

David Arnold who retired this year as the Professor of Asian and Global History at the University of Warwick remains one of the most prolific historians of colonial medicine and modern South Asia. A founding member of the subaltern studies collective, he is considered widely as a pioneer in the histories of colonial medicine, environment, penology, hunger and famines within South Asian studies and beyond. In this interview he recalls his formative inspirations, ideological motivations and reflects critically on his earlier works, explaining various shifts as well as map- ping the possible course of future work. He talks at length about his forthcoming works on everyday technology, food and monsoon Asia. Finally, he shares with us his desire of initiating work on an ambitious project about the twin themes of poison and poverty in South Asian his- tory, beginning with the Bengal famine in the late eighteenth century and ending with the Bhopal gas tragedy of the early 1980s. This conversation provides insights into the ways in which the field of medical history in modern South Asia has been shaped over the past three decades through interactions with broader discussions on agency, resistance, power, everydayness, subal- tern studies, global and spatial histories. It hints further at the newer directions which are being opened up by such persisting intellectual entanglements.

Modulation of potassium channels inhibits bunyavirus infection

Bunyaviruses are considered to be emerging pathogens facilitated by the segmented nature of their genome that allows reassortment between different species to generate novel viruses with altered pathogenicity. Bunyaviruses are transmitted via a diverse range of arthropod vectors, as well as rodents, and have established a global disease range with massive importance in healthcare, animal welfare and economics. There are no vaccines or anti-viral therapies available to treat human bunyavirus infections and so development of new anti-viral strategies is urgently required. Bunyamwera virus (BUNV; genus Orthobunyavirus) is the model bunyavirus, sharing aspects of its molecular and cellular biology with all Bunyaviridae family members. Here, we show for the first time that BUNV activates and requires cellular potassium (K+) channels to infect cells. Time of addition assays using K+ channel modulating agents demonstrated that K+ channel function is critical to events shortly after virus entry but prior to viral RNA synthesis/replication. A similar K+ channel dependence was identified for other bunyaviruses namely Schmallenberg virus (Orthobunyavirus) as well as the more distantly related Hazara virus (Nairovirus). Using a rational pharmacological screening regimen, twin-pore domain K+ channels (K2P) were identified as the K+ channel family mediating BUNV K+ channel dependence. As several K2P channel modulators are currently in clinical use, our work suggests they may represent a new and safe drug class for the treatment of potentially lethal bunyavirus disease.

A joint state and parameter estimation scheme for nonlinear dynamical systems

We present a novel algorithm for concurrent model state and parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical systems. The new scheme uses ideas from three dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) and the extended Kalman filter (EKF) together with the technique of state augmentation to estimate uncertain model parameters alongside the model state variables in a sequential filtering system. The method is relatively simple to implement and computationally inexpensive to run for large systems with relatively few parameters. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method via a series of identical twin experiments with three simple dynamical system models. The scheme is able to recover the parameter values to a good level of accuracy, even when observational data are noisy. We expect this new technique to be easily transferable to much larger models.

The impact of westerly wind bursts and ocean initial state on the development, and diversity of El Niño events

Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that occur in the western tropical Pacific are believed to play an important role in the development of El Niño events. Here, following the study of Lengaigne et al. (Clim Dyn 23(6):601–620, 2004), we conduct numerical simulations in which we reexamine the response of the climate system to an observed wind burst added to a coupled general circulation model. Two sets of twin ensemble experiments are conducted (each set has control and perturbed experiments). In the first set, the initial ocean heat content of the system is higher than the model climatology (recharged), while in the second set it is nearly normal (neutral). For the recharged state, in the absence of WWBs, a moderate El Niño with a maximum warming in the central Pacific (CP) develops in about a year. In contrast, for the neutral state, there develops a weak La Niña. However, when the WWB is imposed, the situation dramatically changes: the recharged state slides into an El Niño with a maximum warming in the eastern Pacific, while the neutral set produces a weak CP El Niño instead of previous La Niña conditions. The different response of the system to the exact same perturbations is controlled by the initial state of the ocean and the subsequent ocean–atmosphere interactions involving the interplay between the eastward shift of the warm pool and the warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific. Consequently, the observed diversity of El Niño, including the occurrence of extreme events, may depend on stochastic atmospheric processes, modulating El Niño properties within a broad continuum.

A reappraisal of Baskerville's Greek types

Ιn the eighteenth century the printing of Greek texts continued to be central to scholarship and discourse. The typography of Greek texts could be characterised as a continuation of French models from the sixteenth century, with a gradual dilution of the complexity of ligatures and abbreviations, mostly through printers in the Low Countries. In Britain, Greek printing was dominated by the university presses, which reproduced conservatively the continental models – exemplified by Oxford's Fell types, which were Dutch adaptations of earlier French models. Hindsight allows us to identify a meaningful development in the Greek types cut by Alexander Wilson for the Foulis Press in Glasgow, but we can argue that in the middle of the eighteenth century Baskerville was considering Greek printing the typographic environment was ripe for a new style of Greek types. The opportunity to cut the types for a New Testament (in an twin edition that included a generous octavo and a large quarto version) would seem perfect for showcasing Baskerville's capacity for innovation. His Greek type maintained the cursive ductus of earlier models, but abandoned complex ligatures and any hint of scribal flourish. He homogenised the modulation of the letter strokes and the treatment of terminals, and normalised the horizontal alignments of all letters. Although the strokes are in some letters too delicate, the narrow set of the style composes a consistent, uniform texture that is a clean break from contemporaneous models. The argument is made that this is the first Greek typeface that can be described as fully typographic in the context of the technology of the time. It sets a pattern that was to be followed, without acknowledgement, by Richard Porson nearly a century and a half later. The typeface received little praise by typographic historians, and was condemned by Victor Scholderer in his retrospective of Greek typography. A survey of typeface reviews in the surrounding decades establishes that the commentators were mostly reproducing the views of an arbitrary typographic orthodoxy, for which only types with direct references to Renaissance models were acceptable. In these comments we detect a bias against someone considered an arriviste in the scholarly printing establishment, as well as a conservative attitude to typographic innovation.