Sea level extremes at the coasts of China

Hourly sea level records from 1954 to 2012 at 20 tide gauges at and adjacent to the Chinese coasts are used to analyze extremes in sea level and in tidal residual. Tides and tropical cyclones determine the spatial distribution of sea level maxima. Tidal residual maxima are predominantly determined by tropical cyclones. The 50 year return level is found to be sensitive to the number of extreme events used in the estimation. This is caused by the small number of tropical cyclone events happening each year which lead to other local storm events included thus significantly affecting the estimates. Significant increase in sea level extremes is found with trends in the range between 2.0 and 14.1 mm yr−1. The trends are primarily driven by changes in median sea level but also linked with increases in tidal amplitudes at three stations. Tropical cyclones cause significant interannual variations in the extremes. The interannual variability in the sea level extremes is also influenced by the changes in median sea level at the north and by the 18.6 year nodal cycle at the South China Sea. Neither of PDO and ENSO is found to be an indicator of changes in the size of extremes, but ENSO appears to regulate the number of tropical cyclones that reach the Chinese coasts. Global mean atmospheric temperature appears to be a good descriptor of the interannual variability of tidal residual extremes induced by tropical cyclones but the trend in global temperature is inconsistent with the lack of trend in the residuals.

Speleothems as sensitive recorders of volcanic eruptions - the Bronze Age Minoan eruption recorded in a stalagmite from Turkey

Mounting evidence exists that variations in sulphur content in stalagmites are closely linked to changes in volcanic or anthropogenic atmospheric sulphur. The strong dependency of sulphur on soil pH and ecosystem storage, however, can result in a delay of several years to decades in the registration of volcanic eruptions and anthropogenic emissions by stalagmites. Here we present synchrotron-radiation based trace element analysis performed on a precisely-dated section of a stalagmite from Sofular Cave in Northern Turkey. As this section covers the time interval of the intensively studied Minoan volcanic eruption between 1600 and 1650 BC, we can test whether this vigorous eruption can be traced in a stalagmite. Of all measured trace elements, only bromine shows a clear short-lived peak at 1621±251621±25 BC, whereas sulphur and molybdenum show peaks later at 1617±251617±25 and 1589±251589±25 respectively. We suggest that all trace element peaks are related to the Minoan eruption, whereas the observed phasing of bromine, molybdenum and sulphur is related to differences in their retention rates in the soil above Sofular Cave. For the first time, we can show that bromine appears to be an ideal volcanic tracer in stalagmites, as it is a prominent volatile component in volcanic eruptions, can be easily leached in soils and rapidly transferred from the atmosphere through the soil and bedrock into the cave and stalagmite respectively. Highly resolved oxygen and carbon isotope profiles indicate that the Minoan eruption had no detectable climatic and environmental impact in Northern Turkey.

Sparta and the English Republic

In 1659-60, James Harrington and Henry Stubbe, two republican authors, engaged in a bad-tempered pamphlet debate about the constitution of classical Sparta. This took place in the context of political collapse after the fall of the Cromwellian Protectorate, as republicans desperately attempted to devise safeguards which could prevent the return of monarchy. Questions of constitutional form were not always at the forefront of 1650s English republicanism, but Harrington’s ideal constitution of ‘Oceana’ brought these questions to the fore in 1659’s discussions. Sparta formed a key plank of the ‘ancient prudence’ which supported Harrington’s theory, and like Stubbe he drew on Nicolaus Cragius’ De Republica Lacedaemoniorum (1593) for evidence, and was attracted to some of the more apparently ‘aristocratic’ elements of the Spartan constitution. However, classical texts and modern scholarly authority, such as Cragius’, were not the only ingredients in the English version of the ‘classical republican’ tradition; sixteenth- and seventeenth-century political thinkers and current exigencies also shaped Harrington and Stubbe’s arguments. Both Harrington and Stubbe ended up challenging the scholarly and ancient consensus that Sparta was an aristocracy or mixed polity, Harrington reinterpreting it to assimilate it to ‘democracy’, and Stubbe attempting to rehabilitate a model of benign ‘oligarchy’.

Regulation of phospholipases C and D in rat ventricular myocytes: stimulation by endothelin-1, bradykinin and phenylephrine.

The physiological activator of protein kinase C (PKC), diacylglycerol, is formed by hydrolysis of phosphoinositides (PI) by phospholipase C (PLC) or phosphatidylcholine by phospholipase D (PLD). We have measured activation of these phospholipases by endothelin-1 (ET-1), bradykinin (BK), or phenylephrine (PE) in ventricular myocytes cultured from neonatal rat. The stimulation of PI hydrolysis after 10 min by 0.1 microM ET-1 (about 12-fold) was much greater than for BK or PE (each about four-fold), and did not correlate with translocation of nPKC delta or nPKC epsilon (Clerk A. Bogoyevitch MA. Andersson MB. Sugden PH, 1994. J Biol Chem 269: 32848-32857: Clerk A, Gillespie-Brown J, Fuller SJ, Sugden PH, 1996. Biochem J 317: 109-118). However, ET-1 and BK stimulated a similar rapid increase in [3H]InsP, formation (< 30 s), which was much greater than that seen with PE. This early phase correlated with PKC translocation. Acute or chronic exposure to 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate (TPA) or treatment with Ro-31-8220 showed that the stimulation of PI hydrolysis by PE, but not ET-1 or BK, was inhibited by activation of PKC. Furthermore, ET-1 and BK heterologously desensitized the stimulation of PI hydrolysis by PE, ET-1 or BK homologously uncoupled their own receptors from [3H]InsP3 formation, but there was no evidence of heterologous desensitization with these two agonists. Anomalously, chronic exposure to TPA increased the stimulation of PI hydrolysis by BK, but this probably resulted from an increase in BK receptor density. PLD was also rapidly activated by TPA. ET-1, BK or PE. Experiments with Ro-31-8220 showed that the stimulation of PLD by ET-1 and BK was mediated through activation of PKC. We discuss the characteristics of the activation of PI hydrolysis and PLD by ET-1, BK, and PE with respect to the translocation of PKC.

Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge

Skillful sea ice forecasts from days to years ahead are becoming increasingly important for the operation and planning of human activities in the Arctic. Here we analyze the potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge in six climate models. We introduce the integrated ice-edge error (IIEE), a user-relevant verification metric defined as the area where the forecast and the “truth” disagree on the ice concentration being above or below 15%. The IIEE lends itself to decomposition into an absolute extent error, corresponding to the common sea ice extent error, and a misplacement error. We find that the often-neglected misplacement error makes up more than half of the climatological IIEE. In idealized forecast ensembles initialized on 1 July, the IIEE grows faster than the absolute extent error. This means that the Arctic sea ice edge is less predictable than sea ice extent, particularly in September, with implications for the potential skill of end-user relevant forecasts.