Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much ( or too little) greenhouse warming by too much ( or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater ( at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr(-1) increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century(-1) (5-95 percentiles).

A new Snow-SVAT to simulate the accumulation and ablation of seasonal snow cover beneath a forest canopy

A new snow-soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (Snow-SVAT) scheme, which simulates the accumulation and ablation of the snow cover beneath a forest canopy, is presented. The model was formulated by coupling a canopy optical and thermal radiation model to a physically-based multi-layer snow model. This canopy radiation model is physically-based yet requires few parameters, so can be used when extensive in-situ field measurements are not available. Other forest effects such as the reduction of wind speed, interception of snow on the canopy and the deposition of litter were incorporated within this combined model, SNOWCAN, which was tested with data taken as part of the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) international collaborative experiment. Snow depths beneath four different canopy types and at an open site were simulated. Agreement between observed and simulated snow depths was generally good, with correlation coefficients ranging between r^2=0.94 and r^2=0.98 for all sites where automatic measurements were available. However, the simulated date of total snowpack ablation generally occurred later than the observed date. A comparison between simulated solar radiation and limited measurements of sub-canopy radiation at one site indicates that the model simulates the sub-canopy downwelling solar radiation early in the season to within measurement uncertainty.

A refined quartic forcefield for acetylene: accurate calculation of the vibrational spectrum

It is now possible to calculate the nine-dimensional rovibrational wavefunctions of sequentially bonded four-atom molecules variationally without dynamical approximation. In the case of HCCH, the simplest such molecule, many hundreds of rovibrational (J = 0, 1, 2) levels can be converged to better than 1.5 cm −1. Variational calculations of this kind are used here systematically to refine the well-known quartic valence-coordinate forcefleld of Strey and Mills [J.Mol. Spectrosc.59, 103-115 (1976)] against experimental term values up to three C-H stretch quanta for the principal and two deuterated isotopomers, yielding a new surface that reproduces the energies of all the known Σ, Π, and Δ states of these species up to the energy of two C-H stretch quanta with an rms error of 3 cm−1 . The refined forcefield is used to study the resonances associated with the accidental degeneracies (ν2 + ν4 + ν5, ν3) and (ν2 + 2ν5, ν1) in the principal isotopomer, leading to a clarification of the assignment of she experimentally detected states in the 2ν3 and 3ν3, polyads, and to the finding that vibrational Coriolis (kinetic energy) terms, rather than quartic anharmonicities in the potential, are the primary cause of the resonant interactions. Using a new cubic ab initio electric dipole field to calculate IR absorption coefficients, 24 undetected Σ and Π states of 1H12C12C1H and 5 undetected Σ states of D12C12CD are identified as candidates for experimental study, and their calculated energies and assignments are given.

The assignment of ν2 and ν4 of SO3

Three experiments have been performed to resolve an uncertainty in the assignment of ν2 and ν4 for SO3: (i) the gas phase Raman spectrum has been measured; (ii) the infrared active combination band ν3 + ν4 has been measured; (iii) a band contour calculation has been performed taking account of the ℓ-type resonance in ν4 and a strong Coriolis resonance between ν2 and ν4. These experiments establish beyond any doubt that ν2 lies at about 497.5 cm−1 and ν4 lies at about 530.2 cm−1. The contour calculation also shows that the Coriolis resonance gives rise to a positive intensity perturbation.

Influence of fibrolytic enzymes on the hydrolysis and fermentation of pure cellulose and xylan by mixed ruminal microorganisms in vitro

A series of in vitro studies was, conducted to determine the effects of adding a commercial enzyme product on the hydrolysis and fermentation of cellulose, xylan, and a mixture (1:1 wt/wt) of both. The enzyme product (Liquicell 2500, Specialty Enzymes and Biochemicals, Fresno, CA) was derived from Trichoderma reesei and contained mainly xylanase and cellulase activities. Addition of enzyme (0.5, 2.55 and 5.1 muL/g of DM) in the absence of ruminal fluid increased (P < 0.001) the release of reducing sugars from xylan and the mixture after 20 h of incubation at 20degreesC. Incubations with ruminal fluid showed that enzyme (0.5 and 2.55 muL/g of DM) increased (P < 0.05) the initial (up to 6 h) xylanase, endoglucanase, and beta-D-glucosidase activities in the liquid fraction by an average of 85%. Xylanase and endoglucanase activities in the solid fraction also were increased (P < 0.05) by enzyme addition, indicating an increase in fibrolytic activity due to ruminal microbes. Gas production over 96 h of incubation was determined using a gas pressure measurement technique. Incremental levels of enzyme increased (P < 0.05) the rate of gas production of all substrates, suggesting that fermentation of cellulose and xylan was enzyme-limited. However, adding the enzyme at levels higher than 2.55 muL/g of DM failed to further increase the rate of gas production, indicating that the maximal level of stimulation was already achieved at lower enzyme concentrations. It was concluded that enzymes enhanced the fermentation of cellulose and xylan by a combination of pre- and postincubation effects (i.e., an increase in the release of reducing sugars during the pretreatment phase and an increase in the hydrolytic activity of the liquid and solid fractions of the ruminal fluid), which was reflected in a higher rate of fermentation.

Statistical design and analysis of pharmacogenetic trials

Pharmacogenetic trials investigate the effect of genotype on treatment response. When there are two or more treatment groups and two or more genetic groups, investigation of gene-treatment interactions is of key interest. However, calculation of the power to detect such interactions is complicated because this depends not only on the treatment effect size within each genetic group, but also on the number of genetic groups, the size of each genetic group, and the type of genetic effect that is both present and tested for. The scale chosen to measure the magnitude of an interaction can also be problematic, especially for the binary case. Elston et al. proposed a test for detecting the presence of gene-treatment interactions for binary responses, and gave appropriate power calculations. This paper shows how the same approach can also be used for normally distributed responses. We also propose a method for analysing and performing sample size calculations based on a generalized linear model (GLM) approach. The power of the Elston et al. and GLM approaches are compared for the binary and normal case using several illustrative examples. While more sensitive to errors in model specification than the Elston et al. approach, the GLM approach is much more flexible and in many cases more powerful. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Paraben esters: review of recent studies of endocrine toxicity, absorption, esterase and human exposure, and discussion of potential human health risks

This toxicology update reviews research over the past four years since publication in 2004 of the first measurement of intact esters of p-hydroxybenzoic acid (parabens) in human breast cancer tissues, and the suggestion that their presence in the human body might originate from topical application of bodycare cosmetics. The presence of intact paraben esters in human body tissues has now been confirmed by independent measurements in human urine, and the ability of parabens to penetrate human skin intact without breakdown by esterases and to be absorbed systemically has been demonstrated through studies not only in vitro but also in vivo using healthy human subjects. Using a wide variety of assay systems in vitro and in vivo, the oestrogen agonist properties of parabens together with their common metabolite (p-hydroxybenzoic acid) have been extensively documented, and, in addition, the parabens have now also been shown to possess androgen antagonist activity, to act as inhibitors of sulfotransferase enzymes and to possess genotoxic activity. With the continued use of parabens in the majority of bodycare cosmetics, there is a need to carry out detailed evaluation of the potential for parabens, together with other oestrogenic and genotoxic co-formulants of bodycare cosmetics, to increase female breast cancer incidence, to interfere with male reproductive functions and to influence development of malignant melanoma which has also recently been shown to be influenced by oestrogenic stimulation. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Detection and enumeration of sulphate-reducing bacteria in estuarine sediments by competitive PCR

The distribution of sulphate-reducing bacteria (SRB) in the sediments of the Colne River estuary, Essex, UK covering different saline concentrations of sediment porewater was investigated by the use of quantitative competitive PCR. Here, we show that a new PCR primer set and a new quantitative method using PCR are useful tools for the detection and the enumeration of SRB in natural environments. A PCR primer set selective for the dissimilatory sulphite reductase gene (dsr) of SRB was designed. PCR amplification using the single set of dsr-specific primers resulted in PCR products of the expected size from all 27 SRB strains tested, including Gram-negative and positive species. Sixty clones derived from sediment DNA using the primers were sequenced and all were closely related with the predicted dsr of SRB. These results indicate that PCR using the newly designed primer set are useful for the selective detection of SRB from a natural sample. This primer set was used to estimate cell numbers by dsr selective competitive PCR using a competitor, which was about 20% shorter than the targeted region of dsr. This procedure was applied to sediment samples from the River Colne estuary, Essex, UK together with simultaneous measurement of in situ rates of sulphate reduction. High densities of SRB ranging from 0.2 - 5.7 × 108 cells ml-1 wet sediment were estimated by the competitive PCR assuming that all SRB have a single copy of dsr. Using these estimates cell specific sulphate reduction rates of 10-17 to 10-15 mol of SO42- cell-1 day-1 were calculated, which is within the range of, or lower than, those previously reported for pure cultures of SRB. Our results show that the newly developed competitive PCR technique targeted to dsr is a powerful tool for rapid and reproducible estimation of SRB numbers in situ and is superior to the use of culture-dependent techniques.

The determination of molecular properties from MULTIMODE with an application to the calculation of Franck-Condon factors for photoionization of CF3 to CF3+

Extensions to the code MULTIMODE to obtain rovibrational wave functions and properties are described. An application of these new capabilities is made to a calculation of the Franck-Condon factors for photoionization of CF3 to CF3+. These calculations make use of a new, full-dimensional ab initio potential energy surface, which is also described here.

A variational method for the calculation of spin-rovibronic energy levels of any triatomic molecule in an electronic triplet state

The triatomic spin-rovibronic variational code RVIB3 has been extended to include the effect of two uncoupled electrons, for both (3)Sigma(-) and (3)Pi (Renner-Teller) electronic states. The spin-orbital-rotational kinetic energy is included in the usual way, via terms (J+L+S). The phenomenological terms AL.S and lambda 2/3(3S(z)(2)) are introduced to reproduce the 3 spin-orbit and spin-spin splittings, respectively. Calculations are performed to evaluate the spin-rovibronic energy levels of CCO (X) over tilde (3) Sigma(-) and CCO (A) over tilde (3) Pi for which the Born-Oppenheimer potentials are derived from high-accuracy ab initio calculations.

Effects of hydrocolloid addition and high pressure processing on the rheological properties and microstructure of a commercial ostrich meat product "Yor" (Thai sausage)

"Yor" is a traditional sausage like product widely consumed in Thailand. Its textures are usually set by steaming, in this experiment ultra-high pressure was used to modify the product. Three types of hydrocolloid; carboxymethylcellulose (CMC), locust bean gum (LBG) and xanthan gum, were added to minced ostrich meat batter at concentration of 0-1% and subjected to high pressure 600 Mpa, 50 degrees C, 40 min. The treated samples were analysed for storage (G) and loss (G '') moduli by dynamic oscillatory testing as well as creep compliance for control stress measurement. Their microstructures using confocal microscopy were also examined. Hydrocolloid addition caused a significant (P < 0.05) decrease in both the G' and G '' moduli. However the loss tangent of all samples remained unchanged. Addition of hydrocolloids led to decreases in the gel network formation but appears to function as surfactant materials during the initial mixing stage as shown by the microstructure. Confocal microscopy suggested that the size of the fat droplets decreased with gum addition. The fat droplets were smallest on the addition of xanthan gum and increased in the order CMC, LBG and no added gum, respectively. Creep parameters of ostrich yors with four levels of xanthan gum addition (0.50%, 0.75%, 1.00% and 1.25%) showed an increase in the instantaneous compliance (J(0)), the retarded compliance (J(1)) and retardation time (lambda(1)) but a decrease in the viscosity (eta(0)) with increasing levels of addition. The results also suggested that the larger deformations used during creep testing might be more helpful in assessing the mechanical properties of the product than the small deformations used in oscillatory rheology. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design and development of a dextrous manipulator

This paper describes a novel method of actuation for robotic hands. The solution employs a Bowden cable routed to each joint. The use of a Bowden cable is shown to be feasible for this purpose, ever, with the changing frictional forces associated with it. This method greatly simplifies the control of the hand by removing the coupling between joints, and provides for direct and accurate translation between the joints and the servo motors driving the cables. The design also allows for two degrees of freedom with the same centre of rotation to be realized in the largest knuckle of each finger; thus biological finger kinematics are more closely emulated.

Ligand dynamics in myoglobin: calculation of infrared spectra for photodissociated NO

We present molecular dynamics simulations of the photodissociated state of MbNO performed at 300 K using a fluctuating charge model for the nitric oxide (NO) ligand. After dissociation, NO is observed to remain mainly in the centre of the distal haem pocket, although some movement towards the primary docking site and the xenon-4 pocket can be seen. We calculate the NO infrared spectrum for the photodissociated ligand within the haem pocket and find a narrow peak in the range 1915-1922 cm(-1). The resulting blue shift of 1 to 8 cm(-1) compared to gas-phase NO is much smaller than the red shifts calculated and observed for carbon monoxide (CO) in Mb. A small splitting, due to NO in the xenon-4 pocket, is also observed. At lower temperatures, the spectra and conformational space explored by the ligand remain largely unchanged, but the electrostatic interactions with residue His64 become increasingly significant in determining the details of the ligand orientation within the distal haem pocket. The investigation of the effect of the L29F mutation reveals significant differences between the behaviour of NO and that of CO, and suggests a coupling between the ligand and the protein dynamics due to the different ligand dipole moments.