The quality of referendum debate: the UK's electoral system referendum in the print media

This paper analyses the quality of debate surrounding the UK’s 2011 electoral reform referendum as represented in the print media. It first considers how debate quality in the context of a referendum campaign may best be conceptualized. It then uses content analysis of media coverage to investigate three aspects of that debate: its quantity; the balance between Yes and No arguments, and the quality of reason-giving. It finds that the quantity of debate was comparable to other recent electoral reform referendums. Coverage was predominantly, but not overwhelmingly, hostile to change. The different indicators of the quality of reason-giving present a mixed picture. The paper concludes by considering how the analysis could be extended through further comparison with other cases.

Excise taxes and commodity promotion bayesian retrieval of the optimum

This article shows how the solution to the promotion problem—the problem of locating the optimal level of advertising in a downstream market—can be derived simply, empirically, and robustly through the application of some simple calculus and Bayesian econometrics. We derive the complete distribution of the level of promotion that maximizes producer surplus and generate recommendations about patterns as well as levels of expenditure that increase net returns. The theory and methods are applied to quarterly series (1978:2S1988:4) on red meats promotion by the Australian Meat and Live-Stock Corporation. A slightly different pattern of expenditure would have profited lamb producers

Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns

Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) through regional climate models (RCMs) potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS) techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1) a simple direct method (DM), (2) quantile-quantile mapping (QM) and (3) a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts) project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

Building resilience in the face of recurring environmental crisis in African Sahel

The present food shortages in the Horn of Africa and the West African Sahel are affecting 31 million people. Such continuing and future crises require that people in the region adapt to an increasing and potentially irreversible global sustainability challenge. Given this situation and that short-term weather and seasonal climate forecasting have limited skill for West Africa, the Rainwatch project illustrates the value of near real-time monitoring and improved communication for the unfavourable 2011 West African monsoon, the resulting severe drought-induced humanitarian impacts continuing into 2012, and their exacerbation by flooding in 2012. Rainwatch is now coupled with a boundary organization (Africa Climate Exchange, AfClix) with the aim of integrating the expertise and actions of relevant institutions, agencies and stakeholders to broker ground-based dialogue to promote resilience in the face of recurring crisis.

Achievement motives and goals: a developmental analysis

Achievement motivation represents the energization and direction of competence-based behavior. Despite the ubiquity and importance of achievement motivation across the life span, developmental research in this area is quite sparse. In this chapter, we discuss developmental considerations and provide an overview of the developmentally relevant research that has been conducted on achievement motivation. Our review focuses specifically on the two most prominent constructs that have emerged in the achievement motivation literature in the past century: Motive dispositions (the need for achievement and fear of failure) and goals (mastery-approach, performance-approach, mastery-avoidance, and performance-avoidance achievement goals). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)(chapter)

Mid-Holocene and glacial-maximum vegetation geography of the northern continents and Africa.

BIOME 6000 is an international project to map vegetation globally at mid-Holocene (6000 14C yr bp) and last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr bp), with a view to evaluating coupled climate-biosphere model results. Primary palaeoecological data are assigned to biomes using an explicit algorithm based on plant functional types. This paper introduces the second Special Feature on BIOME 6000. Site-based global biome maps are shown with data from North America, Eurasia (except South and Southeast Asia) and Africa at both time periods. A map based on surface samples shows the method’s skill in reconstructing present-day biomes. Cold and dry conditions at LGM favoured extensive tundra and steppe. These biomes intergraded in northern Eurasia. Northern hemisphere forest biomes were displaced southward. Boreal evergreen forests (taiga) and temperate deciduous forests were fragmented, while European and East Asian steppes were greatly extended. Tropical moist forests (i.e. tropical rain forest and tropical seasonal forest) in Africa were reduced. In south-western North America, desert and steppe were replaced by open conifer woodland, opposite to the general arid trend but consistent with modelled southward displacement of the jet stream. The Arctic forest limit was shifted slighly north at 6000 14C yr bp in some sectors, but not in all. Northern temperate forest zones were generally shifted greater distances north. Warmer winters as well as summers in several regions are required to explain these shifts. Temperate deciduous forests in Europe were greatly extended, into the Mediterranean region as well as to the north. Steppe encroached on forest biomes in interior North America, but not in central Asia. Enhanced monsoons extended forest biomes in China inland and Sahelian vegetation into the Sahara while the African tropical rain forest was also reduced, consistent with a modelled northward shift of the ITCZ and a more seasonal climate in the equatorial zone. Palaeobiome maps show the outcome of separate, independent migrations of plant taxa in response to climate change. The average composition of biomes at LGM was often markedly different from today. Refugia for the temperate deciduous and tropical rain forest biomes may have existed offshore at LGM, but their characteristic taxa also persisted as components of other biomes. Examples include temperate deciduous trees that survived in cool mixed forest in eastern Europe, and tropical evergreen trees that survived in tropical seasonal forest in Africa. The sequence of biome shifts during a glacial-interglacial cycle may help account for some disjunct distributions of plant taxa. For example, the now-arid Saharan mountains may have linked Mediterranean and African tropical montane floras during enhanced monsoon regimes. Major changes in physical land-surface conditions, shown by the palaeobiome data, have implications for the global climate. The data can be used directly to evaluate the output of coupled atmosphere-biosphere models. The data could also be objectively generalized to yield realistic gridded land-surface maps, for use in sensitivity experiments with atmospheric models. Recent analyses of vegetation-climate feedbacks have focused on the hypothesized positive feedback effects of climate-induced vegetation changes in the Sahara/Sahel region and the Arctic during the mid-Holocene. However, a far wider spectrum of interactions potentially exists and could be investigated, using these data, both for 6000 14C yr bp and for the LGM.

In silico identification and three-dimensional modelling of the missense mutation in ADAMTS2 in a sheep flock with dermatosparaxis

Background Dermatosparaxis (Ehlers–Danlos syndrome in humans) is characterized by extreme fragility of the skin. It is due to the lack of mature collagen caused by a failure in the enzymatic processing of procollagen I. We investigated the condition in a commercial sheep flock. Hypothesis/Objectives Mutations in the ADAM metallopeptidase with thrombospondin type 1 motif, 2 (ADAMTS2) locus, are involved in the development of dermatosparaxis in humans, cattle and the dorper sheep breed; consequently, this locus was investigated in the flock. Animals A single affected lamb, its dam, the dam of a second affected lamb and the rams in the flock were studied. Methods DNA was purified from blood, PCR primers were used to detect parts of the ADAMS2 gene and nucleotide sequencing was performed using Sanger's procedure. Skin samples were examined using standard histology procedures. Results A missense mutation was identified in the catalytic domain of ADAMTS2. The mutation is predicted to cause the substitution in the mature ADAMTS2 of a valine molecule by a methionine molecule (V15M) affecting the catalytic domain of the enzyme. Both the ‘sorting intolerant from tolerant’ (SIFT) and the PolyPhen-2 methodologies predicted a damaging effect for the mutation. Three-dimensional modelling suggested that this mutation may alter the stability of the protein folding or distort the structure, causing the protein to malfunction. Conclusions and clinical importance Detection of the mutation responsible for the pathology allowed us to remove the heterozygote ram, thus preventing additional cases in the flock.

Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface

There is a strong drive towards hyperresolution earth system models in order to resolve finer scales of motion in the atmosphere. The problem of obtaining more realistic representation of terrestrial fluxes of heat and water, however, is not just a problem of moving to hyperresolution grid scales. It is much more a question of a lack of knowledge about the parameterisation of processes at whatever grid scale is being used for a wider modelling problem. Hyperresolution grid scales cannot alone solve the problem of this hyperresolution ignorance. This paper discusses these issues in more detail with specific reference to land surface parameterisations and flood inundation models. The importance of making local hyperresolution model predictions available for evaluation by local stakeholders is stressed. It is expected that this will be a major driving force for improving model performance in the future. Keith BEVEN, Hannah CLOKE, Florian PAPPENBERGER, Rob LAMB, Neil HUNTER

Screens

Summer Saloon presented at Lion and Lamb an exhibition venue dedicated to showing current painting. My work "Screens" constructs rather than represents an existing architectural space. The painting investigates an experience of phenomenological depth distinct from the model of perspective depth.

Thomas Heywood: just in time

The scholarly study of the dramatic works and career of Thomas Heywood has increased significantly in the last fifty years but still lags far behind that of his contemporaries Shakespeare and Jonson. Labelled the ‘prose Shakespeare’ by Charles Lamb in the early nineteenth century, Heywood seems to have been considered by scholars and publishers to be a ghostly figure who haunted the early modern theatrical world. In fact, recent research using archival records shows the ways in which Heywood is at the centre of an extensive and highly networked professional industry.

Human versus animal: contrasting decomposition dynamics of mammalian analogues in experimental taphonomy

Taphonomic studies regularly employ animal analogues for human decomposition due to ethical restrictions relating to the use of human tissue. However, the validity of using animal analogues in soil decomposition studies is still questioned. This study compared the decomposition of skeletal muscle tissues (SMTs) from human (Homo sapiens), pork (Sus scrofa), beef (Bos taurus), and lamb (Ovis aries) interred in soil microcosms. Fixed interval samples were collected from the SMT for microbial activity and mass tissue loss determination; samples were also taken from the underlying soil for pH, electrical conductivity, and nutrient (potassium, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate) analysis. The overall patterns of nutrient fluxes and chemical changes in nonhuman SMT and the underlying soil followed that of human SMT. Ovine tissue was the most similar to human tissue in many of the measured parameters. Although no single analogue was a precise predictor of human decomposition in soil, all models offered close approximations in decomposition dynamics.

Expression of the receptor tyrosine kinase ephb2 on dendritic cells is modulated by toll-like receptor ligation but is not required for t cell activation

The Eph receptor tyrosine kinases interact with their ephrin ligands on adjacent cells to facilitate contact-dependent cell communication. Ephrin B ligands are expressed on T cells and have been suggested to act as co-stimulatory molecules during T cell activation. There are no detailed reports of the expression and modulation of EphB receptors on dendritic cells, the main antigen presenting cells that interact with T cells. Here we show that mouse splenic dendritic cells (DC) and bone-marrow derived DCs (BMDC) express EphB2, a member of the EphB family. EphB2 expression is modulated by ligation of TLR4 and TLR9 and also by interaction with ephrin B ligands. Co-localization of EphB2 with MHC-II is also consistent with a potential role in T cell activation. However, BMDCs derived from EphB2 deficient mice were able to present antigen in the context of MHC-II and produce T cell activating cytokines to the same extent as intact DCs. Collectively our data suggest that EphB2 may contribute to DC responses, but that EphB2 is not required for T cell activation. This result may have arisen because DCs express other members of the EphB receptor family, EphB3, EphB4 and EphB6, all of which can interact with ephrin B ligands, or because EphB2 may be playing a role in another aspect of DC biology such as migration.

A laboratory incubation method for determining the rate of microbiological degradation of skeletal muscle tissue in soil

A controlled laboratory experiment is described, in principle and practice, which can be used for the of determination the rate of tissue decomposition in soil. By way of example, an experiment was conducted to determine the effect of temperature (12°C, 22°C) on the aerobic decomposition of skeletal muscle tissue (Organic Texel × Suffolk lamb (Ovis aries)) in a sandy loam soil. Measurements of decomposition processes included muscle tissue mass loss, microbial CO2 respiration, and muscle tissue carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). Muscle tissue mass loss at 22°C always was greater than at 12°C (p < 0.001). Microbial respiration was greater in samples incubated at 22°C for the initial 21 days of burial (p < 0.01). All buried muscle tissue samples demonstrated changes in C and N content at the end of the experiment. A significant correlation (p < 0.001) was demonstrated between the loss of muscle tissue-derived C (C1) and microbially-respired C (Cm) demonstrating CO2 respiration may be used to predict mass loss and hence biodegradation. In this experiment Q10 (12°C - 22°C) = 2.0. This method is recommended as a useful tool in determining the effect of environmental variables on the rate of decomposition of various tissues and associated materials.