Don’t trust your poll lead: how public opinion changes during referendum campaigns

Politicians call (or call for) referendums with increasing frequency. But how can they know they will win? Looking at the polls is not enough: opinion during referendum campaigns is often volatile. But this chapter shows that there are nevertheless some recurring patterns that allow us to make reasonable predictions in most cases.

Flanking SNP markers for vicine–convicine concentration in faba bean (Vicia faba L).

The pyrimidine glycosides, vicine and convicine, limit the use of faba bean (Vicia faba L.) as food and feed. A single recessive gene, vc-, is responsible for a lowered vicine–convicine concentration. The biosynthetic pathway of these closely related compounds is not known, and the nearest available markers are several cM away from vc-. Improved markers would assist breeding and help to identify candidate genes. A segregating population of 210 F5 recombinant inbred lines was developed from the cross of Mélodie/2 (low vicine–convicine) × ILB 938/2 (normal vicine–convicine), and vicine–convicine concentrations were determined twice on each line. The population was genotyped with a set of 188 SNPs. A strong, single QTL for vicine–convicine concentration was identified on chromosome I, flanked by markers 1.0 cM away on one side and 2.6 cM on the other. The interval defined by these markers in the model species Medicago truncatula includes about 340 genes, but no candidate genes were identified. Further fine mapping should lead to the identification of tightly linked markers as well as narrowing down the search for candidate regulatory or biosynthetic genes which could underlie the vc- locus.

A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves

Recent work has shown that both the amplitude of upper-level Rossby waves and the tropopause sharpness decrease with forecast lead time for several days in some operational weather forecast systems. In this contribution, the evolution of error growth in a case study of this forecast error type is diagnosed through analysis of operational forecasts and hindcast simulations. Potential vorticity (PV) on the 320-K isentropic surface is used to diagnose Rossby waves. The Rossby-wave forecast error in the operational ECMWF high-resolution forecast is shown to be associated with errors in the forecast of a warm conveyor belt (WCB) through trajectory analysis and an error metric for WCB outflows. The WCB forecast error is characterised by an overestimation of WCB amplitude, a location of the WCB outflow regions that is too far to the southeast, and a resulting underestimation of the magnitude of the negative PV anomaly in the outflow. Essentially the same forecast error development also occurred in all members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System and the Met Office MOGREPS-15 suggesting that in this case model error made an important contribution to the development of forecast error in addition to initial condition error. Exploiting this forecast error robustness, a comparison was performed between the realised flow evolution, proxied by a sequence of short-range simulations, and a contemporaneous forecast. Both the proxy to the realised flow and the contemporaneous forecast a were produced with the Met Office Unified Model enhanced with tracers of diabatic processes modifying potential temperature and PV. Clear differences were found in the way potential temperature and PV are modified in the WCB between proxy and forecast. These results demonstrate that differences in potential temperature and PV modification in the WCB can be responsible for forecast errors in Rossby waves.

Learning to lead for business growth – implications for supporting SMEs in Wales

The Welsh private and third sectors are heavily dependent on SMEs. Consequently the performance of SMEs is critical to the performance of the Welsh economy. Substantial public funds, particularly from European Structural Funds, have been allocated to support these since 2000. The majority of programmes thus funded have been led from within the Welsh Government. This paper reports interim evaluation findings from one intervention led by two Welsh higher education institutions (HEIs), namely the LEAD Wales programme. The programme is an extended intervention to support the leadership skills of owner-managers and incorporates a range of learning methods, including formal masterclasses, but emphasizes situated and experiential learning through action learning, coaching and peer-to-peer exchange exercises. The programme’s impact is assessed on the experiences of 325 participants, of whom 217 have completed the programme. The paper concludes that situated learning methods, through which participants are able to draw from shared history and experience over an extended period are critical to programme success. By contrast, short-term thematic teaching, based around more formal, hierarchical learning is less likely to yield significant and sustainable economic benefits. The implications of this for business support in Wales are discussed.

Economic Transformation in Ghana: Where Will the Path Lead?

In the context of the Ghanaian government’s objective of structural transformation with an emphasis on manufacturing, this paper provides a case study of economic transformation in Ghana, exploring patterns of growth, sector transformation, and agglomeration. We document and examine why, despite impressive growth and poverty reduction figures, Ghana’s economy has exhibited less transformation than might be expected for a country that has recently achieved middle-income status. Ghana’s reduced share of agriculture in the economy, unlike many successfully transformed countries in Asia and Latin America, has been filled by services, while manufacturing has stagnated and even declined. Likely causes include weak transformation of the agricultural sector and therefore little development of agro-processing, the emergence of “consumption cities” and consumption-driven growth, upward pressure on the exchange rate, weak production linkages, and a poor environment for private-sector-led manufacturing.

Discovering biomarkers for antidepressant response: protocol from the Canadian biomarker integration network in depression (CAN-BIND) and clinical characteristics of the first patient cohort

Background Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is among the most prevalent and disabling medical conditions worldwide. Identification of clinical and biological markers (“biomarkers”) of treatment response could personalize clinical decisions and lead to better outcomes. This paper describes the aims, design, and methods of a discovery study of biomarkers in antidepressant treatment response, conducted by the Canadian Biomarker Integration Network in Depression (CAN-BIND). The CAN-BIND research program investigates and identifies biomarkers that help to predict outcomes in patients with MDD treated with antidepressant medication. The primary objective of this initial study (known as CAN-BIND-1) is to identify individual and integrated neuroimaging, electrophysiological, molecular, and clinical predictors of response to sequential antidepressant monotherapy and adjunctive therapy in MDD. Methods CAN-BIND-1 is a multisite initiative involving 6 academic health centres working collaboratively with other universities and research centres. In the 16-week protocol, patients with MDD are treated with a first-line antidepressant (escitalopram 10–20 mg/d) that, if clinically warranted after eight weeks, is augmented with an evidence-based, add-on medication (aripiprazole 2–10 mg/d). Comprehensive datasets are obtained using clinical rating scales; behavioural, dimensional, and functioning/quality of life measures; neurocognitive testing; genomic, genetic, and proteomic profiling from blood samples; combined structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging; and electroencephalography. De-identified data from all sites are aggregated within a secure neuroinformatics platform for data integration, management, storage, and analyses. Statistical analyses will include multivariate and machine-learning techniques to identify predictors, moderators, and mediators of treatment response. Discussion From June 2013 to February 2015, a cohort of 134 participants (85 outpatients with MDD and 49 healthy participants) has been evaluated at baseline. The clinical characteristics of this cohort are similar to other studies of MDD. Recruitment at all sites is ongoing to a target sample of 290 participants. CAN-BIND will identify biomarkers of treatment response in MDD through extensive clinical, molecular, and imaging assessments, in order to improve treatment practice and clinical outcomes. It will also create an innovative, robust platform and database for future research.