Development and validation of a parent report measure for detection of cognitive delay in infancy

Aim To develop a brief, parent-completed instrument (‘ERIC’) for detection of cognitive delay in 10-24 month-olds born preterm, or with low birth weight, or with perinatal complications, and to establish its diagnostic properties. Method Scores were collected from parents of 317 children meeting ≥1 inclusion criteria (birth weight <1500g; gestational age <34 completed weeks; 5-minute Apgar <7; presence of hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy) and meeting no exclusion criteria. Children were assessed for cognitive delay using a criterion score on the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development Cognitive Scale III1 <80. Items were retained according to their individual associations with delay. Sensitivity, specificity, Positive and Negative Predictive Values were estimated and a truncated ERIC was developed for use <14 months. Results ERIC detected 17 out of 18 delayed children in the sample, with 94.4% sensitivity (95% CI [confidence interval] 83.9-100%), 76.9% specificity (72.1-81.7%), 19.8% positive predictive value (11.4-28.2%); 99.6% negative predictive value (98.7-100%); 4.09 likelihood ratio positive; and 0.07 likelihood ratio negative; the associated Area under the Curve was .909 (.829-.960). Interpretation ERIC has potential value as a quickly-administered diagnostic instrument for the absence of early cognitive delay in preterm or premature infants of 10-24 months, and as a screen for cognitive delay. Further research may be needed before ERIC can be recommended for wide-scale use.

Key conclusions of the first international urban land surface model comparison project

he first international urban land surface model comparison was designed to identify three aspects of the urban surface-atmosphere interactions: (1) the dominant physical processes, (2) the level of complexity required to model these, and 3) the parameter requirements for such a model. Offline simulations from 32 land surface schemes, with varying complexity, contributed to the comparison. Model results were analysed within a framework of physical classifications and over four stages. The results show that the following are important urban processes; (i) multiple reflections of shortwave radiation within street canyons, (ii) reduction in the amount of visible sky from within the canyon, which impacts on the net long-wave radiation, iii) the contrast in surface temperatures between building roofs and street canyons, and (iv) evaporation from vegetation. Models that use an appropriate bulk albedo based on multiple solar reflections, represent building roof surfaces separately from street canyons and include a representation of vegetation demonstrate more skill, but require parameter information on the albedo, height of the buildings relative to the width of the streets (height to width ratio), the fraction of building roofs compared to street canyons from a plan view (plan area fraction) and the fraction of the surface that is vegetated. These results, whilst based on a single site and less than 18 months of data, have implications for the future design of urban land surface models, the data that need to be measured in urban observational campaigns, and what needs to be included in initiatives for regional and global parameter databases.

Urban integrated meteorological observations: practice and experience in Shanghai, China

Observations of atmospheric conditions and processes in citiesare fundamental to understanding the interactions between the urban surface and weather/climate, improving the performance of urban weather, air quality and climate models, and providing key information for city end-users (e.g. decision-makers, stakeholders, public). In this paper, Shanghai's urban integrated meteorological observation network (SUIMON) and some examples of intended applications are introduced. Its characteristics include being: multi- purpose (e.g. forecast, research, service), multi-function (high impact weather, city climate, special end-users), multi-scale (e.g. macro/meso-, urban-, neighborhood, street canyon), multi-variable (e.g. thermal, dynamic, chemical, bio-meteorological, ecological), and multi- platform (e.g. radar, wind profiler, ground-based, satellite based, in-situ observation/ sampling). Underlying SUIMON is a data management system to facilitate exchange of data and information. The overall aim of the network is to improve coordination strategies and instruments; to identify data gaps based on science and user driven requirements; and to intelligently combine observations from a variety of platforms by using a data assimilation system that is tuned to produce the best estimate of the current state of the urban atmosphere.

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to changes in channel erosion during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilise the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross-section geometry and channel long-profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D-2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) of the 1:2102 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of hypothetical scenarios of channel morphology were constructed based on a simple velocity based model of critical entrainment. A Monte-Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics, and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected a good approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion despite its overestimation of erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long-profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel-bed rivers like the one used in this research.

A wind tunnel model for quantifying fluxes in the urban boundary layer

Transport of pollution and heatout of streets into the boundary layer above is not currently understood and so fluxes cannot be quantified. Scalar concentration within the street is determined by the flux out of it and so quantifying fluxes for turbulent flow over a rough urban surface is essential. We have developed a naphthalene sublimation technique to measure transfer from a two-dimensional street canyon in a wind tunnel for the case of flow perpendicular to the street. The street was coated with naphthalene, which sublimes at room temperature, so that the vapour represented the scalar source. The transfer velocity wT relates the flux out of the canyon to the concentration within it and is shown to be linearly related to windspeed above the street. The dimensionless transfer coefficient wT/Uδ represents the ventilation efficiency of the canyon (here, wT is a transfer velocity,Uδ is the wind speed at the boundary-layer top). Observed values are between 1.5 and 2.7 ×10-3 and, for the case where H/W→0 (ratio of buildingheight to street width), values are in the same range as estimates of transfer from a flat plate, giving confidence that the technique yields accurate values for street canyon scalar transfer. wT/Uδ varies with aspect ratio (H/W), reaching a maximum in the wake interference regime (0.3 < H/W < 0.65). However, when upstream roughness is increased, the maximum in wT/Uδ reduces, suggesting that street ventilation is less sensitive to H/W when the flow is in equilibrium with the urban surface. The results suggest that using naphthalene sublimation with wind-tunnel models of urban surfaces can provide a direct measure of area-averaged scalar fluxes.

Sunlit fractions on urban facets: impact of spatial resolution and approach

The extent of the surface area sunlit is critical for radiative energy exchanges and therefore for a wide range of applications that require urban land surface models (ULSM), ranging from human comfort to weather forecasting. Here a computational demanding shadow casting algorithm is used to assess the capability of a simple single-layer urban canopy model, which assumes an infinitely long rotating canyon (ILC), to reproduce sunlit areas on roof and roads over central London. Results indicate that the sunlit roads areas are well-represented but somewhat smaller using an ILC, while sunlit roofs areas are consistently larger, especially for dense urban areas. The largest deviations from real world sunlit areas are found for roofs during mornings and evenings. Indications that sunlit fractions on walls are overestimated using an ILC during mornings and evenings are found. The implications of these errors are dependent on the application targeted. For example, (independent of albedo) ULSMs used in numerical weather prediction applying ILC representation of the urban form will overestimate outgoing shortwave radiation from roofs due to the overestimation of sunlit fraction of the roofs. Complications of deriving height to width ratios from real world data are also discussed.

Clouds, aerosols, and precipitation in the marine boundary layer: an ARM Mobile Facility Deployment

The Clouds, Aerosol, and Precipitation in the Marine Boundary Layer (CAP-MBL) deployment at Graciosa Island in the Azores generated a 21-month (April 2009–December 2010) comprehensive dataset documenting clouds, aerosols, and precipitation using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF). The scientific aim of the deployment is to gain improved understanding of the interactions of clouds, aerosols, and precipitation in the marine boundary layer. Graciosa Island straddles the boundary between the subtropics and midlatitudes in the northeast Atlantic Ocean and consequently experiences a great diversity of meteorological and cloudiness conditions. Low clouds are the dominant cloud type, with stratocumulus and cumulus occurring regularly. Approximately half of all clouds contained precipitation detectable as radar echoes below the cloud base. Radar and satellite observations show that clouds with tops from 1 to 11 km contribute more or less equally to surface-measured precipitation at Graciosa. A wide range of aerosol conditions was sampled during the deployment consistent with the diversity of sources as indicated by back-trajectory analysis. Preliminary findings suggest important two-way interactions between aerosols and clouds at Graciosa, with aerosols affecting light precipitation and cloud radiative properties while being controlled in part by precipitation scavenging. The data from Graciosa are being compared with short-range forecasts made with a variety of models. A pilot analysis with two climate and two weather forecast models shows that they reproduce the observed time-varying vertical structure of lower-tropospheric cloud fairly well but the cloud-nucleating aerosol concentrations less well. The Graciosa site has been chosen to be a permanent fixed ARM site that became operational in October 2013.

CO2 emission estimation in the urban environment: measurement of the CO2 storage term

Eddy covariance has been used in urban areas to evaluate the net exchange of CO2 between the surface and the atmosphere. Typically, only the vertical flux is measured at a height 2–3 times that of the local roughness elements; however, under conditions of relatively low instability, CO2 may accumulate in the airspace below the measurement height. This can result in inaccurate emissions estimates if the accumulated CO2 drains away or is flushed upwards during thermal expansion of the boundary layer. Some studies apply a single height storage correction; however, this requires the assumption that the response of the CO2 concentration profile to forcing is constant with height. Here a full seasonal cycle (7th June 2012 to 3rd June 2013) of single height CO2 storage data calculated from concentrations measured at 10 Hz by open path gas analyser are compared to a data set calculated from a concurrent switched vertical profile measured (2 Hz, closed path gas analyser) at 10 heights within and above a street canyon in central London. The assumption required for the former storage determination is shown to be invalid. For approximately regular street canyons at least one other measurement is required. Continuous measurements at fewer locations are shown to be preferable to a spatially dense, switched profile, as temporal interpolation is ineffective. The majority of the spectral energy of the CO2 storage time series was found to be between 0.001 and 0.2 Hz (500 and 5 s respectively); however, sampling frequencies of 2 Hz and below still result in significantly lower CO2 storage values. An empirical method of correcting CO2 storage values from under-sampled time series is proposed.

Authenticity and performance of class in British factual TV series

The chapter characterises British ‘Reality TV’ as a hybrid of factual and fictional television genres, as signaled by the more accurate genre designation ‘structured reality’ television. From the 1990s onwards, in order to develop programmes that are attractive to audiences and inexpensive to produce, programme makers have focused on hybrids of dramatic and documentary modes. This chapter argues that many recent Reality TV programmes privilege soap opera’s emphasis on character, storyline and performance. This affects the ways that class authenticity is understood, undermining factual programmes’ usual claim to legitimacy based on reference to a pre-existing reality, and transforming hierarchies that separate highly-valued from low-valued types of programme.

Kerb and urban increment of highly time-resolved trace elements in PM10, PM2.5 and PM1.0 winter aerosol in London during ClearfLo 2012

Ambient concentrations of trace elements with 2 h time resolution were measured in PM10–2.5, PM2.5–1.0 and PM1.0–0.3 size ranges at kerbside, urban background and rural sites in London during winter 2012. Samples were collected using rotating drum impactors (RDIs) and subsequently analysed with synchrotron radiation-induced X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (SR-XRF). Quantification of kerb and urban increments (defined as kerb-to-urban and urban-to-rural concentration ratios, respectively), and assessment of diurnal and weekly variability provided insight into sources governing urban air quality and the effects of urban micro-environments on human exposure. Traffic-related elements yielded the highest kerb increments, with values in the range of 10.4 to 16.6 for SW winds (3.3–6.9 for NE) observed for elements influenced by brake wear (e.g. Cu, Sb, Ba) and 5.7 to 8.2 for SW (2.6–3.0 for NE) for other traffic-related processes (e.g. Cr, Fe, Zn). Kerb increments for these elements were highest in the PM10–2.5 mass fraction, roughly twice that of the PM1.0–0.3 fraction. These elements also showed the highest urban increments (~ 3.0), although no difference was observed between brake wear and other traffic-related elements. All elements influenced by traffic exhibited higher concentrations during morning and evening rush hours, and on weekdays compared to weekends, with the strongest trends observed at the kerbside site, and additionally enhanced by winds coming directly from the road, consistent with street canyon effects. Elements related to mineral dust (e.g. Al, Si, Ca, Sr) showed significant influences from traffic-induced resuspension, as evidenced by moderate kerb (3.4–5.4 for SW, 1.7–2.3 for NE) and urban (~ 2) increments and increased concentrations during peak traffic flow. Elements related to regional transport showed no significant enhancement at kerb or urban sites, with the exception of PM10–2.5 sea salt (factor of up to 2), which may be influenced by traffic-induced resuspension of sea and/or road salt. Heavy-duty vehicles appeared to have a larger effect than passenger vehicles on the concentrations of all elements influenced by resuspension (including sea salt) and wearing processes. Trace element concentrations in London were influenced by both local and regional sources, with coarse and intermediate fractions dominated by traffic-induced resuspension and wearing processes and fine particles influenced by regional transport.

Spatial and temporal variability of the concentration field from localized releases in a regular building array

Spatial and temporal fluctuations in the concentration field from an ensemble of continuous point-source releases in a regular building array are analyzed from data generated by direct numerical simulations. The release is of a passive scalar under conditions of neutral stability. Results are related to the underlying flow structure by contrasting data for an imposed wind direction of 0 deg and 45 deg relative to the buildings. Furthermore, the effects of distance from the source and vicinity to the plume centreline on the spatial and temporal variability are documented. The general picture that emerges is that this particular geometry splits the flow domain into segments (e.g. “streets” and “intersections”) in each of which the air is, to a first approximation, well mixed. Notable exceptions to this general rule include regions close to the source, near the plume edge, and in unobstructed channels when the flow is aligned. In the oblique (45 deg) case the strongly three-dimensional nature of the flow enhances mixing of a scalar within the canopy leading to reduced temporal and spatial concentration fluctuations within the plume core. These fluctuations are in general larger for the parallel flow (0 deg) case, especially so in the long unobstructed channels. Due to the more complex flow structure in the canyon-type streets behind buildings, fluctuations are lower than in the open channels, though still substantially larger than for oblique flow. These results are relevant to the formulation of simple models for dispersion in urban areas and to the quantification of the uncertainties in their predictions.