Linear vs. log-linear unit-root specification: an application of mis-specification encompassing

The objective of this paper is to apply the mis-specification (M-S) encompassing perspective to the problem of choosing between linear and log-linear unit-root models. A simple M-S encompassing test, based on an auxiliary regression stemming from the conditional second moment, is proposed and its empirical size and power are investigated using Monte Carlo simulations. It is shown that by focusing on the conditional process the sampling distributions of the relevant statistics are well behaved under both the null and alternative hypotheses. The proposed M-S encompassing test is illustrated using US total disposable income quarterly data.

Metabolic theory predicts whole-ecosystem properties

Understanding the effects of individual organisms on material cycles and energy fluxes within ecosystems is central to predicting the impacts of human-caused changes on climate, land use, and biodiversity. Here we present a theory that integrates metabolic (organism-based bottom-up) and systems (ecosystem-based top-down) approaches to characterize how the metabolism of individuals affects the flows and stores of materials and energy in ecosystems. The theory predicts how the average residence time of carbon molecules, total system throughflow (TST), and amount of recycling vary with the body size and temperature of the organisms and with trophic organization. We evaluate the theory by comparing theoretical predictions with outputs of numerical models designed to simulate diverse ecosystem types and with empirical data for real ecosystems. Although residence times within different ecosystems vary by orders of magnitude—from weeks in warm pelagic oceans with minute phytoplankton producers to centuries in cold forests with large tree producers—as predicted, all ecosystems fall along a single line: residence time increases linearly with slope = 1.0 with the ratio of whole-ecosystem biomass to primary productivity (B/P). TST was affected predominantly by primary productivity and recycling by the transfer of energy from microbial decomposers to animal consumers. The theory provides a robust basis for estimating the flux and storage of energy, carbon, and other materials in terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems and for quantifying the roles of different kinds of organisms and environments at scales from local ecosystems to the biosphere.

Shakespeare: from author to audience to print, 1608-1616

This essay analyses the transmission of the texts of Shakespeare's final plays, Pericles, Coriolanus, Cymbeline, The Winter’s Tale, The Tempest, Henry VIII and The Two Noble Kinsmen, from author to censor to stage to print and argues that he had refined his writing, revision and collaborative practices.

Roger Machado, Perkin Warbeck and heraldic espionage

An examination of the medieval herald's role in international espionage. It is argued that heralds were used as spies, despite their creation oaths stipulating that their job should not encompass this task. The herald Roger Machado's involvement in the diplomacy surrounding the pretender to the English throne, Perkin Warbeck, is scrutinized and is offered as evidence that Machado did act as a spy for Henry VII on the international stage.