A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates

The intensity and distribution of daily precipitation is predicted to change under scenarios of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this paper, we analyse the ability of HadCM2, a general circulation model (GCM), and a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), both developed at the Met Office's Hadley Centre, to simulate extreme daily precipitation by reference to observations. A detailed analysis of daily precipitation is made at two UK grid boxes, where probabilities of reaching daily thresholds in the GCM and RCM are compared with observations. We find that the RCM generally overpredicts probabilities of extreme daily precipitation but that, when the GCM and RCM simulated values are scaled to have the same mean as the observations, the RCM captures the upper-tail distribution more realistically. To compare regional changes in daily precipitation in the GHG-forced period 2080-2100 in the GCM and the RCM, we develop two methods. The first considers the fractional changes in probability of local daily precipitation reaching or exceeding a fixed 15 mm threshold in the anomaly climate compared with the control. The second method uses the upper one-percentile of the control at each point as the threshold. Agreement between the models is better in both seasons with the latter method, which we suggest may be more useful when considering larger scale spatial changes. On average, the probability of precipitation exceeding the 1% threshold increases by a factor of 2.5 (GCM and RCM) in winter and by I .7 (GCM) or 1.3 (RCM) in summer.

A study of the atmospherically relevant reaction between molecular chlorine and dimethylsulfide (DMS): establishing the reaction intermediate and measurement of absolute photoionization cross-sections

In a study using UV photoelectron spectroscopy (PES) of the atmospherically relevant reaction CH3SCH3 + Cl2 → CH3SCH2Cl + HCl bands associated with a reaction intermediate have been observed. These have been assigned to ionization of the covalently bound molecule (CH3)2SCl2 on the basis of the intensity of the observed bands as a function of reaction time, molecular orbital calculations of vertical ionization energies and evidence from infrared spectroscopy. A method has also been developed, with the flow-tube/PE spectrometer combination used, to measure photoionization cross-sections of the reagents and products at the photon energy utilized and this has allowed the photoionization cross-section of the intermediate to be estimated. This work augments an earlier study in which the rate constant of the reaction between CH3SCH3 (DMS) and Cl2 has been measured at room temperature.

The sky is the limit? The determinants and constraints of European airports' commercial revenues

This study investigates the determinants of commercial and retail airport revenues as well as revenues from real estate operations. Cross-sectional OLS, 2SLS and robust regression models of European airports identify a number of significant drivers of airport revenues. Aviation revenues per passenger are mainly determined by the national income per capita in which the airport is located, the percentage of leisure travelers and the size of the airport proxied by total aviation revenues. Main drivers of commercial revenues per passenger include the total number of passengers passing through the airport, the ratio of commercial to total revenues, the national income, the share of domestic and leisure travelers and the total number of flights. These results are in line with previous findings of a negative influence of business travelers on commercial revenues per passenger. We also find that a high amount of retail space per passenger is generally associated with lower commercial revenues per square meter confirming decreasing marginal revenue effects. Real estate revenues per passenger are positively associated with national income per capita at airport location, share of intra-EU passengers and percent delayed flights. Overall, aviation and non-aviation revenues appear to be strongly interlinked, underlining the potential for a comprehensive airport management strategy above and beyond mere cost minimization of the aviation sector.

Social consensus, moral intensity and willingness to pay to address a farm animal welfare issue

An experimental contingent valuation (CV) survey of university students was undertaken to explore the impact of social consensus information on people's stated willingness to pay (wtp) to address a farm animal welfare issue. The survey found that additional information presented to respondents on social consensus concerning the moral dimensions of the issue led to a greater perception of social consensus by respondents. This greater perception of social consensus appeared to result in a higher level of moral intensity associated with the issue and a higher stated wtp by respondents for policy to address the issue. However, as for many CV studies of public goods, a question remains as to whether the estimated wtp is a true measure of people's preferences and relative values or merely a measure of attitudes on an arbitrary monetary scale.

Moral intensity and willingness to pay concerning farm animal welfare issues and the implications for agricultural policy

An experimental survey was undertaken to explore the links between the characteristics of a moral issue, the degree of moral intensity/moral imperative associated with the issue (Jones, 1991), and people's stated willingness to pay (wtp) for policy to address the issue. Two farm animal welfare issues were chosen for comparison and the contingent valuation method was used to elicit people's wtp. The findings of the survey suggest that increases in moral characteristics do appear to result in an increase in moral intensity and the degree of moral imperative associated with an issue. Moreover, there was a positive link between moral intensity/moral imperative associated with an issue and people's stated wtp for policy to address the issue. The paper discusses the relevance of the findings of the survey in the context of the debate concerning the relationship between moral and economic values and the use of the contingent valuation method to estimate people's wtp of policy options with moral dimensions.

The role of the international cocoa germplasm database and the international cocoa quarantine centre in information management and distribution of cocoa genetic resources

A range of physiological parameters (canopy light transmission, canopy shape, leaf size, flowering and flushing intensity) were measured from the International Clone Trial, typically over the course of two years. Data were collected from six locations, these being: Brazil, Ecuador, Trinidad, Venezuela, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Canopy shape varied significantly between clones, although it showed little variation between locations. Genotypic variation in leaf size was differentially affected by the growth location; such differences appeared to underlie a genotype by environment interaction in relation to canopy light transmission. Flushing data were recorded at monthly intervals over the course of a year. Within each location, a significant interaction was observed between genotype and time of year, suggesting that some genotypes respond to a greater extent than others to environmental stimuli. A similar interaction was observed for flowering data, where significant correlations were found between flowering intensity and temperature in Brazil and flowering intensity and rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire. The results demonstrate the need for local evaluation of cocoa clones and also suggest that the management practices for particular planting material may need to be fine-tuned to the location in which they are cultivated.

Energy overview of Botswana: generation and consumption

Botswana has a basic need to explore its energy concept, this being its energy sources, generation and percentage of the population with access to electricity. At present, Botswana generates electricity from coal, which supplies about 29% (on average) of the country’s demand. The other 71% is imported mainly from South Africa (Eskom). Consequently, the dependence of Botswana on imports posses threats to the security of its energy supply. As a result, there is the need to understand the bases for a possible generation expansion that would substantiate existing documentation. In view of this need, this study investigates the existing energy sources as well as energy consumption and production levels in Botswana. The study would be further developed by making projections of the energy demand up until the year 2020. The key techniques that were used include; literature review, questionnaire survey and an empirical study. The results presented indicated that, current dependable operation capacity (i.e. 100MW) should be increased to 2,595 MW or more assuming 85% plant efficiency. This would then be able to meet the growing demand for energy use. In addition, the installed capacity would be able to support commercial and mining activities for the growth of the economy.

Peroxidative bromination and oxygenation of organic compounds: synthesis, X-ray crystal structure and catalytic implications of mononuclear and binuclear oxovanadium(V) complexes containing Schiffbase ligands

Treatment of of (R,R)-N,N-salicylidene cyclohexane 1,2-diamine(H(2)L(1)) in methanol with aqueous NH(4)VO(3) solution in perchloric acid medium affords the mononuclear oxovanadium(V) complex [VOL(1)(MeOH)]-ClO(4) (1) as deep blue solid while the treatment of same solution of (R,R)-N,N-salicylidene cyclohexane 1,2-diamine(H(2)L(1)) with aqueous solution of VOSO(4) leads to the formation of di-(mu-oxo) bridged vanadium(V) complex [VO(2)L(2)](2) (2) as green solid where HL(2) = (R,R)-N-salicylidene cyclohexane 1,2-diamine. The ligand HL(2) is generated in situ by the hydrolysis of one of the imine bonds of HL(1) ligand during the course of formation of complex [VO(2)L(2)](2) (2). Both the compounds have been characterized by single crystal X-ray diffraction as well as spectroscopic methods. Compounds 1 and 2 are to act as catalyst for the catalytic bromide oxidation and C-H bond oxidation in presence of hydrogen peroxide. The representative substrates 2,4-dimethoxy benzoic acid and para-hydroxy benzoic acids are brominated in presence of H(2)O(2) and KBr in acid medium using the above compounds as catalyst. The complexes are also used as catalyst for C-H bond activation of the representative hydrocarbons toluene, ethylbenzene and cyclohexane where hydrogen peroxide acts as terminal oxidant. The yield percentage and turnover number are also quite good for the above catalytic reaction. The oxidized products of hydrocarbons have been characterized by GC Analysis while the brominated products have been characterized by (1)H NMR spectroscopic studies.

Land use intensity and trees on farms in Malawi

Rapidly increasing population densities in Malawi have put a huge strain on the existing agricultural land and the surrounding woodland. Smallholder agriculture is the dominant economic activity of Malawi’s rural population and many farmers have been forced to cultivate marginal lands with less fertile soils, making conditions much more difficult to grow crops. Natural woodland is under increasing pressure from the opening of new lands for cultivation and the increased demand for firewood, timber and other woody resources, with rural households historically obtaining most of their complementary inputs and saleable commodities from nearby areas of forest (Arnold, 1997a). Despite this increasing pressure, woodlands are not being cleared indiscriminately; selected indigenous species are left standing in fields and around households. These are joined by exotic species that are planted and maintained. These trees provide products and services that are vital, yielding food, firewood, building materials and medicine, replenishing soil fertility and protecting against soil erosion. Following a Boserupian approach, this study attempts to establish the reality of a trajectory of enhanced on-farm tree planting and management as population pressure mounts and as part of a more general process of agricultural intensification. The study examines the combination of factors (social, economic, political and environmental) that either stimulate or discourage on-farm tree planting on smallholdings in Malawi, highlighting how woodland resource use changes over a gradient of land use intensity. This study gives a detailed insight into the way that tree planting and management in the smallholder farming system in Malawi works and identifies a trend of increased tree planting/management alongside an increase in agricultural intensification. However, there is no single ‘path’ of intensification; the link between agricultural change and tree planting is complex and there are many trajectories of intensification that a farmer may follow, dependent on his/her social or economic circumstances. The study recommends that agroforestry interventions give rigorous consideration to the needs of the local community, and the suitability of trees to address those needs, before embarking on programmes that advocate tree planting and management as a panacea.

Identification and ranking of extraordinary rainfall events over northwest Italy: the role of Atlantic moisture

An objective identification and ranking of extraordinary rainfall events for Northwest Italy is established using time series of annual precipitation maxima for 1938–2002 at over 200 stations. Rainfall annual maxima are considered for five reference durations (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h). In a first step, a day is classified as an extraordinary rainfall day when a regional threshold calculated on the basis of a two-components extreme value distribution is exceeded for at least one of the stations. Second, a clustering procedure taking into account the different rainfall durations is applied to the identified 163 events. Third, a division into six clusters is chosen using Ward's distance criteria. It is found that two of these clusters include the seven strongest events as quantified from a newly developed measure of intensity which combines rainfall intensities and spatial extension. Two other clusters include the weakest 72% historical events. The obtained clusters are analyzed in terms of typical synoptic characteristics. The two top clusters are characterized by strong and persistent upper air troughs inducing not only moisture advection from the North Atlantic into the Western Mediterranean but also strong northward flow towards the southern Alpine ranges. Humidity transports from the North Atlantic are less important for the weaker clusters. We conclude that moisture advection from the North Atlantic plays a relevant role in the magnitude of the extraordinary events over Northwest Italy.

Quantifying the climatological relationship between extratropical cyclone intensity and atmospheric precursors

We introduce a novel technique in which linear regression analysis is applied to clusters of tracked cyclones to statistically assess the factors controlling cyclone development. We illustrate this technique by evaluating the differences between cyclones forming in the west and east North Atlantic (herein termed west and east Atlantic cyclones). Enhanced cyclone intensity 2 days after genesis is found to be associated with deeper upper-level troughs upstream of the cyclone center at the genesis time in both west and east Atlantic cyclones. However, whilst west Atlantic cyclones are also enhanced by the presence of strong fronts, east Atlantic cyclones are not. Instead, east Atlantic cyclones exhibit an enhancement when diabatically generated midlevel potential vorticity is present (with the enhancement being of approximately equal magnitude to that associated with the potential vorticity in the upper-level trough). This is consistent with the paradigm of latent heat release in the warm conveyor belt region playing an important role in the development of east Atlantic cyclones.

Altered anterior insula activation during anticipation and experience of painful stimuli in expert meditators.

Experientially opening oneself to pain rather than avoiding it is said to reduce the mind's tendency toward avoidance or anxiety which can further exacerbate the experience of pain. This is a central feature of mindfulness-based therapies. Little is known about the neural mechanisms of mindfulness on pain. During a meditation practice similar to mindfulness, functional magnetic resonance imaging was used in expert meditators (> 10,000 h of practice) to dissociate neural activation patterns associated with pain, its anticipation, and habituation. Compared to novices, expert meditators reported equal pain intensity, but less unpleasantness. This difference was associated with enhanced activity in the dorsal anterior insula (aI), and the anterior mid-cingulate (aMCC) the so-called ‘salience network’, for experts during pain. This enhanced activity during pain was associated with reduced baseline activity before pain in these regions and the amygdala for experts only. The reduced baseline activation in left aI correlated with lifetime meditation experience. This pattern of low baseline activity coupled with high response in aIns and aMCC was associated with enhanced neural habituation in amygdala and pain-related regions before painful stimulation and in the pain-related regions during painful stimulation. These findings suggest that cultivating experiential openness down-regulates anticipatory representation of aversive events, and increases the recruitment of attentional resources during pain, which is associated with faster neural habituation.

Structure and stress of Re(11%21); chiral terraces at a racemic surface

The surface structure and morphology of the clean Re(11%21) surface has been investigated through combined low energy electron diffraction intensity analysis of data taken at multiple angles of incidence, scanning tunneling microscopy, and first-principles density functional calculations. The results show how this globally racemic surface terminates in two chirally distinct terraces, which show largescale out-of-plane atomic relaxations and in-plane lateral movement of the uppermost atoms. We further identify and discuss the initial stages of step bunching upon adsorption of oxygen that leads ultimately to the large-scale faceting of the surface. Finally, we present calculations of surface stress and the response to applied surface strain, which suggest routes to the exertion of control over the expression of chirality at the surface.

Assessment and management of anxiety disorders in children and adolescents

Anxiety disorders in childhood and adolescence are extremely common and are often associated with lifelong psychiatric disturbance. Consistent with DSM-5 and the extant literature, this review concerns the assessment and treatment of specific phobias, separation anxiety disorder, generalised anxiety disorder, social anxiety disorder, panic disorder and agoraphobia. Evidence-based psychological treatments (cognitive behaviour therapy; CBT) for these disorders have been developed and investigated, and in recent years promising low-intensity versions of CBT interventions have been proposed that offer a means to increase access to evidence-based treatments. There is some evidence of effectiveness of pharmacological treatments for anxiety disorders in children and young people, however, routine prescription is not recommended due to concerns about potential harm.

Effect of inclusion of lactulose and Lactobacillus plantarum on the intestinal environment and performance of piglets at weaning

The prebiotic lactulose, a probiotic strain of Lactobacillus plantarum (L. plantarum) and a synbiotic combination of these two agents were evaluated as growth promoters in 25–39-day old commercial weaning pigs. Ninety-six weaning pigs were allocated into 32 pens, taking initial weight into account, and distributed into four groups as follows: a control diet (CTR), the same diet supplemented daily with L. plantarum (109 CFU/mL sprayed on top; 20 mL/pig) (LPN); 10 g/kg lactulose (LAC) or a combination of both treatments (SYN). At day 14, eight piglets from each group were euthanized and proximal colon digesta was sampled for luminal pH, short-chain fatty acids (SCFA) and lactic acid concentrations. Deoxyribonucleic acid was extracted from colonic digesta and the microbial community was profiled by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis (T-RFLP) and qPCR. Blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and acute-phase proteins (Pig-MAP) were measured. Lactulose treatment (LAC) improved feed intake (P<0.05), average daily gain (P<0.01), feed:gain ratio (P<0.05) and reduced BUN (P<0.01). Both, LAC and LPN treatment, decreased the Enterobacteriaceae:Lactobacillus spp. ratio in the colonic luminal contents (P<0.05). Moreover LPN treatment promoted a decrease in the percentage of branched fatty acids (P<0.01) suggesting a reduction in proteolytic microbial activity. Microbial profiling of colonic luminal contents by T-RFLP revealed changes in some microbial species. Terminal restriction fragments (TRFs) compatible with Bifidobacterium thermoacidophilum were more frequently detected in experimental diets compared to CTR (P<0.05). Pigs receiving SYN diet demonstrated the combined positive effects of individual LAC and LPN treatment although we were not able to show a specific increase in the probiotic strain with the inclusion of lactulose. Collectively, these data suggest the combination of lactulose and L. plantarum acts as a complementary synbiotic, but not as a synergistic combination.