Long-term changes to the frequency of occurrence of British moths are consistent with opposing and synergistic effects of climate and land-use changes

1. Species’ distributions are likely to be affected by a combination of environmental drivers. We used a data set of 11 million species occurrence records over the period 1970–2010 to assess changes in the frequency of occurrence of 673 macro-moth species in Great Britain. Groups of species with different predicted sensitivities showed divergent trends, which we interpret in the context of land-use and climatic changes. 2. A diversity of responses was revealed: 260 moth species declined significantly, whereas 160 increased significantly. Overall, frequencies of occurrence declined, mirroring trends in less species-rich, yet more intensively studied taxa. 3. Geographically widespread species, which were predicted to be more sensitive to land use than to climate change, declined significantly in southern Britain, where the cover of urban and arable land has increased. 4. Moths associated with low nitrogen and open environments (based on their larval host plant characteristics) declined most strongly, which is also consistent with a land-use change explanation. 5. Some moths that reach their northern (leading edge) range limit in southern Britain increased, whereas species restricted to northern Britain (trailing edge) declined significantly, consistent with a climate change explanation. 6. Not all species of a given type behaved similarly, suggesting that complex interactions between species’ attributes and different combinations of environmental drivers determine frequency of occurrence changes. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our findings are consistent with large-scale responses to climatic and land-use changes, with some species increasing and others decreasing. We suggest that land-use change (e.g. habitat loss, nitrogen deposition) and climate change are both major drivers of moth biodiversity change, acting independently and in combination. Importantly, the diverse responses revealed in this species-rich taxon show that multifaceted conservation strategies are needed to minimize negative biodiversity impacts of multiple environmental changes. We suggest that habitat protection, management and ecological restoration can mitigate combined impacts of land-use change and climate change by providing environments that are suitable for existing populations and also enable species to shift their ranges.

Can site and landscape-scale environmental attributes buffer bird populations against weather events?

Projected impacts of climate change on the populations and distributions of species pose a challenge for conservationists. In response, a number of adaptation strategies to enable species to persist in a changing climate have been proposed. Management to maximise the quality of habitat at existing sites may reduce the magnitude or frequency of climate-driven population declines. In addition large-scale management of landscapes could potentially improve the resilience of populations by facilitating inter-population movements. A reduction in the obstacles to species’ range expansion, may also allow species to track changing conditions better through shifts to new locations, either regionally or locally. However, despite a strong theoretical base, there is limited empirical evidence to support these management interventions. This makes it difficult for conservationists to decide on the most appropriate strategy for different circumstances. Here extensive data from long-term monitoring of woodland birds at individual sites are used to examine the two-way interactions between habitat and both weather and population count in the previous year. This tests the extent to which site-scale and landscape-scale habitat attributes may buffer populations against variation in winter weather (a key driver of woodland bird population size) and facilitate subsequent population growth. Our results provide some support for the prediction that landscape-scale attributes (patch isolation and area of woodland habitat) may influence the ability of some woodland bird species to withstand weather-mediated population declines. These effects were most apparent among generalist woodland species. There was also evidence that several, primarily specialist, woodland species are more likely to increase following population decline where there is more woodland at both site and landscape scales. These results provide empirical support for the concept that landscape-scale conservation efforts may make the populations of some woodland bird species more resilient to climate change. However in isolation, management is unlikely to provide a universal benefit to all species.

Behavioral economics, wearable devices, and cooperative games: results from a population-based intervention to increase physical activity

Background: Health care literature supports the development of accessible interventions that integrate behavioral economics, wearable devices, principles of evidence-based behavior change, and community support. However, there are limited real-world examples of large scale, population-based, member-driven reward platforms. Subsequently, a paucity of outcome data exists and health economic effects remain largely theoretical. To complicate matters, an emerging area of research is defining the role of Superusers, the small percentage of unusually engaged digital health participants who may influence other members. Objective: The objective of this preliminary study is to analyze descriptive data from GOODcoins, a self-guided, free-to-consumer engagement and rewards platform incentivizing walking, running and cycling. Registered members accessed the GOODcoins platform through PCs, tablets or mobile devices, and had the opportunity to sync wearables to track activity. Following registration, members were encouraged to join gamified group challenges and compare their progress with that of others. As members met challenge targets, they were rewarded with GOODcoins, which could be redeemed for planet- or people-friendly products. Methods: Outcome data were obtained from the GOODcoins custom SQL database. The reporting period was December 1, 2014 to May 1, 2015. Descriptive self-report data were analyzed using MySQL and MS Excel. Results: The study period includes data from 1298 users who were connected to an exercise tracking device. Females consisted of 52.6% (n=683) of the study population, 33.7% (n=438) were between the ages of 20-29, and 24.8% (n=322) were between the ages of 30-39. 77.5% (n=1006) of connected and active members met daily-recommended physical activity guidelines of 30 minutes, with a total daily average activity of 107 minutes (95% CI 90, 124). Of all connected and active users, 96.1% (n=1248) listed walking as their primary activity. For members who exchanged GOODcoins, the mean balance was 4,000 (95% CI 3850, 4150) at time of redemption, and 50.4% (n=61) of exchanges were for fitness or outdoor products, while 4.1% (n=5) were for food-related items. Participants were most likely to complete challenges when rewards were between 201-300 GOODcoins. Conclusions: The purpose of this study is to form a baseline for future research. Overall, results indicate that challenges and incentives may be effective for connected and active members, and may play a role in achieving daily-recommended activity guidelines. Registrants were typically younger, walking was the primary activity, and rewards were mainly exchanged for fitness or outdoor products. Remaining to be determined is whether members were already physically active at time of registration and are representative of healthy adherers, or were previously inactive and were incentivized to change their behavior. As challenges are gamified, there is an opportunity to investigate the role of superusers and healthy adherers, impacts on behavioral norms, and how cooperative games and incentives can be leveraged across stratified populations. Study limitations and future research agendas are discussed.

Simulating metals and mine discharges in river basins using a new integrated catchment model for metals: pollution impacts and restoration strategies in the Aries-Mures river system in Transylvania, Romania

The INtegrated CAtchment (INCA) model has been developed to simulate the impact of mine discharges on river systems. The model accounts for the key kinetic chemical processes operating as well as the dilution, mixing and redistribution of pollutants in rivers downstream of mine discharges or acid rock drainage sites. The model is dynamic and simulates the day-to-day behaviour of hydrology and eight metals (cadmium, mercury, copper, zinc, lead, arsenic, manganese and chromium) as well as cyanide and ammonia. The model is semi-distributed and can simulate catchments, sub-catchment and in-stream river behaviour. The model has been applied to the Roia Montan Mine in Transylvania, Romania, and used to assess the impacts of old mine adits on the local catchments as well as on the downstream Aries and Mures river system. The question of mine restoration is investigated and a set of clean-up scenarios investigated. It is shown that the planned restoration will generate a much improved water quality from the mine and also alleviate the metal pollution of the river system.

Interdependency and care over the lifecourse

Interdependency and Care over the Lifecourse draws upon theories of time and space to consider how informal care is woven into the fabric of everyday lives and is shaped by social and economic inequalities and opportunities. The book comprises three parts. The first explores contrasting social and economic contexts of informal care in different parts of the world. The second looks at different themes and dynamics of caring, using fictional vignettes of illness and health, child care, elderly care and communities of care. The book examines the significance to practices of care throughout the lifecourse of: understandings and expectations of care emotional exchanges involved in care memories and anticipations of giving and receiving care the social nature of the spaces and places in which care is carried out the practical time-space scheduling necessary to caring activities. Finally the authors critically examine how the frameworks of caringscapes and carescapes might be used in research, policy and practice. A working example is provided. This book will be of interest to students and researchers of care work, health and social care, geography, sociology of the family and social policy as well as those in business and policy communities trying to gain an understanding of how work and informal care interweave

Transgenic approaches to crop improvement

Transgenic crops are now grown commercially on several million hectares, principally in North America. To date, the predominant crops are maize (corn), soybean, cotton, and potatoes. In addition, there have been field trials of transgenics from at least 52 species including all the major field crops, vegetables, and several herbaceous and woody species. This review summarizes recent data relating to such trials, particularly in terms of the trends away from simple, single gene traits such as herbicide and insect resistance towards more complex agronomic traits such as growth rate and increased photosynthetic efficiency. Much of the recent information is derived from inspection of patent databases, a useful source of information on commercial priorities. The review also discusses the time scale for the introduction of these transgenes into breeding populations and their eventual release as new varieties.

Landscape gene flow, coexistence and threshold effect: The case of genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus)

Globally there have been a number of concerns about the development of genetically modified crops many of which relate to the implications of gene flow at various levels. In Europe these concerns have led the European Union (EU) to promote the concept of 'coexistence' to allow the freedom to plant conventional and genetically modified (GM) varieties but to minimise the presence of transgenic material within conventional crops. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge on the market, the presence of transgenes would generate a 'negative externality' to conventional growers. The establishment of maximum tolerance level for the adventitious presence of GM material in conventional crops produces a threshold effect in the external costs. The existing literature suggests that apart from the biological characteristics of the plant under consideration (e.g. self-pollination rates, entomophilous species, anemophilous species, etc.), gene flow at the landscape level is affected by the relative size of the source and sink populations and the spatial arrangement of the fields in the landscape. In this paper, we take genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (GM HT OSR) as a model crop. Starting from an individual pollen dispersal function, we develop a spatially explicit numerical model in order to assess the effect of the size of the source/sink populations and the degree of spatial aggregation on the extent of gene flow into conventional OSR varieties under two alternative settings. We find that when the transgene presence in conventional produce is detected at the field level, the external cost will increase with the size of the source area and with the level of spatial disaggregation. on the other hand when the transgene presence is averaged among all conventional fields in the landscape (e.g. because of grain mixing before detection), the external cost will only depend on the relative size of the source area. The model could readily be incorporated into an economic evaluation of policies to regulate adoption of GM HT OSR. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential contribution of natural enemies to patterns of local adaptation in plants

Genetic differentiation among plant populations and adaptation to local environmental conditions are well documented. However, few studies have examined the potential contribution of plant antagonists, such as insect herbivores and pathogens, to the pattern of local adaptation. Here, a reciprocal transplant experiment was set up at three sites across Europe using two common plant species, Holcus lanatus and Plantago lanceolata. The amount of damage by the main above-ground plant antagonists was measured: a rust fungus infecting Holcus and a specialist beetle feeding on Plantago, both in low-density monoculture plots and in competition with interspecific neighbours. Strong genetic differentiation among provenances in the amount of damage by antagonists in both species was found. Local provenances of Holcus had significantly higher amounts of rust infection than foreign provenances, whereas local provenances of Plantago were significantly less damaged by the specialist beetle than the foreign provenances. The presence of surrounding vegetation affected the amount of damage but had little influence on the ranking of plant provenances. The opposite pattern of population differentiation in resistance to local antagonists in the two species suggests that it will be difficult to predict the consequences of plant translocations for interactions with organisms of higher trophic levels.

Modelling effects of prolonged conditioning on dormancy and germination of Striga hermonthica

The impact of environment on the germination biology of the parasite was studied in the laboratory with seeds conditioned at various water potentials, urea concentrations and at 17.5 to 37.5°C for up to 133 days. Maximum germination was observed at 20 to 25°C. Water stress and urea suppressed maximum germination. The final percentage germination response to period of conditioning showed a non-linear relationship and suggests the release of seeds from dormancy during the initial period and later on dormancy induction. Germination percentage increased with increase in conditioning period to a threshold and remained stable for variable periods followed by a decline with further extension of conditioning time. The decline in germination finally terminated in zero germination in most treatments before the end of experimentation. The investigated factors of temperature, water potential and urea showed clear effects on the expression of dormancy pattern of the parasite. The effects of water potential and urea were viewed as modifying a primary response of seeds to temperature during conditioning. The changes in germinability potential during conditioning were consistent with the hypothesis that dormancy periods are normally distributed within seed populations and that loss of primary dormancy precedes induction of secondary dormancy. Hence an additive mathematical model of loss of primary dormancy and induction of secondary as affected by environment was developed as: G = {[Φ-1 (Kp+ (po+pnN+pwW) (T-Tb) t)]-[Φ-1 (Ks+ ((swW+sa)+sorT)t)]}[Φ-1(aT2+bT+c+cwW)].

Pathogenicity of the bacterium Pseudomonas putida from the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema abbasi and its secretion against Galleria mellonella larvae

The Entomopathogenic bacterium Pseudomonas putida from Steinernema abbasi and its metabolic secretions were lethal to the Galleria mellonella larvae. Different laboratory experiments on time interval, substrate, moisture, temperature, dose, penetration of cells, stored and dried metabolites were conducted in sand and filter paper bioassays. It was concluded that death was probably due to the toxic metabolites. This bacterium and its metabolites were found very effective at 30 degree C. Penetration of bacterium was rapid after application on G. mellonella larvae. P. putida cells were recovered from the haemocoele when suspensions containing bacterial cells were applied to the G. mellonella indicating that bacterial symbionts do have a free-living existence and can enter the haemocoele in the absence of nematode vector. Stored metabolite and dried metabolites were found persistent for long time. This bacterium or its toxic secretions can be used for insect control that can be important component of integrated pest management against different insect pests. P. putida and its secretions are suggested as the most appropriate suspension to apply against insect pest control program in tropical ecological regions.

Rapeseed cytoplasm gives advantage in wild relatives and complicates genetically modified crop biocontainment

Biocontainment methods for genetically modified crops closest to commercial reality (chloroplast transformation, male sterility) would be compromised (in absolute terms) by seed-mediated gene flow leading to chloroplast capture. Even in these circumstances, however, it can be argued that biocontainment still represses transgene movement, with the efficacy depending on the relative frequency of seed-and pollen-mediated gene flow. In this study, we screened for crop-specific chloroplast markers from rapeseed (Brassica napus) amongst sympatric and allopatric populations of wild B. oleracea in natural cliff-top populations and B. rapa in riverside and weedy populations. We found only modest crop chloroplast presence in wild B. oleracea and in weedy B. rapa, but a surprisingly high incidence in sympatric (but not in allopatric) riverside B. rapa populations. Chloroplast inheritance models indicate that elevated crop chloroplast acquisition is best explained if crop cytoplasm confers selective advantage in riverside B. rapa populations. Our results therefore imply that chloroplast transformation may slow transgene recruitment in two settings, but actually accelerate transgene spread in a third. This finding suggests that the appropriateness of chloroplast transformation for biocontainment policy depends on both context and geographical location.

Local adaptation in moss life histories: population-level variation and a reciprocal transplant experiment

We examine the extent of population-level differentiation in life history traits of Pogonatum aloides, Polytrichum commune and Polytrichum juniperinum (Polytrichaceae) between upland and lowland localities within Britain. Reciprocal transplant studies are used to estimate the relative importance of genetic versus environmental effects on observed differences. We demonstrate significant life history differentiation between moss populations, and show that at least some of these are genetically determined, although environment and phenotypic plasticity are also significant components of the observed variation. The transplant experiments indicate divergence among populations in plasticity of male reproductive effort and of investment in vegetative shoots by females. Two tradeoffs are identified; one between the number and the size of spores, and the second between reproduction by spores versus vegetative reproduction. The patterns of life history variation observed between populations of Polytrichum juniperinum are consistent with selection along these implied tradeoff curves, and we propose that they reflect selective pressures arising from the spatial and demographic distribution of mortality at upland versus lowland sites. The results underscore the need for more studies of intra-specific life history variation in mosses.

Dietary glycated protein modulates the colonic microbiota towards a more detrimental composition in ulcerative colitis patients and non-ulcerative colitis subjects

AIM: To investigate the effect of native, heated and glycated bovine serum albumin (BSA) on the ulcerative colitis (UC) and non-UC colonic microbiota in vitro. METHODS AND RESULTS: Continuous flow culture (CFC) models of the human colonic microbiota inoculated with faeces from UC and non-UC volunteers were maintained on BSA as growth substrate. Changes in bacterial populations and short-chain fatty acids were determined. UC and non-UC microbiota differed significantly in microbial populations, with elevated numbers of sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) and clostridia in the microbiota from UC patients. Compared with native BSA, glycated BSA modulated the gut microbiota of UC patients in vitro towards a more detrimental community structure with significant increases in putatively harmful bacteria (clostridia, bacteroides and SRB; P < 0.009) and decreases in dominant and putatively beneficial bacterial groups (eubacteria and bifidobacteria; P < 0.0004). The levels of beneficial short-chain fatty acids were significantly decreased by heated or glycated BSA, but were increased significantly by native BSA. CONCLUSION: The UC colonic microbiota maintained in CFC was significantly modified by glycated BSA. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Results suggest that dietary glycated protein may impact upon the composition and activity of the colonic microbiota, an important environmental variable in UC.

Activity patterns of urban red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) reduce the risk of traffic-induced mortality

Traffic collisions can be a major source of mortality in wild populations, and animals may be expected to exhibit behavioral mechanisms that reduce the risk associated with crossing roads. Animals living in urban areas in particular have to negotiate very dense road networks, often with high levels of traffic flow. We examined traffic-related mortality of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in the city of Bristol, UK, and the extent to which roads affected fox activity by comparing real and randomly generated patterns of movement. There were significant seasonal differences in the number of traffic-related fox deaths for different age and sex classes; peaks were associated with periods when individuals were likely to be moving through unfamiliar terrain and would have had to cross major roads. Mortality rates per unit road length increased with road magnitude. The number of roads crossed by foxes and the rate at which roads were crossed per hour of activity increased after midnight when traffic flow was lower. Adults and juveniles crossed 17% and 30% fewer roads, respectively, than expected from randomly generated movement. This highly mobile species appeared to reduce the mortality risk of minor category roads by changing its activity patterns, but it remained vulnerable to the effects of larger roads with higher traffic flows during periods associated with extraterritorial movements.