Initial distribution spread: A density forecasting approach

Ensemble forecasting of nonlinear systems involves the use of a model to run forward a discrete ensemble (or set) of initial states. Data assimilation techniques tend to focus on estimating the true state of the system, even though model error limits the value of such efforts. This paper argues for choosing the initial ensemble in order to optimise forecasting performance rather than estimate the true state of the system. Density forecasting and choosing the initial ensemble are treated as one problem. Forecasting performance can be quantified by some scoring rule. In the case of the logarithmic scoring rule, theoretical arguments and empirical results are presented. It turns out that, if the underlying noise dominates model error, we can diagnose the noise spread.

DMP XV palaeohydrology and palaeoenvironment: initial results and report of 2010 and 2011 fieldwork

This paper reports the results of fieldwork conducted in the 2010 and 2011 DMP field seasons and of analysis of samples collected during these and previous years. Research has involved 1) studying palaeolake sediment outcrops, 2) using ground penetrating radar (GPR) to determine their extent under the Dahān Ubārī, and 3) coring palaeolakes in order to determine their palaeoenvironmental records. Research on these samples is continuing but some initial findings are discussed in this paper. The most extensive palaeolake sediments are found within the al-Mahruqah Formation and were deposited by a giant lake system that developed in the Fazzān Basin during past humid periods. Stratigraphic analysis of Lake Megafazzān sediments suggests two different sedimentary successions, a lake margin succession distinctive for its lacustrine and palaeosol carbonates, and a clastic-dominated, intensely rootleted, basin-centre succession which has terrestrial intervals (aeolian and palaeosols) as well as in the upper parts lacustrine limestones. Both basin margin and basin centre successions are underlain by fluvial deposits. Magnetostratigraphy suggests that the formation may be as old as the mid-Pliocene. After the Lake Megafazzān phase, smaller palaeolakes developed within the basin during subsequent humid periods. One of the largest is found in the Wādī al-Hayāt in the area between Jarma and Ubārī. Similar deposits further west along the Wādī at progressively higher altitudes are interpreted as small lakes and marshes fed by springs issuing from aquifers at the base of the escarpment, last replenished during the Holocene humid phase. Dating of sediments suggests that this was between c. 11 and c. 8 ka. The Wādī ash-Shāţī palaeolake core also provides a Holocene palaeoclimate record that paints a slightly different picture, indicating lake conditions until around 7 ka, whereupon it started oscillating until around 5.5 ka when sedimentation terminates. The reasons for the differences in these records are discussed.

Well-posed two-point initial-boundary value problems with arbitrary boundary conditions

We study initial-boundary value problems for linear evolution equations of arbitrary spatial order, subject to arbitrary linear boundary conditions and posed on a rectangular 1-space, 1-time domain. We give a new characterisation of the boundary conditions that specify well-posed problems using Fokas' transform method. We also give a sufficient condition guaranteeing that the solution can be represented using a series. The relevant condition, the analyticity at infinity of certain meromorphic functions within particular sectors, is significantly more concrete and easier to test than the previous criterion, based on the existence of admissible functions.

Transition of pupils from Key Stage 2 to 3 deemed gifted and talented in mathematics: an initial study

In this article Geoff Tennant and Dave Harries report on the early stages of a research project looking to examine the transition from Key Stage (KS) 2 to 3 of children deemed Gifted and Talented (G&T) in mathematics. An examination of relevant literature points towards variation in definition of key terms and underlying rationale for activities. Preliminary fieldwork points towards a lack of meaningful communication between schools, with primary school teachers in particular left to themselves to decide how to work with children deemed G&T. Some pointers for action are given, along with ideas for future research and a request for colleagues interested in working with us to get in touch.

Where do drama teacher’s come from? Initial investigations into the formation of professional identity

The article reports on research into what may have influenced trainees on four post-graduate teacher training courses in England to become specialist drama teachers rather than pursue careers in the world of professional entertainment. It goes on to explore how the trainees regarded an understanding of performance, and an ability to both use and demonstrate performance techniques, as integral to their professional role. The subsequent discussion examines how a drama teacher’s professional identity may be seen as being made up of the three inter-connected elements, self, role and character. While all teaching may be regarded as a performing art, this paper suggests that, for the drama specialist, an understanding of what constitutes ‘performance’ has a particular importance. A conclusion drawn from the research is that recognising the place of performance in their practice may result in experienced teachers of drama regarding themselves as artists whose art is teaching drama.

The initial return performance of UK property company IPOs

This paper presents empirical evidence for a sample of 48 UK property company initial public offerings over the period 1986 to 1995. From which a number of conclusions can be drawn. First, property companies in general show positive average first day returns. Second, the average first day return by property trading companies is significantly higher than that for property investment companies

An Examination of the factors that shape the subjectivities of female art students in Initial Teacher Training

The school subject of Art and the profession of the primary school teacher are gendered female and both are considered low status within the field of Education and other professional areas of society. A number of sociological studies have examined the impact of gendered socialisation and habitus on females’ career choices and various educational initiatives have been put in place over the years to encourage females to select subjects and/or pursue career paths normally associated with males. Yet Art and primary school teaching continue to be a popular choice with middle class girls. Based on a critical ethnographic study of female BAED Art students, who are training to be primary school teachers, this study is an examination of the many factors, historically and contemporaneously that have shaped and continue to shape the subjectivities of females and frame their aspirations and ambitions. Within this discourse significant aspects of the history of Art and Art Education that have contributed to and influenced the construction of the female artist, and their consequent impact on artistically talented females’ personal identity as artists, are also examined.

Role of glutamate metabolism in bacterial responses towards acid and other stresses

Glutamate plays a central role in a wide range of metabolic processes in bacterial cells. This review focuses on the involvement of glutamate in bacterial stress responses. In particular it reviews the role of glutamate metabolism in response against acid stress and other stresses. The glutamate decarboxylase (GAD) system has been implicated in acid tolerance in several bacterial genera. This system facilitates intracellular pH homeostasis by consuming protons in a decarboxylation reaction that produces γ-aminobutyrate (GABA) from glutamate. An antiporter system is usually present to couple the uptake of glutamate to the efflux of GABA. Recent insights into the functioning of this system will be discussed. Finally the intracellular fate of GABA will also be discussed. Many bacteria are capable of metabolising GABA to succinate via the GABA shunt pathway. The role and regulation of this pathway will be addressed in the review. © 2012 The Authors Journal of Applied Microbiology © 2012 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Effect of pH, temperature and surface contact on the elaboration of fimbriae and flagella by Salmonella serotype Enteritidis

Survival of enteric pathogens exposed to various environmental stresses depends upon a number of protective responses, some of which are associated with induction of virulence determinants. Flagella and fimbriae are putative virulence determinants of Salmonella spp, and ELISAs specific for the detection of flagella and SEF21, SEF14 and SEF17 fimbriae were used to assess the effect of temperature and pH upon their elaboration by isolates of Salmonella serotype Enteritidis in planktonic growth and on the surface of two-dimensional gradient agar plates, For three phage type 4 isolates of Enteritidis of comparative clinical provenance, similar phenotypes for the elaboration of these surface antigens were observed. SEF14 fimbriae were elaborated in planktonic growth at 37 degrees C, but not 20 degrees C, at pH 4.77 and above but not at pH 4.04; whereas on agar gradient plates SEF14 fimbriae were elaborated poorly but with best yields at pH 4.04, SEF17 fimbriae were elaborated in planktonic growth at 20 degrees C, but not at 37 degrees C, at pH 6.18 and above but not at pH 5.09 or below; whereas on agar gradient plates SEF17 fimbriae were elaborated well even at pH 4.65, SEF21 fimbriae were expressed very poorly under all conditions tested, Planktonic growth at 37 degrees C induced least flagella whereas growth at 20 degrees C, and particularly surface growth at lower pH values, induced a 'hyper-flagellate' phenotype, Single colonies allowed to form on gradient agar plates were shown to generate different colonial morphologies which were dependent on initial pH. These results demonstrate that the physicochemical environment is an important determinant of bacterial response, especially the induction of putative virulence factors.

Assessment of thought–shape fusion: initial validation of a short version of the trait thought–shape fusion scale

Objective: Thought–shape fusion (TSF) is a cognitive distortion that has been linked to eating pathology. Two studies were conducted to further explore this phenomenon and to establish the psychometric properties of a French short version of the TSF scale. Method: In Study 1, students (n 5 284) completed questionnaires assessing TSF and related psychopathology. In Study 2, the responses of women with eating disorders (n 5 22) and women with no history of an eating disorder (n 5 23) were compared. Results: The French short version of the TSF scale has a unifactorial structure, with convergent validity with measures of eating pathology, and good internal consistency. Depression, eating pathology, body dissatisfaction, and thought-action fusion emerged as predictors of TSF. Individuals with eating disorders have higher TSF, and more clinically relevant food-related thoughts than do women with no history of an eating disorder. Discussion: This research suggests that the shortened TSF scale can suitably measure this construct, and provides support for the notion that TSF is associated with eating pathology.

Growth rate and vertical propagation of the initial error in baroclinic models

The present study investigates the growth of error in baroclinic waves. It is found that stable or neutral waves are particularly sensitive to errors in the initial condition. Short stable waves are mainly sensitive to phase errors and the ultra long waves to amplitude errors. Analysis simulation experiments have indicated that the amplitudes of the very long waves become usually too small in the free atmosphere, due to the sparse and very irregular distribution of upper air observations. This also applies to the four-dimensional data assimilation experiments, since the amplitudes of the very long waves are usually underpredicted. The numerical experiments reported here show that if the very long waves have these kinds of amplitude errors in the upper troposphere or lower stratosphere the error is rapidly propagated (within a day or two) to the surface and to the lower troposphere.