An extension of an over-dispersion test for count data

While over-dispersion in capture–recapture studies is well known to lead to poor estimation of population size, current diagnostic tools to detect the presence of heterogeneity have not been specifically developed for capture–recapture studies. To address this, a simple and efficient method of testing for over-dispersion in zero-truncated count data is developed and evaluated. The proposed method generalizes an over-dispersion test previously suggested for un-truncated count data and may also be used for testing residual over-dispersion in zero-inflation data. Simulations suggest that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is standard normal and that this approximation is also reasonable for small sample sizes. The method is also shown to be more efficient than an existing test for over-dispersion adapted for the capture–recapture setting. Studies with zero-truncated and zero-inflated count data are used to illustrate the test procedures.

Modelling the lava dome extruded at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, August 2005–May 2006. Part I: Dome shape and internal structure

Lava domes comprise core, carapace, and clastic talus components. They can grow endogenously by inflation of a core and/or exogenously with the extrusion of shear bounded lobes and whaleback lobes at the surface. Internal structure is paramount in determining the extent to which lava dome growth evolves stably, or conversely the propensity for collapse. The more core lava that exists within a dome, in both relative and absolute terms, the more explosive energy is available, both for large pyroclastic flows following collapse and in particular for lateral blast events following very rapid removal of lateral support to the dome. Knowledge of the location of the core lava within the dome is also relevant for hazard assessment purposes. A spreading toe, or lobe of core lava, over a talus substrate may be both relatively unstable and likely to accelerate to more violent activity during the early phases of a retrogressive collapse. Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat has been erupting since 1995 and has produced numerous lava domes that have undergone repeated collapse events. We consider one continuous dome growth period, from August 2005 to May 2006 that resulted in a dome collapse event on 20th May 2006. The collapse event lasted 3 h, removing the whole dome plus dome remnants from a previous growth period in an unusually violent and rapid collapse event. We use an axisymmetrical computational Finite Element Method model for the growth and evolution of a lava dome. Our model comprises evolving core, carapace and talus components based on axisymmetrical endogenous dome growth, which permits us to model the interface between talus and core. Despite explicitly only modelling axisymmetrical endogenous dome growth our core–talus model simulates many of the observed growth characteristics of the 2005–2006 SHV lava dome well. Further, it is possible for our simulations to replicate large-scale exogenous characteristics when a considerable volume of talus has accumulated around the lower flanks of the dome. Model results suggest that dome core can override talus within a growing dome, potentially generating a region of significant weakness and a potential locus for collapse initiation.

Linkage disequilibrium assessment via log-linear modeling of SNP haplotype frequencies

Analyses of high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, such as genetic mapping and linkage disequilibrium (LD) studies, require phase-known haplotypes to allow for the correlation between tightly linked loci. However, current SNP genotyping technology cannot determine phase, which must be inferred statistically. In this paper, we present a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for population haplotype frequency estimation, particulary in the context of LD assessment. The novel feature of the method is the incorporation of a log-linear prior model for population haplotype frequencies. We present simulations to suggest that 1) the log-linear prior model is more appropriate than the standard coalescent process in the presence of recombination (>0.02cM between adjacent loci), and 2) there is substantial inflation in measures of LD obtained by a "two-stage" approach to the analysis by treating the "best" haplotype configuration as correct, without regard to uncertainty in the recombination process. Genet Epidemiol 25:106-114, 2003. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Comparison of small and large deformation rheological properties of wheat dough and gluten

The rheological properties of dough and gluten are important for end-use quality of flour but there is a lack of knowledge of the relationships between fundamental and empirical tests and how they relate to flour composition and gluten quality. Dough and gluten from six breadmaking wheat qualities were subjected to a range of rheological tests. Fundamental (small-deformation) rheological characterizations (dynamic oscillatory shear and creep recovery) were performed on gluten to avoid the nonlinear influence of the starch component, whereas large deformation tests were conducted on both dough and gluten. A number of variables from the various curves were considered and subjected to a principal component analysis (PCA) to get an overview of relationships between the various variables. The first component represented variability in protein quality, associated with elasticity and tenacity in large deformation (large positive loadings for resistance to extension and initial slope of dough and gluten extension curves recorded by the SMS/Kieffer dough and gluten extensibility rig, and the tenacity and strain hardening index of dough measured by the Dobraszczyk/Roberts dough inflation system), the elastic character of the hydrated gluten proteins (large positive loading for elastic modulus [G'], large negative loadings for tan delta and steady state compliance [J(e)(0)]), the presence of high molecular weight glutenin subunits (HMW-GS) 5+10 vs. 2+12, and a size distribution of glutenin polymers shifted toward the high-end range. The second principal component was associated with flour protein content. Certain rheological data were influenced by protein content in addition to protein quality (area under dough extension curves and dough inflation curves [W]). The approach made it possible to bridge the gap between fundamental rheological properties, empirical measurements of physical properties, protein composition, and size distribution. The interpretation of this study gave indications of the molecular basis for differences in breadmaking performance.

Wheat protein quality in relation to baking performance evaluated by the Chorleywood bread process and a hearth bread baking test

The relationships between wheat protein quality and baking properties of 20 flour samples were studied for two breadmaking processes; a hearth bread test and the Chorleywood Bread Process (CBP). The strain hardening index obtained from dough inflation measurements, the proportion of unextractable polymeric protein, and mixing properties were among the variables found to be good indicators of protein quality and suitable for predicting potential baking quality of wheat flours. By partial least squares regression, flour and dough test variables were able to account for 71-93% of the variation in crumb texture, form ratio and volume of hearth loaves made using optimal mixing and fixed proving times. These protein quality variables were, however, not related to the volume of loaves produced by the CBP using mixing to constant work input and proving to constant height. On the other hand, variation in crumb texture of CBP loaves (54-55%) could be explained by protein quality. The results underline that the choice of baking procedure and loaf characteristics is vital in assessing the protein quality of flours. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of predictions of baking volume using large deformation rheological properties

Three large deformation rheological tests, the Kieffer dough extensibility system, the D/R dough inflation system and the 2 g mixograph test, were carried out on doughs made from a large number of winter wheat lines and cultivars grown in Poland. These lines and cultivars represented a broad spread in baking performance in order to assess their suitability as predictors of baking volume. The parameters most closely associated with baking volume were strain hardening index, bubble failure strain, and mixograph bandwidth at 10min. Simple correlations with baking volume indicate that bubble failure strain and strain hardening index give the highest correlations, whilst the use of best subsets regression, which selects the best combination of parameters, gave increased correlations with R-2 = 0.865 for dough inflation parameters, R-2 = 0. 842 for Kieffer parameters and R-2 = 0.760 for mixograph parameters. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neural competition for conscious representation across time: An fMRI study

Background The information processing capacity of the human mind is limited, as is evidenced by the attentional blink (AB) - a deficit in identifying the second of two temporally-close targets (T1 and T2) embedded in a rapid stream of distracters. Theories of the AB generally agree that it results from competition between stimuli for conscious representation. However, they disagree in the specific mechanisms, in particular about how attentional processing of T1 determines the AB to T2. Methodology/Principal Findings The present study used the high spatial resolution of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine the neural mechanisms underlying the AB. Our research approach was to design T1 and T2 stimuli that activate distinguishable brain areas involved in visual categorization and representation. ROI and functional connectivity analyses were then used to examine how attentional processing of T1, as indexed by activity in the T1 representation area, affected T2 processing. Our main finding was that attentional processing of T1 at the level of the visual cortex predicted T2 detection rates Those individuals who activated the T1 encoding area more strongly in blink versus no-blink trials generally detected T2 on a lower percentage of trials. The coupling of activity between T1 and T2 representation areas did not vary as a function of conscious T2 perception. Conclusions/Significance These data are consistent with the notion that the AB is related to attentional demands of T1 for selection, and indicate that these demands are reflected at the level of visual cortex. They also highlight the importance of individual differences in attentional settings in explaining AB task performance.

Flexible rules cum constrained discretion: a new consensus in monetary policy

This paper demonstrates that recent influential contributions to monetary policy imply an emerging consensus whereby neither rigid rules nor complete discretion are found optimal. Instead, middle-ground monetary regimes based on rules (operative under 'normal' circumstances) to anchor inflation expectations over the long run, but designed with enough flexibility to mitigate the short-run effect of shocks (with communicated discretion in 'exceptional' circumstances temporarily overriding these rules), are gaining support in theoretical models and policy formulation and implementation. The opposition of 'rules versus discretion' has, thus, reappeared as the synthesis of 'rules cum discretion', in essence as inflation-forecast targeting. But such synthesis is not without major theoretical problems, as we argue in this contribution. Furthermore, the very recent real-world events have made it obvious that the inflation targeting strategy of monetary policy, which rests upon the new consensus paradigm in modern macroeconomics is at best a 'fair weather' model. In the turbulent economic climate of highly unstable inflation, deep financial crisis and world-wide, abrupt economic slowdown nowadays this approach needs serious rethinking to say the least, if not abandoning it altogether

Electrophysiological correlates of spatial orienting towards angry faces: a source localization study

The goal of this study was to examine behavioral and electrophysiological correlates of involuntary orienting toward rapidly presented angry faces in non-anxious, healthy adults using a dot-probe task in conjunction with high-density event-related potentials and a distributed source localization technique. Consistent with previous studies, participants showed hypervigilance toward angry faces, as indexed by facilitated response time for validly cued probes following angry faces and an enhanced P1 component. An opposite pattern was found for happy faces suggesting that attention was directed toward the relatively more threatening stimuli within the visual field (neutral faces). Source localization of the P1 effect for angry faces indicated increased activity within the anterior cingulate cortex, possibly reflecting conflict experienced during invalidly cued trials. No modulation of the early C1 component was found for affect or spatial attention. Furthermore, the face-sensitive N170 was not modulated by emotional expression. Results suggest that the earliest modulation of spatial attention by face stimuli is manifested in the P1 component, and provide insights about mechanisms underlying attentional orienting toward cues of threat and social disapproval.

Intrinsic chess rating

This paper develops and tests formulas for representing playing strength at chess by the quality of moves played, rather than by the results of games. Intrinsic quality is estimated via evaluations given by computer chess programs run to high depth, ideally so that their playing strength is sufficiently far ahead of the best human players as to be a `relatively omniscient' guide. Several formulas, each having intrinsic skill parameters s for `sensitivity' and c for `consistency', are argued theoretically and tested by regression on large sets of tournament games played by humans of varying strength as measured by the internationally standard Elo rating system. This establishes a correspondence between Elo rating and the parameters. A smooth correspondence is shown between statistical results and the century points on the Elo scale, and ratings are shown to have stayed quite constant over time. That is, there has been little or no `rating inflation'. The theory and empirical results are transferable to other rational-choice settings in which the alternatives have well-defined utilities, but in which complexity and bounded information constrain the perception of the utility values.

Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments

This paper assesses the relationship between amount of climate forcing – as indexed by global mean temperature change – and hydrological response in a sample of UK catchments. It constructs climate scenarios representing different changes in global mean temperature from an ensemble of 21 climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4. The results show a considerable range in impact between the 21 climate models, with – for example - change in summer runoff at a 2oC increase in global mean temperature varying between -40% and +20%. There is evidence of clustering in the results, particularly in projected changes in summer runoff and indicators of low flows, implying that the ensemble mean is not an appropriate generalised indicator of impact, and that the standard deviation of responses does not adequately characterise uncertainty. The uncertainty in hydrological impact is therefore best characterised by considering the shape of the distribution of responses across multiple climate scenarios. For some climate model patterns, and some catchments, there is also evidence that linear climate change forcings produce non-linear hydrological impacts. For most variables and catchments, the effects of climate change are apparent above the effects of natural multi-decadal variability with an increase in global mean temperature above 1oC, but there are differences between catchments. Based on the scenarios represented in the ensemble, the effect of climate change in northern upland catchments will be seen soonest in indicators of high flows, but in southern catchments effects will be apparent soonest in measures of summer and low flows. The uncertainty in response between different climate model patterns is considerably greater than the range due to uncertainty in hydrological model parameterisation.

Measuring the response of macroeconomic uncertainty to shocks

Recent research documents the importance of uncertainty in determining macroeconomic outcomes, but little is known about the transmission of uncertainty across such outcomes. This paper examines the response of uncertainty about inflation and output growth to shocks documenting statistically significant size and sign bias and spillover effects. Uncertainty about inflation is a determinant of output uncertainty, whereas higher growth volatility tends to raise inflation volatility. Both inflation and growth volatility respond asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks. Negative growth and inflation shocks lead to higher and more persistent uncertainty than shocks of equal magnitude but opposite sign.

The impact of 9/11 on US REIT returns: fundamental or financial?

Following the attack on the World Trade Center on 9/11 volatility of daily returns of the US stock market rose sharply. This increase in volatility may reflect fundamental changes in the economic determinants of prices such as expected earnings, interest rates, real growth and inflation. Alternatively, the increase in volatility may simply reflect the effects of increased uncertainty in the financial markets. This study therefore sets out to determine if the effects of the attack on the World Trade Center on 9/11 had a fundamental or purely financial impact on US real estate returns. In order to do this we compare pre- and post-9/11 crisis returns for a number of US REIT indexes using an approach suggested by French and Roll (1986), as extended by Tuluca et al (2003). In general we find no evidence that the effects of 9/11 had a fundamental effect on REIT returns. In other words, we find that the effect of the attack on the World Trade Center on 9/11 had only a financial effect on REIT returns and therefore was transitory.

Bottom-up, not top-down, modulation of imitation by human and robotic models

Visual observation of human actions provokes more motor activation than observation of robotic actions. We investigated the extent to which this visuomotor priming effect is mediated by bottom-up or top-down processing. The bottom-up hypothesis suggests that robotic movements are less effective in activating the ‘mirror system’ via pathways from visual areas via the superior temporal sulcus to parietal and premotor cortices. The top-down hypothesis postulates that beliefs about the animacy of a movement stimulus modulate mirror system activity via descending pathways from areas such as the temporal pole and prefrontal cortex. In an automatic imitation task, subjects performed a prespecified movement (e.g. hand opening) on presentation of a human or robotic hand making a compatible (opening) or incompatible (closing) movement. The speed of responding on compatible trials, compared with incompatible trials, indexed visuomotor priming. In the first experiment, robotic stimuli were constructed by adding a metal and wire ‘wrist’ to a human hand. Questionnaire data indicated that subjects believed these movements to be less animate than those of the human stimuli but the visuomotor priming effects of the human and robotic stimuli did not differ. In the second experiment, when the robotic stimuli were more angular and symmetrical than the human stimuli, human movements elicited more visuomotor priming than the robotic movements. However, the subjects’ beliefs about the animacy of the stimuli did not affect their performance. These results suggest that bottom-up processing is primarily responsible for the visuomotor priming advantage of human stimuli.

Amygdalar function reflects common individual differences in emotion and pain regulation success

Although the co-occurrence of negative affect and pain is well recognized, the mechanism underlying their association is unclear. To examine whether a common self-regulatory ability impacts the experience of both emotion and pain, we integrated neuroimaging, behavioral, and physiological measures obtained from three assessments separated by substantial temporal intervals. Out results demonstrated that individual differences in emotion regulation ability, as indexed by an objective measure of emotional state, corrugator electromyography, predicted self-reported success while regulating pain. In both emotion and pain paradigms, the amygdala reflected regulatory success. Notably, we found that greater emotion regulation success was associated with greater change of amygdalar activity following pain regulation. Furthermore, individual differences in degree of amygdalar change following emotion regulation were a strong predictor of pain regulation success, as well as of the degree of amygdalar engagement following pain regulation. These findings suggest that common individual differences in emotion and pain regulatory success are reflected in a neural structure known to contribute to appraisal processes.