Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment UK with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD

The potential impact of climate change on areas of strategic importance for water resources remains a concern. Here, river flow projections for the River Medway, above Teston in southeast England are presented, which is just such an area of strategic importance. The river flow projections use climate inputs from the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3) for the time period 1960–2080 (a subset of the early release UKCP09 projections). River flow predictions are calculated using CATCHMOD, the main river flow prediction tool of the Environment Agency (EA) of England and Wales. In order to use this tool in the best way for climate change predictions, model setup and performance are analysed using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The model's representation of hydrological processes is discussed and the direct percolation and first linear storage constant parameters are found to strongly affect model results in a complex way, with the former more important for low flows and the latter for high flows. The uncertainty in predictions resulting from the hydrological model parameters is demonstrated and the projections of river flow under future climate are analysed. A clear climate change impact signal is evident in the results with a persistent lowering of mean daily river flows for all months and for all projection time slices. Results indicate that a projection of lower flows under future climate is valid even taking into account the uncertainties considered in this modelling chain exercise. The model parameter uncertainty becomes more significant under future climate as the river flows become lower. This has significant implications for those making policy decisions based on such modelling results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Aerosol impacts on drizzle properties in warm clouds from ARM Mobile Facility maritime and continental deployments

We have extensively evaluated the response of cloud-base drizzle rate (Rcb; mm day–1) in warm clouds to liquid water path (LWP; g m–2) and to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration (NCCN; cm–3), an aerosol proxy. This evaluation is based on a 19-month long dataset of Doppler radar, lidar, microwave radiometers and aerosol observing systems from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility deployments at the Azores and in Germany. Assuming 0.55% supersaturation to calculate NCCN, we found a power law , indicating that Rcb decreases by a factor of 2–3 as NCCN increases from 200 to 1000 cm–3 for fixed LWP. Additionally, the precipitation susceptibility to NCCN ranges between 0.5 and 0.9, in agreement with values from simulations and aircraft measurements. Surprisingly, the susceptibility of the probability of precipitation from our analysis is much higher than that from CloudSat estimates, but agrees well with simulations from a multi-scale high-resolution aerosol-climate model. Although scale issues are not completely resolved in the intercomparisons, our results are encouraging, suggesting that it is possible for multi-scale models to accurately simulate the response of LWP to aerosol perturbations.

Impact of postprandial glycaemia on health and prevention of disease

Postprandial glucose, together with related hyperinsulinemia and lipidaemia, has been implicated in the development of chronic metabolic diseases like obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). In this review, available evidence is discussed on postprandial glucose in relation to body weight control, the development of oxidative stress, T2DM, and CVD and in maintaining optimal exercise and cognitive performance. There is mechanistic evidence linking postprandial glycaemia or glycaemic variability to the development of these conditions or in the impairment in cognitive and exercise performance. Nevertheless, postprandial glycaemia is interrelated with many other (risk) factors as well as to fasting glucose. In many studies, meal-related glycaemic response is not sufficiently characterized, or the methodology with respect to the description of food or meal composition, or the duration of the measurement of postprandial glycaemia is limited. It is evident that more randomized controlled dietary intervention trials using effective low vs. high glucose response diets are necessary in order to draw more definite conclusions on the role of postprandial glycaemia in relation to health and disease. Also of importance is the evaluation of the potential role of the time course of postprandial glycaemia.

Massive Open Online Courses on health and medicine: review

Background: Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have become immensely popular in a short span of time. However, there is very little research exploring MOOCs in the discipline of Health and Medicine. This paper is aimed to fill this void by providing a review of Health and Medicine related MOOCs. Objective: Provide a review of Health and Medicine related MOOCs offered by various MOOC platforms within the year 2013. Analyze and compare the various offerings, their target audience, typical length of a course and credentials offered. Discuss opportunities and challenges presented by MOOCs in the discipline of Health and Medicine. Methods: Health and Medicine related MOOCs were gathered using several methods to ensure the richness and completeness of data. Identified MOOC platform websites were used to gather the lists of offerings. In parallel, these MOOC platforms were contacted to access official data on their offerings. Two MOOC aggregator sites (Class Central and MOOC List) were also consulted to gather data on MOOC offerings. Eligibility criteria were defined to concentrate on the courses that were offered in 2013 and primarily on the subject ‘Health and Medicine’. All language translations in this paper were achieved using Google Translate. Results: The search identified 225 courses out of which 98 were eligible for the review (n = 98). 58% (57) of the MOOCs considered were offered on the Coursera platform and 94% (92) of all the MOOCs were offered in English. 90 MOOCs were offered by universities and the John Hopkins University offered the largest number of MOOCs (12). Only three MOOCs were offered by developing countries (China, West Indies, and Saudi Arabia). The duration of MOOCs varied from three weeks to 20 weeks with an average length of 6.7 weeks. On average MOOCs expected a participant to work on the material for 4.2 hours a week. Verified Certificates were offered by 14 MOOCs while three others offered other professional recognition. Conclusions: The review presents evidence to suggest that MOOCs can be used as a way to provide continuous medical education. It also shows the potential of MOOCs as a means of increasing health literacy among the public.

The inclusion of forage mixtures in the diet of growing dairy heifers: impacts on digestion, energy utilisation, and methane emissions

Intensive farming focusing on monoculture grass species to maximise forage production has led to a reduction in the extent and diversity of species-rich grasslands. However, plant communities with higher species number (richness) are a potential strategy for more sustainable production and mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Research has indicated the need to understand opportunities that forage mixtures can offer sustainable ruminant production systems. The objective of the two experiments reported here were to evaluate multiple species forage mixtures in comparison to ryegrass-dominant pasture, when conserved or grazed, on digestion, energy utilisation, N excretion, and methane emissions by growing 10–15 month old heifers. Experiment 1 was a 4 × 4 Latin square design with five week periods. Four forage treatments of: (1) ryegrass (control); permanent pasture with perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne); (2) clover; a ryegrass:red clover (Trifolium pratense) mixture; (3) trefoil; a ryegrass:birdsfoot trefoil (Lotus corniculatus) mixture; and (4) flowers; a ryegrass:wild flower mixture of predominately sorrel (Rumex acetosa), ox-eye daisy (Leucanthemum vulgare), yarrow (Achillea millefolium), knapweed (Centaurea nigra) and ribwort plantain (Plantago lanceolata), were fed as haylages to four dairy heifers. Measurements included digestibility, N excretion, and energy utilisation (including methane emissions measured in respiration chambers). Experiment 2 used 12 different dairy heifers grazing three of the same forage treatments used to make haylage in experiment 1 (ryegrass, clover and flowers) and methane emissions were estimated using the sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer technique. Distribution of ryegrass to other species (dry matter (DM) basis) was approximately 70:30 (clover), 80:20 (trefoil), and 40:60 (flowers) for experiment 1. During the first and second grazing rotations (respectively) in experiment 2, perennial ryegrass accounted for 95 and 98% of DM in ryegrass, and 84 and 52% of DM in clover, with red clover accounting for almost all of the remainder. In the flowers mixture, perennial ryegrass was 52% of the DM in the first grazing rotation and only 30% in the second, with a variety of other flower species occupying the remainder. Across both experiments, compared to the forage mixtures (clover, trefoil and flowers), ryegrass had a higher crude protein (CP) content (P < 0.001, 187 vs. 115 g kg −1 DM) and DM intake (P < 0.05, 9.0 vs. 8.1 kg day −1). Heifers in experiment 1 fed ryegrass, compared to the forage mixtures, had greater total tract digestibility (g kg −1) of DM (DMD; P < 0.008, 713 vs. 641) and CP (CPD, P < 0.001, 699 vs. 475), and used more intake energy (%) for body tissue deposition (P < 0.05, 2.6 vs. −4.9). For both experiments, heifers fed flowers differed the most compared to the ryegrass control for a number of measurements. Compared to ryegrass, flowers had 40% lower CP content (P < 0.001, 113 vs. 187 g kg −1), 18% lower DMD (P < 0.01, 585 vs. 713 g kg −1), 42% lower CPD (P < 0.001, 407 vs. 699 g kg −1), and 10% lower methane yield (P < 0.05, 22.6 vs. 25.1 g kg −1 DM intake). This study has shown inclusion of flowers in forage mixtures resulted in a lower CP concentration, digestibility and intake. These differences were due in part to sward management and maturity at harvest. Further research is needed to determine how best to exploit the potential environmental benefits of forage mixtures in sustainable ruminant production systems.

Land use and climate change impacts on soil organic carbon stocks in semi-arid Spain

Purpose The sensitivity of soil organic carbon to global change drivers, according to the depth profile, is receiving increasing attention because of its importance in the global carbon cycle and its potential feedback to climate change. A better knowledge of the vertical distribution of SOC and its controlling factors—the aim of this study—will help scientists predict the consequences of global change. Materials and methods The study area was the Murcia Province (S.E. Spain) under semiarid Mediterranean conditions. The database used consists of 312 soil profiles collected in a systematic grid, each 12 km2 covering a total area of 11,004 km2. Statistical analysis to study the relationships between SOC concentration and control factors in different soil use scenarios was conducted at fixed depths of 0–20, 20–40, 40–60, and 60–100 cm. Results and discussion SOC concentration in the top 40 cm ranged between 6.1 and 31.5 g kg−1, with significant differences according to land use, soil type and lithology, while below this depth, no differences were observed (SOC concentration 2.1–6.8 g kg−1). The ANOVA showed that land use was the most important factor controlling SOC concentration in the 0–40 cm depth. Significant differences were found in the relative importance of environmental and textural factors according to land use and soil depth. In forestland, mean annual precipitation and texture were the main predictors of SOC, while in cropland and shrubland, the main predictors were mean annual temperature and lithology. Total SOC stored in the top 1 m in the region was about 79 Tg with a low mean density of 7.18 kg Cm−3. The vertical distribution of SOC was shallower in forestland and deeper in cropland. A reduction in rainfall would lead to SOC decrease in forestland and shrubland, and an increase of mean annual temperature would adversely affect SOC in croplands and shrubland. With increasing depth, the relative importance of climatic factors decreases and texture becomes more important in controlling SOC in all land uses. Conclusions Due to climate change, impacts will be much greater in surface SOC, the strategies for C sequestration should be focused on subsoil sequestration, which was hindered in forestland due to bedrock limitations to soil depth. In these conditions, sequestration in cropland through appropriate management practices is recommended.

Re-creation of heathland on improved pasture using topsoil removal and sulphur amendments: edaphic drivers and impacts on ericoid mycorrhizas

Understanding the factors that drive successful re-creation and restoration of lowland heaths is crucially important for achieving the long-term conservation of this threatened habitat type. In this study we investigated the changes in soil chemistry, plant community and interactions between Calluna vulgaris and symbiotic ericoid mycorrhizas (ERM) that occurred when improved pasture was subjected to one of three treatments (i) acidification with elemental sulphur (ii) acidification with ferrous sulphur (iii) removal of the topsoil. We found that the soil stripping treatment produced the greatest reduction in available phosphate but did not decrease soil pH. Conversely, acidification with elemental sulphur decreased pH but increased availability of phosphate and potentially toxic cations. The elemental sulphur treatment produced plant communities that most closely resembled those on surrounding heaths and acid grasslands. The most important driver was low pH and concomitant increased availability of potentially toxic cations. Plant community development was found to be little related to levels of available soil phosphate, particularly at low pH. The elemental sulphur treatment also produced the best germination and growth of C. vulgaris over 4–5 years. However, this treatment was found to inhibit the development of symbiotic relationships between C. vulgaris and ERM. This may affect the long-term persistence of re-created vegetation and its interactions with other components of heathland communities.

Fungicide-resistance management tactics: impacts on Zymoseptoria tritici populations

Azoles and Succinate Dehydrogenase Inhibitors (SDHIs) are the main fungicides available for septoria tritici blotch control, causal agent Zymoseptoria tritici. Decline in azole sensitivity, in combination with European legislation, poses a threat to wheat production in Ireland. Azole fungicides select CYP51 mutations differentially; it was hypothesised that using combinations of azoles could be an effective anti-resistance tool. Naturally inoculated field experiments were carried out in order to understand the impacts of using combinations of azoles, epoxiconazole and metconazole, on azole sensitivity. Approximately 3700 isolates were isolated and their sensitivity to both azoles analysed. Findings showed that limiting the number of applications, by alternating each fungicide, slowed selection for reduced azole sensitivity. Limiting azole use by reducing doses did not reduce selection for decreased azole sensitivity. Although not complete, cross-resistance was observed between the two azoles, which will lead to general reduction in azole sensitivity. A sub-selection of isolates from each treatment at each location were analysed for changes in the CYP51 gene. Sequence analysis identified 49 combinations of mutations in the CYP51 gene, and three different inserts in the CYP51 promoter. Intragenic recombination also featured in these populations. Baseline studies of five new SDHIs were carried out on 209 naturally infected, non-SDHI-treated isolates. With the exception of fluopyram, cross-resistance was apparent between the SDHIs. Analysis of 2300 isolates found that when compared to the solo products, mixing the SDHI isopyrazam and the azole epoxiconazole increased epoxiconazole sensitivity, but had no apparent effect on isopyrazam sensitivity. SDHI resistance-conferring mutations were absent in the baseline and experimental isolates. As long as azoles are used, Z. tritici populations will continue to evolve towards resistance. Combining different modes-of-action, SDHIs and multi-sites, with azoles will relieve some of that selective pressure. To get the best out of available fungicides, they should be used in combination with host resistance and good crop management practices.

Simulating the impact on health of internalising the cost of carbon in food prices combined with a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages

Rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) have implications for health and up to 30 % of emissions globally are thought to arise from agriculture. Synergies exist between diets low in GHGEs and health however some foods have the opposite relationship, such as sugar production being a relatively low source of GHGEs. In order to address this and to further characterise a healthy sustainable diet, we model the effect on UK non-communicable disease mortality and GHGEs of internalising the social cost of carbon into the price of food alongside a 20 % tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). Developing previously published work, we simulate four tax scenarios: (A) a GHGEs tax of £2.86/tonne of CO2 equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product on all products with emissions greater than the mean across all food groups (0.36 kgCO2e/100 g); (B) scenario A but with subsidies on foods with emissions lower than 0.36 kgCO2e/100 g such that the effect is revenue neutral; (C) scenario A but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs; (D) scenario B but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs. An almost ideal demand system is used to estimate price elasticities and a comparative risk assessment model is used to estimate changes to non-communicable disease mortality. We estimate that scenario A would lead to 300 deaths delayed or averted, 18,900 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.0 billion tax revenue; scenario B, 90 deaths delayed or averted and 17,100 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs; scenario C, 1,200 deaths delayed or averted, 18,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.4 billion revenue; and scenario D, 2,000 deaths delayed or averted and 16,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs. Deaths averted are mainly due to increased fibre and reduced fat consumption; a SSB tax reduces SSB and sugar consumption. Incorporating the social cost of carbon into the price of food has the potential to improve health, reduce GHGEs, and raise revenue. The simple addition of a tax on SSBs can mitigate negative health consequences arising from sugar being low in GHGEs. Further conflicts remain, including increased consumption of unhealthy foods such as cakes and nutrients such as salt.

The DACCIWA project: dynamics-aerosol-chemistry-cloud interactions in West Africa

Massive economic and population growth, and urbanization are expected to lead to a tripling of anthropogenic emissions in southern West Africa (SWA) between 2000 and 2030. However, the impacts of this on human health, ecosystems, food security, and the regional climate are largely unknown. An integrated assessment is challenging due to (a) a superposition of regional effects with global climate change, (b) a strong dependence on the variable West African monsoon, (c) incomplete scientific understanding of interactions between emissions, clouds, radiation, precipitation, and regional circulations, and (d) a lack of observations. This article provides an overview of the DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project. DACCIWA will conduct extensive fieldwork in SWA to collect high-quality observations, spanning the entire process chain from surface-based natural and anthropogenic emissions to impacts on health, ecosystems, and climate. Combining the resulting benchmark dataset with a wide range of modeling activities will allow (a) assessment of relevant physical, chemical, and biological processes, (b) improvement of the monitoring of climate and atmospheric composition from space, and (c) development of the next generation of weather and climate models capable of representing coupled cloud-aerosol interactions. The latter will ultimately contribute to reduce uncertainties in climate predictions. DACCIWA collaborates closely with operational centers, international programs, policy-makers, and users to actively guide sustainable future planning for West Africa. It is hoped that some of DACCIWA’s scientific findings and technical developments will be applicable to other monsoon regions.

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealised, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all three models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation and run-off. Changes in precipitation and run-off patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ, consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker forcing signal, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.

An application of life-cycle assessment for environmental planning and management: the potential environmental and human health impacts of growing genetically-modified herbicide-tolerant sugar beet

Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) was used to assess the potential environmental and human health impacts of growing genetically-modified (GM), herbicide-tolerant sugar beet in the UK and Germany compared with conventional sugar beet varieties. The GM variety results in lower potential environmental impacts on global warming, airborne nutrification, ecotoxicity (of soil and water) and watercourse enrichment, and lower potential human health impacts in terms of production of toxic particulates, summer smog, carcinogens and ozone depletion. Although the overall contribution of GM sugar beet to reducing harmful emissions to the environment would be relatively small, the potential for GM crops to reduce pollution from agriculture, including diffuse water pollution, is highlighted.

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and estuaries. Invasion by alien species is highly likely, as is migration of species within the UK adapting to changing temperatures and flow regimes. Lower flows, reduced velocities and, hence, higher water residence times in rivers and lakes will enhance the potential for toxic algal blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Upland streams could experience increased dissolved organic carbon and colour levels, requiring action at water treatment plants to prevent toxic by-products entering public water supplies. Storms that terminate drought periods will flush nutrients from urban and rural areas or generate acid pulses in acidified upland catchments. Policy responses to climate change, such as the growth of bio-fuels or emission controls, will further impact freshwater quality.

Health Benefits of Organic Food: effects of the environment

Public concern over impacts of chemicals in plant and animal production on health and the environment has led to increased demand for organic produce, which is usually promoted and often perceived as containing fewer contaminants, more nutrients, and being positive for the environment. These benefits are difficult to quantify, and potential environmental impacts on such benefits have not been widely studied. This book addresses these key points, examining factors such as the role of certain nutrients in prevention and promotion of chronic disease, potential health benefits of bioactive compounds in plants, the prevalence of food-borne pesticides and pathogens and how both local and global environmental factors may affect any differences between organic and conventionally produced food. This book is an essential resource for researchers and students in human health and nutrition, environmental science, agriculture and organic farming. Main Contents 1. Organic farming and food systems: definitions and key characteristics. 2. The health benefits of n-3 fatty acids and their concentrations in organic and conventional animal-derived foods. 3. Environmental impacts on n-3 content of foods from ruminant animals. 4. Health benefits and selenium content of organic vs conventional foods. 5. Environmental impacts concerning the selenium content of foods. 6. Contaminants in organic and conventional food: the missing link between contaminant levels and health effects. 7. Mycotoxins in organic and conventional foods and effects of the environment. 8. Human pathogens in organic and conventional foods and effects of the environment. 9. What does consumer science tell us about organic foods? 10. The beneficial effects of dietary flavonoids: sources, bioavailability and biological functions. 11. Environmental regulation of flavonoid biosynthesis. 12. Nitrates in the human diet. 13. Impacts of environment and management on nitrate in vegetables and water. 14. Effects of the environment on the nutritional quality and safety of organically produced foods: Round-up and summary.