Uncertainty and feasibility studies: an Italian case study

Uncertainty affects all aspects of the property market but one area where the impact of uncertainty is particularly significant is within feasibility analyses. Any development is impacted by differences between market conditions at the conception of the project and the market realities at the time of completion. The feasibility study needs to address the possible outcomes based on an understanding of the current market. This requires the appraiser to forecast the most likely outcome relating to the sale price of the completed development, the construction costs and the timing of both. It also requires the appraiser to understand the impact of finance on the project. All these issues are time sensitive and analysis needs to be undertaken to show the impact of time to the viability of the project. The future is uncertain and a full feasibility analysis should be able to model the upside and downside risk pertaining to a range of possible outcomes. Feasibility studies are extensively used in Italy to determine land value but they tend to be single point analysis based upon a single set of “likely” inputs. In this paper we look at the practical impact of uncertainty in variables using a simulation model (Crystal Ball ©) with an actual case study of an urban redevelopment plan for an Italian Municipality. This allows the appraiser to address the issues of uncertainty involved and thus provide the decision maker with a better understanding of the risk of development. This technique is then refined using a “two-dimensional technique” to distinguish between “uncertainty” and “variability” and thus create a more robust model.

A comparison of the relative toxicity of bone meal and other P sources used as remedial treatments to the earthworm Eisenia fetida

It has been suggested that sources of P could be used to remediate metal-contaminated soil. The toxicity of four potential P sources, potassium hydrogen phosphate (PHP), triple superphosphate (TSP), rock phosphate (RP) and raw bone meal (RBM) to Eisenia fetida was determined. The concentration of P that is statistically likely to kill 50% of the population (LC50) for PHP, TSP and RBM was determined in OECD acute toxicity tests. 14 day LC50s expressed as bulk P concentration lay in the range 3319–4272 mg kg−1 for PHP, 3107–3590 mg kg−1 for TSP and 1782–2196 mg kg−1 for RBM (ranges present the 95% confidence intervals). For PHP and TSP mortality was significantly impacted by the electrical conductivity of the treated soils. No consistent relationship existed between mortality and electrical conductivity, soil pH and available (Olsen) P across the PHP, TSP and RBM amendment types. In RP toxicity tests mortality was low and it was not possible to determine a LC50 value. Incineration of bone meal at temperatures between 200 and 300 ◦C, pre-washing the bone meal, co-amendment with 5% green waste compost and delaying introduction of earthworms after bone meal amendments by 21 days or more led to significant reductions in the bone meal toxicity. These results are consistent with the toxicity being associated with the release and/or degradation of a soluble organic component present in raw bone meal. Bone meal can be used as an earthworm-friendly remedial amendment in metal-contaminated soils but initial additions may have a negative effect on any earthworms surviving in the contaminated soil before the organic component in the bone meal degrades in the soil.

'Agricultural poverty' and the expansion of artisanal mining in sub-Saharan Africa: Experiences from southwest Mali and southeast Ghana

Why do people engage in artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) – labour-intensive mineral extraction and processing activity – across sub-Saharan Africa? This paper argues that ‘agricultural poverty’, or hardship induced by an over-dependency on farming for survival, has fuelled the recent rapid expansion of ASM operations throughout the region. The diminished viability of smallholder farming in an era of globalization and overreliance on rain-fed crop production restricted by seasonality has led hundreds of thousands of rural African families to ‘branch out’ into ASM, a move made to secure supplementary incomes. Experiences from Komana West in Southwest Mali and East Akim District in Southeast Ghana are drawn upon to illustrate how a movement into the ASM economy has impacted farm families, economically, in many rural stretches of sub-Saharan Africa.

Holocene settlement shifts and paleoenvironments on the Central Iranian Plateau: investigating linked systems

For thousands of years, humans have inhabited locations that are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, earthquakes, and floods. In order to investigate the extent to which Holocene environmental changes may have impacted on cultural evolution, we present new geologic, geomorphic, and chronologic data from the Qazvin Plain in northwest Iran that provides a backdrop of natural environmental changes for the simultaneous cultural dynamics observed on the Central Iranian Plateau. Well-resolved archaeological data from the neighbouring settlements of Zagheh (7170—6300 yr BP), Ghabristan (6215—4950 yr BP) and Sagzabad (4050—2350 yr BP) indicate that Holocene occupation of the Hajiarab alluvial fan was interrupted by a 900 year settlement hiatus. Multiproxy climate data from nearby lakes in northwest Iran suggest a transition from arid early-Holocene conditions to more humid middle-Holocene conditions from c. 7550 to 6750 yr BP, coinciding with the settlement of Zagheh, and a peak in aridity at c. 4550 yr BP during the settlement hiatus. Palaeoseismic investigations indicate that large active fault systems in close proximity to the tell sites incurred a series of large (MW ~7.1) earthquakes with return periods of ~500—1000 years during human occupation of the tells. Mapping and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) chronology of the alluvial sequences reveals changes in depositional style from coarse-grained unconfined sheet flow deposits to proximal channel flow and distally prograding alluvial deposits sometime after c. 8830 yr BP, possibly reflecting an increase in moisture following the early-Holocene arid phase. The coincidence of major climate changes, earthquake activity, and varying sedimentation styles with changing patterns of human occupation on the Hajiarab fan indicate links between environmental and anthropogenic systems. However, temporal coincidence does not necessitate a fundamental causative dependency.

Incorporating creativity into teachers practice and self-concept of professional identity

The study explores what happens to teachers practice and ’ professional identity when they adopt a collaborative action research approach to teaching and involve external creative partners and a university mentor. The teachers aim to nurture and develop the creative potential of their learners through empowering them to make decisions for themselves about their own progress and learning directions. The teachers worked creatively and collaboratively designing creative teaching and learning methods in support of pupils with language and communication difficulties. The respondents are from an English special school, primary school and girls secondary school. A mixed methods methodology is adopted. Gains in teacher confidence and capability were identified in addition to shifts in values that impacted directly on their self-concept of what it is to be an effective teacher promoting effective learning. The development of their professional identities within a team ethos included them being able to make decisions about learning that are based on the educational potential of learners that they proved resulted in elevated standards achieved by this group of learners. They were able to justify their actions on established educational principles. Tensions however were revealed between what they perceived as their normal required professionalism imposed by external agencies and the enhanced professionalism experienced working through the project where they were able to integrate theory and practice.

Global responses of terrestrial productivity to contemporary climatic oscillations

The terrestrial biosphere is subjected to a wide range of natural climatic oscillations. Best known is the El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) that exerts globally extensive impacts on crops and natural vegetation. A 50-year time series of ENSO events has been analysed to determine those geographical areas that are reliably impacted by ENSO events. Most areas are impacted by changes in precipitation; however, the Pacific Northwest is warmed by El Niño events. Vegetation gross primary production (GPP) has been simulated for these areas, and tests well against independent satellite observations of the normalized difference vegetation index. Analyses of selected geographical areas indicate that changes in GPP often lead to significant changes in ecosystem structure and dynamics. The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is another climatic oscillation that originates from the Pacific and exerts global impacts that are rather similar to ENSO events. However, the longer period of the PDO provided two phases in the time series with a cool phase from 1951 to 1976 and a warm phase from 1977 to 2002. It was notable that the cool phase of the PDO acted additively with cool ENSO phases to exacerbate drought in the earlier period for the southwest USA. By contrast in India, the cool phase of the PDO appears to reduce the negative impacts of warm ENSO events on crop production.

Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation

Crop production is inherently sensitive to fluctuations in weather and climate and is expected to be impacted by climate change. To understand how this impact may vary across the globe many studies have been conducted to determine the change in yield of several crops to expected changes in climate. Changes in climate are typically derived from a single to no more than a few General Circulation Models (GCMs). This study examines the uncertainty introduced to a crop impact assessment when 14 GCMs are used to determine future climate. The General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) was applied over a global domain to simulate the productivity of soybean and spring wheat under baseline climate conditions and under climate conditions consistent with the 2050s under the A1B SRES emissions scenario as simulated by 14 GCMs. Baseline yield simulations were evaluated against global country-level yield statistics to determine the model's ability to capture observed variability in production. The impact of climate change varied between crops, regions, and by GCM. The spread in yield projections due to GCM varied between no change and a reduction of 50%. Without adaptation yield response was linearly related to the magnitude of local temperature change. Therefore, impacts were greatest for countries at northernmost latitudes where warming is predicted to be greatest. However, these countries also exhibited the greatest potential for adaptation to offset yield losses by shifting the crop growing season to a cooler part of the year and/or switching crop variety to take advantage of an extended growing season. The relative magnitude of impacts as simulated by each GCM was not consistent across countries and between crops. It is important, therefore, for crop impact assessments to fully account for GCM uncertainty in estimating future climates and to be explicit about assumptions regarding adaptation.

The child and imperial return: the mystery of Edwin Drood

The Mystery of Edwin Drood has often been read as an Imperial text, just as Dickens's work has repeatedly been considered in relation to its construction of childhood. Despite this, 'the child' has either been avoided in criticism of Dickens's last novel, or has actively been read as absent. In this essay, I return the ‘repressed’ child to a reading of Drood, and through this disrupt appeals to a hard-impacted Imperial structure I understand to be made within criticism of it.

Quantifying volcanic ash dispersal and impact of the Campanian Ignimbrite super-eruption

1] We apply a novel computational approach to assess, for the first time, volcanic ash dispersal during the Campanian Ignimbrite (Italy) super-eruption providing insights into eruption dynamics and the impact of this gigantic event. The method uses a 3D time-dependent computational ash dispersion model, a set of wind fields, and more than 100 thickness measurements of the CI tephra deposit. Results reveal that the CI eruption dispersed 250–300 km3 of ash over ∼3.7 million km2. The injection of such a large quantity of ash (and volatiles) into the atmosphere would have caused a volcanic winter during the Heinrich Event 4, the coldest and driest climatic episode of the Last Glacial period. Fluorine-bearing leachate from the volcanic ash and acid rain would have further affected food sources and severely impacted Late Middle-Early Upper Paleolithic groups in Southern and Eastern Europe

Serving two masters: a reflective narrative of reconciling the tensions faced in designing doctoral research

This paper presents a reflective narrative of the process of designing a PhD project. Using the analogy of the play 'One Man, Two Guvnors' , this paper discusses the tensions a beginning researcher faces in reconciling her own vision for a project with the academic demands of doctoral-level study. Focusing on an ethnographic study of a reading group for visually-impaired people, the paper explores how the researcher's developing understanding of the considerations necessary when working with disabled people impacted on the research design. In particular, it focuses on the conflict faced by doctoral students when working in a paradigm that requires actively involving research participants, thereby relinquishing some control over the project. The aim of the paper is to provide an honest narrative that will resonate with other beginning researchers.

Promoting the use of BaP as a marker for PAH exposure in UK soils

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous environmental pollutants that frequently accumulate in soils. There is therefore a requirement to determine their levels in contaminated environments for the purposes of determining impacts on human health. PAHs are a suite of individual chemicals, and there is an ongoing debate as to the most appropriate method for assessing the risk to humans from them. Two methods predominate: the surrogate marker approach and the toxic equivalency factor. The former assumes that all chemicals in a mixture have an equivalent toxicity. The toxic equivalency approach estimates the potency of individual chemicals relative to the usually most toxic Benzo(a)pyrene. The surrogate marker approach is believed to overestimate risk and the toxic equivalency factor to underestimate risk. When analysing the risks from soils, the surrogate marker approach is preferred due to its simplicity, but there are concerns because of the potential diversity of the PAH profile across the range of impacted soils. Using two independent data sets containing soils from 274 sites across a diverse range of locations, statistical analysis was undertaken to determine the differences in the composition of carcinogenic PAH between site locations, for example, rural versus industrial. Following principal components analysis, distinct population differences were not seen between site locations in spite of large differences in the total PAH burden between individual sites. Using all data, highly significant correlations were seen between BaP and other carcinogenic PAH with the majority of r2 values > 0.8. Correlations with the European Food Standards Agency (EFSA) summed groups, that is, EFSA2, EFSA4 and EFSA8 had even higher correlations (r2 > 0.95). We therefore conclude that BaP is a suitable surrogate marker to represent mixtures of PAH in soil during risk assessments.

Novel management to enhance spider biodiversity in existing grass buffer strips

Grass buffer strips have been widely sown to mitigate against intensive agricultural management practices that have negatively impacted on invertebrate and plant biodiversity in arable farming systems. Typically, such strips are floristically species poor and are dominated by grasses. In the present study, we developed management practices to enhance the floristic and structural diversity of these existing strips for the benefit of spiders, a key provider of natural pest control in crops. Across three UK arable farms, we investigated the benefits of: (i) scarification to create germination niches into which wildflower seeds were sown and (ii) the effect of graminicide applications to suppress grass dominance. Spiders were sampled twice per year (July and September) during 2008 and 2009. The combination of scarification with wildflower seeds, as well as graminicide, resulted in the greatest wildflower cover and lowest grass cover, with a general trend of increased abundance of adult and juvenile spiders. The abundance of Pachygnatha degeeri, Bathyphantes gracilis and juvenile wolf spiders of the genus Pardosa was positively correlated with wildflower cover, probably reflecting increased prey availability. Sward structure was negatively correlated with Erigone atra, Oedothorax fuscus and juvenile Pardosa abundance. Management that utilizes existing commonly adopted agri-environment options, such as grass buffer strips, represents a potentially important conservation tool for increasing the quantity and quality of invertebrate habitats. This can maximize opportunities for the provision of multiple ecosystem services, including pest regulation by predators such as spiders. These management practices have the potential to be incorporated into existing U.K. and European agri-environment schemes.

Changing building user attitude and organisational policy towards sustainable resource use in healthcare

Health care provision is significantly impacted by the ability of the health providers to engineer a viable healthcare space to support care stakeholders needs. In this paper we discuss and propose use of organisational semiotics as a set of methods to link stakeholders to systems, which allows us to capture clinician activity, information transfer, and building use; which in tern allows us to define the value of specific systems in the care environment to specific stakeholders and the dependence between systems in a care space. We suggest use of a semantically enhanced building information model (BIM) to support the linking of clinician activity to the physical resource objects and space; and facilitate the capture of quantifiable data, over time, concerning resource use by key stakeholders. Finally we argue for the inclusion of appropriate stakeholder feedback and persuasive mechanism, to incentivise building user behaviour to support organisational level sustainability policy.

What (science for) adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture? A commentary on “A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050” by J. Ramirez-Villegas, M. Salazar, A. Jarvis, C. E. Navarro-Valcines.

Climate change is putting Colombian agriculture under significant stress and, if no adaptation is made, the latter will be severely impacted during the next decades. Ramirez-Villegas et al. (2012) set out a government-led, top-down, techno-scientific proposal for a way forward by which Colombian agriculture could adapt to climate change. However, this proposal largely overlooks the root causes of vulnerability of Colombian agriculture, and of smallholders in particular. I discuss some of the hidden assumptions underpinning this proposal and of the arguments employed by Ramirez-Villegas et al., based on existing literature on Colombian agriculture and the wider scientific debate on adaptation to climate change. While technical measures may play an important role in the adaptation of Colombian agriculture to climate change, I question whether the actions listed in the proposal alone and specifically for smallholders, truly represent priority issues. I suggest that by i) looking at vulnerability before adaptation, ii) contextualising climate change as one of multiple exposures, and iii) truly putting smallholders at the centre of adaptation, i.e. to learn about and with them, different and perhaps more urgent priorities for action can be identified. Ultimately, I argue that what is at stake is not only a list of adaptation measures but, more importantly, the scientific approach from which priorities for action are identified. In this respect, I propose that transformative rather than technical fix adaptation represents a better approach for Colombian agriculture and smallholders in particular, in the face of climate change.

Still feeling it: the time course of emotional recovery from an attentional perspective

Emotional reactivity and the time taken to recover, particularly from negative, stressful, events, are inextricably linked, and both are crucial for maintaining well-being. It is unclear, however, to what extent emotional reactivity during stimulus onset predicts the time course of recovery after stimulus offset. To address this question, 25 participants viewed arousing (negative and positive) and neutral pictures from the International Affective Picture System (IAPS) followed by task-relevant face targets, which were to be gender categorized. Faces were presented early (400–1500 ms) or late (2400–3500 ms) after picture offset to capture the time course of recovery from emotional stimuli. Measures of reaction time (RT), as well as face-locked N170 and P3 components were taken as indicators of the impact of lingering emotion on attentional facilitation or interference. Electrophysiological effects revealed negative and positive images to facilitate face-target processing on the P3 component, regardless of temporal interval. At the individual level, increased reactivity to: (1) negative pictures, quantified as the IAPS picture-locked Late Positive Potential (LPP), predicted larger attentional interference on the face-locked P3 component to faces presented in the late time window after picture offset. (2) Positive pictures, denoted by the LPP, predicted larger facilitation on the face-locked P3 component to faces presented in the earlier time window after picture offset. These results suggest that subsequent processing is still impacted up to 3500 ms after the offset of negative pictures and 1500 ms after the offset of positive pictures for individuals reacting more strongly to these pictures, respectively. Such findings emphasize the importance of individual differences in reactivity when predicting the temporality of emotional recovery. The current experimental model provides a novel basis for future research aiming to identify profiles of adaptive and maladaptive recovery.