Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Synapsing variable length crossover: An algorithm for crossing and comparing variable length genomes

The Synapsing Variable Length Crossover (SVLC) algorithm provides a biologically inspired method for performing meaningful crossover between variable length genomes. In addition to providing a rationale for variable length crossover it also provides a genotypic similarity metric for variable length genomes enabling standard niche formation techniques to be used with variable length genomes. Unlike other variable length crossover techniques which consider genomes to be rigid inflexible arrays and where some or all of the crossover points are randomly selected, the SVLC algorithm considers genomes to be flexible and chooses non-random crossover points based on the common parental sequence similarity. The SVLC Algorithm recurrently "glues" or synapses homogenous genetic sub-sequences together. This is done in such a way that common parental sequences are automatically preserved in the offspring with only the genetic differences being exchanged or removed, independent of the length of such differences. In a variable length test problem the SVLC algorithm is shown to outperform current variable length crossover techniques. The SVLC algorithm is also shown to work in a more realistic robot neural network controller evolution application.

Genetic least squares for system identification

The recursive least-squares algorithm with a forgetting factor has been extensively applied and studied for the on-line parameter estimation of linear dynamic systems. This paper explores the use of genetic algorithms to improve the performance of the recursive least-squares algorithm in the parameter estimation of time-varying systems. Simulation results show that the hybrid recursive algorithm (GARLS), combining recursive least-squares with genetic algorithms, can achieve better results than the standard recursive least-squares algorithm using only a forgetting factor.