Assessing the benefits of domestic hot fill washing appliances

Washing machine and dishwasher appliance use accounts for approximately 10% of electricity demand in EU households. The majority of this demand is due to the operation of electric heating elements inside appliances. This paper investigates the potential benefits that can be realised by adding a hot fill connection to washing appliances, with respect to carbon emissions, demand side management and renewable energy integration. Initial laboratory testing of new hot and cold fill appliances has resulted in modifications to optimise hot fill intake, and a novel numerical model presents a method of characterising appliance electricity use in different configurations. In order to validate model findings and test the use of new hot fill appliances in situ, a pilot study has recorded appliances’ resource consumption at one-minute resolution in fourteen households. The addition of hot fill reduced the total dishwasher and washing machine electricity consumption by 38% and 67% respectively. Depending on how hot water is supplied to appliances it is estimated that hot fill use results in an annual household carbon saving of up to 147 kgCO2. Further to direct electricity reduction, hot fill appliances can offer a method of time shifting demand away from peak periods without inconveniencing occupants’ lifestyles.

Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface

Methods to explicitly represent uncertainties in weather and climate models have been developed and refined over the past decade, and have reduced biases and improved forecast skill when implemented in the atmospheric component of models. These methods have not yet been applied to the land surface component of models. Since the land surface is strongly coupled to the atmospheric state at certain times and in certain places (such as the European summer of 2003), improvements in the representation of land surface uncertainty may potentially lead to improvements in atmospheric forecasts for such events. Here we analyse seasonal retrospective forecasts for 1981–2012 performed with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ (ECMWF) coupled ensemble forecast model. We consider two methods of incorporating uncertainty into the land surface model (H-TESSEL): stochastic perturbation of tendencies, and static perturbation of key soil parameters. We find that the perturbed parameter approach considerably improves the forecast of extreme air temperature for summer 2003, through better representation of negative soil moisture anomalies and upward sensible heat flux. Averaged across all the reforecasts the perturbed parameter experiment shows relatively little impact on the mean bias, suggesting perturbations of at least this magnitude can be applied to the land surface without any degradation of model climate. There is also little impact on skill averaged across all reforecasts and some evidence of overdispersion for soil moisture. The stochastic tendency experiments show a large overdispersion for the soil temperature fields, indicating that the perturbation here is too strong. There is also some indication that the forecast of the 2003 warm event is improved for the stochastic experiments, however the improvement is not as large as observed for the perturbed parameter experiment.

Application of dried blood spots to determine vitamin D status in a large nutritional study with unsupervised sampling: the Food4Me project

An efficient and robust method to measure vitamin D (25-hydroxy vitamin D3 (25(OH)D3) and 25-hydroxy vitamin D2 in dried blood spots (DBS) has been developed and applied in the pan-European multi-centre, internet-based, personalised nutrition intervention study Food4Me. The method includes calibration with blood containing endogenous 25(OH)D3, spotted as DBS and corrected for haematocrit content. The methodology was validated following international standards. The performance characteristics did not reach those of the current gold standard liquid chromatography-MS/MS in plasma for all parameters, but were found to be very suitable for status-level determination under field conditions. DBS sample quality was very high, and 3778 measurements of 25(OH)D3 were obtained from 1465 participants. The study centre and the season within the study centre were very good predictors of 25(OH)D3 levels (P<0·001 for each case). Seasonal effects were modelled by fitting a sine function with a minimum 25(OH)D3 level on 20 January and a maximum on 21 July. The seasonal amplitude varied from centre to centre. The largest difference between winter and summer levels was found in Germany and the smallest in Poland. The model was cross-validated to determine the consistency of the predictions and the performance of the DBS method. The Pearson's correlation between the measured values and the predicted values was r 0·65, and the sd of their differences was 21·2 nmol/l. This includes the analytical variation and the biological variation within subjects. Overall, DBS obtained by unsupervised sampling of the participants at home was a viable methodology for obtaining vitamin D status information in a large nutritional study.

Sensitivity and variability redux in hot-Jupiter flow simulations

We revisit the issue of sensitivity to initial flow and intrinsic variability in hot-Jupiter atmospheric flow simulations, originally investigated by Cho et al. (2008) and Thrastarson & Cho (2010). The flow in the lower region (~1 to 20 MPa) `dragged' to immobility and uniform temperature on a very short timescale, as in Liu & Showman (2013), leads to effectively a complete cessation of variability as well as sensitivity in three-dimensional (3D) simulations with traditional primitive equations. Such momentum (Rayleigh) and thermal (Newtonian) drags are, however, ad hoc for 3D giant planet simulations. For 3D hot-Jupiter simulations, which typically already employ strong Newtonian drag in the upper region, sensitivity is not quenched if only the Newtonian drag is applied in the lower region, without the strong Rayleigh drag: in general, both sensitivity and variability persist if the two drags are not applied concurrently in the lower region. However, even when the drags are applied concurrently, vertically-propagating planetary waves give rise to significant variability in the ~0.05 to 0.5 MPa region, if the vertical resolution of the lower region is increased (e.g. here with 1000 layers for the entire domain). New observations on the effects of the physical setup and model convergence in ‘deep’ atmosphere simulations are also presented.

The 2014 hot, dry summer in Northeast Asia

Northeast Asia experienced a severe drought in summer 2014. Sea surface temperature forcing may have increased the risk of low precipitation, but model biases preclude reliable attribution to anthropogenic forcing.

Exploring the association of diary product intake with the fatty acids C15:0 and C17:0 measured from dried blood spots in a multi-population cohort: findings from the Food4Me study

Scope: The use of biomarkers in the objective assessment of dietary intake is a high priority in nutrition research. The aim of this study was to examine pentadecanoic acid (C15:0) and heptadecanoic acid (C17:0) as biomarkers of dairy foods intake. Methods and results: The data used in the present study were obtained as part of the Food4me Study. Estimates of C15:0 and C17:0 from dried blood spots and intakes of dairy from an FFQ were obtained from participants (n=1,180) across 7 countries. Regression analyses were used to explore associations of biomarkers with dairy intake levels and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were used to evaluate the fatty acids. Significant positive associations were found between C15:0 and total intakes of high-fat dairy products. C15:0 showed good ability to distinguish between low and high consumers of high-fat dairy products. Conclusion: C15:0 can be used as a biomarker of high-fat dairy intake and of specific high-fat dairy products. Both C15:0 and C17:0 performed poorly for total dairy intake highlighting the need for caution when using these in epidemiological studies.