A model of melt pond evolution on sea ice

A one-dimensional, thermodynamic, and radiative model of a melt pond on sea ice is presented that explicitly treats the melt pond as an extra phase. A two-stream radiation model, which allows albedo to be determined from bulk optical properties, and a parameterization of the summertime evolution of optical properties, is used. Heat transport within the sea ice is described using an equation describing heat transport in a mushy layer of a binary alloy (salt water). The model is tested by comparison of numerical simulations with SHEBA data and previous modeling. The presence of melt ponds on the sea ice surface is demonstrated to have a significant effect on the heat and mass balance. Sensitivity tests indicate that the maximum melt pond depth is highly sensitive to optical parameters and drainage. INDEX TERMS: 4207 Oceanography: General: Arctic and Antarctic oceanography; 4255 Oceanography: General: Numerical modeling; 4299 Oceanography: General: General or miscellaneous; KEYWORDS: sea ice, melt pond, albedo, Arctic Ocean, radiation model, thermodynamic

Analytical and numerical solutions describing the inward solidification of a binary melt

We present a mathematical model describing the inward solidification of a slab, a circular cylinder and a sphere of binary melt kept below its equilibrium freezing temperature. The thermal and physical properties of the melt and solid are assumed to be identical. An asymptotic method, valid in the limit of large Stefan number is used to decompose the moving boundary problem for a pure substance into a hierarchy of fixed-domain diffusion problems. Approximate, analytical solutions are derived for the inward solidification of a slab and a sphere of a binary melt which are compared with numerical solutions of the unapproximated system. The solutions are found to agree within the appropriate asymptotic regime of large Stefan number and small time. Numerical solutions are used to demonstrate the dependence of the solidification process upon the level of impurity and other parameters. We conclude with a discussion of the solutions obtained, their stability and possible extensions and refinements of our study.

Hot and cold IPO markets : the case of the stock exchange of Mauritius

The aim of this study is to assess the characteristics of the hot and cold IPO markets on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM). The results show that the hot issues exhibit, on average, a greater degree of underpricing than the cold issues, although the hot issue phenomenon is not a significant driving force in explaining this short-run underpricing. The results are consistent with the predictions of the changing risk composition hypothesis in suggesting that firms going public during hot markets are on average relatively more risky. The findings also support the time adverse selection hypothesis in that the firms’ quality dispersion is statistically different between hot and cold markets. Finally, the study concludes that firms which go public during hot markets do not underperform those going public in cold markets over the longer term.

September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction

The area of Arctic September sea ice has diminished from about 7 million km2 in the 1990s to less than 5 million km2 in five of the past seven years, with a record minimum of 3.6 million km2 in 2012 (ref. 1). The strength of this decrease is greater than expected by the scientific community, the reasons for this are not fully understood, and its simulation is an on-going challenge for existing climate models2, 3. With growing Arctic marine activity there is an urgent demand for forecasting Arctic summer sea ice4. Previous attempts at seasonal forecasts of ice extent were of limited skill5, 6, 7, 8, 9. However, here we show that the Arctic sea-ice minimum can be accurately forecasted from melt-pond area in spring. We find a strong correlation between the spring pond fraction and September sea-ice extent. This is explained by a positive feedback mechanism: more ponds reduce the albedo; a lower albedo causes more melting; more melting increases pond fraction. Our results help explain the acceleration of Arctic sea-ice decrease during the past decade. The inclusion of our new melt-pond model10 promises to improve the skill of future forecast and climate models in Arctic regions and beyond.

The 2013 hot, dry summer in Western Europe

The European summer of 2013 was marked by hot and dry conditions in Western Europe associated with a northward shifted Atlantic storm track and a positive phase of the SNAO. Model results suggest that, relative to a 1964–93 reference period, changes in SST/SIE explain 63% (±26%) of the area-averaged warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37% (±29%) explained by the direct impact of changes in anthropogenic radiative forcings from GHG and aerosols. The results further suggest that the anomalous atmospheric circulation, and associated low rainfall, were also influenced both by changes in SST/SIE and by the direct impact of changes in radiative forcings; however, the magnitude of the forced signals in these variables is much less, relative to internal variability, than for surface air temperature. Further evidence suggests that changes in North Atlantic SST were likely an important factor in explaining the striking contrast between the European summers of 2013 and that of 2012. A major area for further work is to understand more completely the mechanisms that explain these influences.

Ring-opening polymerization in molten PEEK: transient reduction of melt-viscosity by macrocyclic aromatic thioetherketones

Blends of PEEK with macrocyclic thioether-ketones show initial melt-viscosities reduced by more than an order of magnitude relative to the polymer itself, enabling more facile processing and fabrication. On raising the temperature of the melt, however, the macrocycle undergoes spontaneous, entropically-driven ring-opening polymerization (ED-ROP), so that the properties of the final polymer should not, in principle, be compromised by the presence of low-MW macrocyclic material.

Intercomparison of general circulation models for hot extrasolar planets

We compare five general circulation models (GCMs) which have been recently used to study hot extrasolar planet atmospheres (BOB, CAM, IGCM, MITgcm, and PEQMOD), under three test cases useful for assessing model convergence and accuracy. Such a broad, detailed intercomparison has not been performed thus far for extrasolar planets study. The models considered all solve the traditional primitive equations, but employ di↵erent numerical algorithms or grids (e.g., pseudospectral and finite volume, with the latter separately in longitude-latitude and ‘cubed-sphere’ grids). The test cases are chosen to cleanly address specific aspects of the behaviors typically reported in hot extrasolar planet simulations: 1) steady-state, 2) nonlinearly evolving baroclinic wave, and 3) response to fast timescale thermal relaxation. When initialized with a steady jet, all models maintain the steadiness, as they should—except MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid. A very good agreement is obtained for a baroclinic wave evolving from an initial instability in pseudospectral models (only). However, exact numerical convergence is still not achieved across the pseudospectral models: amplitudes and phases are observably di↵erent. When subject to a typical ‘hot-Jupiter’-like forcing, all five models show quantitatively di↵erent behavior—although qualitatively similar, time-variable, quadrupole-dominated flows are produced. Hence, as have been advocated in several past studies, specific quantitative predictions (such as the location of large vortices and hot regions) by GCMs should be viewed with caution. Overall, in the tests considered here, pseudospectral models in pressure coordinate (PEBOB and PEQMOD) perform the best and MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid performs the worst.

Baroclinic instability on hot extrasolar planets

We investigate baroclinic instability in flow conditions relevant to hot extrasolar planets. The instability is important for transporting and mixing heat, as well as for influencing large-scale variability on the planets. Both linear normal mode analysis and non-linear initial value cal- culations are carried out – focusing on the freely-evolving, adiabatic situation. Using a high- resolution general circulation model (GCM) which solves the traditional primitive equations, we show that large-scale jets similar to those observed in current GCM simulations of hot ex- trasolar giant planets are likely to be baroclinically unstable on a timescale of few to few tens of planetary rotations, generating cyclones and anticyclones that drive weather systems. The growth rate and scale of the most unstable mode obtained in the linear analysis are in qual- itative, good agreement with the full non-linear calculations. In general, unstable jets evolve differently depending on their signs (eastward or westward), due to the change in sign of the jet curvature. For jets located at or near the equator, instability is strong at the flanks – but not at the core. Crucially, the instability is either poorly or not at all captured in simulations with low resolution and/or high artificial viscosity. Hence, the instability has not been observed or emphasized in past circulation studies of hot extrasolar planets.

Methane in the atmosphere of the transiting hot Neptune GJ436b?

We present an analysis of seven primary transit observations of the hot Neptune GJ436b at 3.6, 4.5, and 8 μm obtained with the Infrared Array Camera on the Spitzer Space Telescope. After correcting for systematic effects, we fitted the light curves using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Combining these new data with the EPOXI, Hubble Space Telescope, and ground-based V, I, H, and Ks published observations, the range 0.5-10 μm can be covered. Due to the low level of activity of GJ436, the effect of starspots on the combination of transits at different epochs is negligible at the accuracy of the data set. Representative climate models were calculated by using a three-dimensional, pseudospectral general circulation model with idealized thermal forcing. Simulated transit spectra of GJ436b were generated using line-by-line radiative transfer models including the opacities of the molecular species expected to be present in such a planetary atmosphere. A new, ab-initio-calculated, line list for hot ammonia has been used for the first time. The photometric data observed at multiple wavelengths can be interpreted with methane being the dominant absorption after molecular hydrogen, possibly with minor contributions from ammonia, water, and other molecules. No clear evidence of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide is found from transit photometry. We discuss this result in the light of a recent paper where photochemical disequilibrium is hypothesized to interpret secondary transit photometric data. We show that the emission photometric data are not incompatible with the presence of abundant methane, but further spectroscopic data are desirable to confirm this scenario.

Cortical hot spots and labyrinths: why cortical neuromodulation for episodic migraine with aura should be personalized

Stimulation protocols for medical devices should be rationally designed. For episodic migraine with aura we outline model-based design strategies toward preventive and acute therapies using stereotactic cortical neuromodulation. To this end, we regard a localized spreading depression (SD) wave segment as a central element in migraine pathophysiology. To describe nucleation and propagation features of the SD wave segment, we define the new concepts of cortical hot spots and labyrinths, respectively. In particular, we firstly focus exclusively on curvature-induced dynamical properties by studying a generic reaction-diffusion model of SD on the folded cortical surface. This surface is described with increasing level of details, including finally personalized simulations using patient's magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner readings. At this stage, the only relevant factor that can modulate nucleation and propagation paths is the Gaussian curvature, which has the advantage of being rather readily accessible by MRI. We conclude with discussing further anatomical factors, such as areal, laminar, and cellular heterogeneity, that in addition to and in relation to Gaussian curvature determine the generalized concept of cortical hot spots and labyrinths as target structures for neuromodulation. Our numerical simulations suggest that these target structures are like fingerprints, they are individual features of each migraine sufferer. The goal in the future will be to provide individualized neural tissue simulations. These simulations should predict the clinical data and therefore can also serve as a test bed for exploring stereotactic cortical neuromodulation.

Assessing the benefits of domestic hot fill washing appliances

Washing machine and dishwasher appliance use accounts for approximately 10% of electricity demand in EU households. The majority of this demand is due to the operation of electric heating elements inside appliances. This paper investigates the potential benefits that can be realised by adding a hot fill connection to washing appliances, with respect to carbon emissions, demand side management and renewable energy integration. Initial laboratory testing of new hot and cold fill appliances has resulted in modifications to optimise hot fill intake, and a novel numerical model presents a method of characterising appliance electricity use in different configurations. In order to validate model findings and test the use of new hot fill appliances in situ, a pilot study has recorded appliances’ resource consumption at one-minute resolution in fourteen households. The addition of hot fill reduced the total dishwasher and washing machine electricity consumption by 38% and 67% respectively. Depending on how hot water is supplied to appliances it is estimated that hot fill use results in an annual household carbon saving of up to 147 kgCO2. Further to direct electricity reduction, hot fill appliances can offer a method of time shifting demand away from peak periods without inconveniencing occupants’ lifestyles.

High-resolution melt and morphological analyses of mealybugs (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) from cacao: tools for the control of Cacao Swollen Shoot Virus spread

BACKGROUND: Mealybugs (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Pseudococcidae) are key vectors of badnaviruses, including Cacao Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV) the most damaging virus affecting cacao (Theobroma cacao L.). The effectiveness of mealybugs as virus vectors is species dependent and it is therefore vital that CSSV resistance breeding programmes in cacao incorporate accurate mealybug identification. In this work the efficacy of a CO1-based DNA barcoding approach to species identification was evaluated by screening a range of mealybugs collected from cacao in seven countries. RESULTS: Morphologically similar adult females were characterised by scanning electron microscopy and then, following DNA extraction, were screened with CO1 barcoding markers. A high degree of CO1 sequence homology was observed for all 11 individual haplotypes including those accessions from distinct geographical regions. This has allowed for the design of a High Resolution Melt (HRM) assay capable of rapid identification of the commonly encountered mealybug pests of cacao. CONCLUSIONS: HRM Analysis (HRMA) readily differentiated between mealybug pests of cacao that can not necessarily be identified by conventional morphological analysis. This new approach, therefore, has potential to facilitate breeding for resistance to CSSV and other mealybug transmitted diseases.

Norepinephrine ignites local hot spots of neuronal excitation: how arousal amplifies selectivity in perception and memory

Arousal sometimes enhances and sometimes impairs perception and memory. In our Glutamate Amplifies Noradrenergic Effects (GANE) model, glutamate at active synapses interacts with norepinephrine released by the locus coeruleus to create local ‘hot spots’ of activity that enable the selective effects of arousal. This hot spot mechanism allows local cortical regions to self-regulate norepinephrine release based on current activation levels. In turn, hot spots bias global energetic delivery and functional network connectivity to enhance processing of high priority representations and impair processing of lower priority representations.

Microphase separation induced in the melt of Pluronic copolymers by blending with a hydrogen bonding urea–urethane end-capped supramolecular polymer

Blending with a hydrogen-bonding supramolecular polymer is shown to be a successful novel strategy to induce microphase-separation in the melt of a Pluronic polyether block copolymer. The supramolecular polymer is a polybutadiene derivative with urea–urethane end caps. Microphase separation is analysed using small-angle X-ray scattering and its influence on the macroscopic rheological properties is analysed. FTIR spectroscopy provides a detailed picture of the inter-molecular interactions between the polymer chains that induces conformational changes leading to microphase separation.