A Possible Influence of Equatorial Winds on the September 2002 Southern Hemisphere Sudden Warming Event

The stratospheric sudden warming in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in September 2002 was unexpected for two reasons. First, planetary wave activity in the Southern Hemisphere is very weak, and midwinter warmings have never been observed, at least not since observations of the upper stratosphere became regularly available. Second, the warming occurred in a west phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the lower stratosphere. This is unexpected because warmings are usually considered to be more likely in the east phase of the QBO, when a zero wind line is present in the winter subtropics and hence confines planetary wave propagation to higher latitudes closer to the polar vortex. At first, this evidence suggests that the sudden warming must therefore be simply a result of anomalously strong planetary wave forcing from the troposphere. However, recent model studies have suggested that the midwinter polar vortex may also be sensitive to the equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere, the region dominated by the semiannual oscillation. In this paper, the time series of equatorial zonal winds from two different data sources, the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA) and the Met Office assimilated dataset, are reviewed. Both suggest that the equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere above 10 hPa were anomalously easterly in 2002. Idealized model experiments are described in which the modeled equatorial winds were relaxed toward these observations for various years to examine whether the anomalous easterlies in 2002 could influence the timing of a warming event. It is found that the 2002 equatorial winds speed up the evolution of a warming event in the model. Therefore, this study suggests that the anomalous easterlies in the 1–10-hPa region may have been a contributory factor in the development of the observed SH warming. However, it is concluded that it is unlikely that the anomalous equatorial winds alone can explain the 2002 warming event.

The Splitting of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in the Southern Hemisphere, September 2002: Dynamical Evolution

The polar vortex of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) split dramatically during September 2002. The large-scale dynamical effects were manifest throughout the stratosphere and upper troposphere, corresponding to two distinct cyclonic centers in the upper troposphere–stratosphere system. High-resolution (T511) ECMWF analyses, supplemented by analyses from the Met Office, are used to present a detailed dynamical analysis of the event. First, the anomalous evolution of the SH polar vortex is placed in the context of the evolution that is usually witnessed during spring. Then high-resolution fields of potential vorticity (PV) from ECMWF are used to reveal several dynamical features of the split. Vortex fragments are rapidly sheared out into sheets of high (modulus) PV, which subsequently roll up into distinct synoptic-scale vortices. It is proposed that the stratospheric circulation becomes hydrodynamically unstable through a significant depth of the troposphere–stratosphere system as the polar vortex elongates.

The impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere during the southern hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming, September 2002

Recent research has established that a small but statistically significant link exists between the stratosphere and the troposphere in the northern hemisphere extratropics. In this paper it is shown that a similar link exists between the stratosphere and troposphere during the unprecedented September 2002 sudden warming in the southern hemisphere. Two ensemble forecasts of the stratospheric sudden warming are run which have different stratospheric initial conditions and identical tropospheric initial conditions. Stratospheric initial conditions have an impact on the tropospheric flow at the peak of the major warming (5 days into the run) and on longer time-scales (18 days into the run). The character of this influence is a localized, equatorward shift of the tropospheric storm track. The averaged impact of the change in the position of the storm-track maps strongly onto the Southern Annular Mode structure, but does not have an annular character.

Observed trends and teleconnections of the Siberian high: A recently declining center of action

This study investigates variability in the intensity of the wintertime Siberian high (SH) by defining a robust SH index (SHI) and correlating it with selected meteorological fields and teleconnection indices. A dramatic trend of -2.5 hPa decade(-1) has been found in the SHI between 1978 and 2001 with unprecedented (since 1871) low values of the SHI. The weakening of the SH has been confirmed by analyzing different historical gridded analyses and individual station observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and excluding possible effects from the conversion of surface pressure to SLP. SHI correlation maps with various meteorological fields show that SH impacts on circulation and temperature patterns extend far outside the SH source area extending from the Arctic to the tropical Pacific. Advection of warm air from eastern Europe has been identified as the main mechanism causing milder than normal conditions over the Kara and Laptev Seas in association with a strong SH. Despite the strong impacts of the variability in the SH on climatic variability across the Northern Hemisphere, correlations between the SHI and the main teleconnection indices of the Northern Hemisphere are weak. Regression analysis has shown that teleconnection indices are not able to reproduce the interannual variability and trends in the SH. The inclusion of regional surface temperature in the regression model provides closer agreement between the original and reconstructed SHI.

A continuum of sudden stratospheric warmings

The k-means cluster technique is used to examine 43 yr of daily winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar stratospheric data from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The results show that the NH winter stratosphere exists in two natural well-separated states. In total, 10% of the analyzed days exhibit a warm disturbed state that is typical of sudden stratospheric warming events. The remaining 90% of the days are in a state typical of a colder undisturbed vortex. These states are determined objectively, with no preconceived notion of the groups. The two stratospheric states are described and compared with alternative indicators of the polar winter flow, such as the northern annular mode. It is shown that the zonally averaged zonal winds in the polar upper stratosphere at 7 hPa can best distinguish between the two states, using a threshold value of 4 m s−1, which is remarkably close to the standard WMO criterion for major warming events. The analysis also determines that there are no further divisions within the warm state, indicating that there is no well-designated threshold between major and minor warmings, nor between split and displaced vortex events. These different manifestations are simply members of a continuum of warming events.

The zonal asymmetry of the Southern Hemisphere storm-track

Atmospheric general circulation model experiments have been performed to investigate how the significant zonal asymmetry in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter storm track is forced by sea surface temperature (SST) and orography. An experiment with zonally symmetric tropical SSTs expands the SH upper-tropospheric storm track poleward and eastward and destroys its spiral structure. Diagnosis suggests that these aspects of the observed storm track result from Rossby wave propagation from a wave source in the Indian Ocean region associated with the monsoon there. The lower-tropospheric storm track is not sensitive to this forcing. However, an experiment with zonally symmetric midlatitude SSTs exhibits a marked reduction in the magnitude of the maximum intensity of the lower-tropospheric storm track associated with reduced SST gradients in the western Indian Ocean. Experiments without the elevation of the South African Plateau or the Andes show reductions in the intensity of the major storm track downstream of them due to reduced cyclogenesis associated with the topography. These results suggest that the zonal asymmetry of the SH winter storm track is mainly established by stationary waves excited by zonal asymmetry in tropical SST in the upper troposphere and by local SST gradients in the lower troposphere, and that it is modified through cyclogenesis associated with the topography of South Africa and South America.

Dynamical evolution of the 2003 southern hemisphere stratospheric winter using Envisat trace-gas observations

Data from the MIPAS instrument on Envisat, supplemented by meteorological analyses from ECMWF and the Met Office, are used to study the meteorological and trace-gas evolution of the stratosphere in the southern hemisphere during winter and spring 2003. A pole-centred approach is used to interpret the data in the physically meaningful context of the evolving stratospheric polar vortex. The following salient dynamical and transport features are documented and analysed: the merger of anticyclones in the stratosphere; the development of an intense, quasi-stationary anticyclone in spring; the associated top-down breakdown of the polar vortex; the systematic descent of air into the polar vortex; and the formation of a three-dimensional structure of a tracer filament on a planetary scale. The paper confirms and extends existing paradigms of the southern hemisphere vortex evolution. The quality of the MIPAS observations is seen to be generally good. though the water vapour retrievals are unrealistic above 10 hPa in the high-latitude winter.

Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation

A suite of climate change indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed. By setting an exact formula for each index and using specially designed software, analyses done in different countries have been combined seamlessly. This has enabled the presentation of the most up-to-date and comprehensive global picture of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices using results from a number of workshops held in data-sparse regions and high-quality station data supplied by numerous scientists world wide. Seasonal and annual indices for the period 1951-2003 were gridded. Trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. Over 70% of the global land area sampled showed a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices. This implies a positive shift in the distribution of daily minimum temperature throughout the globe. Daily maximum temperature indices showed similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation changes showed a widespread and significant increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared with temperature change. Probability distributions of indices derived from approximately 200 temperature and 600 precipitation stations, with near-complete data for 1901-2003 and covering a very large region of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (and parts of Australia for precipitation) were analyzed for the periods 1901-1950, 1951-1978 and 1979-2003. Results indicate a significant warming throughout the 20th century. Differences in temperature indices distributions are particularly pronounced between the most recent two periods and for those indices related to minimum temperature. An analysis of those indices for which seasonal time series are available shows that these changes occur for all seasons although they are generally least pronounced for September to November. Precipitation indices show a tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the 20th century.

Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?

Composites of wind speeds, equivalent potential temperature, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity, and relative humidity have been produced for the 100 most intense extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere winter for the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the high resolution global environment model (HiGEM). Features of conceptual models of cyclone structure—the warm conveyor belt, cold conveyor belt, and dry intrusion—have been identified in the composites from ERA-40 and compared to HiGEM. Such features can be identified in the composite fields despite the smoothing that occurs in the compositing process. The surface features and the three-dimensional structure of the cyclones in HiGEM compare very well with those from ERA-40. The warm conveyor belt is identified in the temperature and wind fields as a mass of warm air undergoing moist isentropic uplift and is very similar in ERA-40 and HiGEM. The rate of ascent is lower in HiGEM, associated with a shallower slope of the moist isentropes in the warm sector. There are also differences in the relative humidity fields in the warm conveyor belt. In ERA-40, the high values of relative humidity are strongly associated with the moist isentropic uplift, whereas in HiGEM these are not so strongly associated. The cold conveyor belt is identified as rearward flowing air that undercuts the warm conveyor belt and produces a low-level jet, and is very similar in HiGEM and ERA-40. The dry intrusion is identified in the 500-hPa vertical velocity and relative humidity. The structure of the dry intrusion compares well between HiGEM and ERA-40 but the descent is weaker in HiGEM because of weaker along-isentrope flow behind the composite cyclone. HiGEM’s ability to represent the key features of extratropical cyclone structure can give confidence in future predictions from this model.

Performance of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 global ocean-atmosphere coupled model

The climatology of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 coupled general circulation model (GCM) is presented. The atmosphere GCM has a T21 spectral truncation and the ocean GCM has a 2°×1.5° average resolution. A 50-year climatic simulation is performed using the OASIS coupler, without flux correction techniques. The mean state and seasonal cycle for the last 10 years of the experiment are described and compared to the corresponding uncoupled experiments and to climatology when available. The model reasonably simulates most of the basic features of the observed climate. Energy budgets and transports in the coupled system, of importance for climate studies, are assessed and prove to be within available estimates. After an adjustment phase of a few years, the model stabilizes around a mean state where the tropics are warm and resemble a permanent ENSO, the Southern Ocean warms and almost no sea-ice is left in the Southern Hemisphere. The atmospheric circulation becomes more zonal and symmetric with respect to the equator. Once those systematic errors are established, the model shows little secular drift, the small remaining trends being mainly associated to horizontal physics in the ocean GCM. The stability of the model is shown to be related to qualities already present in the uncoupled GCMs used, namely a balanced radiation budget at the top-of-the-atmosphere and a tight ocean thermocline.

Northern hemisphere snow: measurement, modelling and predictability

Northern hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) distribution from remote sensing (SSM/I), the ERA40 reanalysis product and the HadCM3 general circulation model are compared. Large differences are seen in the February climatologies, particularly over Siberia. The SSM/I retrieval algorithm may be overestimating SWE in this region, while comparison with independent runoff estimates suggest that HadCM3 is underestimating SWE. Treatment of snow grain size and vegetation parameterizations are concerns with the remotely sensed data. For this reason, ERA40 is used as `truth' for the following experiments. Despite the climatology differences, HadCM3 is able to reproduce the distribution of ERA40 SWE anomalies when assimilating ERA40 anomaly fields of temperature, sea level pressure, atmospheric winds and ocean temperature and salinity. However when forecasts are released from these assimilated initial states, the SWE anomaly distribution diverges rapidly from that of ERA40. No predictability is seen from one season to another. Strong links between European SWE distribution and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are seen, but forecasts of this index by the assimilation scheme are poor. Longer term relationships between SWE and the NAO, and SWE and the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are also investigated in a multi-century run of HadCM3. SWE is impacted by ENSO in the Himalayas and North America, while the NAO affects SWE in North America and Europe. While significant connections with the NAO index were only present in DJF (and to an extent SON), the link between ENSO and February SWE distribution was seen to exist from the previous JJA ENSO index onwards. This represents a long lead time for SWE prediction for hydrological applications such as flood and wildfire forecasting. Further work is required to develop reliable large scale observation-based SWE datasets with which to test these model-derived connections.

TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems

The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.