Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments

Future climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by introducing a nested family of three simple analysis of variance frameworks. Statistical frameworks are essential in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the mean climate change response. The most general framework yields the “one model, one vote” weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model dependent. In such situations, the weighted multimodel mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases. Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multimodel ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of nonzero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response. The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin.

Conditional mean functions of non-linear models of US output

We compare a number of models of post War US output growth in terms of the degree and pattern of non-linearity they impart to the conditional mean, where we condition on either the previous period's growth rate, or the previous two periods' growth rates. The conditional means are estimated non-parametrically using a nearest-neighbour technique on data simulated from the models. In this way, we condense the complex, dynamic, responses that may be present in to graphical displays of the implied conditional mean.

Supporting visual assessment of food and nutrient intake in a clinical care setting

Monitoring nutritional intake is an important aspect of the care of older people, particularly for those at risk of malnutrition. Current practice for monitoring food intake relies on hand written food charts that have several inadequacies. We describe the design and validation of a tool for computer-assisted visual assessment of patient food and nutrient intake. To estimate food consumption, the application compares the pixels the user rubbed out against predefined graphical masks. Weight of food consumed is calculated as a percentage of pixels rubbed out against pixels in the mask. Results suggest that the application may be a useful tool for the conservative assessment of nutritional intake in hospitals.

Do location specific forecasts pose a new challenge for communicating uncertainty?

In the last decade, the growth of local, site-specific weather forecasts delivered by mobile phone or website represents arguably the fastest change in forecast consumption since the beginning of Television weather forecasts 60 years ago. In this study, a street-interception survey of 274 members of the public a clear first preference for narrow weather forecasts above traditional broad weather forecasts is shown for the first time, with a clear bias towards this preference for users under 40. The impact of this change on the understanding of forecast probability and intensity information is explored. While the correct interpretation of the statement ‘There is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow’ is still low in the cohort, in common with previous studies, a clear impact of age and educational attainment on understanding is shown, with those under 40 and educated to degree level or above more likely to correctly interpret it. The interpretation of rainfall intensity descriptors (‘Light’, ‘Moderate’, ‘Heavy’) by the cohort is shown to be significantly different to official and expert assessment of the same descriptors and to have large variance amongst the cohort. However, despite these key uncertainties, members of the cohort generally seem to make appropriate decisions about rainfall forecasts. There is some evidence that the decisions made are different depending on the communication format used, and the cohort expressed a clear preference for tabular over graphical weather forecast presentation.

TESSA - Toolkit for experimentation with multimodal sensory substitution and augmentation

TESSA is a toolkit for experimenting with sensory augmentation. It includes hardware and software to facilitate rapid prototyping of interfaces that can enhance one sense using information gathered from another sense. The toolkit contains a range of sensors (e.g. ultrasonics, temperature sensors) and actuators (e.g. tactors or stereo sound), designed modularly so that inputs and outputs can be easily swapped in and out and customized using TESSA’s graphical user interface (GUI), with “real time” feedback. The system runs on a Raspberry Pi with a built-in touchscreen, providing a compact and portable form that is amenable for field trials. At CHI Interactivity, the audience will have the opportunity to experience sensory augmentation effects using this system, and design their own sensory augmentation interfaces.

Virtualization for cost-effective teaching of assembly language programming

A virtual system that emulates an ARM-based processor machine has been created to replace a traditional hardware-based system for teaching assembly language. The proposed virtual system integrates, in a single environment, all the development tools necessary to deliver introductory or advanced courses on modern assembly language programming. The virtual system runs a Linux operating system in either a graphical or console mode on a Windows or Linux host machine. No software licenses or extra hardware are required to use the virtual system, thus students are free to carry their own ARM emulator with them on a USB memory stick. Institutions adopting this, or a similar virtual system, can also benefit by reducing capital investment in hardware-based development kits and enable distance learning courses.

EMD performance comparison: single vs double floating points

Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is a data-driven method used to decompose data into oscillatory components. This paper examines to what extent the defined algorithm for EMD might be susceptible to data format. Two key issues with EMD are its stability and computational speed. This paper shows that for a given signal there is no significant difference between results obtained with single (binary32) and double (binary64) floating points precision. This implies that there is no benefit in increasing floating point precision when performing EMD on devices optimised for single floating point format, such as graphical processing units (GPUs).

The iso-Score Curve Graph. A new tool for competitive bidding

The present work describes a new tool that helps bidders improve their competitive bidding strategies. This new tool consists of an easy-to-use graphical tool that allows the use of more complex decision analysis tools in the field of Competitive Bidding. The graphic tool described here tries to move away from previous bidding models which attempt to describe the result of an auction or a tender process by means of studying each possible bidder with probability density functions. As an illustration, the tool is applied to three practical cases. Theoretical and practical conclusions on the great potential breadth of application of the tool are also presented.