How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes?

Processes in the climate system that can either amplify or dampen the climate response to an external perturbation are referred to as climate feedbacks. Climate sensitivity estimates depend critically on radiative feedbacks associated with water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, snow, and sea ice, and global estimates of these feedbacks differ among general circulation models. By reviewing recent observational, numerical, and theoretical studies, this paper shows that there has been progress since the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in (i) the understanding of the physical mechanisms involved in these feedbacks, (ii) the interpretation of intermodel differences in global estimates of these feedbacks, and (iii) the development of methodologies of evaluation of these feedbacks (or of some components) using observations. This suggests that continuing developments in climate feedback research will progressively help make it possible to constrain the GCMs’ range of climate feedbacks and climate sensitivity through an ensemble of diagnostics based on physical understanding and observations.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in Jordan between 2000 and 2030 made using the GEFSOC modelling system

Estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes under different land use systems can help determine vulnerability to land degradation. Such information is important for countries in and areas with high susceptibility to desertification. SOC stocks, and predicted changes between 2000 and 2030, were determined at the national scale for Jordan using The Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System. For the purpose of this study, Jordan was divided into three natural regions (The Jordan Valley, the Uplands and the Badia) and three developmental regions (North, Middle and South). Based on this division, Jordan was divided into five zones (based on the dominant land use): the Jordan Valley, the North Uplands, the Middle Uplands, the South Uplands and the Badia. This information was merged using GIS, along with a map of rainfall isohyets, to produce a map with 498 polygons. Each of these was given a unique ID, a land management unit identifier and was characterized in terms of its dominant soil type. Historical land use data, current land use and future land use change scenarios were also assembled, forming major inputs of the modelling system. The GEFSOC Modelling System was then run to produce C stocks in Jordan for the years 1990, 2000 and 2030. The results were compared with conventional methods of estimating carbon stocks, such as the mapping based SOTER method. The results of these comparisons showed that the model runs are acceptable, taking into consideration the limited availability of long-term experimental soil data that can be used to validate them. The main findings of this research show that between 2000 and 2030, SOC may increase in heavily used areas under irrigation and will likely decrease in grazed rangelands that cover most of Jordan giving an overall decrease in total SOC over time if the land is indeed used under the estimated forms of land use. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelled soil organic carbon stocks and changes in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India from 1980 to 2030

The Global Environment Facility co-financed Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Project developed a comprehensive modelling system for predicting soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes over time. This research is an effort to predict SOC stocks and changes for the Indian, Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), an area with a predominantly rice (Oryza sativa) - wheat (Triticum aestivum) cropping system, using the GEFSOC Modelling System and to compare output with stocks generated using mapping approaches based on soil survey data. The GEFSOC Modelling System predicts an estimated SOC stock for the IGP, India of 1.27, 1.32 and 1.27 Pg for 1990, 2000 and 2030, respectively, in the top 20 cm of soil. The SOC stock using a mapping approach based on soil survey data was 0.66 and 0.88 Pg for 1980 and 2000, respectively. The SOC stock estimated using the GEFSOC Modelling System is higher than the stock estimated using the mapping approach. This is due to the fact that while the GEFSOC System accounts for variation in crop input data (crop management), the soil mapping approach only considers regional variation in soil texture and wetness. The trend of overall change in the modelled SOC stock estimates shows that the IGP, India may have reached an equilibrium following 30-40 years of the Green Revolution. This can be seen in the SOC stock change rates. Various different estimation methods show SOC stocks of 0.57-1.44 Pg C for the study area. The trend of overall change in C stock assessed from the soil survey data indicates that the soils of the IGP, India may store a projected 1.1 Pg of C in 2030. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in the Brazilian Amazon between 2000 and 2030

Currently we have little understanding of the impacts of land use change on soil C stocks in the Brazilian Amazon. Such information is needed to determine impacts'6n the global C cycle and the sustainability of agricultural systems that are replacing native forest. The aim of this study was to predict soil carbon stocks and changes in the Brazilian Amazon during the period between 2000 and 2030, using the GEFSOC soil carbon (C) modelling system. In order to do so, we devised current and future land use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, taking into account: (i) deforestation, rates from the past three decades, (ii) census data on land use from 1940 to 2000, including the expansion and intensification of agriculture in the region, (iii) available information on management practices, primarily related to well managed pasture versus degraded pasture and conventional systems versus no-tillage systems for soybean (Glycine max) and (iv) FAO predictions on agricultural land use and land use changes for the years 2015 and 2030. The land use scenarios were integrated with spatially explicit soils data (SOTER database), climate, potential natural vegetation and land management units using the recently developed GEFSOC soil C modelling system. Results are presented in map, table and graph form for the entire Brazilian Amazon for the current situation (1990 and 2000) and the future (2015 and 2030). Results include soil organic C (SOC) stocks and SOC stock change rates estimated by three methods: (i) the Century ecosystem model, (ii) the Rothamsted C model and (iii) the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scale. In addition, we show estimated values of above and belowground biomass for native vegetation, pasture and soybean. The results on regional SOC stocks compare reasonably well with those based on mapping approaches. The GEFSOC system provided a means of efficiently handling complex interactions among biotic-edapho-climatic conditions (> 363,000 combinations) in a very large area (similar to 500 Mha) such as the Brazilian Amazon. All of the methods used showed a decline in SOC stock for the period studied; Century and RothC simulated values for 2030 being about 7% lower than those in 1990. Values from Century and RothC (30,430 and 25,000 Tg for the 0-20 cm layer for the Brazilian Amazon region were higher than those obtained from the IPCC system (23,400 Tg in the 0-30 cm layer). Finally; our results can help understand the major biogeochemical cycles that influence soil fertility and help devise management strategies that enhance the sustainability of these areas and thus slow further deforestation. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in Kenya between 1990 and 2030

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Non-Annex 1 countries such as Kenya are obliged to report green house gas (GHG) emissions from all sources where possible, including those from soils as a result of changes in land use or land management. At present, the convention encourages countries to estimate emissions using the most advanced methods possible, given the country circumstances and resources. Estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes were made for Kenya using the Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System. The tool conducts analysis using three methods: (1) the Century general ecosystem model; (2) the RothC soil C decomposition model; and (3) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scales. The required datasets included: land use history, monthly mean precipitation, monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures for all the agro-climatic zones of Kenya and historical vegetation cover. Soil C stocks of 1.4-2.0 Pg (0-20 cm), compared well with a Soil and Terrain (SOTER) based approach that estimated similar to .8-2.0 Pg (0-30 cm). In 1990 48% of the country had SOC stocks of < 18 t C ha(-1) and 20% of the country had SOC stocks of 18-30 t C ha(-1), whereas in 2000 56% of the country had SOC stocks of < 18 t C ha(-1) and 31% of the country had SOC stocks of 18-30 t C ha(-1). Conversion of natural vegetation to annual crops led to the greatest soil C losses. Simulations suggest that soil C losses remain substantial throughout the modelling period of 1990-2030. All three methods involved in the GEFSOC System estimated that there would be a net loss of soil C between 2000 and 2030 in Kenya. The decline was more marked with RothC than with Century or the IPCC method. In non-hydric soils the SOC change rates were more pronounced in high sandy soils compared to high clay soils in most land use systems. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phosphorus dynamics and export in streams draining micro-catchments: Development of empirical models

Annual total phosphorus (TP) export data from 108 European micro-catchments were analyzed against descriptive catchment data on climate (runoff), soil types, catchment size, and land use. The best possible empirical model developed included runoff, proportion of agricultural land and catchment size as explanatory variables but with a low explanation of the variance in the dataset (R-2 = 0.37). Improved country specific empirical models could be developed in some cases. The best example was from Norway where an analysis of TP-export data from 12 predominantly agricultural micro-catchments revealed a relationship explaining 96% of the variance in TP-export. The explanatory variables were in this case soil-P status (P-AL), proportion of organic soil, and the export of suspended sediment. Another example is from Denmark where an empirical model was established for the basic annual average TP-export from 24 catchments with percentage sandy soils, percentage organic soils, runoff, and application of phosphorus in fertilizer and animal manure as explanatory variables (R-2 = 0.97).

Interactions between mass balance, atmospheric circulation, and recent climate change on the Djankuat Glacier, Caucasus Mountains, Russia

This paper reports recent changes in the mass balance record from the Djankuat Glacier, central greater Caucasus, Russia, and investigates possible relationships between the components of mass balance, local climate, and distant atmospheric forcing. The results clearly show that a strong warming signal has emerged in the central greater Caucasus, particularly since the 1993/1994 mass balance year, and this has led to a significant increase in the summer ablation of Djankuat. At the same time, there has been no compensating consistent increase in winter precipitation and accumulation leading to the strong net loss of mass and increase in glacier runoff. Interannual variability in ablation and accumulation is partly associated with certain major patterns of Northern Hemisphere climatic variability. The positive phase of the North Pacific (NP) teleconnection pattern forces negative geopotential height and temperature anomalies over the Caucasus in summer and results in reduced summer melt, such as in the early 1990s, when positive NP extremes resulted in a temporary decline in ablation rates. The positive phase of the NP is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and it is possible that a teleconnection between the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and summer air temperatures in the Caucasus is bridged through the NP pattern. More recently, the NP pattern was predominantly negative, and this distant moderating forcing on summer ablation in the Caucasus was absent. Statistically significant correlations are observed between accumulation and the Scandinavian (SCA) teleconnection pattern. The frequent occurrence of the positive SCA phase at the beginning of accumulation season results in lower than average snowfall and reduced accumulation. The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation, and accumulation is weak, although positive precipitation anomalies in the winter months are associated with the negative phase of the NAO. A stronger positive correlation is observed between accumulation on Djankuat and geopotential height over the Bay of Biscay unrelated to the established modes of the Northern Hemisphere climatic variability. These results imply that the mass balance of Djankuat is sensitive to the natural variability in the climate system. Distant forcing, however, explains only 16% of the variance in the ablation record and cannot fully explain the recent increase in ablation and negative mass balance.

Phosphorus sorption and availability in soils amended with animal manures and sewage sludge

Soils that receive large applications of animal wastes and sewage sludge are vulnerable to releasing environmentally significant concentrations of dissolved P available to subsurface flow owing to the gradual saturation of the soil's P sorption capacity. This study evaluated P sorption (calculated from Langmuir isotherms) and availability of P (as CaCl2-P and resin P) in soils incubated for 20 d with poultry litter, poultry manure, cattle slurry, municipal sewage sludge, or KH2PO4, added on a P-equivalent basis (100 mg P kg(-1)). All the P sources had a marked negative effect on P sorption and a positive effect on P availability in all soils. In the cattle slurry- and KH2PO4- treated soils, the decreases in P sorption maximum (19-66%) and binding energy (25-89%) were consistently larger than the corresponding decreases (7-41% and 11-30%) in poultry litter-, poultry manure-, and sewage sludge-treated soils. The effects of cattle slurry and KH2PO4 on P availability were, in most cases, larger than those of the other P sources. In the poultry litter, poultry manure, and sewage sludge treatments, the increase in soil solution P was inversely related (R-2 = 0.75) to the input of Ca from these relatively high Ca (13.5-42 g kg(-1)) sources. Correlation analyses implied that the magnitude of the changes in P sorption and availability was not related to the water-extractable P content of the P sources. Future research on the sustainable application of organic wastes to agricultural soils needs to consider the non-P- as well as P-containing components of the waste.

Ocean circulation and climate in an idealised Pangean OAGCM

An idealised Pangean configuration is integrated in a coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model to investigate the form of the ocean circulation and its impacts on the large scale climate system. A vigorous, hemispherically symmetric overturning is found, driven by deep water formation at high latitudes. Whilst the peak mass transport is around 100Sv, a low vertical temperature gradient in the ocean means that the maximum heat transport is only 1.2PW. The geographical change in the coupled model is found to produce a global average warming of 2°C, despite an increase in global surface albedo. This occurs through changes in the atmospheric water vapour and cloud distributions. There is also reduction in the equator-pole temperature gradient, largely attributable to the same causes, avoiding the paradox of low meridional temperature gradients without increased polar heat transport.

Life and death in a civitas capital: metabolic disease and trauma in the children from late Roman Dorchester, Dorset

The impact that “Romanization” and the development of urban centers had on the health of the Romano-British population is little understood. A re-examination of the skeletal remains of 364 nonadults from the civitas capital at Roman Dorchester (Durnovaria) in Dorset was carried out to measure the health of the children living in this small urban area. The cemetery population was divided into two groups; the first buried their dead organized within an east–west alignment with possible Christian-style graves, and the second with more varied “pagan” graves, aligned north–south. A higher prevalence of malnutrition and trauma was evident in the children from Dorchester than in any other published Romano-British group, with levels similar to those seen in postmedieval industrial communities. Cribra orbitalia was present in 38.5% of the children, with rickets and/or scurvy at 11.2%. Twelve children displayed fractures of the ribs, with 50% of cases associated with rickets and/or scurvy, suggesting that rib fractures should be considered during the diagnosis of these conditions. The high prevalence of anemia, rickets, and scurvy in the Poundbury children, and especially the infants, indicates that this community may have adopted child-rearing practices that involved fasting the newborn, a poor quality weaning diet, and swaddling, leading to general malnutrition and inadequate exposure to sunlight. The Pagan group showed no evidence of scurvy or rib fractures, indicating difference in religious and child-rearing practices but that both burial groups were equally susceptible to rickets and anemia suggests a shared poor standard of living in this urban environment.

Iron Uptake and Homeostasis in Microorganisms

Preface. Iron is considered to be a minor element employed, in a variety of forms, by nearly all living organisms. In some cases, it is utilised in large quantities, for instance for the formation of magnetosomes within magnetotactic bacteria or during use of iron as a respiratory donor or acceptor by iron oxidising or reducing bacteria. However, in most cases the role of iron is restricted to its use as a cofactor or prosthetic group assisting the biological activity of many different types of protein. The key metabolic processes that are dependent on iron as a cofactor are numerous; they include respiration, light harvesting, nitrogen fixation, the Krebs cycle, redox stress resistance, amino acid synthesis and oxygen transport. Indeed, it is clear that Life in its current form would be impossible in the absence of iron. One of the main reasons for the reliance of Life upon this metal is the ability of iron to exist in multiple redox states, in particular the relatively stable ferrous (Fe2+) and ferric (Fe3+) forms. The availability of these stable oxidation states allows iron to engage in redox reactions over a wide range of midpoint potentials, depending on the coordination environment, making it an extremely adaptable mediator of electron exchange processes. Iron is also one of the most common elements within the Earth’s crust (5% abundance) and thus is considered to have been readily available when Life evolved on our early, anaerobic planet. However, as oxygen accumulated (the ‘Great oxidation event’) within the atmosphere some 2.4 billion years ago, and as the oceans became less acidic, the iron within primordial oceans was converted from its soluble reduced form to its weakly-soluble oxidised ferric form, which precipitated (~1.8 billion years ago) to form the ‘banded iron formations’ (BIFs) observed today in Precambrian sedimentary rocks around the world. These BIFs provide a geological record marking a transition point away from the ancient anaerobic world towards modern aerobic Earth. They also indicate a period over which the bio-availability of iron shifted from abundance to limitation, a condition that extends to the modern day. Thus, it is considered likely that the vast majority of extant organisms face the common problem of securing sufficient iron from their environment – a problem that Life on Earth has had to cope with for some 2 billion years. This struggle for iron is exemplified by the competition for this metal amongst co-habiting microorganisms who resort to stealing (pirating) each others iron supplies! The reliance of micro-organisms upon iron can be disadvantageous to them, and to our innate immune system it represents a chink in the microbial armour, offering an opportunity that can be exploited to ward off pathogenic invaders. In order to infect body tissues and cause disease, pathogens must secure all their iron from the host. To fight such infections, the host specifically withdraws available iron through the action of various iron depleting processes (e.g. the release of lactoferrin and lipocalin-2) – this represents an important strategy in our defence against disease. However, pathogens are frequently able to deploy iron acquisition systems that target host iron sources such as transferrin, lactoferrin and hemoproteins, and thus counteract the iron-withdrawal approaches of the host. Inactivation of such host-targeting iron-uptake systems often attenuates the pathogenicity of the invading microbe, illustrating the importance of ‘the battle for iron’ in the infection process. The role of iron sequestration systems in facilitating microbial infections has been a major driving force in research aimed at unravelling the complexities of microbial iron transport processes. But also, the intricacy of such systems offers a challenge that stimulates the curiosity. One such challenge is to understand how balanced levels of free iron within the cytosol are achieved in a way that avoids toxicity whilst providing sufficient levels for metabolic purposes – this is a requirement that all organisms have to meet. Although the systems involved in achieving this balance can be highly variable amongst different microorganisms, the overall strategy is common. On a coarse level, the homeostatic control of cellular iron is maintained through strict control of the uptake, storage and utilisation of available iron, and is co-ordinated by integrated iron-regulatory networks. However, much yet remains to be discovered concerning the fine details of these different iron regulatory processes. As already indicated, perhaps the most difficult task in maintaining iron homeostasis is simply the procurement of sufficient iron from external sources. The importance of this problem is demonstrated by the plethora of distinct iron transporters often found within a single bacterium, each targeting different forms (complex or redox state) of iron or a different environmental condition. Thus, microbes devote considerable cellular resource to securing iron from their surroundings, reflecting how successful acquisition of iron can be crucial in the competition for survival. The aim of this book is provide the reader with an overview of iron transport processes within a range of microorganisms and to provide an indication of how microbial iron levels are controlled. This aim is promoted through the inclusion of expert reviews on several well studied examples that illustrate the current state of play concerning our comprehension of how iron is translocated into the bacterial (or fungal) cell and how iron homeostasis is controlled within microbes. The first two chapters (1-2) consider the general properties of microbial iron-chelating compounds (known as ‘siderophores’), and the mechanisms used by bacteria to acquire haem and utilise it as an iron source. The following twelve chapters (3-14) focus on specific types of microorganism that are of key interest, covering both an array of pathogens for humans, animals and plants (e.g. species of Bordetella, Shigella, , Erwinia, Vibrio, Aeromonas, Francisella, Campylobacter and Staphylococci, and EHEC) as well as a number of prominent non-pathogens (e.g. the rhizobia, E. coli K-12, Bacteroides spp., cyanobacteria, Bacillus spp. and yeasts). The chapters relay the common themes in microbial iron uptake approaches (e.g. the use of siderophores, TonB-dependent transporters, and ABC transport systems), but also highlight many distinctions (such as use of different types iron regulator and the impact of the presence/absence of a cell wall) in the strategies employed. We hope that those both within and outside the field will find this book useful, stimulating and interesting. We intend that it will provide a source for reference that will assist relevant researchers and provide an entry point for those initiating their studies within this subject. Finally, it is important that we acknowledge and thank wholeheartedly the many contributors who have provided the 14 excellent chapters from which this book is composed. Without their considerable efforts, this book, and the understanding that it relays, would not have been possible. Simon C Andrews and Pierre Cornelis

Mining, grievance and conflict in rural Tanzania

This paper provides an extended analysis of the tensions that have surfaced between large-scale mine operators and artisanal miners in gold-rich areas of rural Tanzania. The literature on grievance is used to contextualise, these disputes, the underlying cause of which is artisanal miners' mounting frustration over not being able to secure viable concessions to work. Newly implemented legislation has, for the most part, empowered foreign large-scale mine operators, while simultaneously disempowering indigenous small-scale miners. In many cases, the former have addressed mounting security and community problems on their own. Until the country's major mine operators extend assistance to marginalised small-scale mining groups, the likelihood of violent conflict unfolding between these parties will increase.