The persistence of solar activity indicators and the descent of the sun into Maunder Minimum conditions

The recent low and prolonged minimum of the solar cycle, along with the slow growth in activity of the new cycle, has led to suggestions that the Sun is entering a Grand Solar Minimum (GSMi), potentially as deep as the Maunder Minimum (MM). This raises questions about the persistence and predictability of solar activity. We study the autocorrelation functions and predictability R^2_L(t) of solar indices, particularly group sunspot number R_G and heliospheric modulation potential phi for which we have data during the descent into the MM. For R_G and phi, R^2_L (t) > 0.5 for times into the future of t = 4 and 3 solar cycles, respectively: sufficient to allow prediction of a GSMi onset. The lower predictability of sunspot number R_Z is discussed. The current declines in peak and mean R_G are the largest since the onset of the MM and exceed those around 1800 which failed to initiate a GSMi.

Conceptualizing change in the Portuguese footwear industry: regional voices and cognitive spaces of agency

Expanding national services sectors and global competition aggravate current and perceived future market pressures on traditional manufacturing industries. These perceptions of change have provoked a growing intensification of geo-political discourses on technological innovation and ‘learning’, and calls for competency in design among other professional skills. However, these political discourses on innovation and learning have paralleled public concerns with the apparent ‘growth pains’ from factory closures and subsequent increases in unemployment, and its debilitating social and economic implications for local and regional development. In this respect the following investigation sets out to conceptualize change through the complementary and differing perceptions of industry and regional actors’ experiences or narratives, linking these perceptions to their structure-determined spheres of agent-environment interactivity. It aims to determine whether agents’ differing perceptions of industry transformation can have a role in the legitimization of their interests in, and in sustaining their organizational influence over the process of industry-regional transformation. It argues that industry and regional agent perceptions are among the cognitive aspects of agent-environment interactivity that permeate agency. It stresses agents’ ability to reason and manipulate their work environments to preserve their self-regulating interests in, and task representative influence over the multi-jurisdictional space of industry-regional transformation. The contributions of this investigation suggest that agents’ varied perceptions of industry and regional change inform or compete for influence over the redirection of regional, industry and business strategies. This claim offers a greater appreciation for the reflexive and complex institutional dimensions of industry planning and development, and the political responsibility to socially just forms of regional development. It positions the outcomes of this investigation at the nexus of intensifying geo-political discourses on the efficiency and equity of territorial development in Europe.

A wide-angle X-ray study of the development of molecular orientation in crosslinked natural rubber

Molecular orientation parameters have been measured for the non-crystalline component of crosslinked natural rubber samples deformed in uniaxial tension as a function of the extension ratio and of temperature. The orientation parapeters 〈P2(cosα)〉 and 〈P4(cosα)〉 were obtained by an analysis of the anisotropy of the wide-angle X-ray scattering functions. For the measurements made at high temperatures the level of crystallinity detected was negligible and the orientation-strain behaviour could be compared directly with the predictions of molecular models of rubber elasticity. The molecular orientation behaviour with strain was found to be at variance with the estimates of the affine model particularly at low and moderate strains. Extension of the crosslinked rubber at room temperature led to strain-crystallization and measurements of both the molecular orientation of the non-crystalline chains and the degree of crystallinity during extension and relaxation enabled the role of the crystallites in the deformation process to be considered in detail. The intrinsic birefringence of the non-crystalline component was estimated, through the use of the 〈P2(cosα)〉 values obtained from X-ray scattering measurements, to be 0.20±0.02.

The MaPS project: mapping teacher conceptions of musical development

The chapter starts from the premise that an historically- and institutionally-formed orientation to music education at primary level in European countries privileges a nineteenth century Western European music aesthetic, with its focus on formal characteristics such as melody and rhythm. While there is a move towards a multi-faceted understanding of musical ability, a discrete intelligence and willingness to accept musical styles or 'open-earedness', there remains a paucity of documented evidence of this in research at primary school level. To date there has been no study undertaken which has the potential to provide policy makers and practitioners with insights into the degree of homogeneity or universality in conceptions of musical ability within this educational sector. Against this background, a study was set up to explore the following research questions: 1. What conceptions of musical ability do primary teachers hold a) of themselves and; b) of their pupils? 2. To what extent are these conceptions informed by Western classical practices? A mixed methods approach was used which included survey questionnaire and semi-structured interview. Questionnaires have been sent to all classroom teachers in a random sample of primary schools in the South East of England. This was followed up with a series of semi-structured interviews with a sub-sample of respondents. The main ideas are concerned with the attitudes, beliefs and working theories held by teachers in contemporary primary school settings. By mapping the extent to which a knowledge base for teaching can be resistant to change in schools, we can problematise primary schools as sites for diversity and migration of cultural ideas. Alongside this, we can use the findings from the study undertaken in an English context as a starting point for further investigation into conceptions of music, musical ability and assessment held by practitioners in a variety of primary school contexts elsewhere in Europe; our emphasis here will be on the development of shared understanding in terms of policies and practices in music education. Within this broader framework, our study can have a significant impact internationally, with potential to inform future policy making, curriculum planning and practice.

Review of the formulation of present‐generation stratospheric chemistry‐climate models and associated external forcings

The goal of the Chemistry‐Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) activity is to improve understanding of chemistry‐climate models (CCMs) through process‐oriented evaluation and to provide reliable projections of stratospheric ozone and its impact on climate. An appreciation of the details of model formulations is essential for understanding how models respond to the changing external forcings of greenhouse gases and ozonedepleting substances, and hence for understanding the ozone and climate forecasts produced by the models participating in this activity. Here we introduce and review the models used for the second round (CCMVal‐2) of this intercomparison, regarding the implementation of chemical, transport, radiative, and dynamical processes in these models. In particular, we review the advantages and problems associated with approaches used to model processes of relevance to stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. Furthermore, we state the definitions of the reference simulations performed, and describe the forcing data used in these simulations. We identify some developments in chemistry‐climate modeling that make models more physically based or more comprehensive, including the introduction of an interactive ocean, online photolysis, troposphere‐stratosphere chemistry, and non‐orographic gravity‐wave deposition as linked to tropospheric convection. The relatively new developments indicate that stratospheric CCM modeling is becoming more consistent with our physically based understanding of the atmosphere.

Star/poverty space: the making of the ‘development celebrity’

What is it that gives celebrities the voice and authority to do and say the things they do in the realm of development politics? Asked another way, how is celebrity practised and, simultaneously, how does this praxis make celebrity, personas, politics and, indeed, celebrities themselves? In this article, we explore this ‘celebrity praxis’ through the lens of the creation of the contemporary ‘development celebrity’ in those stars working for development writ large in the so-called Third World. Drawing on work in science studies, material cultures and the growing geo-socio-anthropologies of things, the key to understanding the material practices embedded in and creating development celebrity networks is the multiple and complex circulations of the everyday and bespectacled artefacts of celebrity. Conceptualised as the ‘celebrity–consumption–compassion complex’, the performances of development celebrities are as much about everyday events, materials, technologies, emotions and consumer acts as they are about the mediated and liquidised constructions of the stars who now ‘market’ development.Moreover, this complex is constructed by and constructs what we are calling ‘star/poverty space’ that works to facilitate the ‘expertise’ and ‘authenticity’ and, thus, elevated voice and authority, of development celebrities through poverty tours, photoshoots, textual and visual diaries, websites and tweets. In short, the creation of star/poverty space is performed through a kind of ‘materiality of authenticity’ that is at the centre of the networks of development celebrity. The article concludes with several brief observations about the politics, possibilities and problematics of development celebrities and the star/poverty spaces that they create.

The role of UK development industry in Brownfield regeneration Vol 1

As part of the SUBR:IM work (www.subrim.org.uk) being undertaken at The College, the research team for this project (Tim Dixon, Yasmin Pocock and Mike Waters) has produced the first two of three volumes covering Stage 2 of the research. Volume 1 examines the results from the national UK developer interviews (carried out in 2004-2005); National Land Use Database (NLUD) analysis (1998-2003); and residential planning permission analysis for Salford/Manchester and Barking & Dagenham (2000-2004) using Estates Gazette Interactive (EGi) data and published information. Volume 1 (of 3): Literature Review, National Developer Interviews, Planning Permission Analysis and NLUD Analysis

The role of UK development industry in Brownfield regeneration Vol 2

As part of the SUBR:IM work (www.subrim.org.uk) being undertaken at The College, the research team for this project (Tim Dixon, Yasmin Pocock and Mike Waters) has produced the first two of three volumes covering Stage 2 of the research. Volume 1 examines the results from the national UK developer interviews (carried out in 2004-2005); National Land Use Database (NLUD) analysis (1998-2003); and residential planning permission analysis for Salford/Manchester and Barking & Dagenham (2000-2004) using Estates Gazette Interactive (EGi) data and published information. Volume 2 covers the sub-regional context for Thames Gateway and Greater Manchester, which form the basis for the case studies (these are to be published as Volume 3 Volume 2 (of 3): Sub-regional context (Thames Gateway and Greater Manchester)

Multi-criteria analysis and the resolution of sustainable development dilemmas: a stakeholder management approach

We demonstrate that stakeholder-oriented multi-criteria analysis (MCA) can adequately address a variety of sustainable development dilemmas in decision-making, especially when applied to complex project evaluations involving multiple objectives and multiple stakeholder groups. Such evaluations are typically geared towards satisfying simultaneously private economic goals, broader social objectives and environmental targets. We show that, under specific conditions, a variety of stakeholder-oriented MCA approaches may be able to contribute substantively to the resolution or improved governance of societal conflicts and the pursuit of the public good in the form of sustainable development. We contrast the potential usefulness of these stakeholder-oriented approaches – in terms of their ability to contribute to sustainable development – with more conventional MCA approaches and social cost–benefit analysis.

Three dimensional analysis of cardiovascular development in mouse embryos using X-ray microcomputed tomography

Micro-computed tomography (μCT) has been successfully used to study the cardiovascular system of mouse embryos in situ. With the use of barium as a suitable contrast agent, blood vessels have been imaged and analysed quantitatively such as blood volume and vessel sizes on embryos of ages 14.5 to 16.5 days old. The advantage of using this imaging modality is that it has provided three dimensional information whilst leaving samples intact for further study.

Formulation of fermentation media from flour-rich waste streams for microbial lipid production by Lipomyces starkeyi

Flour-rich waste (FRW) and by-product streams generated by bakery, confectionery and wheat milling plants could be employed as the sole raw materials for generic fermentation media production, suitable for microbial oil synthesis. Wheat milling by-products were used in solid state fermentations (SSF) of Aspergillus awamori for the production of crude enzymes, mainly glucoamylase and protease. Enzyme-rich SSF solids were subsequently employed for hydrolysis of FRW streams into nutrient-rich fermentation media. Batch hydrolytic experiments using FRW concentrations up to 205 g/L resulted in higher than 90%(w/w) starch to glucose conversion yields and 40% (w/w) total Kjeldahl nitrogen to free amino nitro-gen conversion yields. Starch to glucose conversion yields of 98.2, 86.1 and 73.4% (w/w) were achieved when initial FRW concentrations of 235, 300 and 350 g/L were employed in fed-batch hydrolytic experiments, respectively. Crude hydrolysates were used as fermentation media in shake flask cultures with the oleaginous yeast Lipomyces starkeyi DSM 70296 reaching a total dry weight of 30.5 g/L with a microbial oil content of 40.4% (w/w), higher than that achieved in synthetic media. Fed-batch bioreactor cultures led to a total dry weight of 109.8 g/L with a microbial oil content of 57.8% (w/w) and productivity of 0.4 g/L/h.