The simulation of the opposing fluxes of latent heat and CO2 over various land-use types: coupling a gas exchange model to a mesoscale atmospheric model

A mesoscale meteorological model (FOOT3DK) is coupled with a gas exchange model to simulate surface fluxes of CO2 and H2O under field conditions. The gas exchange model consists of a C3 single leaf photosynthesis sub-model and an extended big leaf (sun/shade) sub-model that divides the canopy into sunlit and shaded fractions. Simulated CO2 fluxes of the stand-alone version of the gas exchange model correspond well to eddy-covariance measurements at a test site in a rural area in the west of Germany. The coupled FOOT3DK/gas exchange model is validated for the diurnal cycle at singular grid points, and delivers realistic fluxes with respect to their order of magnitude and to the general daily course. Compared to the Jarvis-based big leaf scheme, simulations of latent heat fluxes with a photosynthesis-based scheme for stomatal conductance are more realistic. As expected, flux averages are strongly influenced by the underlying land cover. While the simulated net ecosystem exchange is highly correlated with leaf area index, this correlation is much weaker for the latent heat flux. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake is associated with transpirational water loss via the stomata, and the resulting opposing surface fluxes of CO2 and H2O are reproduced with the model approach. Over vegetated surfaces it is shown that the coupling of a photosynthesis-based gas exchange model with the land-surface scheme of a mesoscale model results in more realistic simulated latent heat fluxes.

Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns

A climatology of cyclones with a focus on their relation to wind storm tracks in the Mediterranean region (MR) is presented. Trends in the frequency of cyclones and wind storms, as well as variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic/West Russian (EAWR) and the Scandinavian variability pattern (SCAND) are discussed. The study is based on the ERA40 reanalysis dataset. Wind storm tracks are identified by tracking clusters of adjacent grid boxes characterised by extremely high local wind speeds. The wind track is assigned to a cyclone track independently identified with an objective scheme. Areas with high wind activity – quantified by extreme wind tracks – are typically located south of the Golf of Genoa, south of Cyprus, southeast of Sicily and west of the Iberian Peninsula. About 69% of the wind storms are caused by cyclones located in the Mediterranean region, while the remaining 31% can be attributed to North Atlantic or Northern European cyclones. The North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern all influence the amount and spatial distribution of wind inducing cyclones and wind events in the MR. The strongest signals exist for the NAO and the EAWR pattern, which are both associated with an increase in the number of organised strong wind events in the eastern MR during their positive phase. On the other hand, the storm numbers decrease over the western MR for the positive phase of the NAO and over the central MR during the positive phase of the EAWR pattern. The positive phase of the Scandinavian pattern is associated with a decrease in the number of winter wind storms over most of the MR. A third of the trends in the number of wind storms and wind producing cyclones during the winter season of the ERA40 period may be attributed to the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Autistic traits modulate mimicry of social but not nonsocial rewards

Autism Spectrum Conditions (ASC) are associated with diminished responsiveness to social stimuli, and especially to social rewards such as smiles. Atypical responsiveness to social rewards, which reinforce socially appropriate behavior in children, can potentially lead to a cascade of deficits in social behavior. Individuals with ASC often show diminished spontaneous mimicry of social stimuli in a natural setting. In the general population, mimicry is modulated both by the reward value and the sociality of the stimulus (i.e., whether the stimulus is perceived to belong to a conspecific or an inanimate object). Since empathy and autistic traits are distributed continuously in the general population, this study aimed to test if and how these traits modulated automatic mimicry of rewarded social and nonsocial stimuli. High and low rewards were associated with human and robot hands using a conditioned learning paradigm. Thirty-six participants from the general population then completed a mimicry task involving performing a prespecified hand movement which was either compatible or incompatible with a hand movement presented to the participant. High autistic traits (measured using the Autism Spectrum Quotient, AQ) predicted lesser mimicry of high-reward than low-reward conditioned human hands, whereas trait empathy showed an opposite pattern of correlations. No such relations were observed for high-reward vs. low-reward conditioned robot hands. These results demonstrate how autistic traits and empathy modulate the effects of reward on mimicry of social compared to nonsocial stimuli. This evidence suggests a potential role for the reward system in underlying the atypical social behavior in individuals with ASC, who constitute the extreme end of the spectrum of autistic traits.

The influence of stratospheric vortex displacements and splits on surface climate

A strong link exists between stratospheric variability and anomalous weather patterns at the earth’s surface. Specifically, during extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex termed a “weak vortex event,” anomalies can descend from the upper stratosphere to the surface on time scales of weeks. Subsequently the outbreak of cold-air events have been noted in high northern latitudes, as well as a quadrupole pattern in surface temperature over the Atlantic and western European sectors, but it is currently not understood why certain events descend to the surface while others do not. This study compares a new classification technique of weak vortex events, based on the distribution of potential vorticity, with that of an existing technique and demonstrates that the subdivision of such events into vortex displacements and vortex splits has important implications for tropospheric weather patterns on weekly to monthly time scales. Using reanalysis data it is found that vortex splitting events are correlated with surface weather and lead to positive temperature anomalies over eastern North America of more than 1.5 K, and negative anomalies over Eurasia of up to −3 K. Associated with this is an increase in high-latitude blocking in both the Atlantic and Pacific sectors and a decrease in European blocking. The corresponding signals are weaker during displacement events, although ultimately they are shown to be related to cold-air outbreaks over North America. Because of the importance of stratosphere–troposphere coupling for seasonal climate predictability, identifying the type of stratospheric variability in order to capture the correct surface response will be necessary.

Improved evaporative flux partitioning and carbon flux in the land surface model JULES: impact on the simulation of land surface processes in temperate Europe

The primary role of land surface models embedded in climate models is to partition surface available energy into upwards, radiative, sensible and latent heat fluxes. Partitioning of evapotranspiration, ET, is of fundamental importance: as a major component of the total surface latent heat flux, ET affects the simulated surface water balance, and related energy balance, and consequently the feedbacks with the atmosphere. In this context it is also crucial to credibly represent the CO2 exchange between ecosystems and their environment. In this study, JULES, the land surface model used in UK weather and climate models, has been evaluated for temperate Europe. Compared to eddy covariance flux measurements, the CO2 uptake by the ecosystem is underestimated and the ET overestimated. In addition, the contribution to ET from soil and intercepted water evaporation far outweighs the contribution of plant transpiration. To alleviate these biases, adaptations have been implemented in JULES, based on key literature references. These adaptations have improved the simulation of the spatio-temporal variability of the fluxes and the accuracy of the simulated GPP and ET, including its partitioning. This resulted in a shift of the seasonal soil moisture cycle. These adaptations are expected to increase the fidelity of climate simulations over Europe. Finally, the extreme summer of 2003 was used as evaluation benchmark for the use of the model in climate change studies. The improved model captures the impact of the 2003 drought on the carbon assimilation and the water use efficiency of the plants. It, however, underestimates the 2003 GPP anomalies. The simulations showed that a reduction of evaporation from the interception and soil reservoirs, albeit not of transpiration, largely explained the good correlation between the carbon and the water fluxes anomalies that was observed during 2003. This demonstrates the importance of being able to discriminate the response of individual component of the ET flux to environmental forcing.

Archaeological evidence for a previously unrecognised Roman town near the Sea of Galilee

Fieldwalking in the Ginosar valley recorded an extensive spread of Late Hellenistic, Roman-period and Byzantine ceramics, tesserae, glass shards, and stone vessel fragments. Architectural stonework in modern Migdal, on the hilltop immediately west of this, seems, in part, to derive from the same site, which extended into the area of the present town. This suggests an urban centre immediately adjacent to, but probably separate from, the Roman-period site usually identified asMagdala, providing a context for the first-century boat currently displayed in the Yigdal Allon museum. The settlement may be identified with one of the un-located toponyms of the coast.

Meta-analysis of the INSIG2 association with obesity including 74,345 individuals: does heterogeneity of estimates relate to study design?

The INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphism was identified for obesity (BMI> or =30 kg/m(2)) in one of the first genome-wide association studies, but replications were inconsistent. We collected statistics from 34 studies (n = 74,345), including general population (GP) studies, population-based studies with subjects selected for conditions related to a better health status ('healthy population', HP), and obesity studies (OB). We tested five hypotheses to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. The meta-analysis of 27 studies on Caucasian adults (n = 66,213) combining the different study designs did not support overall association of the CC-genotype with obesity, yielding an odds ratio (OR) of 1.05 (p-value = 0.27). The I(2) measure of 41% (p-value = 0.015) indicated between-study heterogeneity. Restricting to GP studies resulted in a declined I(2) measure of 11% (p-value = 0.33) and an OR of 1.10 (p-value = 0.015). Regarding the five hypotheses, our data showed (a) some difference between GP and HP studies (p-value = 0.012) and (b) an association in extreme comparisons (BMI> or =32.5, 35.0, 37.5, 40.0 kg/m(2) versus BMI<25 kg/m(2)) yielding ORs of 1.16, 1.18, 1.22, or 1.27 (p-values 0.001 to 0.003), which was also underscored by significantly increased CC-genotype frequencies across BMI categories (10.4% to 12.5%, p-value for trend = 0.0002). We did not find evidence for differential ORs (c) among studies with higher than average obesity prevalence compared to lower, (d) among studies with BMI assessment after the year 2000 compared to those before, or (e) among studies from older populations compared to younger. Analysis of non-Caucasian adults (n = 4889) or children (n = 3243) yielded ORs of 1.01 (p-value = 0.94) or 1.15 (p-value = 0.22), respectively. There was no evidence for overall association of the rs7566605 polymorphism with obesity. Our data suggested an association with extreme degrees of obesity, and consequently heterogeneous effects from different study designs may mask an underlying association when unaccounted for. The importance of study design might be under-recognized in gene discovery and association replication so far.

An experimental test of response consistency in contingent valuation

We compare hypothetical and observed (experimental) willingness to pay (WTP) for a gradual improvement in the environmental performance of a marketed good (an office table). First, following usual practices in marketing research, subjects’ stated WTP for the improvement is obtained. Second, the same subjects participate in a real reward experiment designed to replicate the scenario valued in the hypothetical question. Our results show that, independently of the degree of the improvement, there are no significant median differences between stated and experimental data. However, subjects reporting extreme values of WTP (low or high) exhibit a more moderate behavior in the experiment.

Development of convection along the SPCZ within a Madden-Julian oscillation

A subtropical Rossby-wave propagation mechanism is proposed to account for the poleward and eastward progression of intraseasonal convective anomalies along the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) that is observed in a significant proportion of Madden–Julian oscillations (MJOs). Large-scale convection, associated with an MJO, is assumed to be already established over the Indonesian region. The latent heating associated with this convection forces an equatorial Rossby-wave response with an upper-tropospheric anticyclone centred over, or slightly to the west of, the convection. Large potential-vorticity (PV) gradients, associated with the subtropical jet and the tropopause, lie just poleward of the anticyclone, and large magnitude PV air is advected equatorwards on the eastern side of the anticyclone. This ‘high’ PV air, or upper-tropospheric trough, is far enough off the equator that it has associated strong horizontal temperature gradients, and it induces deep ascent on its eastern side, at a latitude of about 15–30°. If this deep ascent is over a region susceptible to deep convection, such as the SPCZ, then convection may be forced or triggered. Hence convection develops along the SPCZ as a forced response to convection over Indonesia. The response mechanism is essentially one of subtropical Rossby-wave propagation. This hypothesis is based on a case study of a particularly strong MJO in early 1988, and is tested by idealized modelling studies. The mechanism may also be relevant to the existence of the mean SPCZ, as a forced response to mean Indonesian convection.

Palaeovegetation in China during the late Quaternary: Biome reconstructions based on a global scheme of plant functional types

Two previous reconstructions of palaeovegetation across the whole of China were performed using a simple classification of plant functional types (PFTs). Now a more explicit, global PFT classification scheme has been developed, and a substantial number of additional pollen records have become available. Here we apply the global scheme of PFTs to a comprehensive set of pollen records available from China to test the applicability of the global scheme of PFTs in China, and to obtain a well-founded reconstruction of changing palaeovegetation patterns. A total of 806 pollen surface samples, 188 mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 14C yr BP) and 50 last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr BP) pollen records were used to reconstruct vegetation patterns in China, based on a new global classification system of PFTs and a standard numerical technique for biome assignment (biomization). The biome reconstruction based on pollen surface samples showed convincing agreement with present potential natural vegetation. Coherent patterns of change in biome distribution between MH, LGM and present are observed. In the MH, cold and cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forests and mixed forests, temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were shifted northward by 200–500 km. Cold-deciduous forest in northeastern China was replaced by cold evergreen needleleaf forest while in central northern China, cold-deciduous forest was present at some sites now occupied by temperate grassland and desert. The forest–grassland boundary was 200–300 km west of its present position. Temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert covered a large area on the Tibetan Plateau, but the area of tundra was reduced. Treeline was 300–500 m higher than present in Tibet. These changes imply generally warmer winters, longer growing seasons and more precipitation during the MH. Westward shifts of the forest–shrubland–grassland and grassland–desert boundaries imply greater moisture availability in the MH, consistent with a stronger summer monsoon. During the LGM, in contrast, cold-deciduous forest, cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forest, cool mixed forests, warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were displaced to the south by 300–1000 km, while temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, pure warm-temperate evergreen forest, tropical semi-evergreen and evergreen broadleaf forests were restricted or absent from the mainland of southern China, implying colder winters than present. Strong shifts of temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert to the south and east in northern and western China and on the Tibetan Plateau imply drier conditions than present.

Towards a resolution of ‘the paradox of the plankton’: a brief overview of the proposed mechanisms

In plankton ecology, it is a fundamental question as to how a large number of competing phytoplankton species coexist in marine ecosystems under a seemingly-limited variety of resources. This ever-green question was first proposed by Hutchinson [Hutchinson, G.E., 1961. The paradox of the plankton. Am. Nat. 95, 137–145] as ‘the paradox of the plankton’. Starting from Hutchinson [Hutchinson, G.E., 1961. The paradox of the plankton. Am. Nat. 95, 137–145], over more than four decades several investigators have put forward varieties of mechanisms for the extreme diversity of phytoplankton species. In this article, within the boundary of our knowledge, we review the literature of the proposed solutions and give a brief overview of the mechanisms proposed so far. The proposed mechanisms that we discuss mainly include spatial and temporal heterogeneity in physical and biological environment, externally imposed or self-generated spatial segregation, horizontal mesoscale turbulence of ocean characterized by coherent vortices, oscillation and chaos generated by several internal and external causes, stable coexistence and compensatory dynamics under fluctuating temperature in resource competition, and finally the role of toxin-producing phytoplankton in maintaining the coexistence and biodiversity of the overall plankton population that we have proposed recently. We find that, although the different mechanisms proposed so far is potentially applicable to specific ecosystems, a universally accepted theory for explaining plankton diversity in natural waters is still an unachieved goal.

Impacts of plant-based foods in ancestral hominin diets on the metabolism and function of gut microbiota in vitro

Ancestral human populations had diets containing more indigestible plant material than present-day diets in industrialized countries. One hypothesis for the rise in prevalence of obesity is that physiological mechanisms for controlling appetite evolved to match a diet with plant fiber content higher than that of present-day diets. We investigated how diet affects gut microbiota and colon cells by comparing human microbial communities with those from a primate that has an extreme plant-based diet, namely, the gelada baboon, which is a grazer. The effects of potato (high starch) versus grass (high lignin and cellulose) diets on human-derived versus gelada-derived fecal communities were compared in vitro. We especially focused on the production of short-chain fatty acids, which are hypothesized to be key metabolites influencing appetite regulation pathways. The results confirmed that diet has a major effect on bacterial numbers, short-chain fatty acid production, and the release of hormones involved in appetite suppression. The potato diet yielded greater production of short-chain fatty acids and hormone release than the grass diet, even in the gelada cultures, which we had expected should be better adapted to the grass diet. The strong effects of diet on hormone release could not be explained, however, solely by short-chain fatty acid concentrations. Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy found changes in additional metabolites, including betaine and isoleucine, that might play key roles in inhibiting and stimulating appetite suppression pathways. Our study results indicate that a broader array of metabolites might be involved in triggering gut hormone release in humans than previously thought. IMPORTANCE: One theory for rising levels of obesity in western populations is that the body's mechanisms for controlling appetite evolved to match ancestral diets with more low-energy plant foods. We investigated this idea by comparing the effects of diet on appetite suppression pathways via the use of gut bacterial communities from humans and gelada baboons, which are modern-day primates with an extreme diet of low-energy plant food, namely, grass. We found that diet does play a major role in affecting gut bacteria and the production of a hormone that suppresses appetite but not in the direction predicted by the ancestral diet hypothesis. Also, bacterial products were correlated with hormone release that were different from those normally thought to play this role. By comparing microbiota and diets outside the natural range for modern humans, we found a relationship between diet and appetite pathways that was more complex than previously hypothesized on the basis of more-controlled studies of the effects of single compounds.

Review: the predictability of the extra-tropical stratosphere on monthly timescales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts

Extreme variability of the winter- and spring-time stratospheric polar vortex has been shown to affect extratropical tropospheric weather. Therefore, reducing stratospheric forecast error may be one way to improve the skill of tropospheric weather forecasts. In this review, the basis for this idea is examined. A range of studies of different stratospheric extreme vortex events shows that they can be skilfully forecasted beyond five days and into the sub-seasonal range (0-30 days) in some cases. Separate studies show that typical errors in forecasting a stratospheric extreme vortex event can alter tropospheric forecasts skill by 5-7% in the extratropics on sub-seasonal timescales. Thus understanding what limits stratospheric predictability is of significant interest to operational forecasting centres. Both limitations in forecasting tropospheric planetary waves and stratospheric model biases have been shown to be important in this context.

In silico identification and three-dimensional modelling of the missense mutation in ADAMTS2 in a sheep flock with dermatosparaxis

Background Dermatosparaxis (Ehlers–Danlos syndrome in humans) is characterized by extreme fragility of the skin. It is due to the lack of mature collagen caused by a failure in the enzymatic processing of procollagen I. We investigated the condition in a commercial sheep flock. Hypothesis/Objectives Mutations in the ADAM metallopeptidase with thrombospondin type 1 motif, 2 (ADAMTS2) locus, are involved in the development of dermatosparaxis in humans, cattle and the dorper sheep breed; consequently, this locus was investigated in the flock. Animals A single affected lamb, its dam, the dam of a second affected lamb and the rams in the flock were studied. Methods DNA was purified from blood, PCR primers were used to detect parts of the ADAMS2 gene and nucleotide sequencing was performed using Sanger's procedure. Skin samples were examined using standard histology procedures. Results A missense mutation was identified in the catalytic domain of ADAMTS2. The mutation is predicted to cause the substitution in the mature ADAMTS2 of a valine molecule by a methionine molecule (V15M) affecting the catalytic domain of the enzyme. Both the ‘sorting intolerant from tolerant’ (SIFT) and the PolyPhen-2 methodologies predicted a damaging effect for the mutation. Three-dimensional modelling suggested that this mutation may alter the stability of the protein folding or distort the structure, causing the protein to malfunction. Conclusions and clinical importance Detection of the mutation responsible for the pathology allowed us to remove the heterozygote ram, thus preventing additional cases in the flock.

The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part II: Processes leading to differences in MJO development

High-resolution simulations over a large tropical domain (∼20◦S–20◦N and 42◦E–180◦E) using both explicit and parameterized convection are analyzed and compared during a 10-day case study of an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. In Part II, the moisture budgets and moist entropy budgets are analyzed. Vertical subgrid diabatic heating profiles and vertical velocity profiles are also compared; these are related to the horizontal and vertical advective components of the moist entropy budget which contribute to gross moist stability, GMS, and normalized GMS (NGMS). The 4-km model with explicit convection and good MJO performance has a vertical heating structure that increases with height in the lower troposphere in regions of strong convection (like observations), whereas the 12-km model with parameterized convection and a poor MJO does not show this relationship. The 4-km explicit convection model also has a more top-heavy heating profile for the troposphere as a whole near and to the west of the active MJO-related convection, unlike the 12-km parameterized convection model. The dependence of entropy advection components on moisture convergence is fairly weak in all models, and differences between models are not always related to MJO performance, making comparisons to previous work somewhat inconclusive. However, models with relatively good MJO strength and propagation have a slightly larger increase of the vertical advective component with increasing moisture convergence, and their NGMS vertical terms have more variability in time and longitude, with total NGMS that is comparatively larger to the west and smaller to the east.